WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, JULY 22
By Darren Winningham | Friday, July 21, 2017
DOOMBEN – SATURDAY 22 JULY 2017
Last week we were able to jag a few winners and there was some solid racing at the Sunshine Coast.
The end of the 2016/17 season is fast approaching and I will do a review of the season in coming weeks.
This week we are back at Doomben the track should be rated as “SOFT” with the likelihood of no rain and forecast heavy dews in the morning. I am thinking we may see an upgrade of the track at some point. The rail is in the true position this week.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Snapchat Girl (4) was impressive over the Grafton Carnival – she looks an impressive type that may go on with it here this weekend. Ryan Plumb to take the ride for the Les Kelly stable – the run at 1400m at Grafton gave me the opinion that she will relish the mile.
Real Princess (7) just didn’t fire last start – may pay to overlook that run and maybe the extra distance here we will see a distinct improvement. Jim Byrne who is in great form takes the ride.
Brando (5) I think will improve on a firm surface this weekend – should be great each way odds.
This is a tough race to open the program – not one that I am real keen on.
Selections: 4-7-5-2
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Race 2
A BM75 over 2200metres – do they want a punter to bet?
I Feel Good (3) was a super run behind Get on the Grange here last start. This form has been franked when Get on the Grange came out and ran a gallant second in the 2017 McKimm’s Real Estate Grafton Cup. I think he is one to follow here..
Splendid Stryker (10), trained by Brad Herne, won a race over 2215m over the Rockhampton Carnival – I did see this one win a race at Kilcoy and I think he is in solid form and could be one to test this lot here.
The Aiden Nunn trained Brilliant Jet (6) steps up in grade and distance this weekend – however, I see that Matthew McGillivray who rode the gelding to a win at the Gold Coast retains the ride. Matthew has been in scintillating form in recent months riding winners consistently – nice each way odds of $7.
Chris Waller has Loving Home (1) engaged. He is the early market favourite but was soundly defeated last start in the race won by Get on the Grange that I previously mentioned. I think this one is just a plugger but maybe with a little more speed on this week we may see him driving home late here.
Selections: 3-10-6-1 rough chance 13
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Race 3
Another two year old race – the card just keeps getting harder!
Timperley (5) has been well backed since the markets opened – supported with some confidence from $11 to $6. This Bryan Dais trained colt made an exciting debut when he won at Rockhampton – where there is smoke there maybe some fire!
Personally, I cannot go past the Aiden Nunn trained Tale of the Fox (4) who won first up at Grafton – the time was very fast for the 1006m and jockey Paul Hammersley did say that he would take some benefit from the win and the run – so at the silly odds of $23 I am tipping this one each way!
La Vida Loca (13) is trained by Tony Gollan. Robbie Fradd won a trial on this filly on 11 July – drawn real nice here barrier 1 – this could be one out of the box. She has been well backed as well in the early markets.
Lastly, the Ben Currie trained Pure Luck (1) is looking for a hat trick of wins stepping up to Saturday class this week after a win at the Gold Coast and then Rockhampton – this one will race handy and Josh Oliver will ride.
Selections: 4-13-5-1 rough chance 18
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Race 4
Wow ... Powerful Saga (6) trained by Helen Page at the Gold Coast has been sensationally backed from $12 to $4.40 since the markets have opened. If this one wins I am certain that John & Helen will be sure to be celebrating at George’s Paragon at Sanctuary Cove!
I like the last start winner here over the track and distance – Khalama (7). Sure she is up in grade here but I think the win will boost her confidence and she may well go on with it this weekend.
Denarius (5) normally races well fresh and has been given a few trials in preparation for this first up run by Brian Wakefield. Andrew Spinks will be aboard here and he has ridden this gelding to victory previously.
The other one I like - and this one could be some good value - is the Danielle Cunningham trained, Aimalac Millie (5) who was sent out at favourite in the last race of the Grafton Carnival, the traditional Sir James Kirby sprint. She was only beaten by 0.42 lengths in a blanket finish after hitting the lead in the straight. That form could be useful here this weekend. She has drawn the middle of the field in barrier 7 and should be handy in the running.
Selections: 7-3-5-13
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Race 5
I am going to tip the topweight here – Backslapper (1) - with Stephanie Lacy looking to ride her first Saturday winner. This Steve Tregea trained gelding looks well placed and gets in well with the 3 kilogram claim for Stephanie. In fact I may declare this one!
Magic Diamond (12) for Matthew Dunn is second up here and does have a second to Tumbler to her record. I think if she runs up to that form she will be right in this race.
Malvern Estate (7) has been nominated in races in recent weeks – and has not made the fields. Desleigh Forster I think has a nice three year old here and drawn in barrier 1 may take some running down here in this race.
Selections: 1-12-7-2
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Race 6
The first leg of the Quaddie on this Tattersall’s sponsored program this week.
I think this race is between my top three selections.
Irish Constabulary (4) was narrowly defeated last weekend at the Sunshine Coast when he carried 62.0kilograms – this weekend he is down in the weights and does race well here.
