WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, JULY 29

By Darren Winningham | Friday, July 28, 2017

Last week WINNO was on fire ... with all four of his best bets saluting and, in the jockeys challenge, Jim Byrne getting home at some decent odds!

Just to bask in the glory this is what I tipped as Best Bets last week:

Race 1 – Snapchat Girl (4) - around $2.80
Race 4 - Khalama (7) - around $4.40
Race 5 - Backslapper (1) – around $5
Race 9 - Care to Think (4) around $4

If you took an all up around $245 to each $1!

I also landed a fifth winner when another top selection Crack Me Up took out the featured Tatts Mile ... so I had five winners in all!

So a huge thanks to all the messages that I received last weekend!

This week we are back at Doomben the track should be rated as “GOOD” and a warm day is forecast for Saturday. It could be a great day to come to the course – fine, warm weather and a ten race program. The rail is out 2 metres the entire course this week.

Now let’s get into this marathon ten race program!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

This is a tough race to start the day.

Really Reilly (4), trained by Steven O’Dea, is drawn well and ran a nice race first up so, even though the gelding has a poor second up record, I will put it on top.

Deitch (7) doesn’t win often but has run two consecutive second placings in similar company. He probably is a due for a change of luck and has drawn well in barrier 1.

Toby Edmonds and Jeff Lloyd partner together with Seeking Asylum (14) who showed an improved performance last start at the Sunshine Coast.

The one that has my interest here and is around $10 in the markets is Jadedfox (16). This filly normally performs well third up so I am looking for an improved run this start. Drawn barrier 16 she may need some luck but in some previous runs she has been able to settle off the speed and make a run late – there looks to be some genuine pace in the race so this may suit her.

Overall this is a race where I will be eating my lunch and contemplating the rest of the day.

Selections: 4-7-14-16

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Race 2

A two year old race here – some unraced – some raced ... oh Mr Handicapper what a mess!

I am going for a Cabeirian (5) trained by Kelly Doughty on the Gold Coast. This one recently had a solid hit out in a barrier trial at Ballina, has drawn well in gate 3 and has the services of Michael Cahill who rode a great treble last weekend at Doomben . At $6 I think we can back this one each way.

Last weekend Timperley (4) was seriously backed in the early markets being smashed from $11 to $5 before being sent out at $3.10 on race day. The run was good - there were plenty of excuses for this one last weekend - and I think we should overlook that run and with the quick back up this weekend trainer Bryan Dais must be happy with his condition.

I see that Racha Cuneen, a jockey from New Zealand who has come to Queensland to make a name for himself has been given the ride. Don’t be worried about this engagement. This bloke rides well and if he wins you will see a big smile when he returns to scale!

Matthew Dunn has Snitz (2) nominated. I saw this gelding win at Grafton first up back in March and I thought he had some ability. His subsequent runs were both full of merit and he could be tough to beat here.

Whypeeo (8) is from the Toby Edmonds stable. This gelding makes his debut here after winning a trial at the Gold Coast on 10 July in good fashion. He has drawn wide in barrier 17 but has the services of the leading jockey of the Brisbane 2016/17 season – Jeff Lloyd. This one was scratched last weekend. Maybe he is ready for a win this weekend?

Selections: 5-4-2-8 rough chance 6

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Race 3

This is another open affair.

Nardoo (8) from the Brenden Mackay yards at Grafton won well over the recent Grafton Carnival. He then backed her up the week after over 1200 metres. Was it just the distance that beat here that start? Was it the quick back up? Or was it just the circumstances of the race?

Well, whilst I am no expert I think that back to 1050 metres here and with Matthew McGuren to ride we may just see the best of her! She has drawn wide but she is very good out of the gates – can race off or on the speed and at around $17 I think she is great each way value.

The other one that has grabbed my attention is the Caroline Allardyce trained Amber Jewel (13) who has a wonderful first up record with 3 wins from 3 starts. Caroline’s son Jimmy Orman takes the ride here as well and has ridden her for three wins – she is a real speed machine and at $10 represents good value in this open field.

The class runner of the field is Misery (1). This one is trained by Darren Bell and comes back in class this week but goes up in weight. I don’t think he will get an easier race to win if he can carry the massive weight of 61.5kilograms.

My last selection is one at $61 – I have not gone mad either! Temunjin’s Queen (14) trained by Matt Kropp and to be ridden by Ruby Ride will carry 51kilograms – a weight reduction of 11 kilograms on her last run at Dalby. She has drawn well here and has a great second up record. I am just wondering whether Ruby takes this one to the lead and with no weight on her back may run the others into the ground.

