WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MAY 27 - PART 1
By Darren Winningham | Friday, May 26, 2017
PART 1
We managed a few winners last weekend – some at good odds as well!
This week looks like a tough affair back to Eagle Farm with concern ... well speculation ... on how well the track may or may not perform, so I would suggest bet carefully.
The track is officially rated as a “HEAVY 8” and the rail is in the true position.
Much speculation is around the fast lane home. Some say the fence. Some will tell you 4 or 5 off the rail.
I would suggest for first three races they will come along the fence or close to it and then scout wider as the program continues. But watch for an act of bravery in the last with someone sneaking along the rails if it gets left alone for a few races as happened last week at Doomben!
Those who managed to back Jim Byrne last week in the jockeys challenge certainly will have a good bank balance this weekend with as much as $15 being bet about him! Maybe with State of Origin around the corner he is out making a statement!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The opening race is over 1200 metres on a probable, shifting and heavy track. I went looking for something that can run a solid distance over 1400m or so. I think that is what might be needed. I may be wrong here, but happy to be proven wrong on the day ... so I am tipping Top Tone (10) who ran a great race first up in the Bat Out of Hell. He has a reasonable second up record, likes the Eagle Farm track and can handle the wet. I am tipping him each way here at the good odds of $10.
Flamboyer (2) is dropping back in class here and does like the wet tracks so I give him a chance as well. He recently won a solid trial on the Gold Coast beating Mr Epic – so that is a good lead for this race.
James Cummings, who has just been officially announced as the new Godolphin trainer this week, trains Burning Passion. I think that you can overlook his last run at Hawkesbury where he ran a great race but was not suited by the tight track. He has a super heavy track record with five starts, 3 wins and a placing, and has the services of Hugh Bowman who has been riding sensationally. He is the easing favourite at the moment at around the $4.60mark.
Sony Legend (7) was super at the Gold Coast last start winning so easy. He normally can string a few wins together when he does put a win on the board. Not sure if he really enjoys the heavy going, but he will be racing home late. There are some other chances as listed. An open and difficult race to get us started today!
Selections: 10-6-2-7 rough chances 9, 14 & 16
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Race 2
The Chris Waller stable has a solid representation here with three runners and I think he may just be able to trifecta the race!
I have gone for the one in his team that has the superior wet track form – Elle Lou (7). She has been up a while but she loves wet tracks and last start at Scone she made up many lengths in a barnstorming finish over 1400 metres. Again, even though the race is 1600metres here she has good form over longer distances. I really think she is great value here at $12. Blake Shinn has had a quiet Carnival but he normally does have a stand out day each year in Brisbane. Will this be his day? Blake has the ride on Elle Lou this weekend – the first time he has ridden the 5 year old mare.
Another Waller runner Amovatio (2) will be ridden by Tommy Berry – his first appearance in Brisbane for the Winter Carnival. Prior to his good run in the Scone Cup two weeks ago he had three barrier trials to get him ready. At Scone he drew wide, had to be ridden off the speed and then made a long sustained run to fly home and be beaten by 3.45 lengths. Again the gelding has solid form over longer distances, so if the track is playing longer he is well placed here.
Religify (1) was superb in the Prime Minister’s Cup at the Gold Coast three weeks ago. He will be ridden close to the speed and probably will be handy coming to the turn. When the whips are cracking Hugh Bowman will have this one well balanced and making his presence felt close to the winning post.
Duca Valentinos (3) won the Scone Cup last start – impressively. No doubt on the form there, however, with the weight for age conditions I just wonder if he will be competitive against this field. He will handle the going and will probably be running home late.
Selections: 7-2-1-3
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Race 3 – Mitavite BRC Sires Produce Stakes (Group 2)
Looks like a hard assignment here with a field of 18 runners!
I think I may just sit back and watch this one – I suppose we should be thankful it is not a leg of the Quaddie!
I really like two of the emergencies if they manage to get in the field.
