WINNO'S WINNERS: THE GRAFTON CARNIVAL, JULY 9
By Darren Winningham | Saturday, July 8, 2017
SOUTH GRAFTON CUP DAY 2017
Well it is GRAFTON CARNIVAL time 2017.
Day two is the Grafton Toyota South Grafton Cup Day – HRO will be in attendance across the entire 2017 Carnival.
Day one was the Westlawn Finance Day. I walked the track and the track is in wonderful order in preparation for the five days of racing that conclude on Sunday 17 July.
The main feature races are:
2017 Grafton District Services Club Ramornie Handicap on Wednesday 12 July.
2017 McKimms Real Estate Grafton Cup on Thursday 13 July 2017.
This is my 31st year going to the Grafton Carnival and I always look forward to this time of the year!
This year it will be sad for me a little as leading bookmaker and good friend Con Searle will not be at the track this year – his first miss of the Carnival since he first started fielding there in 1975.
It will not be the same sledging at the call of the card and State of Origin night – but he assures me that he will be back bigger and better in 2018!
The highlight of Day 1 for me was the two sensational rides by Ronnie Stewart. The first on the Paul Murray trained Termele in the John Carlton Cup and then in the next race on the Chris Munce trained First Crush in the Westlawn Finance Grafton Cup Prelude.
Whilst the nominations for next week’s feature races are not finalised I think that these two winners will get into the races with minimum weights and will be extremely competitive.
On a unfortunate note – Ronnie Stewart will not be able to ride either of them as he commences a holiday after riding at Doomben on Saturday 8 July thanks to the stewards.
This Sunday at Grafton the track should be rated “SOFT”.
The rail is out 3 metres from the winning post to the 1600 metres and 3 metres from the 1200 metres to the winning post and is in its true position for the remainder of the course.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Tough race to open the program – a maiden/Class 1 over 2215 metres.
Ekspress King (2) from Matthew Dunn yards at Murwillumbah looks well placed here – and is to be ridden by Robbie Fradd. I think you can overlook the last start failure at the Gold Coast on a heavy track – he just didn’t appreciate that bottomless track.
The only danger I can find is Gallant Girl to be ridden by Kasie Stanley who ran a great race in maiden company last start at Doomben. Back on her home track this week the form reads well for this assignment.
Selections: 2-12-4-3
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Race 2
The topweight here looks well placed and is well drawn – Latitude (1) trained by Neil Godbolt and to be ridden by Belinda Hodder.
She has been placed 8 times from 11 starts and just cannot seem to break through – last start at Newcastle she looked to have every chance but just was run down late.
Matthew Dunn has another nice chance here in Race 2 – Vivid Pink (5) a Sebring filly that has been transferred from the Hawkes team in Sydney to his Murwillumbah stables. Her recent barrier trial at Doomben looked good for this run.
If you want a local runner here to get on at around $20 I have found Gypsy Aria (10) trained by David Graham on the track and to be ridden by Carla Dougherty – with 3 kilos off as well!
I think you can forget the last start failure on a bottomless heavy track at Coffs Harbour and go on her previous run here where she was run down on the post when a $6 chance.
Selections: 1-5-10-2 rough chance 4
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Race 3
Another maiden over 1106 metres.
Looks like ex local jockey Anthony Allen has a live chance on the David Pfieffer trained Devious (1) – has drawn well and has been racing consistently. He led last start at Nowra and was run down late – hopefully Anthony can get this one home for the punters!
The danger looks like the Gold Coast based, Bruce Hill trained Dubawi Sniper (8) who has drawn barrier 2 and will strip better for his last start defeat at the Gold Coast over 900 metres.
Bearly Thinking (7) is a locally trained two year old – she knows the track and will handle the soft conditions.
Selections: 1-8-7-9
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Race 4
Gold Coast trainer Toby Edmonds brings Impregnable back to Grafton after she won her maiden race here in April. Since then she has had a nice trial at the Gold Coast and looked pretty forward in that run – she won the trial well too!
South African rider Robbie Fradd takes over from his country man Jeff Lloyd this weekend – she is a solid favourite at $2.
