WINNO'S WINNERS: RANDWICK, OCTOBER 14
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, October 12, 2017
RANDWICK RACES – SATURDAY 14 OCTOBER 2017
This week Randwick is the focal point of the racing in Australia with the inaugural running of the richest race in the world on turf – THE TAB EVEREST!
This is the first time the race has been run and they are expecting 30,000 at the track. I think I may head down there next year to witness the race first hand.
The rail is in the true position and the racing surface is likely to be rated “GOOD”. The rail is out 6 meters the entire circuit. This can sometimes make life easier for any leaders.
A massive ten race program – it is time to hook into the preview this week!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
There is a TAB Highway to commence the program this weekend.
Matthew Dunn is well represented again this week. He has had some great success in recent months in these races.
This weekend he heads to Randwick with four runners. They all look like they have genuine chances but I am going for the Rod Northam trained My Tagoson (3) who has had successive wins here in similar class races. This week the gelding is looking for a hat trick of wins and has had 6 weeks between runs.
I have put in two of the Dunn runners to fill the placings. Firstly there is Madaam de Ban (7) who I think will be better for the first up run at the Sunshine Coast. I have always had an opinion of this mare. Watch out for her this weekend with Blake Shinn aboard! The other runner is Zamex (5) who was also great at the Sunshine Coast first up. He is proven in this class of race and will appreciate the 1400 metres of this race.
Let’s round out the selections with the Danny Williams trained Don’t Give a Damn (12) who was smashed in the betting last start and won sensationally at Rosehill. This lightly raced gelding is well regarded by the stable. Expect some serious support here again for this one.
Selections: 3-7-12-5 rough chance 10
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Race 2
The two year old boys step out here.
I liked the barrier trial of the Gerald Ryan trained Legend of Condor (7) – the trial was great! There has been support for him since the markets opened as well firming from $7 to $5. Joshua Parr takes the ride after partnering the Not A Single Doubt colt in his barrier trial at Rosehill ten days ago.
Another first starter is the Mark Newnham trained The Enzo (10) who also trialled well. He has drawn a little wide for his debut run but I think he will settle off the speed so the barrier will not a problem.
The Godolphin trained Rebukes (12) had a nice trial and is drawn well in barrier 2. Santos (1) is the best of those with exposed form and with the race experience under his belt he may be difficult to beat.
Selections: 7-10-12-1
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Race 3
Not a fan of the race!
Aonair (3) is a lightly raced Fastnet Rock filly trained by Chris Waller. She won first up over 1400 metres and then was sent out over 1300 metres at Rosehill. I think that you can overlook that run and back her with some confidence this week as she steps back up to 1400 metres. At $6 I think she is great each way value. She will be ridden by Irish born and UK based, distinguished rider Jamie Spencer.
Sweet Deal (4) is back in class this week and to be fair I think will be better suited over 1400 metres rather than the mile that she had to endure last start. Regimen (1) from the James Cummings Godolphin led team resumes and whilst she has been in work for a while may be better placed next start. I think the 1400 metres this week maybe just a little too tough for her first up.
Selections: 3-4-1-7
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Race 4
Another Highway Handicap. Punt carefully here!
There are two runners coming back in grade and I think they get conditions to suit. The first one is After All That (6), trained again by Rod Northam. This could give him a unique double taking out both Highway races on such a prestigious race day. He also has put his great mate “King of the Coal Fields” Robert Thompson aboard. The run first up in the Shorts was great and he has a solid second up record!
The Melanie O’Gorman trained Suncraze (11) is looking for a hat trick of wins in these Highway races. He was sent out favourite last start at Rosehill and was super impressive. Corey Brown has been aboard the gelding for both wins and takes the ride again this weekend.
Pumpkin Pie (8) is looking to get some cream here this weekend. She is coming back in grade after running a nice race in the Premier Stakes when only beaten by 3.8 lengths by In Her Time. She is very well placed here and Hugh Bowman has been booked to ride her!
Selections: 6-11-8-1
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Race 5
The Star Mile over 1600 metres – now this is a grand race!
I think we should be paying considerable attention to the Queensland Oaks form from the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
I think the Chris Waller pair of Oklahoma Girl (8) and Invincibella (11) have the race between them. I think that these two will go onto Melbourne for the Spring Carnival and they will be ones to follow out of this race in coming weeks!
For the record I am on Oklahoma Girl (8) who I thought was sensational first up with a massive weight being beaten just 1.7 lengths! The price appeals as well - $10 each way all day.
The stable mate, Invincibella (11) won first up midweek and will continue to thrive. She is obviously the pick of the stable here and has been smashed in the early markets firming from $6 to $2.60 since the markets have opened. Where there is smoke there may be fire!
Pygmy (9) produced a tremendous run in the Queensland Oaks as well. She is second up this weekend. She has won second up and commands respect as she comes to hand quickly!
Selections: 8-11-9-1
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Race 6
The St Leger Stakes – a tough race. I would expect some of these are getting ready for runs in Melbourne in the coming weeks.
The run of the Darren Weir trained Big Duke (2) in the Metropolitan the other week was too good to overlook. I think the loyal supporters will be “drinking beer” when this one salutes!
