WINNO'S WINNERS: IPSWICH, SEPTEMBER 23
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, September 21, 2017
IPSWICH – SATURDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2017
This week we are packing up the car and cameras and heading west to IPSWICH. Tthe track should be rated as “GOOD” and a warm day is forecast for Saturday. I would suggest you take a hat and some sunscreen!
We have a nine race program to contend with. The rail is true the entire course this week.
I just want to say the horseracingonly.com.au tipping panel is in awesome form.
It all started last weekend when WINNO ... that is right MOI – ME ... “Skinny Winny” was on fire!
As publicised, “Last Saturday Winno tipped of no less than six outright winners of the nine race card at Doomben (races 2,4,7,8,9).He tipped the Quaddie for $24. It paid $1299.70. He tipped the treble for $27. (He actually tipped the treble in a straight line with all three of his outright selections saluting). It paid $588.70. Three out of his four Best Bets won (the other finished second). Two out of his four best roughies saluted. His tip, Brad Stewart, took out the jockey challenge. Brad paid $4.50.”
Then on Wednesday David Fowler was in fine form tipping the first five – yes five winners at the Gold Coast.
Ok, not to be outdone Sky Channel’s Josh Fleming tipped five winners at the Gold Coast as well!
It certainly pays to follow the HRO web page – the team is in wonderful form!
Now that being said – Ipswich can be a minefield for tipsters, form and betting, so bet carefully this weekend.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
We open the day early at 11.42am with an interesting race ... one, because the Snitzel colt, Snitzkraft (1) is resuming after an indifferent Brisbane Winter Carnival. I really would love to see him win for the Kelso Wood & Patricia Gesler team. They have just been having a bad patch of luck – maybe it is time for the tide to turn!
I just am worried that he usually doesn’t run all that well first up. I am sure he has been working well and is probably been set to win this race, but I am going to tip the Stuart Kendrick trained Coral Bay (2), to be ridden by Damian Browne, to let the speed runners go mad in front here and him to come home late and just pip them on the post! At $12 compared to $1.55 I am looking for some value.
Patricia will probably hit me with her bag now – but I am torn here.
Selections: 2-1-4-3
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Race 2
A three year old fillies race and there are some good ones amongst this field.
Miss Exfactor (5) does have an “X” factor. She was solid last preparation and has had a solid barrier trial at Deagon on 5 September where she looked wonderful winning the trial with Jim Byrne in the saddle.
Jim has been going through an unseasonal rough patch in recent weeks on Saturdays, but he does ride Ipswich really well and I am certain this one will get him back in the winners stall on Saturday!
Red Hot Miss (7) ran a solid race behind Whypeeo last start. It looks well placed here and is drawn nicely for the Tony Sears team who have been in good form recently.
The runner that was so impressive last preparation is Snapchat Girl (1) who strung a hat trick of wins together before heading for a spell. This one will be ridden handy just off the speed by Ryan Plumb and will prove hard to hold out as well. This is a very competitive race here.
Selections: 5-7-1-3
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Race 3
Sadly an open sprint on a Saturday can only muster 7 nominations!
There has been a serious move for one here – the Matthew Dunn trained Londehero (6) who has been the subject of a serious betting plunge since markets opened being smashed from $10 to $4.60.
The money has swayed me here to get on this one. He has a win at the Ipswich track and will be ridden by Jeff Lloyd. I thought his run in the 2017 Grafton Ramornie was wonderful. Second up here, a small field, down in the weights I am tipping him on top. He should be able to beat the Desleigh Forster trained Someday (3) who returned to form with a great run last start at Doomben. He does love 1350 metres with 5 career wins from 9 starts so do not leave him out. He may just go on with it here this weekend!
Selections: 6-3-4-7
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Race 4
Here we go the “Stayers Lottery” that occurs each week!
I have no interest here at all.
Just for the record I am tipping Outraged (2), with Ric McMahon continuing his unique association with this gelding, to win. He has ridden him nine times for four wins and a second. He has won here at Ipswich on three occasions whereas the other runners have not won here – that will do me!
Vassal (4) was solid last start at Doomben when beaten by Outraged (2). Maybe Jim Byrne can contrive some tactics to turn the table here this weekend!
If you want a roughie – don’t leave out Rock On Ivy (8). When she gets out to $20, as she is this week, she normally runs a race. It has a senior jockey aboard this week in Ronnie Stewart – now he can land a long priced winner!
Selections: 2-4-3-8
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Race 5
Ice Frost (10) was impressive first up from a spell when she was heavily supported and got the chocolates. This week she is $2.70 in the early markets with Luke Dittman aboard again. I think that Darleen Duryea has a nice one on her hands here and we should see back to back wins.
Jest Excel (11) always goes well here, so I anticipate Jim Byrne giving the mare the run of the race at pretty good odds – around $14.
The interesting runner is Yarrapower (8), transferred by Kris Lees at Newcastle to Darryl Hansen at the Sunshine Coast. I have watched a few replays of his previous runs in NSW and he just seems to like to find a way to get beaten. I see there are some serious gear changes that have been made for this debut run in Queensland with blinkers going on and a tongue tie. Maybe Darryl has found the key to this one but I will wait until I see him win before jumping aboard!
Selections: 10-11-8-12
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Race 6
This is a tough way to start the Quaddie. It is a pretty open field we have to contend with here.
With many of the chances resuming it may be best to take a good look at them parading in the yard before loading up on one!
I am liking the previous campaign of the Rex Lipp trained Our Beebee (9). She ran some nice races over these distances before being trialled at the mile and just seemed to fail. I think that was more about the campaign she had rather than her natural ability and talent. I am happier to see that Jim Byrne has been booked for the ride.
