WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, AUGUST 5
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, August 3, 2017
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Last week WINNO was out of luck.
I did warn you all that the meeting was very hard and the races were very open.
The track at Doomben will be rated as “GOOD” and the rail will be out 4 metres this weekend.
This week at Doomben we celebrate the National Jockey’s Trust Day featuring the Tim Bell Memorial race – race 2 on the program.
Unfortunately WINNO will have to miss this meeting at Doomben. He has left Queensland in search of some warm weather and he has headed to the Northern Territory and the Darwin Turf Club for the 2017 Darwin Cup Carnival.
So good luck and good punting at Doomben – I will be doing a preview for the meetings in Darwin on Saturday featuring the Bet365 Palmerston Sprint and then the Darwin Cup on Monday!
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Race 1
This is the first three year old race of the new racing season.
Most of these runners ran around a fortnight ago in the race won by Snapchat Girl.
I did say that start that Real Princess (4) who had a gear change for that start would run a better race – and she did!
With much the same opposition here I think she is a good thing in the first race of the program.
The only other case I can make for a runner is the Bryan and Daniel Guy trained Diomedes (1) who led in that race from a wide barrier and just wilted late. This week he has drawn nicely in barrier 2 and with the rail out may lead all the way and prove difficult to run down. Looks a nice quinella here!
Selections: 4-1-2-5
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Race 2
The Tim Bell Memorial race over 2200metres – I could tell you lots of yarns about this young man.
He was an absolute talent and a true gentleman taken from us all in such tragic circumstances prior to us ever seeing the best of him. To his family and friends, I do wish I was at Doomben to celebrate this race and his glorious memory. Mr and Mrs Bell, my love to you both and have a drink for me!
Two weeks ago the Michael Costa trained Stanley (6) franked a great win at Grafton with another win at Doomben with no weight on his back. He could well win again.
The challenger in my opinion is Get on the Grange (1), who won here and then went down and ran a gallant second in the Grafton Cup at his next start. Despite the 61.0kilograms here, on the dry track he may just be too good for them here. The winner last year of the Grafton Cup came out and won a similar race with a similar weight. Will history repeat itself?
The other place getters should be the two Chris Waller runners – Loving Home (2) and Devil Hawk (3).
Selections: 6-1-2-3
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Race 3
This race has already been decimated by some early scratchings.
Looks like an early win for the Toby Edmonds stable with his runner Chloe’s Comet (8). She won her last start at Ipswich and I think she has some ability and will go on to win here.
The danger is the David Vandyke trained Skillful (5). This gelding won a midweek Class 3 race at the track three weeks ago. Again, he looks a nice type and will be competitive in this race.
Selections: 8-5-4-1
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Race 4
This is a tough race.
I have settled on the Tony Gollan trained Extrasay (10) who was impressive first up and has a very good second up record. The current odds of $10 appeals to me as well – with Robbie Fradd aboard looks like a good chance.
The NSW invader is the Kris Lees trained Star Reflection (2) who comes off some solid wet track runs in Sydney. I think that she will appreciate the good surface this weekend at Doomben and will be in the finish for sure.
I see Billy and Dale Healey have Our Story (9) engaged. She is second up here and has a poor second up record with no placings from four starts. There must be some stable confidence in her improving dramatically here though as she has been well backed since the markets opened firming from $8 to $5. I am sure to be in trouble for not tipping her on top this week – apologies in advance Billy.
Selections: 10-2-9-5
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Race 5
This race looks a race in two between the Tony Gollan trained runners – Sheiswhatsheis (2) and Pindan Pearl (5). I think this week that apprentice Lani Fancourt will be able to dominate in front with her mount Sheiswhatsheis (2) whilst the wily Jim Byrne will be stalking her and not getting too far back before having a crack at her in the final 100metres on Pindan Pearl (5). It really looks like a Gollan quinella!
Glendara (7) was a great run in the Tatt’s Mile last start. I think this Barry Baldwin trained gelding should be able to find a place here this weekend.
Explosive One (8) resumed last start at Grafton over an unsuitable distance of 1400metres – look for a solid improved run here at Doomben.
Selections: 2-5-7-8
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Race 6
This is the first leg of the Quaddie.
The Stephen Lee trained Pleased (13) turned in a super run last start at Doomben when beaten by 3 lengths by Care to Think. He settled off the pace and swept home late and looked a touch unlucky in the straight. I think the 1600 metres this week will suit him and we may see a win for this stallion who is new to the Lee stables. I think the odds of $9 are silly – hook into them early!
Gypsy Miss (15), from the Stuart Kendrick stables on the Sunshine Coast, is a chance here on her last start run behind Meet and Greet – again some decent odds on offer - $7! Do not leave this one out of your Quaddie.
The Danny Bougoure trained Rogali (3) has some nice form behind Religify over the Winter Carnival. He has not won here in 7 attempts and doesn’t win out of turn – but looks well placed this week.
