WINNO'S WINNERS - DOOMBEN, MAY 20
By Darren Winningham | Friday, May 19, 2017
Last week WINNO jagged a few winners and was able to tip Kerrin McEvoy in the jockeys challenge – so something for the punters!
This week we are back at Doomben. The track is currently rated “SOFT” and the rail is 2.5metres out the entire circuit. There is a rain event forecasted in South East Queensland from Thursday through to the weekend. It may be well worth while to reassess closer to the meeting.
This week we have the time honoured Doomben Cup as the feature race – what a great field!
I did manage to give you a good leg up for the Kiwi Shocking Luck last weekend for the Derby when I suggested you take the $14 in the Queensland Derby prior to the victory last weekend – now after that blistering performance you will be lucky to secure $6 in the markets. I hope that you got some of those good odds that were on offer.
Well this weekend I have looked for horses that can handle wet conditions again – and I think this week we will see the jockeys scouting a little wider off the rail than what they did last weekend.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The opening race on Doomben Cup day – an open field as well with no real standout bet here. So I am treading carefully here this weekend.
Blackjack Bella (7) - David Vandyke has been placing his horses lately when they come to town – so I am taking the lead here on this one. Kerrin McEvoy up and some noted soft track form the five year old mare will do me.
Doomben 10,000 winning jockey Jim Byrne takes the ride on Heart of a Warrior (3) for the Tony Gollan team. I think the run first up at Eagle Farm was only fair – but it may pay to overlook the run and note that he has reasonable form second up and over the mile distance. Jim is in great form as well. Maybe he will be able to lift this one over the line in the first.
The Ben Currie trained Gully Command (6) has some good wet weather form and can be ridden on the speed which may be a distinct advantage here this weekend if he is able to dictate terms in front and get away with some cheap sectionals.
American Diva (8) trained by John Smerdon on the Gold Coast was sensationally backed last start when she had a hit and run mission at Wagga Wagga. She also has some good wet weather form but her style of racing may not be suited here this weekend as she normally drops out and flies home late. I can remember her maiden win in 2016 over the Grafton Carnival when she sprouted wings and flew home to win easily. If there is speed on she will be flashing home late – I just hope not too late!
Selections: 7-3-6-8 rough chance 2
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Race 2
The two year old race for the day – it is not an overly exciting field.
Allied Power (2) trained by Peter and Paul Snowden won well last start at Gosford in maiden company. Prior to that the colt had been racing in some superior class races without much luck. I am suggesting that now he has got that winning experience he may well go on with the job – he does have some dubious form on soft and heavy tracks and that is the only concern here.
The locally trained Dream Kisses (9), trained by Steven O’Dea, comes into this race with some good form. You should forget about the last start failure at Eagle Farm on a heavy track where nothing really made any ground from the rear and go on her solid form over the summer months in 2016. This weekend she gets her chance to show how good she is – one to watch for mine.
Cabin Fever (11), trained by Gillian Heinrich & Ben Rodgers on the Gold Coast, ran a super race in the Ken Russell Memorial race a fortnight ago when beaten narrowly by 1.9 lengths by Taking Aim – a solid performance for a race like this. She will get back and will run home late.
The Chris Munce trained Skate to Paris (12) has put in two good performances since resuming from a spell. I see that Munce has given her a solid barrier trial on Tuesday (16/5) this week where she won well with Larry Cassidy aboard. Blinkers go on this filly for the first time in a race – looked for an improved and competitive performance this weekend.
Selections: 2-9-12-11 rough chance 5
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Race 3
What a great field assembled here for this sprint race.
I cannot go past Prompt Return (4) after his great win first up in the Bat Out Of Hell at the Gold Coast a couple of weeks ago.
He has a great second up record, he likes a soft track and Winno thinks he looked like he had plenty of improvement left in him after his big win at the Gold Coast. He looks a good bet here this weekend!
Toby Edmonds has another one of his team engaged here – The Virginian (8). He went to Melbourne for the Spring Carnival and suffered an injury. He has been out for a while, however he has been well prepared for this first up assignment this weekend with two solid barrier trials. In his last trial at Deagon he won well on a heavy track. He is only lightly races – oozes class and watch out for a dynamite run here this weekend. It will be interesting to see where he heads to after this run – he did run 3rd in the 2016 Stradbroke. I know the stable has some wraps on this one – I hope he comes back and performs well after the setback last year.
