WINNO'S WINNERS, DOOMBEN, JUNE 10 - PART 2

By Darren Winningham | Friday, June 9, 2017

UBET STRADBROKE DAY 2017

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

Race 6 – BMW J.J.Atkins (Group 1)

Well this looks like a good thing – or is it?

Melody Belle (13) came out in the Sires’ Produce last start and destroyed them – can it be done again this week?

I do not think I have seen a more dominant performance by a two year old in Brisbane in recent years. The mile looks right up her alley this week and Opie Bosson is not getting out of that saddle in a while. The stable has had a great Winter Carnival – three out of three. I am not going to declare her as everyone will be tipping her come Saturday, but she looks the real deal!

Now here is the knockout horse. Trainer of Group 1 winners in Brisbane Winter Carnival trainer Ciaron Maher brings a new contender to the battlegrounds here this weekend – his charge is called Aloisia (14). It comes off a dominant barrier trial, followed up by a great win at Flemington over 1400 metres, Drawn well in barrier 6 and should race just off the speed and be given the run of the race by Mark Zahra.

If you want something to knock over the favourite and spoil the Kiwi party this is the one!! $10 in most markets at the moment. I think this price will be snapped up closer to race day – so it may be worth a saver on this one if you load up on Melody Belle (13).

Taking Aim (1) and Capital Gain (3) ran honest races in the Sires’ Produce when soundly beaten by Melody Belle (13). This week blinkers go on Capital Gain (3) for the first time. I think that this well dramatically improve this gelding who has shown that he is probably best suited at the mile the way he has raced. I think with a good track as well and Jim Byrne in the saddle there could be a local winner here!

Taking Aim (1) was gallant in defeat when beaten by 4.8 lengths last start in the Sires’. Bowman has stayed solid with this one and again I think the improved track should yield a more competitive performance this weekend.

There are two roughies here. The first is Lord Cecil (11) who was my pick for the Sires, however, was sent back to Sydney and really didn’t fire on a soft track at Randwick. This week he endures a number of gear changes for this race – too many to list - however, winkers are on for the first time. I know the stable has an opinion of this one and I reckon with Craig Williams aboard and doing his homework he will be flashing down the outside late – probably right next to Capital Gain (3).

The other roughie and a genuine chance at some massive odds of around $31 is Magnufighter (12), trained by Gary Duncan and to be ridden by Jeff Lloyd. Last week he finished off the 1350m real strong in the race one by the progressive Pardoe. On that day not many made solid ground from the rear but this colt managed to do that and I was taken by the run. He may be worth an each way ticket this weekend.

Selections: 13-14-1-3 rough chances 11 and 12

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Race 7 – 2017 CHANNEL 7 QUEENSLAND DERBY (Group 1)

The Derby takes on a new dimension with the change of tracks and with the distance coming back to 2200 metres at Doomben.

I said last weekend the South Australian form looked the best guideline for the Oaks and the Derby. So, staying with that notion, I have come up with Volatile Mix (1) and Ruthven (2). Now Volatile Mix (1) just beat Ruthven (2) in the South Australian Derby (Group 1) and since then Volatile Mix raced gallantly on the Eagle Farm track and was narrowly beaten by Order Again – lodged a protest and was not successful. I am just wondering how much that run on the heavy track has taken out of this Darren Weir trained colt.

Meanwhile Ruthven (2) has had a nice break and has been working well at the Ciaron Maher yards at Caulfield. This could be a historic day for Maher – he could just bag two Group 1 victories in consecutive races!

This Domesday colt seems to run a lot of placings with 9 starts – 2 wins and 5 second placings. I really think there could be a change of fortune here, ridden on the speed by the master High Bowman. I think we will see him dominate turning into the straight and scoot away – well let’s hope anyway!

Shocking Luck (6) was shocking last start! Sorry bad pun but the pre-post favourite looked like he had hit the wall 400 metres out on the heavy track at Eagle Farm. He has always been my early tip for the Derby but I just cannot get over the disappointing run last start. They tell me that he may have had some dramas with his breathing, so that may explain the gear change this weekend with a nasal strip and a tongue tie for the first time – looks like they are trying to make sure it doesn’t happen again this weekend in his Grand Final.

I have found a place for one at $21 in my first three – Fontein Lad (7) trained at Cranbourne by Greg Eurell and to be ridden by Nikita Beriman. Punters will say Winno has lost his marbles here putting this one in, however, the last start win at Ipswich on a good track in a fast time has got my attention. Those who have a short memory will forget last year’s Queensland Oaks winner Provocative came through a similar preparation with a dominant win at Ipswich in fast time and then came out and destroyed the field in the Oaks.

