WINNO'S WINNERS, DOOMBEN, JUNE 10 - PART 1
By Darren Winningham | Friday, June 9, 2017
UBET STRADBROKE DAY 2017
Last week WINNO jagged a few winners and was able to tip Tim Clark in the jockeys challenge – so there was something for the punters – great odds as well at $10.
This week we are back at Doomben. There is some possible rain forecast for Saturday. I am confident that we will be fine – if there is any precipitation it will be from the eyes of the Queenslanders after losing State of Origin 1.
The track is currently rated “GOOD” and the rail is 0.5metres out the entire circuit.
This week we have the time honoured Stradbroke as the feature race. It is not a classic field that we have seen in recent years, however, it looks an even bunch and very competitive.
Well this weekend I have looked for horses that may lead or race handy. I just think that horses on the speed this week may have a distinct advantage. I did manage to get to have a look at the track on Wednesday at the barrier draw for the Stradbroke. I am going to suggest the fastest way home this week is on the rail or up to 3 or 4 wide only. The rail was out 5 metres last weekend – that means the ground on the inside has rested for a while now and it looked like the track manager has got it in amazing condition.
There should be no excuses this weekend!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The opening race on UBET Stradbroke day – an open field as well with no real standout bet here. So I am treading carefully here.
All Over Bosanova (14) has been well backed here since the markets have opened, being well found at $8 into $4.20. I think back on top of a firm track we should see the best of her this weekend.
I was taken by the topweight and kiwi runner Heroic Valour (1) in the Gold Coast Guineas. Opie Bosson rode the colt so well but was just run down at the post. I think back in grade we should see a continuation of that form and a win here.
The favourite Tactical Advantage (2) was super last start. He looked like he was beaten at the 150 metres and then just found another gear with Glyn Schofield aboard and surged away for what I considered a great win. I am scared that this one, now he has tasted victory, will go on with it. However, he is drawn wide here this weekend. But you must respect the Glyn Schofield factor – 6 rides for 5 wins and a third on this James Cummings trained gelding. Pretty outstanding stats!
If you want a roughie here I am going to suggest you have something each way on the Peter and Paul Snowden trained Calanda (3) at the $15 on offer. I think you can forget the run in the Fred Best Classic a fortnight ago at Eagle Farm. If he has not taken any disadvantage from that run I really think that he is the value runner here. He has the services of the inform Kerrin McEvoy as well who rode Egg Tart to such a wonderful win last weekend in the Queensland Oaks.
The local chances are probably best represented by the Stuart Kendrick trained Rare Occurrence (13). Again forget the run at Eagle Farm – she loves the Doomben track (4 wins here) and Tiffani Brooker has a great record on her with 2 wins and a placing from three starts. She could be some value here as well and she has drawn best of the fancied runners in barrier 4.
There it is, race one – on a nine race program – let’s keep going!
Selections: 1-3-2-13 rough chance 14
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Race 2
Okay – where do I start? Some of the ones I like have drawn what seem impossible barriers whilst others I think may get out of their ground so this could be a race with a rough result for punters.
Be warned!
I am going to stay with Nancy (5). I thought she was a certainty beaten last start at the Gold Coast – 20 metres more and she wins the race! Hugh Bowman stays on this classy mare. She is the one to beat for mine!
Quatronic (4) was awesome at Scone in the Ortensia (Listed Race) last start. He normally likes to race on the speed and dominate in his races. It may be hard this week drawn in barrier 15 but I am sure Ronnie Stewart will devise some tactics to see him given every chance.
The visitor from the David Hayes and Tom Dabernig stables has grabbed my attention here – Miss Gunpowder (11). She comes off a Group 1 and a Group 3 run in South Australia her last two starts. She can take up a forward position or can be ridden quiet – jockey Craig Williams I am sure will have her placed a little more forward than her last two starts here. She is down on the minimum and she looks a serious contender here.
Too Good To Refuse (7) probably won’t get a start in the Stradbroke (it is an emergency) and has had a solid hit out winning a recent trial at Doomben two weeks ago. Robbie Fradd reunites with the stallion this week and after the sad events of last weekend in PJ O’Shea with Cylinder Beach, I hope trainer Desleigh Forster gets a win with this one. Sdeserves a change of luck!
Mogador (15) resumed last start and was defeated by Bonny O’Reilly when he carried me (61.0kilograms) and finished off the race solidly. I would have nearly declared him here this weekend – but he has drawn barrier 19. Jockey Corey Brown may have to grab a GPS to ensure he doesn’t get lost from out there!
Now if you want one at around $41 I can suggest one that ran enormous last start at Doomben in the Chief De Beers that was won by The Virginian when resuming. That is the Michael Costa trained Quelle Liaison (18) – drawn a little wide in barrier 14. No jockey declared at the moment – but I tell you what – do not leave this one out of your multiples and exotic bets.
Selections: 5-11-7-15 rough chances 4-18
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Race 3 – The RADIOTAB Wayne Wilson 2017 (Listed Race)
Well a great race named after a wonderful and inspirational race caller of Brisbane racing.
I am hoping that General Manager of RadioTab, David Salmon, is at the track on the weekend. He is another great operator and has brought wonderful content to the station since taking the reins in February 2016.
