WINNO'S WINNERS: SUNSHINE COAST, JULY 1

By Darren Winningham | Friday, June 30, 2017

Last week WINNO jagged a few winners and was able to tip Jim Byrne in the jockeys challenge – so something for the punters – great odds as well $5

This week we are heading north up the Bruce Highway to the Sunshine Coast Racecourse where there is some possible rain forecast for Saturday. The track is currently rated “GOOD” and the rail is 2.0 metres out the entire circuit.

This week we have the Sunshine Coast Guineas as the feature race with a great support program featuring the Caloundra Cup and Glasshouse Handicap.

Whilst you are all heading north I have decided to head to the Gold Coast Turf Club for the day to sharpen my camera skills in preparation for the Grafton Carnival that starts next Thursday with the Cup Prelude. In coming weeks Winno will release some news about his next venture to a feature Carnival – a first or horseracingonly.com.au!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

An open field in the opening race.

There has been some serious support for the Toby Edmonds trained three year old Sundance (5) who has been confidently backed from $12 to $7 since markets have opened – he is to be ridden by the inform Jim Byrne. I think he has to be considered. With that support you much show respect.

I like one here that is looking for a hat trick of wins – Sir Donald (7). He has three wins from four starts over the 1000metres distance. He is a great gamble each way at $6. I see that Jeff Lloyd has been booked for the ride this week as well.

Darren Beadman trains for Godolphin as he gets closer to handing over the reins to James Cummings. Has snuck one up from Sydney who has been running on wet tracks and I think if he gets a good surface should improve here this weekend. That’s Badajoz (2). In saying that he doesn’t win many (3 wins from 16 starts – with 9 placings). Note the key booking of the “King of the Sunshine Coast” Damian Browne for this one here. Looks like a hard race to start the program but there may be some value in my tip.

There is some serious speed in this race. It would not surprise me to see the old stager Sony Legend (1) sit off them and come wide in the straight. The 1000 metres is the only drawback I have here.

Misery (4) drops back in class this weekend as well – another one to note. A great record here at the track with two wins for two starts and Tiffani Brooker is back aboard this weekend.

Selections: 7-2-5-4

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Race 2

I like the chances of Steamin’ (4) here. You can overlook the last start performance at Ipswich where I think the track brought him unstuck. Back to the big open Sunshine Coast track – look for an improved performance. The blinkers come off this week as well. I like this gear change and $5 appeals to me.

In that same race at Ipswich Courageous Rock (7) ran a great race and finished second. This week he is back on his home track and trained by Gary Duncan – look for him to be in the finish as well.

The top weight Blackjack Bella (1) should be the hardest to beat. Trained at the track as well by David Vandyke the mare has a great strike rate here.

Selections: 4-7-1-8

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Race 3

Tough race this one. I am keeping my money in my wallet.

Liam Birchley trains Natural Black (11) who has a great record here. That is the only thing I am going on with not much confidence at all.

I see that Expat Envy (8) fits into that category as well with 2 wins and a placing from 3 starts here. I think you should overlook the last start poor performance here on the heavy track. I really think he doesn’t like wet tracks. I did see him win impressively at Kilcoy first up from a spell and Mick Lakey has spaced his runs out this preparation. At the $31 he could be a great gamble each way in a tough field.

Light Shows (14) is drawn badly here and may be scratched. However, he is trained locally by Stuart Kendrick and is one that should be considered.

Bold Peak (4) returns to his home track after an unsuccessful campaign at the recent Rockhampton Carnival. Again trained locally with a great record at the track – something to keep your eye on.

Toby Edmonds has Seeking Asylum (16) running around as well. First up for the stable at Ipswich last start she really didn’t put in – maybe the tight turning Ipswich track and the track didn’t suit this four year old mare. Look for an improved effort second up for her new stable.

Selections: 11-8-4-14 rough chance 16

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Race 4 – The Bruce McLachlan Memorial

Dynastic (4) was impressive at the Gold Coast in his first start. He won over 1200m and ran some good time. This gelding is trained by Helen Page whose stable is in great form at the moment highlighted by her win with Rudy last weekend in the Tattarsall’s Cup at Doomben with Rudy. Daniel Griffin must have an opinion of this one as well as he has left the Gold Coast on Saturday to head to the Sunshine Coast to keep his association with this one.

Damn and here I was thinking I would be able to do 60 seconds with Winno this weekend with him at the Gold Coast – next time Dan!

Acceptile (2) ran a great race at Ipswich first up and back at home this weekend look for a better performance.

Bring It Home Pop (3) was good last start at Ipswich. I think you can expect a better performance back here on his home track and I think the stable has had this race in mind for this Rothesay colt. Trained by Darryl Hansen who was successful in the Ipswich Eyeliner with Monsieur Gustave – the stable is going well!

