WINNO'S WINNERS: IPSWICH, JUNE 17
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, June 15, 2017
Well this weekend the Winter Racing Carnival heads west to Ipswich.
Unfortunately the track will be a “HEAVY” rating. The rail in the true position for the entire course.
The heavy track will definitely have an impact on runners and the final fields – so I will do my best to find some wet weather horses for you!
Looks like a tough day but as usual the locals always love this day and all roads will head to the Ipswich track. I was thinking about heading out there myself with a brown paper bag with some cash in it to take on the bookies – but I think I may just head north to Kilcoy for the day!
Last weekend we saw the pinnacle of the Winter Carnival racing conclude at Doomben – a great day! Around 14,000 patrons packed the track and it was a great day with an amazing atmosphere!
The track raced well and it seemed that all runners had every chance to win last week.
I managed to tip a few winners and the program was dominated by Hugh Bowman (3 winners) and Jim Byrne (2 winners). These two are really flying over the Carnival and have been riding in great form. I hope you all snapped up some of the $2.60 on offer for Hugh Bowman last weekend in the jockeys challenge.
The last race for me was special – seeing Jim Byrne leading the entire was on Chocante trained by Stephen Marsh in New Zealand – then getting silly with the boys after the race. It just goes to show that the racing industry is going well when we can relax after the last race.
For the record I didn’t drop Jim Byrne either this week! He sat well on Winno and luckily for me he didn’t pull the whip!
Did I mention I did tip the Early Quaddie in NSW as well? That paid $2000!
With the weather an unknown this weekend and the scratchings unknown – I will be brief or just put my selections this week and highlight any market movers.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Aghh!!
Tough race to open the program leave me out!
Eljetem (8) has been backed from $15 50 to $8.50 since the markets have opened.
I have gone for Real Ego (10) - loves the track and will be better suited here than last start. Has drawn poorly but I am hoping with a few scratchings he may get in closer.
Moonlight Dancer (9) is my danger – another who likes the track and does go well on slow tracks but does have an average record in the heavy with one start for an average run.
Selections: 10-9-11-16 rough chance 14
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Race 2
Seeking Asylum (16) is my selection here with that the dynamic duo in action – Jeff Lloyd and Toby Edmonds.
A recent stable change as well – from Gary Portelli in Sydney. She has been up a while but she does love a wet track – so at $6 she looks a good gamble.
The Darleen Duryea trained Sunny Victory (3) is a track specialist and has the services of in-form jockey Jim Byrne – great each way odds as well at $8 and he was won two starts on soft tracks.
Selections: 16-4-13-8 rough chance 6
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Race 3
I think this race is between just two of them - the Matthew Dunn trained Steamin’ (6) and Call the Captain (8).
Both have good wet weather form and should race handy on the speed so this may prove beneficial in the wet conditions that are predicted.
Call the Captain (8) has been racing in Sydney and comes off a solid second at Rosehill last start. Only a lightly raced gelding with 5 career starts with 2 wins and 2 seconds.
On the other side of the coin Steamin’ has won here and knows the track and Corey Brown (2017 Stradbroke winning jockey) has been engaged by the powerful Dunn stables. This may be an indication that they have some confidence here this weekend.
Selections: 6-8-2-4 rough chance 13
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Race 4
The two year olds are engaged here with a few resuming from a spell whilst some have been running around for the last month.
I am going for one first up from a spell trained by Mark Webb – Acceptile (1). The colt has barrier trialled well 2 weeks ago on a soft rack at Sunshine Coast. If Damian Browne had let him go he wins the trial – good odds on offer here as well at $14 – so I am on!
Initialize (3) has been running in good class races over the Carnival and was given an easy killing a few weeks ago at the Sunshine Coast, winning a race on her home track. She looks the likely danger.
Godolphin has one in that has been running around in Sydney and should be respected here. Revenire (6) won well first up at Gosford and then really had no luck in a recent race at Rosehill – best overlook that run. Prior to the Gosford win he ran a nice trial on a heavy track – so he will handle the wet track!
Selections: 1-3-6-2 rough chance 9
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Race 5
Sir Donald (3) gets in well here with the claim for apprentice Adam Sewell. He rode the gelding to a great win last start at Gold Coast and should race on the speed here. No heavy track form, however the Gold Coast win looked strong.
Then you have Sundance (2) resuming from a spell and has had plenty of work for this first up assignment. A recent win in a Doomben trial probably suggests he is forward enough to run a race here.
The interesting runner is Tiyatrolani (4) – no rider declared when doing my tips – drawn well in barrier 1. Personally I think 1100metres is more her go and comes back in class after racing in the Gold Coast Guineas and a QTIS Plate last start at Doomben.
The heavy track may be the only question mark here this week – wait and see if she takes her spot in the field. If Tony Gollan elects to run here she may be the one to beat!
Then there is an emergency as well – trained by Robert Heathcote. Lady Cromac (18) is around the $25 mark here. She had a few trials and then came out and won two weeks ago at the Sunshine Coast – may need some luck from barrier 14, however, she looked a progressive type that may be worth following here at some nice odds.
Selections: 3-2-4-18 rough chance 7
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Race 6
As the race name suggests the Winter Stakes Provincial Stayers Final – this is a lottery!
Each year it normally turns up a rough result as well – wet track, hard to line the form up and a race over 2150metres - can they make it any harder for the first leg of the Quaddie?
The other drama is not many of them have some solid heavy track form!
This has been a tough race to assess but I am going for a lightly raced one that has been progressing well through the grades – Hot Money (9) trained by Kurt Goldman. He has won his last two starts at the Gold Coast over 1800metres and one was on a soft track – down on the minimum I will gamble on him.
Last Sight (3) won here at Ipswich last start over the distance. Robbie Fradd retains the ride – maybe he can go on with that winning form ... I said maybe!