I cannot go past the run of Lord Cecil (19) in the Ken Russell at the Gold Coast. There were big wraps on this one prior to that run and they did tell me that whatever it did that day it would only get better. The run was amazing at the Gold Coast, settling off the speed, getting out of his ground and storming home late to be beaten by 0.9 lengths. A great run!
Whilst he has no official race form on a heavy track I can tell you that he has had some barrier trials and jump outs on the heavy and soft going and has performed admirably. Blake Shinn has been engaged for the ride as well - a good indication that the stable think this one is ready for the Sires this weekend. If you shop early you can get some nice odds each way at around $14. Whilst this is under the $26 at the Gold Coast I think it represents great value.
The other emergency I like is the Darren Weir trained Snitzepeg (20) who performed well last start at Morphettville in the Group 3 South Australian Sires Produce when he rattled home late – but will he enjoy the Eagle Farm surface and the wet track?
Tangled (1) won well last start at Doomben. This weekend the blinkers go on – an interesting gear change. There is no drama with the distance and no drama on a wet track and he was very impressive at Doomben a fortnight ago. Kerrin McEvoy retains the ride and I did tip him on top last start so it pains me to go away from him here.
Capital Gain (7) I think has been set for this race months ago. The Paul Butterworth team have had not much luck with this one but he gives me the impression that Eagle Farm, the 1400metres and a heavy track will be made to order this weekend. I see that the Queenslander and in form Jim Byrne has been engaged to ride. Jim has been in great from over the first two days of the Carnival – this one is a genuine chance here and it has been backed off the map from $14 to $7.50 since the markets have opened.
Another kiwi raider is here this weekend, Melody Belle (14). It has been marked as the early $4.20 favourite for the race in the early markets. I am just not sure here how she will go here, but a recent trial on a heavy track at Deagon showed that she is well and ready to run a race. The filly has won the Karaka Magic Millions and then came out and won the Awapuni Sires Produce (Group 1) over 1400metres on a soft track. I think she will handle the going but it is difficult to line up the New Zealand form with the Australian form.
The other kiwi runner is the undefeated Qiji Phoenix (9), trained by Donna Logan and Chris Gibbs, you cannot go past the impressive 3 from 3 wins of this Not a Single Doubt colt. Leith Innes has ridden him for two rides and two wins and he keeps the association here this weekend. He has drawn dreadfully in barrier 23. His last win at Ellerslie appeared soft but you can only beat what they put up against you.
Selections: 19-1-7-14 rough chances 5, 9, 13 & 20
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Race 4 – 2017 Channel 7 Premier’s Cup (Group 3)
So I wonder whether Premier Anna Palaszczuk will be here to hand out the trophies this weekend? Let’s hope so!
I think the form that we should look at for this race is the Chairman’s Handicap (Group 3) two weeks ago at Doomben. I think the same three that finished in the top three there should be the ones to be competitive again here.
The performance of Stampede (3) in that race was outstanding!
Kerrin McEvoy took the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained stallion to the lead and to be fair everyone had their opportunity to beat him, but he found something extra in the final 150 metres and ran them into the ground. Left alone in front again here this week, with McEvoy allowed to dictate terms again, I think he looks the winner!
The two that ran the placings last start were The Chairman (8) and Chocante (9). They should fill the placings again here – but I think in the reverse order this weekend. I think that Chocante (9) will appreciate the wet track and with his first Australian run under his belt he may be the one to improve and challenge the favourite, Stampede (3). There has been some early market money for this one as well firming from $9 to $6.50.
The other runner is the Murwillumbah trained Morendi (11), trained by Darren Graham. He has an impressive record here at Eagle Farm. Down in the weights he will probably be making a late run at them out wide in the straight. Forget the last run at Doomben and go on his impressive winning runs here. Whilst I have heard the trainer say he is not a fan of “wet” tracks I think if he takes his place in the field we may just see him run an honest race on a shifting surface.
Zambezi Warrior (13) will enjoy the wet conditions as well. With Jeff Lloyd on board it is one for your exotics! He had his first start last run after being gelded. Maybe he will now race more generously.
Selections: 3-9-8-11 rough chance 13
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