Chris Munce trains the top weight and the class runner of the field – Ours To Keep (1). He comes off a run where he has no luck at Eagle Farm. He has shown he is back after a nice trial at Doomben on Tuesday this week when partnered by race jockey Ronnie Stewart.

Selections: 4-2-1-3

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Race 5

Another open race here – a large field with many chances to choose from.

I have gone with the two that ran first and second last start here over 1000metres two weeks ago. They have both drawn wide, but I think they should be okay here and should be able to motor wide in the straight.

So I am tipping Prioritise (13) to be ridden by Anthony Allen to knock off Tversky (6) again.

I really have not a high opinion of the race but I did watch Prioritise (13) come around them and power away in the final stages last start to win his second career start for trainer Steve Tregea.

If you are looking for some roughies to throw in for your exotic bets then I would say to take a look at Secret Mo (2), Raja Ampat (3) and Clockwork Orange (9)

Selections: 13-6-3-9 rough chances 2 & 13

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Race 6 – 2017 Caloundra Cup (Listed Race)

Supply and Demand (3) from Gai Waterhouse stables in Sydney has won his last two starts impressively and is only a lightly raced four year old that looks a nice stayer in the making.

I think that if he wins this race without too much effort she may just head onto the Grafton Cup with this one on the 13 July. Joshua Parr makes the trek to the Sunshine Coast to partner this Sebring gelding and I think we may see a nice type winning here.

Self Sense (2) was super winning the Ipswich Cup two weeks ago and to be fair destroyed that field when he won by 6.8 lengths on a soft track. Maybe this is the key to this one as he seems to relish the wet conditions but he may not get those favourable conditions here this weekend at the Sunshine Coast.

Neverland (4) from the Darren Weir stable has just not performed since coming north for the campaign from Melbourne. This weekend with a dry and firm track she gets every opportunity to show that she is a promising stayer.

I really do like the Gai Waterhouse runner here and I think at around the $3 mark seem to represent some solid value – the only hesitation is that he is looking at the 2400metres for the first time in his short career.

Selections: 3-2-4-1

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Race 7 – 2017 Glasshouse Handicap

This is a great field for the 2017 HMR Projects Glasshouse Handicap.

Whilst it appears there is no standout chance with $6 the field, I am sure that there is some value to be had if you can jag the winner – trifecta and first four here – so it may be best to play a little wide.

I have no concerns about two runners here. Firstly there is The Virginian (4) trained by Toby Edmonds and to be ridden by the feature race inform jockey Jim Byrne at good odds of $7. Last start at Ipswich he was beaten by the tight turning track and really never got a clear crack at them at any stage. This weekend on the wide Sunshine Coast track I anticipate he will be given every chance.

Too Good To Refuse (5) flashed home last weekend in the W.J.Healy at Doomben without really threatening the eventual winner Burning Passion. This weekend with the step up to 1400 metres and the wide track he should get conditions to suit.

But I am going to go wide here – some may say at my own peril and tip In His Stride (12) at around the $16 mark. I cannot get out of my mind the dynamic run in the Eye Liner at Ipswich on a track that really does not suit his style of racing. This weekend I think that Paul Hammersley will be able to balance him up and come wide in the straight and really test these in the final 100 metres. Whilst he has never won over 1400metres I really think that the track and the speed in the race should see an even tempo in front and this one will benefit from this.

William Wallace (14) is the kiwi runner that was sensationally backed last start at Ipswich when he won a BM75 race over 1300 metres. Again this week since the markets have gone up some serious money has seen this gelding’s price firm from $25 to $11. Prior to that win at Ipswich he did win here over 1400 metres – so there is no issue with him with the track and distance. Will there be another feature race heading the Kiwis way this weekend. Let’s wait and see.

The other one that must get a mention is Elegant Composure (10) who has never been defeated at the Sunshine Coast with four starts for four wins. Fourth run up from a spell this weekend and trained by Chris Anderson there is a lot to like about the chances of this one. Some good support as well in the markets so far with as much as $20 being bet in early markets. She is now into $13.

Selections: 12-4-5-14 rough chance 10

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Race 8 – 2017 Sunshine Coast Guineas (Group 3)

A large field for the 2017 Guineas. Some value if you wish to play wide but I think this is all about the top weight here - Acatour (1) - trained by Peter and Paul Snowden. This one has some good form from the Easter Sydney Carnival and again, just to repeat myself, at Ipswich in the Eye Liner settled way too far out of his ground and then stormed home when ridden by Jeff Lloyd to just be beaten by 0.9 lengths. I know he is second up this weekend but seriously it was a pretty outstanding run at Ipswich and it gives me the opinion that 1600 metres second up here is going to suit this colt. He had been primed for that run at Ipswich with two solid trials as well so he has done plenty of work for the assignment. James Haron Bloodstock syndicates this one and he will be easily distinguished in the dark green and gold colours as he thunders down the straight.