The NSW invader Tempt Me Not (7) has drawn poorly in barrier 14. She is trained by James Cummings and I note that Glyn Schofield is coming to ride her this weekend. He has a good record on the mare with 2 wins and 3 placings from 9 starts. She has had a solid hit out in a barrier trial on Friday 28 April at Randwick and won easily. She looks well in here – shame about the barrier.
Another one from NSW Mr Manhattan (5), trained by Joseph Pride, does race well fantastic fresh – first up 3 wins and 2 second from 5 starts is something that should be noted in this field. He is also undefeated from 3 starts second up – so keep that in mind for his next run over the Carnival.
My Sydney spies tell me he has been working well and won a recent trial at Kembla Grange with Corey Brown aboard. Corey must have an opinion of this one as he has chased the ride to Doomben.
Misery (12) has come back with two successive wins for the Darren Bell stables – Tiffani Brooker stays on him again this weekend. He is up in grade but I think he is a genuine roughie here in the field.
I did actually think that the horse was named after Sky Channel’s resident Brisbane race caller – Mr Josh Fleming – as he is in “misery” after Winno has taken a 3 – 0 lead in our Carnival tipping competition. I think he should be made wear a NSW cap whilst doing his tips if I beat him again this week! I know he has previously said “I would rather drink acid” – but looks like NSW is dominating at the races so far this year and hopefully will in the 2017 State of Origin series that is upon us!
Selections: 4-7-8-5 rough chance 12
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Race 4
This race is at set weights with good quality three year olds – we may see something special here this weekend.
I am liking the James Cummings trained Tactical Advantage (1) – comes off a six week break but has recently barrier trialled nicely at Randwick. He has been racing in Group company as well and drops back to his own age here.
He has drawn barrier 2, has the services of Glyn Schofield who has a unique record on the gelding with 5 rides, 4 wins and 1 third placing. I don’t think you can overlook these stats here this week. I am excited about this one – he looks to be all class! There are some nice early odds as well at $4.60 on offer about this one.
The logical danger is the recent Gold Coast Guineas winner Savanna Amour (9). I would note that the filly has a poor second up record with no placings or wins in two starts – however; in both of these starts she has been unlucky. Maybe this weekend she will be able to overcome this history and post a win. Ronnie Stewart rode this one a treat last start at the Gold Coast when she scampered home in a blanket finish. The Gold Coast Guineas form may be something to follow this week and in coming weeks. It was a high rating race.
That being said Tiyatrolani (10) was one of these runners that was swamped in the shadows of the post at the Gold Coast. She does have a poor third up record but I can confidently say you should overlook this record as in each of them starts she was unlucky in so many ways – again, maybe she can step up here, drawn handy in barrier 4 and should be placed in a forward position by Jim Byrne.
An interesting runner is Inspired Estelle (15) who has been transferred from the Mick Price stables in Victoria to Toby Edmonds on the Gold Coast. This one has run in some listed company and has performed well. I have received no mail from my Gold Coast spies about this one. I am just putting it in as a chance as you much respect the Edmonds/Lloyd dynamic duo when they pair up!
Selections: 1-9-10-15 rough chance 17
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Race 5
The first leg of the Quaddie this weekend – a tough affair as well!
Some of the genuine chances hear are drawn wide and can race off the speed and will probably need some luck.
I originally thought that the Kris Lees trained mare, Brook Road (1), was a genuine chance here but she has had no placings in the last 12 months in her 7 starts. So I have gone away from her.
Untamed Diamond (5) has been seriously backed here to win this race – currently been smashed from $7 into $3.80 since the markets have opened – they just keep coming for this one.
Madotti (3) didn’t fare all that well in the barrier draw last start at the Gold Coast and really had no luck and got too far back. I think you can confidently overlook that run, however, this weekend she has drawn barrier 13 here and she will not appreciate heavy going either so keep your eye on the weather and track rating!
The Chris Anderson trained Elegant Composure (7) was sent out favourite last start in the Gold Coast Silk Stocking. I think the run was above average and just could not reel in the leader , With A Promise (6), who was rated well in front by Josh Oliver and saluted at the salubrious odds of $81. I think with that run under her belt and a good second up record she will be hard to toss here this week. She does prefer the sting out of the track and races well at Doomben.
Bonny O’Reilly (12) has drawn terrible in barrier 19 and jockey Tim Clark will need some luck from out there. She is a good mare that should not be overlooked – a career record of 7 starts, 5 wins and 1 second placing. She is one that is obviously here for the Brisbane Winter Carnival looking for a black type win. Whatever she does this weekend be sure to follow her in coming weeks.
