WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 12
By Darren Winningham | Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Day three is the Grafton District Services Club (GDSC) Ramornie Day – HRO will be in attendance across the entire 2017 Carnival.
The big Ramornie Calcutta and the traditional Grafton Cup call of the card will take place at the Grafton District Services Club from around 7pm on Tuesday 11 July 2017 – Winno will be in attendance trying to jag a horse!
South Grafton Cup Day was amazing with a track upgrade to GOOD after the first race. The track staff have really worked hard to get this track ready for the Carnival.
There is some forecasts for light showers on Wednesday and Thursday this week – let’s hope they stay away!
This Wednesday at Grafton the track should be rated “GOOD”.
The rail is in its true position for the entire track on Wednesday. I am thinking that the 3 metres that will be exposed in the straight will be used by the jockeys early on – I would say on the speed and along this line may be the place to be. However, as is tradition they normally come wide and deep in the Ramornie – every horse will have its chance!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to final scratchings, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
So we have few unraced runners here so keep your eyes on the markets and any moves for them.
I am tipping the solid duo of John Smerdon and Luke Rolls from the Gold Coast to start off the day with a win with Regnant (10). The filly won a recent trial at Doomben – looked impressive in that win and this trainer has a great first up strike record.
Blackberry (7) is trained by Wayne Nugent and her first up run at the Gold Coast over 900 metres was full of merit – flashing home late to be beaten just under a length. That race has turned out to be a good form race so this may be some value here.
Two locals worth a mention are Hidden Storm (2) trained by Shane Everson and Porn Star Pete (4) trained by John Shelton. These two met at Coffs Harbour on a bog heavy track – overlook those runs is my tip – back on a good surface and on top of the ground – they should fill the placings.
Selections: 10-7-2-4 rough chance 5
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Race 2
This race has many runners that ran last Thursday in the Grafton Cup Prelude. I think that form will be strong as it was a competitive race. However, I have gone for an invader, Avroson, from the Brett Cavanough stables at Scone.
Last start he won well over 1600 metres at Gunnedah and, previous to that, he had a victory at Dubbo over 2200 metres. He is on a short back up as well winning that race just last Friday – Josh Adams makes the drive north to Grafton to keep his association with this gelding.
In the Cup Prelude last Thursday it looked like a certain victory to Push The Sky Away (5) but he she was run down late by First Crush (engaged in the Grafton Cup on Thursday) and Kilmarnock (3) to be beaten by only 0.3 lengths in a close blanket finish.
Defence Witness (7) trained by Daniel Want rounds out my selections – he was in the Cup Prelude as well and will probably back up well after that run.
Selections: 2-5-3-7
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Race 3
Looks like trainer Brett Cavanough has the opportunity to get an early race to race double here with his runner Al Cubana (3). His last start at Rosehill in a Highway Handicap was good enough to win this. My only concern is his pattern of racing is usually settling and coming home late and I cannot see much genuine speed in this race.
Hurricanes (1) ran second here last year in the Tursa Guineas at around $25 – it was a good run – so he has some form here at the track but has a massive 61.5kilograms to carry - but he looks like he has been working up to running this distance and is third up from a spell here.
Great Job (2) has won a maiden and then a Class 1 race so comes to Grafton looking for a hat trick of wins here. Trainer Tracey Bartley usually produces one over the Carnival – this may just be the one!
Selections: 3-1-2-4
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Race 4
The 2017 Tursa Inglis Bonus Guineas – normally a very competitive race each year.
This year we have a small but competitive field.
Gold Coast trainer Toby Edmonds brings Sneaky Glance (2) back to Grafton after a recent win here. Since then he has won over 1660 metres at Doomben and looks well placed.
Constantine (1) has a large weight. He is trained by Chris Munce and had strung a couple of wins together before stepping up in grade in the Sunshine Coast Guineas where he was not disgraced being beaten by 4.8 lengths.
Gai Waterhouse has a lightly raced Sebring gelding making this trip to Grafton looking for a win as well. She trains Sebrarian (3) who will probably set the speed in front and may prove difficult to run down.
Liam Birchley, who normally launches an assault on this Carnival each year has a Show A Heart gelding in the race – Fit For Purpose (3) to be ridden by Corey Brown. Last start he raced over 1660 metres at Doomben (in fact the same day as Sneaky Glance) and ran good time in the Class 1 race. This is a slight step up but I think he will be competitive here and probably will just sit off the speed.
Looks like a Queensland trifecta! They better had win something as NSW will win Origin later on Wednesday night!
Selections: 2-1-4-3
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Race 5
This is an open race to start off the Quaddie.
I am tipping the David Kelly trained Miss Parkin (5) who posted a win here on 1 May.
I think that the two recent barrier trials suggest that this filly is ready to frank that form and she should be a reasonable price.
The favourite for the race is Don’t Play Around (2) from the Bevan Laming stables. She will probably lead here from barrier 1 and will prove difficult to run down. She comes back from a recent run over the Rockhampton Carnival, however, I am not certain she will run out this 1100metres here.
The Canberra runner, Fraternator (3) looks like one that could step up as well. She won well on debut at Orange and then stepped out in Canberra and I thought she was unlucky. Since then she has had a break and ran a great trial two weeks ago at Canberra – she is ready for this run first up!