The Matthew Dunn trained Zamex (5) steps up in grade here – but could not have been any more impressive winning two Highway races at Rosehill in his recent starts. Sure it is a steep class rise but he has been in superb winning form and is shooting for three wins in a row here. Jim Byrne is aboard.

Gai Waterhouse has My True Love (13) in the race. Last start she tried to lead from barrier to the post when narrowly beaten by the stable mate Prompt Return, who came out last weekend and was narrowly beaten in the Tatts Tiara (Group 1). This weekend Adam Hyeronimus takes over. She has drawn wide in barrier 20 butI am sure that they will probably want to lead and, to be fair, the 1600 metres start at the Sunshine Coast should give him ample time to go forward and take up the lead and then settle her. This one has been well backed as well - $8 into $4.80 - so I expect her to be prominent here – but can she outstay her opposition on the long straight at the Sunshine Coast?

Constantine (10) from the Chris Munce yards is another nice runner who has been working through his grades quite nicely. His last start win at the Gold Coast was with some authority and gave me the opinion that a mile will not trouble this Turffontein colt. Larry Cassidy has a 100% strike rate on this one with 4 rides for 4 wins. Someone must like the chances of him as well with some serious movement in the markets when he opened at $35 and has now been backed into $15.

Selections: 1-5-13-10 rough chances 4 & 14

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Race 9

I hope you are in front coming to the last!

Look I think that this race boils down to the form out of the Kilcoy race a fortnight ago. I was at the track that day. The track was a genuine heavy on that day but I can tell you there was some serious unlucky stories in the race that was won by Where’s Thatdragon (4) who was ridden by Jarrod Woodhouse on that occasion – in fact his first ever Cup winner!

The race was probably unlucky for two fancied runners on the day – those being Reigning Thunder (5) and Oradonna (11).

Reigning Thunder (5) was knocked over twice and really to finish third was quite a nice run. Matthew McGillivray jumps back on this weekend and he has ridden the gelding three times for two wins and a second, so he will be giving it every chance and hopefully keep him out of trouble. Some nice odds as well with $15 on offer presently.

The one I like is Oradonna (11) to be ridden by Robbie Fradd and trained by Lindsay Gough. Again she had no luck at Kilcoy and this weekend, third up on a nice surface and a wide track, I think she is sensational value each way at $11. I am buoyed by Fradd jumping back aboard here this weekend – a 100% place strike rate (7 rides, 4 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third) – PLUS at the track 8 starts for 4 wins and 2 seconds. I like this one to get us some good coin in the last!

Matthew Dunn has another live chance here in All Summer Long (3) who has been well supported as well firming from $7 to $5.50 in the markets. In his last run he carried 60 kilograms here and was narrowly beaten when I really think the weight got the better of him in the final 100 metres.

Real Ego (12) rounds out my selections in the last – it was drawn wide last start at Ipswich and made an impossible sustained run over 1350 metres and still fought on tenaciously to finish third. Again not drawn here well but on the larger track watch for him late.

Now if it rains – and the track gets into the heavy range – this is one for you! Where’s Thatdragon (4) thrives in the wet conditions and it was a great win at Kilcoy. Did the track conditions aid this win? We will need to look at his performance this weekend and get the answer!

Selections: 11-5-3-12 rough chance 4

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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)

1,4,7 / 4,8,11,14 / 1,2,4 / 2,3,6,9,13 - cost is $180 for $1

Quadrella (races 6 to 9)

2,3,4 / 4,5,10,12,14 / 1,5,13 / 3,5,11 - cost is $135 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

3,4 / 4,12,14 / 1,5 / 5,11 - cost is $24 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

3 / 4,12 / 1 / 5,11 - cost is $4 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 9)

4,5,10,12,14 / 1,5,13 / 3,5,11 - cost is $45 to $1

Jockey Challenge

This week the field looks like a win to the Queenslander Jim Byrne! If you are looking for some value Jeff Lloyd and Michael Cahill may be genuine chances.

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Best Bets

Race 6 – Supply and Demand (3) – around $3
Race 8 – Acatour (1) – around $4.40

Best Roughies

Race 7 – In His Stride (12) – around $16
Race 9 – Oradonna (11) – around $11

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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno will continue this week.

Winno leads 6 -3 at this stage.

Make sure you check our tips and the terms of the competition on Facebook this weekend.

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Next week is the start of the Grafton Carnival on Thursday. I will try and get some selections up – they may only be numbers – but let’s hope for some good wins at Grafton on 2017.

Winno will be on course at Grafton for everyday of the Carnival – so if you want to go 60 seconds with him come up and say hi!

Good luck and good punting!

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