The one I have some healthy respect for first up is the Tony Gollan trained Frespanol (3) who does race well fresh and could be the knock out chance. His two recent barrier trials at Doomben over 1000m have nicely topped him off for this race. I think he could be a great each way chance at $20 – I am coming for these odds at the track on Saturday!
The other chance who has been in great consistent form is the Kelly Doughty trained Flamboyer (2). I suppose I will have to endure the ribbing from stable strapper Luke Milligean for the QLD lucky win in Origin at the track – but I can face up to his nonsense!
Selections: 3-4-2-8
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Race 7 - Sky Racing Tattersall’s Mile
Crack Me Up (3) comes off a great win in the Sunshine Coast Guineas and looks well placed here with the conditions of this race. A change in jockey this weekend with Michael Cahill taking over from Damian Browne – nothing lost here and this three year old gelding trained by Liam Birchley is going to be hard to toss.
I have been tipping Madame De Ban (9) for a few weeks now. I think that the track should get to “Good” for the weekend – if we see the track improve I really do think we will see the best of this mare. Last start she was drawn wide and had to be ridden forward. I really do think she is best ridden off the speed and allowed to power home late. I suggest she may just get the opportunity this weekend to be ridden this way – great odds will be on offer here as well at around $21 – something each way for me!
Lani Fancourt is back aboard Sheiswhatsheis (2. She loves to lead on this one and has a great record aboard this Tony Gollan trained mare. I am just worried that she may have a little too much weight and the speed may suit the back markers – however, this mare is as tough as nails and won’t lie down!
Selections: 3-9-2-4
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Race 8
This race has a fair few scratchings in it – that means some of the emergencies will make the field.
So I have no confidence in the race what so ever.
For the record let’s go Shipwrecked (12) as I think it will appreciate the better racing surface it will find here this week. Monster of Energy (4) trained by Brian Smith ran a great race last start here behind Bushy - looks well placed here and is a danger with Jeff Lloyd aboard.
The others you can take your pick! Not a race I really want to have a bet in to be honest.
Selections: 12-4-8-9 rough chance 6
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Race 9
This must be the toughest race on the day. Very open – so many chances.
Prioritise (2) has been in great recent form and looks well placed here. The recent run at the Sunshine Coast was full of merit where he defeated Care to Think (4) who he meets here. I thought there was nothing between the two of them here again and then noticed that Prioritise (2) has drawn wide in barrier 16 whilst Care to Think (4) has a great draw in barrier 3. So I have swung to the latter and think that this may be the deciding factor.
Bred for Luck (15) is trained by Troy Pascoe and has won her last two starts on provincial tracks. She comes to town this week and with the claim for apprentice Lani Fancourt and I think she could run a bold race and sneak a place.
I found a couple of roughies here as well – just in case you want to scout wide in the last race. The first one is Rhyming (8) who is the stable mate to Prioritise (2) and has drawn well in barrier 6. I thought the run in the Queensland Guineas was good form for this race. She then went to Rockhampton and was sent out as favourite and didn’t fire – maybe the track or the journey up brought about the downfall. I suggest strongly you overlook that run and with a 4 week break she may just run well fresh here and at around the $10 mark represents solid each way value.
The other one I like is Smart Devil (13). I have always had big wraps on this one, but he is just a rogue. Bevan Laming must be tearing his hair out with this one and when they find the key to him he could be anything. The run at Grafton over the Carnival was awesome – in fact I thought Jim Byrne had timed his run to perfection and got up in the final bound – but alas he got beaten by a nose in a lengthy photo finish.
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Selections: 4-2-8-15 rough chances 13
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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)
3,6,10 / 4,5,13 / 3,5,7 / 1,7,12 - cost is $81 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9)
2,3,4,8 / 2,3,9 / 4,8,12 / 2,4,8,15 - cost is $144 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,4 / 3,9 / 4,12 / 2,4,8 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,4 / 3,9 / 4,12 / 2,4 - cost is $16 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9
2,3,9 / 4,8,12 / 2,4,8,15 - cost is $36 to $1
JOCKEY CHALLENGE
This week the field looks like it is a genuine battle between Jim Byrne and Jeff Lloyd – I am going Jim – go you good thing!
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BEST BETS
Race 1 – Snapchat Girl (4) - around $2.80
Race 4 - Khalama (7) - around $4.40
Race 5 - Backslapper (1) – around $5
Race 9 - Care to Think (4) around $4
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BEST ROUGHIES
Race 3 – Tale of the Fox (4) – around $23
Race 6 – Frespanol (3) – around $20
Race 7 - Madame De Ban (9) – around $21
Race 9 – Rhyming (8) – around $10
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THE TIPPING COMPETITION between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno is resuming again this weekend – I have had a tough few weeks with Queensland winning Origin and then the Broncos smashing my Bulldogs on Thursday night. Things have been grim!
But this week I am going to seek revenge and towel up the cocky Josh Fleming! So stay tuned to Facebook on Saturday morning for our shared tips. To be fair despite our rivalry and jokes we both have been in solid form in recent months – so if you are a follower of our tips you would be in front
Good luck and good punting!
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