WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON JULY 13 - CUP DAY
By Darren Winningham | Wednesday, July 12, 2017
Day four of the GRAFTON CARNIVAL is the 2017 McKimms Real Estate Grafton Cup Day.
HRO will be in attendance on track.
This Thursday at Grafton the track should be rated “GOOD”. The rail is in its true position for the entire track at this stage.
The 2017 Cup field looks great and the traditional last race on Cup Day - the sprint – the Kirby looks an amazing field.
It was great to catch up with trainer Dwayne Schmidt on Sunday at the South Grafton Cup to remind him of his glory days as an apprentice – he rode a winner in the Kirby as an apprentice (1989 - Secret Flash) and has trained a winner in 1996 – The Glen ridden by Dwayne’s apprentice at the time, Joe Ashton.
I might be corrected but I would think this is the only person who has completed this feat.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to final scratchings, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Local trainer Stirling Osland has Prada Miss (4) nominated here. I remember the amazing run behind Candika at Doomben in late April. She has had one other run in a much higher grade. Has had six weeks off – back on her home track – get on here!
Lolly Shoppe (2) is trained by the 2016 Grafton Cup winning trainer Sally Taylor. She is looking to get another win in 2017 on Cup day with this mare who last start won on a heavy track at Coffs Harbour.
This is an open race to start 2017 Cup Day.
Selections: 4-2-1-3
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Race 2
This is a tough race – an even bunch with many chances.
I think that Clever Blaze (5) is a great gamble here – back from Group 1 racing to a Class 1 grade she is well placed here by the Laming stables.
I would draw your attention to the local trained El Teniente (6) who was sent out at $51 last start at the Gold Coast. It was a barnstorming run from the rear of the field wide on the track under Ben Looker only to go down in a photo. I am certain that the three year old gelding won’t be that price here this week and I am sure that with the long straight he will be motoring home late.
Les Kelly on the Gold Coast trains Snapchat Girl (10) – only a two year old, who broke through for her maiden win at the Gold Coast last start. Down on the minimum here she may just put back to back wins on the board.
Selections: 5-6-10-1 rough chance 2
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Race 3
This race may be determined by the reserves of the field getting a run – Malvern Estate (17) and Passion Estate (18). I think they both have genuine chances if they make the field.
Otherwise, the local trained Clang’s Victory (9) is second up here for the in-form Daniel Want stables. He has had some good results over the Carnival so far. Elite Dubleo (10) is chasing a hat trick of wins. His last two starts have been on heavy tracks but he has shown he has form on all surfaces. The boom apprentice Cejay Graham takes a valuable 3 kilograms off this runner as well – so he gets in well here.
Foxy Walk (13) won a recent barrier trial in powerful fashion at Ballina – has a great fresh record – drawn the middle of the field and will be in this for a long way.
All in all – an open race this one – my tips represent some value, however, as I say, show a healthy respect for the emergencies if they make the field.
Selections: 9-10-17-13 rough chances 2, 4 & 18
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Race 4
The BIG MAIDEN – a maiden race with elevated prize money. Another great initiative from the CRJC over the Carnival – and this race is always hotly contested.
Metallic Moon (2) from the Paul Murray stables is my tip with no real confidence. It is just he always gets them ready and targets this Carnival each year with his runners.
Bryan and Daniel Guy have an ex-Hong Kong runner nominated here – Dreamscope (1). This runner was unlucky at the Gold Coast first up when beaten a nose when the jockey reportedly could not ride the horse out in the final 100metres as his whip got caught in the reins. He looked very forward that run and I think he was a touch unlucky not to get the chocolates on that occasion.
Chris Munce has Argie Bargie (3) for the Dynamic Syndications team. She will appreciate the big open Grafton track and is second up here with Larry Cassidy to ride.
Richford (10) is the interesting runner – transferred from Melbourne to the Marcus Wilson stables at the Gold Coast. He has had a solid recent barrier trial at Doomben and normally races handy in his races – which may suit the tempo in this race.
Snooze Ya Lose (6) was great in her debut run at the Sunshine Coast – may be one at some odds here to follow.
Selections: 2-1-10-3 rough chance 6
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Race 5
This is the Carnival’s two year old feature race for 2017.