I am really lost here – a race that you should not be betting on.
Selections: 9-3-4-8 rough chance 2
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Race 7 – 2017 Channel 7 Ipswich Cup
The best wet tracker here is Magnatude (7) but has to have everything go in his favour to win – not sure where Larry Cassidy will place him here at Ipswich but he should be coming home late.
Gai Waterhouse has Sort After (3) nominated here. She comes off some impressive runs in South Australia – that form has held up well over the Brisbane Carnival – so she may be my best on a day where I have not much confidence.
Kaiser Franz (4) loves the wet tracks as well – so he should be placed in your exotics.
Clearly Benzini (1) is the class runner in the race. Will he handle the tight turning Ipswich track? Not sure but I am certain that jockey Kelly McCullough will be making a sustained run approaching the turn to try and get the gelding to come home late.
Selections: 3-7-4-1 rough chance 11
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Race 8 – 2017 City of Ipswich Eye Liner Stakes
This is another open race.
I think there should be some good speed in the race and, as in past years, there will be the charge of the light brigade over the final 150metres with runners spread across the track, some coming home late.
I have swapped my selections around a few times here. However, I have settled on a Sydney runner – great heavy track form and good second up record – Shiraz (1).
Trained by Kim Waugh and to be ridden by Jimmy Orman Shiraz has drawn nicely here in barrier 6 - doesn’t have to lead but will be ridden handy – watch out for this one – great odds as well at $10 – a great each way gamble!
Acatour (12) is trained by Peter & Paul Snowden and is first up here. He is only a three year old colt but does have an impressive record first up and will handle the going. He also has had two recent barrier trials to get him ready for this run – some good support as well being backed from $7 to $5 for the race.
In His Stride (14) will be one of them horses coming home down the straight out wide and powering at the line. He is silly odds at $51. I will be having something on this one each way.
Chris Munce has Sharpe Hussler (17), with long priced winning jockey Ronnie Stewart, in the race. Another one at decent odds as well $41 – a genuine chance with great heavy track from and has had 4 starts at Ipswich for 2 wins and 2 placings. His last start run at Doomben was a good run. If he gets the run here may sneak a place.
Flamboyer (2) has drawn off the track in barrier 18 and will need some luck. Again a great winning record here with 2 starts and 2 wins he will need some luck from out there but we may see the best of him in a couple more weeks.
Perfect Dare (10) ran well first up – does normally race well on heavy tracks and has drawn well here.
As I said an open race for 2017 and anything can win – you may have to play wide in this one!
Selections: 1-12-14-17 rough chances 5 and 10
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Race 9 – 2017 Gai Waterhouse Classic
I like one at odds here - first up and loves the track and should handle the wet - Madame De Ban (14) around $20. Trained by Matthew Dunn and to be ridden by Corey Brown, again.
The stable mate Lucky Show Girl (10) has drawn the rails and comes of a solid win at the Gold Coast last start when she came from the rear of the field and flew late for an impressive win.
She has impeccable wet weather form and could sneak a place if they are making ground and winning. Again around $25 – she represents some value.
The Godolphin mare Kinshachi (1) was solid behind Bonny O’Reilly last start at Doomben. I just think that start she got too far back and although she made wonderful ground up on the leader I consider the run unlucky and you could be smart to overlook it.
This week drawn in barrier 3 – Damian Browne up and a great heavy and slow track record she will be right in this race!
The stable mate Maternal (5) ran in the same race and again thundered home late. She has drawn dismally in barrier 18 and it will need all of Jeff Lloyd’s skill to get her across into a nice spot here to feature in the finish.
Patricia Gesler and Kelso Wood have scratched Criquette (13) from an earlier race to focus on this harder assignment. She has a 100% record at Ipswich with 2 starts for 2 wins both on slow going.
Michael “Muppy” Hellyer reunites with the stable and she may be one at some value!
Gai Waterhouse has one nominated as well – Slumber Party (17). It loves to lead but not sure how she will go in the wet conditions – she has the services of front running jockey Tegan Harrison and has drawn barrier 7. She may lead this lot for a long way!
Selections: 14-1-5-10 rough chances 13 and 17
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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)
4,13,16 / 2,6,8 / 1,3,6 / 2,3,4,18 - cost is $108 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9)
3,4,8,9 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,10,12,14,17 / 1,5,10,14 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3.9 / 1,3,7 / 1,12,14 / 1,5,14 - cost is $54 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,9 / 3 / 1,12 / 1,10 - cost is $8 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,3,4,7 / 1,10,12,14,17 / 1,5,10,14 - cost is $80 to $1
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Jockey Challenge
This week I am tipping a win to Corey Brown.
Best Bet
Race 7 – Sort After (3) around $3.60
Roughies
Race 4 – Acceptile (1) around $14
Race 5 – Sir Donald (3) around $5
Race 8 – Shiraz (1) around $10
Race 8 – In His Stride (14) around $51
Race 9 – Madame De Baan (14) around $20
Good luck and good punting!
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State of Origin 2 next Wednesday – looks like NSW will wrap the series up 2 – 0 for 2017.
That will ruffle some feathers but who cares! Seven changes – and seems like the team have tested positive for drugs as well in recent days – traces of WD40 have been found in the QLD camp – seems as if they are all struggling getting around the field in their wheelchairs!!
The tipping competition between Winno and Josh Fleming continues this week – with 2017 Stradbroke behind us last week where Josh grabbed another victory.
I still lead 5 – 2 (I let him win last weekend to give him back some confidence). This weekend he will probably try and put some more pressure on – he has been sledging and talking himself up all week – maybe he will have to don the NSW clobber next weekend after we win the 2017 Series!
Blue is definitely your colour Josh!
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