Selections: 5-3-2-10
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Race 6
Mr Chow (8) had a recent stable change and came out and destroyed a field in Maiden company at Toowoomba. He likes to lead and set the speed – that may be his only downfall here with the long Grafton straight. He will be ridden by the very personable apprentice Nick Keal who rode him in that win.
Brett Cavanough again has another runner engaged here – Yours Mine Ours (1) who has been racing consistently and drops back in grade here but pays the price in being forced to carry 63.5kilograms. With only 3 wins from 30 starts and 17 placings – I think he will be more likely to fill a place again.
Silent Statue (10) is another runner for the John Smerdon and Luke Rolls combination. He is a five year old shaping up for his third career race start – only lightly raced. Whilst there is no official barrier trials for this one my Gold Coast spies tell me that he has been working well in the lead up to this run. There are some nice odds on offer as well at $15.
Radiologist (14) is resuming here as well. He recently has won two barrier trials in dominant form – he may be a real surprise packet in this grade!
Selections: 8-10-1-14 rough chances 6 & 7
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Race 7 – 2017 Grafton District Services Club Ramornie
James Cummings has taken control of the Godolphin team and he launches a two prong attack on this race with Badajoz (7) and Mogador (11) - both should be respected in this field on their latest performances.
Badajoz (7) won very well last start at the Sunshine Coast over 1000 metres. Whilst the win was dominant he has never won over 1200metres. Mogador finished fourth in last year’s Ramornie beaten just 0.7 lengths – he was going a lot better this time last year than what he is now.
Ron Quinton brings another runner to Grafton to win the Ramornie. I think the last time he actually had a runner was in 2001 when Juggling Time and apprentice Mitch Newman won this race. This year he has Boss Lane (2) and up and coming apprentice Andrew Adkins to ride – can history repeat itself?
I think both The Monstar (1) and Boss Lane’s (2) chances depend on a rain event hitting the track. I think these two are both superior in heavy conditions.
Larry Cassidy has been booked to ride the Peter & Paul Snowden trained Flippant (3) who comes of an impressive run in the W.J.Healy at Doomben. Cassidy will be looking for his maiden Ramornie win! He has been able to ride three Grafton Cup winners; 1990 – Stirring, 1991 – Rural Prince and 1996 – Praise Indeed.
The stable mate is Calanda (14) to be ridden by Jim Byrne. After an unlucky Brisbane Winter Carnival campaign this runner headed to Sydney and won at Rosehill over 1100metres. Do not be concerned with this – he will run a solid 1200metres. Has drawn nicely and with the speed in the race looks like one that will be flashing late.
Mount Nebo (4) will not know himself here this week with only 54.5 kilograms under Quality race conditions. He may prove to be one at some odds with a genuine rough chance – he raced in the 2016 Ramornie and was only beaten in the shadows of the post by 0.8 lengths.
Londehero (10) is my other value runner. Just not sure what has occurred this preparation but he is better than he has shown. Last start in the W.J.Healy he got too far out of his ground – it could pay to overlook that run and on a good track and some speed on in this race he could place here.
Lastly, the enigma Lucky Tom (9). He can race well fresh and gets in with a nice weight. Tegan Harrison always seems to get the best out of this Harold Norman trained gelding.
It is an open race – there could be some value here – especially if we get a Good track to race on.
Selections: 3-14-10-4 rough chances 7 & 9
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Race 8
Natural Black (8) looks well placed here by Liam Birchley. However, it needs a good track – it does not go all that great on wet tracks.
Splinter (6) is another one looking for a dry track here on Ramornie Day as well and well benefit from the claim for apprentice Carla Dougherty.
Dustman (4) resumed from a spell last start at the Gold Coast and ran up to the Grafton trial prior to that run winning over 1200 metres. The way he ran home so strongly last start suggests that he will come with a barnstorming run late here on the big open Grafton straight. Scott Galloway keeps the ride here.
Glitra (1) won well last start at Taree – looks well placed here again – whilst up in grade and down in weight and will represent value for those alive their Quaddies come the last race!
The emergency Smart Devil (15) may be hard to hold out as well if he gets the run. I have always had an opinion of this one ever since I saw him win his maiden race at the Gold Coast – but just has not gone on with it. Maybe this wide large Grafton track will suit – and he has the inform Jim Byrne booked to ride.
Selections: 8-6-4-1 rough chance 15
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Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
2,7,10 / 2,3,5 / 1,2,3 / 1,2,4 - cost is $81 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
2,3,5 / 1,8,10,14 / 3,4,10,14 / 1,4,6,8 - cost is $192 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
3,5 / 8,10 / 3,7,10,14 / 4,6,8 - cost is $48 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
3,5 / 8,10 / 3,14 / 6,8,15 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
1,8,10,14 / 3,4,10,14 / 1,4,6,8 - cost is $64 to $1
NSW Big 6 (races 3 to 8)
1,3 / 1,2 / 3,5 / 1,8,10 / 3,10,14 / 4,6,8 - cost is $216 to $1
Jockey Challenge
No jockey challenge tip at this point as some riders have not been declared – but Josh Adams could be some value on the rides he is currently booked for. Corey Brown seems to have a good book as well.
Good luck and good punting!
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