Gai Waterhouse has made a gear change by removing the blinkers for the first time from her runner – Runaway (5). This may sharpen this colt up for this run.
Absolutlypositivly (7) was solid on debut at the Gold Coast winning her debut run – the stable has a big opinion of this one! Then she went to town and raced in the Winning Edge Stakes (Listed Race) and didn’t really perform. My mail was that she got her tongue over the bit – this week a tongue tie goes on – looked for an improved performance.
Midweek Hussler (3) was dynamic in winning a maiden race on Sunday in open company over 1106 metres. Matt McGuren let him settle, find his feet and then made a bold run along the rails to storm home and go away from them in the straight. It was a great run and was probably enhanced by the speed that was on in that race – not sure how he will measure up here, but winning form is great form!
Pricing Power (10) from the Toby Edmonds stables had been running around in Listed and Group races and finding the grade pretty tough – then last start she went to Ballina on a heavy track and destroyed a small field – I think that she may go on with it here now she has experienced how to win – watch out for this one here and she should be some great odds!
Imperial Eagle (2) has won his last two starts, is trained by Allan Denham and has the services of Robert Thompson who has ridden him to both those victories. The times were not that bad either on heavy tracks.
This is an open race here so scout wide and go hard in your first leg of your Quaddies!
Please note the serious support for the Jenny Graham runner Victorem (6) to be ridden by Ben Looker – a strong tip from Grafton. I have left it out of my top four here but she is a wonderful trainer and does have success each year over the Carnival.
Selections: 5-2-3-7 rough chances 1, 6 & 10
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Race 6
This race is always a tough race – a Class 6 Plate conditions.
I am going to tip the two winners from the Thursday (Day 1) of the Carnival here.
I was all over Termele (9) last week in the John Carlton Cup when given a twelve out of ten ride by Ronnie Stewart to salute at around $14. He is suspended and Michael Hellyer takes over this week. He will give this one every chance and I think we still may get a reasonable price about this one come race day.
This race is always the medium of plunges with horses being backed to win the race, so keep your eye on the market movers on race day and the morning of the races.
The other runner is Nardoo (14) – trained on the track by Brenden Mackay. I will probably be disowned for tipping it second here (I really do hope it wins for this bloke and the connections). The run last week was amazing – drawn 18 – topweight 60.5kilograms – had a lot of things against it. It has bad legs but when she hits form and her legs hold up she can match it with the best of them.
Again Cejay Graham jumps aboard and that may be the defining factor here – that 3 kilogram weight relief may see this one very difficult to run down with only 52.5kilograms on her back this week. She maps well here too – but she does love to lead - I know she can be ridden off the speed and fly home – either way she is a serious contender here!
Just for the record Brenden has had two runners at Grafton over the years, both times I have walked up to him and declared them both – one won at $30 and this one won last week at $7 – I will be hunting you down again Mr Mackay. I won’t declare here but she is going to give this lot a run for their money.
So in typical WINNO fashion – I am bracketing Termele (9) and Nardoo (14). There is so much irony here – we are all great mates Brenden, Michael “Muppy” Hellyer (who rides Termele) and myself – either way we will all be happy for each the other regardless of the outcome!
Liam Birchley has Havasay (10) here. This is a serious race horse so do not underestimate the chances of this one either – he goes well and in this class will be extremely competitive. The barrier trial at Doomben was nothing to brag about but this one does always turn in a nice effort first up.
Jonny Ge (5) rounds out my top 4 here – a recent Gosford winner with a wonderful career record of 6 starts, 4 wins and a second. This Adam Duggan trained gelding can gallop – do not leave this one out!
This is an open race. It always is very competitive and has a great interest in the betting ring – so if you like another one – make sure you back it!
Selections: (9-14)-10-5
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Race 7 – 2017 McKIMMS REAL ESTATE GRAFTON CUP
Well I declared Supply and Demand (2) last start in the Sunshine Coast Cup – everyone said he would not run out a solid 2400metres – how wrong they were! He backs up here at the Grafton Cup – goes up 4 kilos for that win – that is my only concern here in the race but he was so commanding in his win at the Sunshine Coast and so strong at the end it could just see Gai Waterhouse win her fourth Grafton Cup in the last twelve years – a pretty impressive record!
