DAZZA’S DARWIN DECLARATIONS – DARWIN CUP DAY
By Darren Winningham | Sunday, August 6, 2017
Reporting live from the Northern Territory – it is hot! Damn Hot!
I have been out and about getting the good oil for the Darwin Cup meeting. The meeting is scheduled to be run in fairly warm conditions – 33 degrees of warmth!
The track is rated “GOOD” and the rail in the true position so it looks a great day for the Carlton Mid Darwin Cup Day.
On Saturday there was some feedback that there was a fast lane along the rails. This was evident in a couple of the early races. Then in the feature race the Bet365 Palmerston Sprint, and the last race, the winners came down the middle of the track. According to the locals this is what we should probably see on Monday – horses coming down the centre of the track or leading and winning.
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I was at the Darwin RSL for the 2017 Darwin Cup Calcutta – a $72,000 Calcutta. There was some serious money around for the Calcutta. The two that were heavily backed at the Calcutta were Leider (11) that went for $12,500 – Billet Doux (12) that went for $14,000. Then Ryan Shinn, brother of Blake Shinn showed some confidence in his brother’s mount Unbreakable (8) and bought it for $8,000.
So here goes – the first time ever – DAZZA’s DARWIN DECLARATIONS for the DARWIN CUP!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
A small field with limited chances to start off the day. The race could be decimated by scratchings as a number of these runners are backing up from solid runs on the weekend.
I am going with one that stayed home and probably sweated in the stables whilst the others raced – Razor Time (2) to be ridden by NSW visiting rider Koby Jennings. He is lightly raced with a good record over the distance. I think we may load up on this on in the first!
The two that ran on Saturday are Global Icon (5) – there was some good money in the betting ring for this one on Saturday so there should be confidence again. Personally, I think the 1100 metres on Saturday tested this Tayarn Halter trained gelding. He will be better suited back over the 1000 metres of this race.
Roughly (6) was went out favourite in her race on the weekend. Probably didn’t really race in the best part of the track so, again back in distance but up in grade and a reduced weight - look for an improvement.
Selections: 2-5-6-4
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Race 2
Moot has won his last two starts. He looks well placed here for the Lightning Plate in this small field.
I think he will just be too good.
As for the placings – probably daylight and the rest of the field here!
Selections: 1-3-2
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Race 3
This race has some early scratchings.
I think it is between two chances – Jackanory (2) and Arrow Lane (5).
Veteran jockey Stephen Ridler had a win on Saturday and is riding in good form. He takes the ride again on Jackanory (2). He is looking for a hat trick of wins.
Arrow Lane (5) is to be ridden by the maestro from the west – Western Australian jockey William Pike.
This should be a great battle to watch down the straight if these two peel off and are in the finish!
Selections: 2-5-9
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Race 4
Multizone (1) has a great second up record. He ran a great race first up on July 22. The time was very fast and I think with three weeks off we will see the best of him this run.
Going Gaga (5) has had two runs in Darwin – last start winning his maiden in what could be considered a slow time. If he has trained on from that win and can improve again this run he will be right in the finish here. Michael Hickmott from Murray Bridge has had a good Carnival so far so this must be given a chance.
Macon County (9) didn’t fire last start – could not see any reasons on the video for the flat performance. His prior two starts were solid. It may be worth putting him in for a place on trust.
Selections: 1-5-6-9
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Race 5
This is a tough race – may be well worth standing back and watching them run around.
I do like the chances of Woogie (10) who is to be ridden by the 2017 Palmerston Sprint jockey Raymond Vigar.
This one is second up here and has a great record second up. He has drawn wide here but I think there will be some good speed on. This should allow Raymond to come wide and fast like he did when he won the Palmerston Sprint on Niccoco.
Moonlight Hussler (8) ran well here last Wednesday and backs up quickly. I think he may jag a place.
Eva’s Day (11) is a non winner at the Fannie Bay track. Her last few starts have been solid and ahe will probably be well placed in the run and can find a place from barrier 1.
Rakitiki (14) has three wins at the track. He has been getting into the placings and has been backed up quickly over the past few weeks with again another quick back up after running last Wednesday – but he is down in weights and may just relish that relief.