I am telling you that if Elle Lou (4) has taken no ill effect from her run last start at Eagle Farm she is the one to beat here. She was backed sensationally from $9 to $4.50 at one stage before easing to $5 and Blake Shinn was the victim of the bad track when he pulled her wide to make a run and obviously hit a patch of the track that was not the best. She stopped and still ran a gallant third. At $6 this weekend – each way all day for me!
Moher (6) looks the obvious danger. He has been running around in Sydney and Scone and should be fresh here and has drawn well in barrier 1. Tye Angland aboard (a solid NSW man and supporter) and dressed in the Godolphin blue – what more could you ask for!
Religify (1) featured in the stewards report after the dismal failure at Eagle Farm. He was beaten 12 lengths, but it is pretty well known that he just doesn’t like the wet tracks. Forgive him that run and, on top of the ground here, look for a marked and improved performance.
Mystic Opal (10) trained by Chris Anderson, will appreciate the firm going and the Doomben track. Again overlook the run when beaten by Eckstein in the Glenlogan Park a fortnight ago. Look at her pervious form and she should be right in this. She hasn’t won over the mile previously – but just the way she settles and then flashes home late I think that she is well suited here.
Col ‘N’ Lil (3) won impressively last start. A stable change since that last win with the mare now trained by Toby Edmonds on the Gold Coast. Jeff Lloyd won on her last start so you have that formidable dynamic duo here to contend with – Edmonds & Lloyd. I just am not to certain how the heavy track at Eagle Farm last start may have flattered that winning performance. I am happy to leave her out of my top four this weekend.
Selections: 4-6-1-10 rough chance 3
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Race 4 – Bundaberg Rum Dane Ripper Stakes (Group 2)
Well last weekend we saw a great mare win the Coughlan (Listed Race). Part owned by the colourful Bruno Micalizzi, Bonny O’Reilly (9) she was pretty dominant over 1200 metres and was absolutely smashed in the betting starting odds-on and winning well in the last race. It was great to catch up with Bruno who is a regular owner and winner at Brisbane Winter Racing Carnivals. This week she steps up in grade again here against some seasoned opposition. If she doesn’t secure a run in the Stradbroke I have been assured she will start here and then head onto the Tatts Tiara (Group 1) in a few weeks. Could be a big month for Bruno and the connections!
I am going for some value here with the Gai Waterhouse trained Prompt Response (12) at around the $10 mark. I think she was unlucky at Scone in the Dark Jewel when she finished a solid second and since then has had a freshen up and a solid hit out in a barrier trial at Warwick Farm over 1200 metres that she won well. Tommy Berry is Hong Kong bound soon. He has had a quiet Carnival so far – this may be one for him to get home on the weekend.
Extensible (11) ran fifth in the same race at Scone as Prompt Response (12) when a good fifth beaten by 1.63 lengths. Peter and Paul Snowden train this one and I think that she represents good each way value at around the $20 mark here as well. Damian Browne takes the ride this weekend. Nicely rated and sitting behind the speed I can see this one being in the finish at some stage.
Then you have the two that come out of the Glenlogan Park race the other week – Raiment (7) and Sold For Song (8). It seems that Raiment (7) just didn’t handle the Eagle Farm track surface. That is my mail so it may pay to overlook that run. That would be the same for many horses that come out of that meeting and you really have no idea on how they may perform here this weekend.
Sold For Song (8) just gets no luck with barrier draws and consistently has to be ridden quiet and for luck. I think from barrier 17 jockey Jimmy Orman will settle her last and let her get her feet before making a run five or six wide in the straight and flashing late. She is a great mare but needs some luck. I hope for trainer Kevin Kemp’s sake that she can run a solid race.
It is a tough race, but there could be some value if you steer away from the favourite runners.
Selections: 12-11-9-7 rough chance 8
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Race 5 – Ascot Green Queensland Guineas (Group 2)
Again I am going away from the favoured runners here.
Sylpheed (13) has been racing consistently and I think on a firm surface we will see the best of this Edmonds Racing trained filly. I really think that we may see a 3 or 4 length improvement here this weekend – a big call I know but I just think this one has some ability.
In saying that she was defeated last start by Niccanova (4) at Eagle Farm on the heavy track. Jimmy Orman gave that gelding every chance and he performed well. This weekend Anthony Allen takes over and is looking for a Group 2 winner over the Carnival. He has won over the distance and at the track so he ticks a few boxes. With an impeccable record with five starts – 4 wins and a third – he can be ridden forward or back and I think personally again will be the hardest to beat here in the 2017 Guineas.
Oak Door (2), another dual acceptor (emergency in the Stradbroke), has been racing in Group races in Melbourne and commands respect here. The run in the Australian Guineas when beaten 2.75 lengths by Hey Doc was superb. Craig Williams has chased the ride on this one. I think he must be put in your multiples and at $8 is a big price for some solid form. I must respect this one as well.
Salsonic (7), trained by Jason Coyle, gets back in his races and normally comes home fast and late. I’m not sure if that pattern of racing will be to his advantage here this weekend, but he has the services of Hugh Bowman who can win on a broomstick at the moment. Do not underestimate this one at good odds of around $20.
Then you have the locally trained River Racer (12), trained by Les Ross. This one over the last few months has added some serious value to my exotic bets – trifectas and first 4 bets! He normally just sneaks in at a massive price into the first four placings and puts value into these bets. I think with Robbie Fradd on board this may just occur again!
Selections: 13-4-2-7 – rough chance 12
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