Again a very hard race – maybe I will just be taking photos at this point!

Selections: 8-13-1-14 rough chance 4

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Race 4

Another one of this staying races – this week over 2000 metres – and again a race normally you can sit and enjoy a beer and enjoy the warm sunny conditions!

It is a lottery!

King Viv (6) trained by Kim Waugh at Wyong makes the trip north to Doomben. In his last two starts he has settled off the speed and made up ground late coming home and finishing outside the placings. This is his first time over the distance but I really do think the way he has been racing he will be suited here. Jeff Lloyd has been booked for the ride so they must be hoping for a better performance this week.

Tegan Harrison may be able to get Brigadier (11) to pull out another solid performance here this week. You can rest assured this one will get the distance, is very fit and down on the minimum and at $10 will test the favourite.

As for the rest – toss a coin and see what happens!

Selections: 6-11-4-2

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Race 5

Lascar (2) ran a great race first up at the Sunshine Coast. He has a good second up record and looks well placed here by trainer John Meagher.

There have been two runners well backed since the markets opened in this race. Some serious support for both Pinolino (8) backed from $9.50 to $5.50 and Sweet Adaline (15) backed from $7 to $3.50.

Pinolino (8) won last start here over the mile in a Class 2 race. The run was solid but she has been up a while this preparation. Sweet Adaline (15) is trained by Bryan and Daniel Guy and gives the impression that she is looking for the mile on review of her past two starts.

Again this is not a race that I am keen on.

Selections: 2-8-15-6

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Race 6

Last weekend Rhyming (5) went around in the last race and ran a super race behind the eventual winner Care to Think over 1350 metres. I think this weekend over the mile we may see the best of this Steve Tregea trained filly.

The danger is the Ben Currie trained Real Mystique (3) who has an impeccable record over the mile winning four from five starts. She has won her last two starts – one at Rockhampton and the last one on her home track at Toowoomba. I really cannot split these two, however, I think with barrier 2 for Real Mystique (3) and the chance to race on the speed I will just put this one on top.

I see that Josh Oliver takes the ride. He must have pulled up okay after being bashed up in the jockey’s bout in Toowoomba last Saturday night!

The horse that Real Mystique (3) beat at Rockhampton goes around here as well - Winning Kiss (8). This one is trained by Lindsay Hatch and Matthew McGillivray has retained the mount. At Rockhampton she powered home late just failing to run down Real Mystique (3). Things maybe different here this week!

Selections: 3-5-8-1

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Race 7

Wow ... we have waited a while for the first leg of the Quaddie this week.

Kubis (3) is an underrated galloper in my opinion – trained by Robert Heathcote who has been overseas having an exciting time in Europe according to social media posts.

Last start Kubis was defeated by Eat My Trust (1) who he meets again here. There is a 2 kilogram turn around in the weights this weekend and although he is drawn horribly in barrier 16 I think he may be able to get in from the 1600 metre start and race forward. I just hope that Michael Cahill doesn’t get caught three deep and get no luck.

Reset Me I’m Wild (5) is from the Richard Laming yards. This gelding could not have been more impressive than what he has shown in his only two career starts, winning both times in good fashion. The stable has an opinion of this one and I think drawn well in barrier 5 – with the in-form Jim Byrne legged up - he could be real hard to toss here if he makes the transition to Saturday class.

The topweight Eat My Trust (1) was just amazing last start when he destroyed the field last start here at Doomben – when Matthew McGuren descended on them at the 200 metres mark and he pressed the button he just stormed away and made the opposition look second rate.

I just wonder whether the handicapper has got the better of him this weekend with the 59 kilograms. McGuren has a great record on this one win five rides – 4 wins and a second on him – sometimes a winning combination like this can beat the handicapper – only time will tell!

Selections: 3-5-1-7 rough chance 4

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Race 8

I originally had a few different selections here. They all seem to like wet tracks and have solid wet track form. So I have swapped them all around and relegated them below my top selection Lordag (9) – maybe this one is named after my tipping competition colleague – Sky Channel’s Josh Fleming – as he is Lord of the Dags!

His good mate and fellow Queenslander Jimmy Orman is aboard here. I am sure I will get a special salute if this one wins the race when he returns to scale! This one ran a great race first up – has solid second up form and I think is over the odds at $17. So something for the punters here. Each way all day!

Now for my other few selections. The Sydney raider Inz ‘n’ out is trained by Gerald Ryan. To be fair this one has the form and the ability to make a mess of this field but I am just concerned about his form on good tracks. I have always thought he runs his best on wet tracks. Look I may be proven wrong here.