Bidii Babe (10) just didn’t get a look at them in the final 100 metres in the Gold Coast Silk Stocking. I think if Jim Byrne had any luck in the straight – anything could have happened – so with that in mind she will strip fitter and be in the finish here this weekend!
Dee Nine Elle (8) has drawn well in barrier 1, has the services of Corey Brown and if left alone in front without any pressure could be difficult to run down.
I respect the money trial for Untamed Diamond (5), but I am going for one at odds that looked like should have won last start – Bidii Babe (10) – good each way odds as well at $11.
Selections: 10-5-7-12 rough chances 3 and 8
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Race 6 – The Magic Millions Roses (Group 2)
Dawn Wall (3) won the Gold Coast Bracelet a fortnight ago in such dominant fashion that I really cannot go past that run here. She was superbly ridden by Hugh Bowman who stalked the leaders before exposing her in the straight for a powerful win on that occasion. She is $3.60 in the early markets and to be fair I think this is over the odds here. So it may pay to snap this up prior to race day! She has drawn wide in barrier 12 but I think she can settle off the speed and power home over the top of them again.
The stable mate Invincibella (4) they say was unlucky last start in the race won by Dawn Wall (3) when she drew barrier 1 and was held up in the straight and didn’t really get a fair crack at them. if you watch the run and think that you probably are entitled to put her on top here this weekend. I am a little dubious about the assessment by some – I have watched the replay. I think with barrier 2 this weekend and a jockey change in Kerrin McEvoy she is entitled not to be overlooked here.
Kenedna (2) from Darren Weir’s team in Melbourne was sent out favourite in the Group 1 Schweppes Oaks at Morphettville and stormed home to be beaten by Egg Tart. She may just find it tough to win this weekend here at Doomben with the rail out, but look for a nice run to top her off for the Queensland Oaks at Eagle Farm where I think she may just dominate them.
She is around the $7 mark for that race in the “all in” markets – that race is 2 weeks away. She may be a nice double into the one I tipped last weekend to win the Queensland Derby, Shocking Luck, who came out and won last weekend.
The Pinnacle (6) settled off them and flashed home to run second two weeks ago in the race won by Dawn Wall at the Gold Coast. Again the way she ran there gives me the impression that the 2400metres of the Oaks may right up her alley as well. he is great odds as well in the “all in” markets at $14. Maybe couple them both if you are feeling lucky!
Selections: 3-4-6-2 rough chance 1
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Race 7 – 2017 HARDY BROTHERS DOOMBEN CUP (Group 1)
The second Group 1 of the winter Carnival in Brisbane – and what a race!
WFA conditions of this race really do suit the quality runners in the field. This will sort the men out from the boys!
It’s Somewhat (1) was impressive at the Gold Coast last start. He is an impeccable third up record with five starts for 3 wins and a second placing. He has his fourth different jockey in successive starts with James Doyle taking over this week. Maybe this is the key to him – keep him fresh with a different jockey each start!
Preferment (2) has drawn poorly here but battled on well last start at the Gold Coast behind It’s Somewhat. I think looking at his form he normally shows his best form with his third run from a spell – so I may overlook him this week – but I will be looking for him next start over the Brisbane Carnival. (Note third up 5 starts, 2 wins and 2 seconds).
The 2016 Perth Cup (Group 2) winner is here this weekend. Star Exhibit (5) comes from the powerful Darren Weir yards with the interesting engagement of Blake Shinn to ride. He resumed at Caulfield over 1440metres and raced super – stepping up here he could be one to challenge in the finish. Shinn has a recent impressive record in this race winning it in 2014 and 2015 – will it be his year in 2017? Good each way value at around $15 here.
The second Darren Weir runner is Articus (12). I thought he was a good bet in the Hollindale (where he was scratched) instead he had a solid hit out and a win at Flemington. I think he will be better in coming weeks but he has settled in well since arriving on the Sunshine Coast. If the track is wet – he will come into his own. He loves wet tracks!
Finally Weir has Amelie’s Star (16) engaged – a big effort 3 runners in the Doomben Cup this year! This mare comes off a good Group 2 win at Morphettville last start in the Queen of the South Stakes over 1600m. She has won over 2400metres last preparation so the distance will not be a drama – just worried that she may get out of her ground this weekend and be flashing home late wide on the track. She has been backed as well from $16 to $11 in the early markets.