Chris Waller’s representative Montauk (3) was dour last start over 2400metres on a soft track at Rosehill. He does meet Supply and Demand (2) better at the weights for a couple of narrow defeats, however, Supply and Demand (2) has gone onto win – where this one has not.
Feltre (4) had a hit out between races last weekend at Doomben to get him ready for the Cup run. Michael “Muppy” Hellyer gets back aboard this Brian Smith trained gelding – he will be hoping for a ‘Good’ track surface to enhance his chances. I think in that last start in the Tatts Cup at Doomben he was held up at a vital stage. He is the type of horse that needs to get his momentum and continue to build on that – so he may have been disadvantaged last start.
In the same race - the Tatts Cup at Doomben – More Energy (9) finished second to the winner Rudy, whilst Morendi (5) was flashing home to run a solid sixth, beaten by 1.6 lengths in a blanket finish. Again, with Morendi, he needs a dry track to show his best – any rain – that may be the end of his chances.
If you are looking for some serious roughies away from the favoured runners I will tip you two here. The first is the Chris Munce trained First Crush (11) who came out and won the Grafton Cup Prelude last Thursday. He was ridden a treat by Ronnie Stewart, however, due to a suspension, Stewart has been replaced by the King of the Coalfields – legend rider Robert Thompson. Robert will be looking for his second Grafton Cup winner after he rode My Star Sapphire for his father in 1981.
The other one is the Allan Kehoe trained Get On The Grange (11) who was dynamic last week at Doomben and after the race would not have blown out a candle. It was a dominant win in restricted grade and he steps up here to open company – longer distance as well – but I tell you what, if he has trained on and eaten up after that run he is a real show here this week. Josh Adams has picked up the ride in the Cup.
Selections: 2-10-11-3 rough chances 4, 5 & 9
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Race 8 – 2017 KIRBY SPRINT
This race is dominated by the Godolphin Badajoz (1) who, whilst it is nominated for the Ramornie, may take his place in this field as he has drawn better in this race. However, he will have to lump 61kilogams to win this race – a tough assignment. But he is all class and is flying at the moment.
Plateau Gold (2) won this race last year and has been prepared for a first up win again by astute Coffs Harbour trainer Jim Jarvis. He won a recent barrier trial at Taree in good time. He is drawn a little wide and likes to lead – so he will be in front for a long way. But he may just set the race up for a lightweight to fly home late. Jim has another runner here as well – Cannizarro (12) who loves these short sprints and drops 8 kilograms on his last run.
The interesting runner here is Aimalac Millie (9) who is another speed machine and can run time. Back in April she ran 56.04 over this distance at this track – that would be a time hard to beat here if she can turn out a performance like that.
Lady Jetsetter (6) has won at this track before. She always races best fresh and is well placed here. She has had a recent barrier trial at Doomben where she was impressive. Robert Thompson takes the ride – look for a solid performance – sitting just off the speed and working home late from barrier 5.
Lucky Meteor (7) is locally trained by John Shelton. He just loves this track (4 wins and 2 placings from his 6 starts). He is drawn a little wide in barrier 10, but has the services of Ben Looker who has had a solid few days over the Carnival so far.
Selections: 9-1-2-12 rough chances 6 & 7
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
1,2,4 / 5,6,10 / 9.10.13.17.18 / 1,2,3,10 - cost is $180 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
2,3,5 / 5,9,10,14 / 2,3,10,11 / 1,2,9.12 - cost is $240 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
2,5 / 9,10,14 / 2,10 / 1,2,9 - cost is $36 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
2,5 / 9,14 / 2,3 / 1,2,9 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8
5,9,10,14 / 2,3,10,11 / 1,2,9.12 - cost is $64 to $1
NSW Big 6 (Races 3 to 8)
9,10,17 / 1,2 / 2,5 / 9,10,14 / 2,3,10 / 1,2,9 - cost is $324 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This is a tough day – if you are looking for value Robert Thompson and Josh Parr are my tips. Depending on the fortunes of Badajoz in the last Corey Brown could be hard to toss as well.
Good luck and good punting!
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