The others look an even bunch with no real standout – so the favourite does look the one to beat here.
Accede (10) from the Coffs Harbour yards of Jim Jarvis could be one that shows up at odds here – she should strip fitter from her first up run at Coffs Harbour on a heavy surface. Maybe one with some chance of showing some improvement.
Selections: 1-4-10-2
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Race 5
The first leg of the Quaddie this weekend – a tough affair as well!
I am going for the Gold Coast trained Blake Street (1) at some good odds of around $12 – this one is trained by David Kelly and to be ridden by the New Zealand rider making his way in South East Queensland – Racha Cuneen.
I have watched him ride a couple of times in the past few weeks and he rates them well!
David Pfieffer has Tearaway Charlie (7) first up here and has had a good hit out in a barrier trial at Hawkesbury about 3 weeks ago. I am certain that he has trained on well since then and looks well placed here.
I Too Can Dance (3) is trained by Daniel Want on the track at Grafton – to be ridden by local jock Ben Looker who always seems to get the best out of the local ones over the Carnival. He will get the distance and looks well placed.
Selections: 1-7-3-11 rough chance 4
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Race 6
This is an open affair – not a race a really like.
Charles The Third (3) is to be ridden by Jason Taylor. He ran a solid race first up at the Gold Coast – he does race off the speed and this big open Grafton track may mean JT can bring him wide and make a sustained run in the straight.
Jazzy Ruler (7) won well last start at Beaudesert – maybe she can go on with it here on Sunday. The horse that ran second to her in that race is engaged here as well – so I have put him in as a chance – Wig Wam Bam (8).
But seriously – you may be best advised to take the field here in your Quaddies – it looks a race of danger.
Selections: 3-7-8-10
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Race 7 – 2017 Grafton Toyota South Grafton Cup
Sofin (1) the topweight looks well in here. Looks a great chance for local jockey Ben Looker to take a feature race over the Carnival.
I think you can forget about the run at Port Macquarie last start on that tight turning and small track. Back here to the wide Grafton track – look for an improved performance.
Darci’s Affair (3) is from the Paul Murray stables at Kembla Grange – the stable already has taken out a feature race on the first day when Termele in the John Carlton Cup on Thursday. Robert Thompson who loves this Grafton cicuit has been booked for the ride.
Carry on Jake (8) is a local chance trained by Paddy Cunningham – drawn wide should not be a problem as he will race off the speed and make his run late and wide.
Baroque Girl (10) is trained on the track by Scott Henley The sting out of the ground and the distance should suit – she has been well backed since the early markets opened being backed from $31 to $17 since the markets have opened.
Selections: 1-3-8-10 rough chances 12 and 20
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Race 8
This last race is another lottery – so I hope you are in front coming to this race!
Star Fest (11) is my selection to be ridden by the 2016 Grafton Cup winning jockey Peter “Pistol” Graham.
His last three starts have been on heavy surfaces – I think back on the better soft going this weekend we will see the best of this Brett Bellamy trained gelding.
There are other chances in an open field.
Legs Unbarred (4) who likes to bowl along in front and set the tempo in a race – the mare is very dour and may just get away here – but the big long Grafton straight may be her downfall.
Bruce Hill has Toronto Flyer (7) engaged – he has gone with a senior jockey for this assignment and has booked Robbie Fradd for this race.
Destiny’s General (19) is an emergency – if this Steven Phelps trained gelding makes the field he may be a genuine chance here.
Selections: 11-7-4-13 rough chance 19
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
2,4,12 / 1,5,10 / 1,7,8 / 1,4,10 - cost is $81 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
1,3,7,11 / 3,7,8 / 1,3,8,10 / 4,7,11,13 - cost is $192 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
1,7 / 3,7 / 1,3 / 4,7,11,13 - cost is $32 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
1,7 / FIELD / 1,3 / 4,7,11 - cost is $168 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
3,7,8 / 1,3,8,10 / 4,7,11,13 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockey Challenge
Looks like a win to South African born Robbie Fradd – but keep your eye on the odds for Ben Looker – he may be some serious value here!
Good luck and good punting!
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