Selections: 10-8-11-14
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Race 6
Murphy (8) won well on Saturday – not sure if he will back up here. If he does he may be a serious chance after the great run on Saturday.
Marbel Duke (7) is looking for three wins in a row – he steps up this start to 1300metres. If he can handle the increased distance he should be competitive, however, in two previous starts over the distance he has failed.
Heart of Red (2), a visitor from Alice Springs, registered a win here last Wednesday. His win last week was good enough to suggest he will be hard to toss here.
Perpetual Miss (12) was a good tip from the track on Saturday. They say that the mare had a solid performance in a similar grade on her debut run in Darwin. In her next start she ran a gallant second to Niccoco (who won the feature Sprint on Saturday). I suppose that places her in good stead or this race!
Idalia’s Dream (6) is trained locally by Gary Clarke – has the services of William Pike – so I will throw him in as a rough chance for a place.
Selections: 2-12-7-6 rough chance 8
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Race 7
I think I may declare this one – Folk Tales (3) if it starts here and not in the 2017 Darwin Cup (Race 9).
Blake Shinn is aboard this Richard Laming runner. He won on his debut at Fannie Bay, before stepping up to 1900 metres. I think that he is better suited over the mile – so load up!
Quantum Dot (1) has won his last two starts here over the mile on the track. He must be respected with that form. He likes to race forward as well so barrier 14 may test him, however, he has been able to settle and make a run late at them in the past.
Aussie Jack (4) won last Wednesday over 1300 metres. He has good form over the longer distances and also has previously performed well with a short back up. I give him a place chance here.
Pot Black (12) is one to note. Trained at Kyneton he has 5 wins at this track and is third up here – look for a bold performance with the in-form Jarrod Todd aboard this one.
Selections: 3-1-12-4 rough chance 6
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Race 8
Last start Wicked Promise (5) defeated Naming Rights (12) over 1600 metres.
I think that this time out, over 1900 metres, Naming Rights (12) can turn the tables and win!
Kifaah (3) has been building up to this distance with some solid runs over a mile in his last two starts – look for an improved performance.
The topweight Cha Chang (1) is the class runner of the race and has got a large weight but has drawn well in barrier 2 and has the services of William Pike – ticks a few boxes and should be given the run of the race. He will have no dramas in running out the distance either.
Selections: 12-1-5-3 rough chance 13
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Race 9 – 2017 CARLTON MID DARWIN CUP
After a marathon day and in the fading sunlight I am looking forward to witnessing my first Darwin Cup on the Fannie Bay track!
Let’s hope I can find you the winner!
Billet Doux (12) just looks the one to beat here. Winning form is good form – down in the weights – drawn well – I am talking myself into this one. It is the early favourite for the race and has the local Stephen Ridler to ride him.
I have heard everyone tipping it and then some serious money came for it at the Calcutta. I just can’t bring myself to tipping it on top. II probably will be proved wrong!
So I am tipping the Michael Hickmott runners to quinella the race. Lieder (11) to beat narrowly Unbreakable (8) for the Cup!
I can make a case for both runners. They both have handled the track – they both have big race jockeys aboard – Lieder (William Pike) and Unbreakable (Blake Shinn). I think they will be hard to toss.
The topweight, Royal Request (1) won exceptionally well last weekend in preparation for this race. He too has solid form over the 2000 metres of this race. He has got some weight but, drawn well, will be in this for a long way.
Now the one that I give a rough chance to is – Harrebs Time (7). This gelding was beaten last Saturday by Royal Request (1) but I think the run was great and he looked like he is looking for the extra distance. He could be the one at odds her to knock them all off and give Raymond Vigar a unique Darwin Carnival feature race double!
Selections: 11-8-12-1 rough chance 7
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Quadrella (races 6 to 9
2,7,12 / 1,3,12 / 1,5,12 / 1,8,11,12 - cost is $108 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,12 / 3 / 1,12 / 8,11 - cost is $8 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,3,12 / 1,5,12 / 1,8,11,12 - cost is $36 to $1
Jockey Challenge
Looks like it is a win to Jarrod Todd.
Good luck and good punting!
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