Maurus (9) ran a good fifth in this race last year and will be well suited by any wet conditions this weekend. I thought the run at the Gold Coast was full or merit and the extra 200metres here this weekend will be right up his alley! His third up form is awesome with 4 starts, 2 wins and a second and Waratah Thoroughbreds Syndications and John Thompson have kept Damian Browne aboard here. He was been well backed from $20 into $12.
Single Gaze (14) was competitive last start at the Gold Coast when finishing a close second to It’s Somewhat (1). I really thought that she had every chance to run down and beat him. If the track is wet I am not sure how she will handle it - so I have plenty of questions over her this week. However, she is a quality mare with $1.3 million in prize money and represents class!
Selections: 5-1-16-14 rough chances 9 and 12
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Race 8 – Taxibox BRC Sprint (Group 3)
This was a tough race to come up with my final selections.
So many horses here that can handle a damp track – which they may get this weekend.
I have gone wide here in the last tipping the Godolphin owned, Darren Beadman trained Handfast (15). He is coming out of a recent benchmark race at Rosehill where I thought the run was credible. I know he is up in class here but he has drawn well. Brenton Avdulla stays on the gelding again this week – watch out for a big performance!
Seriously, the horse that is in super form and racing so consistently is Siegfried (9) who is trained by Toby Edmonds and is to be ridden by Jeff Lloyd. The form and his runs have been super – seriously has he lost a leg or something here this weekend with $13 on offer in some markets?
The Kiwi horse trained by Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards, Splurge (8), has been dramatically backed since the markets have opened from $10 to $5. Some serious coin in anyone’s language and you cannot go past the impressive career record of 11 starts, 7 wins and 2 seconds so I suppose you have to pay attention. The Kiwis look like they have brought some serious horse flesh to the Brisbane Winter Carnival this year and this one looks well above average. It can handle a wet track as well and has drawn well in barrier 9. I am happy to see what he can do this weekend.
Darren Weir has another strong chance here as well. Ulmann (5) who won at his home track over the Warrnambool Carnival on a heavy track. There was some early money for this one when the markets opened – but he has now drifted slightly out to $6.
I see that the General Manager of the Tweed River Jockey Club, Mr Brian Charman, has one engaged here. He is a part owner of Perfect Dare who just didn’t go a yard in the Country Championships Finals at Randwick back in April on a heavy bottomless track. I am saying forget and forgive that run. He is better than that and was flying prior to that run. He has had a slight let up and two solid barrier trials culminating in a nice win on a heavy track at Deagon two weeks ago. Jim Byrne rode him in that trial and he looked like he was back to his old self. He has drawn wide here this weekend in barrier 13 but at $31 I think he represents a serious knock out chance.
This race has a history of a rough result and can cause some pain to a punters hip pocket and quadrellas and trebles – it may pay you to play wide here this weekend!
Selections: 15-9-8-5 rough chance 16
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
3,6,7 / 2,9,12 / 4,5,7,8 / 1,9,10,15 - cost is $144 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
5,7,10,12 / 2,3,4,6 / 1,5,14,16 / 5,8,9,15 - cost is $256 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
5,10,12 / 3,4,6 / 1,5,16 / 8,9,15 - cost is $81 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
5,10 / 3,4 / 5,16 / 9,15,16 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
2,3,4,6 / 1,5,14,16 / 5,8,9,15,16 - cost is $80 to $1
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Best Bets
Race 3 – Prompt Return (4) – around $5
Race 4 – Tactical Advantage (1) – around $4.60
Best Roughies
Race 3 – Mr Manhattan (5) – around $7
Race 5 – Bidii Babe (10) – around $11
Race 7 – Star Exhibit (5) – around $15
Race 8 – Handfast (15) – around $12
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Jockey Challenge
This week the field looks like a win to the NSW jockey Kerrin McEvoy again – but Jim Byrne has a solid book for rides and comes off Group 1 glory in the Doomben 10,000 last weekend. He will be the one at odds if you want to go a little wide here this weekend.
We could see a triple dead heat between McEvoy – Byrne – and Jeff Lloyd. What odds can you offer me on that result Mr Gerard Daffy from UBET ... show me the good odds!
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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno will continue this week.
It is a fierce competition, however Winno leads 3 -0 at this stage.
Make sure you check our tips and the terms of the competition on Facebook this weekend.
I hope he can pull something out this week – else I think it is only fair that he wears a NSW cap when doing his tips in the last race next week if he loses this weekend.
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My last comment for the week ... I hope you Queenslanders can sort out a team when your team announcement comes on Monday. I hear you are running scared and will name and extended team on Monday of around 20 players – GO NSW in 2017!
Good luck and good punting!
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