The mare has had a very solid hit out in a recent Toowoomba trial as well. All things equal she is going to be tough to hold out here first up – great odds as well at $6. Let me on her each way all day!
Mishani Sleuth (6) won well last start at Doomben. Trained by Chris Anderson, who is having a good streak at the moment, this one will be ridden once again by Brad Stewart who won the jockeys challenge last weekend (as tipped by me). These two have formed a formidable team in recent months and he should be competitive again in this grade.
The roughie for mine has to be the Michael Nolan trained Dream Finnish (6) who resumes here from a spell. This mare always races well fresh, loves the Ipswich track with two wins from two starts and with some speed on in the race gets in well here. Do not leave this one out of your exotics.
Mick Lakey has Final Zero (10) engaged here – coming off and all the way win at Doomben last start. There has been some solid backing for this one in the markets since they opened as well. Tiffani Brooker takes over this week from the suspended Jimmy Orman – she will be competitive again.
Brooklyn Storm (4) has had a stable change from Bjorn Baker to Michael Costa. I see that the blinkers come off for this run and a tongue tie goes on. Jag Guthmann-Chester has the ride and with his 3 kilogram claim this one gets in quite well. Again a solid barrier trial a month ago at the Gold Coast – and my spies tell me he has been working well at the track.
An open race – anything could win here!
Selections: 9-6-5-1 rough chances 4 & 10
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Race 7
The second leg of the Quaddie and it is tough!
The two Gollan runners have had gear changes since their last runs. Ignite the Light (5) has had the blinkers removed and a tongue tie applied – Red Handle (9) has winkers on for the first time. Jeff Lloyd rides Ignite the Light (5) and Jim Byrne is on Red Handle (9). It would be great to see these two battle out the final 100 metres here.
The lightly raced Freddie Fox Trot (15) is trained by Les Kelly. This gelding has strung two impressive wins together now and is stepping up to the metropolitan Saturday grade this weekend. He has drawn wide in barrier 14. I think if he had drawn a little bit closer in he may have tested these seasoned runners.
For mine – Tony Gollan quinella!
In what order ... take your pick!
Selections: 9-5-15-10
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Race 8
A Benchmark 75 over a mile – they are not getting any easier as the program gets later!
Last weekend I tipped Capetown Hussey (4) to win and she did! With a magical rails hugging ride from Brad Stewart she just cruised up to them and then made them look silly in the straight. She backs up quickly this weekend, however, she has backed up in the past and performed very well.
Karakabeeel (7) - I did tip last time out as a rough chance. He powered home late over the 1350 metres at Doomben at the massive odds of $26 – and got the cash. Personally I have always thought this one is better over the mid distance races and he gets his chance again to shine this weekend at Ipswich. He will probably race handy again and will be hard to hold out.
Spring Tycoon (2) won last weekend for me as well (was I on fire or what?). This Stuart Kendrick trained stallion backs up again. He does love racing over the mile and on his performance last weekend has to be considered here again. The win last weekend was soft and he looked like he had plenty in reserve.
I think this race is going to come down to jockey tactics and who gets the breaks in the straight.
Selections: 4-7-2-5
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Race 9
The last race on a nice race program – I hope that you are winning come this race! Seriously a No Metro Win race for the last leg of the Quaddie and Treble again this week – are they serious?
Star of Night (3) is trained by Toby Edmonds team at the Gold Coast. They come off some serious good form winning three races at the Gold Coast on Wednesday. Looks like the stable is firing under the guidance of Toby with the help of Trent Edmonds . Maybe it is all that KFC supplements Trent is putting away – what is your secret big fella?
Okay back to the form – now that I have sledged him and he will probably want to beat me up like last weekend!
Star of Night (3) has been solid – the runs have been very good since resuming mid August . I thought the run behind Final Zero (engaged in race 6) was nice last start as she chased hard in the straight. Jeff Lloyd aboard ... she ticks a few boxes.
Bergerac (12) is lightly raced and trained by Steve Tregea and comes off a nice win last start at the Sunshine Coast. The gelding is back down in the weights and is nicely placed here in this class of race. He has been scratched in recent weeks – maybe they have just been looking for a race where they can get on.
Anthony Allen rides him this weekend. I think he is a genuine each way chance here and can see Allen getting a nice trail behind the speed in the race.
Bourbon Road (6) could finish off the day for jockey Jim Byrne in a good way. It may be bourbons all round if this one wins! He is another one that has been racing very consistently – has drawn well in barrier 3 and I can see Jim just sitting behind the speed and then sneaking along the rail late and hopefully grabbing a win in the last!
This is an open field – I hope you can find the winner to get your Quaddies and Trebles home.
If I have any luck early in the day I will be taking the field in the last leg of both – just in case something around $31 wins and blows us out.
Just a warning this usually does happen at Ipswich!
Selections: 3-12-6-2
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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)
5,7 / 3,6 / 2,4,8 / 8,10,11 - cost is $36 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9)
1,5,6,9 / 5,9,15 / 2,4,7 / 3,6,12 - cost is $108 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
4,9 / 5,9 / 4,7 / 3,6,12 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
6,9 / 5,9 / 2,4 / 3,12 - cost is $16 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
5,9,15 / 2,4,7 /3,6,12 - cost is $27 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week it looks like one way affair – I am punting Jim Byrne to return to form with a bang! He rides Ipswich well and has been out of luck in recent weeks – do not let me down mate!
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Best Bets
Race 2 – Miss Exfactor (5) around $1.80
Race 5 – Ice Frost (10) around $2.70
Best Roughies
Race 1 - Coral Bay (2) around $12
Race 6 – Our Beebee (9) around $6
Race 9 - Bergerac (12) around $7
Good luck and good punting!
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