The other one I like is the Paul Butterworth trained Counter Meal (12). Again he did win nicely over the Rockhampton Carnival and yes it was on a “good” track. econd up he was solid behind Irish Constabulary. He does have a reasonable third up record – so he may just get home late here and fill a place.

I would not be surprised if Dee Nine Elle (10) comes out here this weekend and wins this race either – she is a good mare trained by Tony Gollan and has just been racing ungenerously lately. This weekend she has a gear change with the blinkers coming off and the winkers on – watch out for an improved performance!

Selections: 9-4-10-12 rough chance 2

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Race 9

This must be the toughest race on the day. Very open – so many chances – a two and a three year old plate race!

Seriously with he set weight conditions of this race there is one that stands out . I haven’t tipped this one on top for a while but I like him this weekend and I hope the wonderful owners will forgive me – OINK (2) to win for mine!

Sorry Mrs Keiley Bell. I hope I haven’t put the mock on you, but I will be at the track to get some photos of your special horse this weekend ... and a word of advice for strapper Heidi Whalley – make sure you smile!

Prioritise (1) was solid last weekend. I just thought the 1350 metres found him wanting so, being brought back to 1200metres this weekend, look for a more dominant run.

I must give you a leg up for the Toby Edmonds trained Impregnable (5). I was at Grafton over the recent Carnival down there where this one missed the start and looked like it was going to struggle – and home he stormed down the outside under the urgings of Robbie Fradd on that occasion. This weekend his South African mate Jeff Lloyd takes the ride – he is shooting for a hat trick of wins in this race.

Ben Currie has Publishing Power (5) in the race. He was dominant last start at the Sunshine Coast – this weekend from barrier 17 he may find this lot a little harder to beat!

If you want one that has been backed – the Tony Gollan trained Of The Day (11) has been backed from $20 to $11

Selections: 2-1-5-4 rough chance 11

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Race 10

This race is as open as they get – there are a few early scratchings as well so this could be a hard race to assess with the emergencies getting a run.

Last weekend I declared Backslapper (17) and he got the chocolates to give Stephanie Lacy her first metro win! I think drawn well again this week –and with the claim for Steph – we may just get another win here. The race is open and she does face some stiff opposition so I am not as confident this week!

Havasay (10) was real impressive at Grafton – no jockey has been declared in the early fields – so I am not sure whether he will take his place in the field, plus in eight starts here at Doomben he has only managed a few placings and never won here.

Now the three that come out of the Grafton Carnival that punters should be wary of ... they are: Lucky Meteor (1) trained by the wily Grafton based John Shelton. Three Sheets (3) trained by Jeremy Sylvester who ran a solid sixth in the Ramornie and Espiritu (5) trained at Ballina by Stephen Lee who flashed home in a blanket finish in the Sir James Kirby sprint and just went down.

Out of these runners I think that Espiritu (5) is the one to follow. This mare has a great second up record and has won four races here at Doomben. Jeff Lloyd takes the mount – his last ride for a week or so after copping a holiday last weekend from the stewards for his ride on Powerful Saga (7).

On that note Powerful Saga (7) was backed well last weekend in the pre post markets and there has been no early money this week for this Helen Page trained runner. He has never won over 1200 metres so maybe this may be the challenge this weekend.

The Tony Gollan runner Agapantha (18), from barrier 4, should ensure there is some solid speed in the race as well. Maybe, after ten races, his stable apprentice Lani Fancourt can dominate in front and make it hard for the opposition to run her down.

Selections: 17-5-10-18 rough chances 1, 3 and 7

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Early Quaddie (Races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)

1,8,13 / 6,11 / 2,8,15 / 3,5,8 - cost is $54 for $1

Quadrella (races 7 to 10)

1,3,5 / 4,9,10 / 1,2,5 / 5,10,17,18 - cost is $108 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

3,5 / 4,9 / 1,2 / 5,10,17 - cost is $24 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

1,5/4,10/2,5/5,17 - cost is $16 to $1

Treble (races 8 to 10)

4,9,10 / 1,2,5 / 5,10,17,18 - cost is $36 to $1

Best Bets

None this week – too tough!

Jockey Challenge

This week it looks like a genuine battle between Michael Cahill and Jeff Lloyd – I am going Cahill this weekend. After his great treble last weekend I think he may just go on with it and he should be a good price!

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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno is back on again this week!

After a drubbing last weekend by Winno – Flemo has declared he will be back bigger and better this weekend. We are both is scintillating form with our tips so make sure you tune in on Facebook this weekend to see our ongoing battle!

Good luck and good punting!

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