Okay I know it is the Derby but that is my logic for putting this one in and saying it is a genuine contender. Beriman is no stranger to riding a roughie and winning Group 1 races. In fact her maiden Group 1 winner was ironically for trainer Ciaron Maher on Tears I Cry in the Emirates Stakes in 2007 – a long time between drinks but this could be one serious chance here.

Ana Royale (16) was super last weekend in the Queensland Oaks and to be fair probably got a little too far out of her ground. This weekend she is up against the boys – who ever said that Winno is misogynistic and would not give a girl a wrap! (Now that includes you Miss Patricia Gesler – by the way how did your Maroons go the other week??).

I think that this week with the rail in and drawn handy in barrier 3, jockey Mark Zahra may not let her get too far back. She does normally race quiet and finish off her races – so I hope that she can hold a forward position this week.

Chris Waller has four horses engaged in the 2017 Derby – they all have a genuine chance as well. I probably think Wu Gok (10) may take off from the wide barrier and lead the field going out of the straight – well that is the way I map them at this stage.

I have a preference for one of his less fancied runners – Sizzling Bullet (8) with Craig Williams on it. I took a long look at the video of his last run Randwick where he carried the grandstand (60.5kgs) and was ridden quiet, sprinted well and finished off the race nicely – a pretty good effort in preparation for the Derby.

Selections: 2-1-7-16 rough chances 6 and 8

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Race 8 – 2017 UBET Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1)

Welcome to the 2017 Stradbroke – in the red corner we have Darren Weir with three runners and in the BLUE corner we have Chris Waller with three runners! I know Waller is a Kiwi but he did land in Sydney in 2000 and set up camp at Rosehill so I am claiming him as a NSW trainer – hence he loves the Blues!

Again a different perspective is taken on the race with it being at Doomben over 1350 metres.

I think there will be some genuine speed in the race this year that probably means the swoopers will be running home late and wide – if they can make ground. The race could be really be set up for something that sits off the pace and bides it’s time for one powerful run late at them in the straight.

I did say a few weeks ago that Clearly Innocent (1) would win the Stradbroke in 2017. I thought that it would struggle at WFA and we would see the best of him this week – that was when I thought the race would be at Eagle Farm. I still think that despite the wide barrier he will be in the finish at some stage – the sectionals in his part two starts are sensational.

This is like Magic Millions 2017 when they all wrote off Houtzen as she drew wide and what happened – she came out and put egg on all the critics faces! I am not sure I am that confident with Clearly Innocent (1), however expect a bold run and a super ride from Hugh Bowman.

Here we go – this is tough!

I am going to bracket two here to beat the early prepost favourite!

Can history repeat in 2017 – see if you can work it out ... owned by Triple Crown Syndications, trained by Peter and Paul Snowden and ridden by Jim Byrne?

Well, they won the James Boag’s Premium Doomben 10,000 a few weeks ago. Now they front up here this weekend with Gold Symphony (14) who was beaten by Clearly Innocent (1) at Scone on the 13 May in the Luskin Star.

The Reward For Effort gelding meets Clearly Innocent 5 kilograms better for that defeat. Jockey Jim (yes I know he is a Queenslander!!) takes the ride and he loves this Doomben track – could be a big 2017 for the local boy.

Should I issue the challenge?? If he wins he gets on Winno’s shoulders in a post-race celebration! – You have been called out by “the big guy” Jim Byrne! At $31 he is super value!

The other one of my selections is Egyptian Symbol (13). Now I can hear some of you saying how you can put that in Winno? Take a look at the last run behind Eckstein – one word – SUPER!!

Glyn Schofield being booked to ride this one has drawn my attention as well – 5 rides, 3 wins and 2 thirds. I don’t think you can get better stats for a Group 1 race! She is massive odds as well at around $17. So you can back both of them and win plenty!!

My last one at massive odds is Good Project (5) one of Chris Waller’s charges and to be ridden by Tommy Berry. Again one that comes off a solid Melbourne Spring Carnival that was extended into Western Australia where he ran a grand second in the Railway Stakes (Group 1) at Ascot.

He races well fresh – the recent trial at Rosehill was full of merit and went to the line hard held. I think if Bowman had let the brakes off him in the trial he would have put panels on them, so I think he too is another one at odds that could jag a place here. Odds of $35 on offer at the moment.

Then for the other runners that all have chances – just a brief overview.

Counterattack (4) – a Chris Waller runner – always tries but just not sure he is up to this class. Maybe just can get some luck on the firmer track and knock them over.

Mackintosh (8) – a Chris Waller runner – resuming after a bleed. Two starts at Doomben for two Group 3 wins last Winter Carnival, he is one that has had plenty of work in preparation for this. I will have a good look at him in the parade ring.

Ulmann (10) – a Darren Weir runner. Solid in the BRC Sprint here 3 weeks ago. I get the impression that he may prefer wet conditions, however he had a solid hit out in a barrier trial at the Sunshine Coast this week on Tuesday in preparation for this weekend.