Selections: 13-15-3-5
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Race 7
Care to Think (5) has been scratched – this was my standout selection. The race has now become as open as the Sydney heads!
I think Patronising (3) now gets in with a good winning chance – although he has not won over the 1350 metres at Doomben.
Mishani Sleuth (4) has been racing consistently and since the scratching of Care to Think has been solidly backed into favourite for the race. Again he has been racing in good form but last start may have suffered from second up syndrome but, then again, this runner also has a poor third up record.
Yaba Dabl Doya (2) ran a solid race last start powering home behind Cornrow in what was an open race. His style of racing may see him out of sorts here this weekend with the rail out so far and runners on the speed maybe having a slight advantage.
Alassak (7) has always shown some ability. I think last start, when he was beaten by Care to Think (5), he was a touch unlucky. I think he will run a better race with the reduced weight and the better barrier.
Desleigh Forster has Malvern Estate (11) stepping up in grade. This gelding is a nice type as well and despite the rise in class there is a massive drop in weight which should assist his chances.
So after all the review of the runs and the form ... after my first choice was scratched ... I am officially stuffed! I really have no solid selection for this race.
For the record my numbers are below.
Selections: 11-7-4-2 rough chance 3
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Race 8
This is a very competitive race. A number of these runners have been nominated for a number of races in recent weeks and scratched due to poor barriers and other reasons.
I like the previous form of the Robert Heathcote trained No Annamossity (14) who is first up here from a spell. He looked pretty forward in a recent barrier trial win at Deagon. Damian Browne is aboard for this first up assignment – with $5 on offer. There is a lot to like here and drawn barrier 2 will be given the run of the race.
The old foe Tony Gollan has a nice one engaged as well – Ignite the Light (7). This gelding ran a great trial at Doomben and then came out and demoralised a Class 1 field at Ipswich first up when he won by 6.8 lengths! He looks well placed here for his first Saturday assignment in town.
Then you have two that won over the Grafton Carnival. Havasay (1), who is trained by Liam Birchley, was impressive first up at Grafton winning in a fast time. The race was run to suit him that day with plenty of speed on and this allowed Michael Cahill to sit off them and then sprint away in the straight with a dominant win.
Toby Edmonds has Impregnable (2) engaged. He missed the start at Grafton when resuming and somehow rounded the opposition up late and stormed away for a solid win. Since that run he has come out and won again at Ballina. He is working well through his grades and could well show up here.
The mystery runner for mine is Lifesaver (8). It would not surprise me to see this Matthew Dunn gelding show up and give him a race to race double. I was at Murwillumbah to see this one win his maiden at his first start in December 2016. He then went on to win next start at Doomben midweek before suffering a slight injury which has sent him to the paddock for a break.
He looks like he has some ability. He resumes this weekend - however, has had a solid hit out in a barrier trial at Deagon in which, ironically, he was soundly beaten by on top selection No Annamossity (14). I would keep this one in your black books in case he shows up around the Northern NSW areas in weeks to come.
Selections: 14-7-1-2 rough chance 8
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Race 9
The last race of the day – phew!
Probably the hardest race of the day as well.
Tumbler (7) resumed last start at the Sunshine Coast and ran a great race. Second up here and he does have a reasonable second up record so he should prove tough to beat.
The danger I think is the Kelly Schweida trained Stella Ombra (10) who returned to form with a big win on the same day at the Sunshine Coast over the 1200 metres. He has drawn well here again this week and could be the hardest to toss here in the last race.
I went wide for my third selection. I thought this one ran a great race first up and looked a touch unlucky – that is Denarius (13), trained by Brian Wakefield. He gets back to a distance more to his liking – 1200 metres – and has a gear change as well this weekend with pacifiers going on for the first time. Look for a massive improved run here.
Irish Constabulary (3) has been racing very consistently. This week with a 3 kilogram claim for Stephanie Lacy riding for her new boss Sheila Laxon & John Symons – he probably will not get a weight relief like this again – he is a genuine chance here.
Selections: 10-7-13-3 rough chances 1, 4 and 6
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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)
1,6 / 5,8 / 2,9,10 / 2,5 - cost is $24 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9
3,13,15 / 4,7,11 / 1,7,14 / 3,7,10,13 - cost is $108 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
13,15 / 7,11 / 7,14 / 3,10,13 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
13,15 / 11 / 14 / 3,7,10 - cost is $6 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
4,7,11 / 1,7,14 / 3,7,10,13 - cost is $36 to $1
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Jockey Challenge
This week the field looks like it is a genuine battle between Robbie Fradd and Jim Byrne– in fact I have them finishing on equal points. Maybe have something on both of them!
Best Bets
Race 3 – Chloe’s Comet (8) – around $4
Race 8 – No Annamossity (14) – around $5
Best Roughies
Race 4 – Extrasay (10) – around $10
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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno is back again this weekend.
Josh had a great win last weekend – whipping me to be honest (see I can be humble mate) – well done on a tough day of racing!
Good luck and good punting!
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