Selections: (13-14) – 1 – 5 rough chances 4 and 8 and 10

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Race 9 – 2017 Evergreen Turf Brisbane Cup (Group 2)

Finally we have made it to the last race on a super day of racing!

I would say take the field here in your Quaddie an Trebles – this race has a history of something rough – something disgraceful getting up and winning! Be Warned!

My Melbourne spies have alerted me to the bottom one here – Grand Dreamer (14) from the Robert Smerdon yards! Craig Williams takes the ride. He gets in on the minimum and has been solidly backed from $21 to $13 in some quarters. He does seem to be a professional place getter – but where there is smoke their maybe fire.

I have no confidence in this race but there are two with winning form – Single Gaze (1) and Top Of My List (4). Both come off last start wins. Last weekend Single Gaze won the PJ O’Shea Stakes at Doomben so jockey Kathy O’Hara and trainer Nick Olive are looking for consecutive Group 2 victories at Doomben.

Top Of My List (4) comes off Group 3 and Listed race wins in Sydney. Only a lightly raced four year old mare trained by Anthony & Edward Cummings, she may be the one fresh on the scene and ready to perform. She should race forward as well and hopefully get an easy time in front. Tommy Berry could finish the day on a great note!

Benzini (3) won this race well last year – across the road at Eagle Farm. He certainly put the writing on the wall last start at Eagle Farm where nothing really made ground and he came from 14th at the 800 metres and kept on improving and grinding home only to be beaten by 1.0 lengths. I was taken with that run and I just hope this weekend from barrier 4 he is not ridden so far back. This appears to be the race he has been set for.

Neverland (5) from the Darren Weir stables ran well in the same race as Benzini (3) a similar sort of run as well – got back and made a sustained run to be beaten by 1.3 lengths. Dean Yendall makes the trip north this week to ride her in the Brisbane Cup and you must respect this riding engagement.

I keep on looking back at the Perth Cup run in December. If she produces a run like that she wins this easy!

Now you want some knock outs like I said in my opening paragraph!

Emerald City (7) loves Doomben track – 3 starts, 2 wins and 1 second. I hope regular strapper Erika Schmid and part owner is at Doomben this weekend. She shows so much emotion every time this gelding wins or puts in a wonderful effort. I know that the stable have been looking for a dry track – this weekend I think he gets conditions to suit and, down in the weights, here is one of those knock outs I was highlighting - $51 each way all day. In fact bookmaker Con Searle – I am coming for you on this one!

Now in saying that the other one wanting a dry track is Morendi (12) who will appreciate the firm going and may be running home with no weight on his back as well. What odds I hear you say – why not take some of the $35 on offer if you want a roughie!

Selections: 5-4-1-7 rough chances 3 and 12

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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)

4,5,7,11,15 / 1,4,6,10 / 7,9,11,12 / 2,4,7,13 - cost is $320 for $1

Quadrella (races 6 to 9)

1,3,13,14 / 1,2,7,16 / 1,5,13,14 / 1,4,5,7 - cost is $256 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

13,14 / 1,2,7 / 1,13,14 / 4,5,7 - cost is $54 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

13,14 / 1,2 / 13,14 / 4,5,7 - cost is $24 to $1

The Special Straddie Quaddie

13,14 / 2 / 13,14 / Field (with current runners) - cost is $96 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

1,2,7,16 / 1,5,13,14 / 1,3,4,5,7 - cost is $80 to $1

Jockey Challenge

This week it looks like a win to the NSW jockey Hugh Bowman. Should win this easy – JUST GET ON!

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Best Bets

Race 2 – Nancy (4) – around $5
Race 7 – Ruthven(1) – around $5.50

Best Roughies

Race 4 – Prompt Response (5) – around $7
Race 5 – Sylpheed (13) – around $8
Race 6 – Aloisia (14) – around $10
Race 8 – Egyptian Symbol (13) – around $17
Race 8 – Gold Symphony (14) – around $31
Race 9 – Emerald City (7) around $51

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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno will continue this week. It is a fierce competition, however Winno leads 5 -1 at this stage.

Make sure you check our tips and the terms of the competition on Facebook this weekend.

Between us last week we nearly tipped the whole program – so stay tuned!

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My last comment for this week is – I hope you Queenslanders can sort out a team when your team announcement comes on Tuesday.

My exclusive mail is that Billy Slater will be named as your fullback on Tuesday. I hope he makes a positive difference to your team . I would hate to win the series 3-0 this year.

Now that’s fighting words!

Next weekend I will be reporting live from the Kilcoy Race Club as we at HRO continue to support country racing as well as the metropolitan meetings!

Good luck and good punting!

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