Auvray (6) has been consistent in recent runs. He seems to have found a purple patch of form and I just cannot leave him out here.
Libran (1) can mix his form, however, he will have no trouble with the 2600 metres of this race.
It’s an open field with some serious chances.
Selections: 2-6-1-4
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Race 7
The 2017 Sydney Stakes (Listed) – now this is a super race with an awesome field.
I think the race is between Takedown (1) and In Her Time (12).
Both have run well since resuming with In Her Time (12) winning in dominant fashion first up at Randwick.
I think that Takedown (1) has been superb since resuming after a poor campaign in Brisbane in the winter. Trainer Gary Moore seems to have him back on track and he is planning another assault on the Perth Carnival later in the year – so I think this weekend, despite the wide draw, we can look for a dramatic improvement in this real bulldog of a sprinter. He just never gives up!
Trapeze Artist (14) won at $41 last start and surprised many - but not the stable – they were confident he was flying! This week he comes to Randwick where he does not have a real good record and is back in distance as well. He may just struggle here against the older, more seasoned sprinters.
The winner of the 2017 Stradbroke resumes here – Impending (3). He has been ticking over nicely with two solid barrier trials. He has drawn wide in barrier 17 – watch for him to swoop late, fast and hard!
Selections: 12-1-14-3
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Race 8 The TAB 2017 EVEREST
Well this is it – the richest race on turf in the World!
A quality field – so where do you start?
I see that NSW TAB is offering $10 million dollar payout for anyone who can pick the first 10 in order as well – I think I had better have a crack at that! This promotion is only for NSW TAB punters.
I am probably going to be laughed at here – but these are my thoughts!
My tip is ... (drum roll) – Deploy (6) – let me on at $12!
I think that they will need to run 1.08 to win this race – there will be some speed on here!
I think that Josh Parr will let them go in front and then make a dash at them around the 150 metre mark. He will be hoping that he gets enough distance on the grey war horse, Chautauqua (1) and just have enough to hold him out.
So will Josh Parr be holding the TAB Everest trophy after the race – like he did when he won the Grafton Cup earlier this year? WINNO says so!
I am thinking that Chautauqua (1) will be the likely danger. He just comes hard and never lies down. This week he is third up from a spell. He has had 6 starts third up for 3 wins and 2 placings, so he has to be the hardest to beat.
They will be cheering loud if Brenton Avdulla can time that run out wide late and swoop home and win!
Now for third – Redkirk Warrior (4). I just cannot believe that David Hayes & Tom Dabernig have successfully turned this ex-Hong Kong horse into such a great sprinter. He will be in this for a long way!
Redzel (3) – well you all know that I have declared him in both his starts this time in and he has won for us both times. This Peter & Paul Snowden trained gelding has come back so well and has run some astonishing races since resuming.
He has drawn well in barrier 4 and you know what ... he may just blow them all out. As normal he has been kept fresh by the Snowden team – 4 weeks since his last run and a very solid barrier trial on 3 October where he won well. He is ready for this!
How can I not mention the Queenslander – Houtzen (11)! She gets in with 51 kilograms with Jeff Lloyd to ride and a great bunch of owners from a great stable. Toby Edmonds – good luck team – she could be just the ‘X’ factor that could bring these all unstuck! She has drawn well in barrier 1 and at $26 seems like no one gives her a chance.
Selections: 6-1-4-3 rough chances 10 & 11
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Race 9 – 2017 Craven Plate (Group 3)
I am not going to knock Happy Clapper (1) this week after his great win in the Epsom – superbly rated by Blake Shinn. However, he has never won at 1800 metres ... but, seriously, the opposition are not much chop here!
The danger could be Embley (9) who last start chased Classic Uniform (5) home late and I think the 1800 metres will suit him. The Godolphin runner Spectroscope (8) gives me the impression that he is looking for a longer distance so this may be a little too short this week, but he will be coming home strong.
Selections: 1-9-8-5
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Race 10
Okay we have made it – Race 10 on a marathon program this week.
I am sure there will be some messy people by the time this race kicks off at the track!
I am going for Machinegun Jubs (8) who has been working well and is first up here. She normally runs well fresh and has a great first up record so with Hugh Bowman aboard I think she is a great chance.
The other one that I am hoping gets in the field is an emergency – Darhad (17) a lightly raced three year old from the Hawkes team. Drawn well here and with no weight it should be competitive and good odds of $14.
Rebel Miss (12) won last start at Warwick Farm in a good effort. Unfortunately the barrier gods have not been nice to her this weekend and she is in barrier 16 at this point.
In an open affair Accepted (1), a new runner for the Gary Moore stable coming off a 43 week spell after being competitive in Hong Kong, could be one at odds here.
Latin Boy (3) keeps winning – as a matter of fact four in a row. Just working through the grades nicely and does have a liking for the 1000 metres.
Selections: 8-17-3-12 rough chance 1
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Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)
3,4 / 6,8,11 / 8,9,11 / 1,2,6 - cost is $54 for $1
Quadrella(races 7 to 10)
1,12,14 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,8,9 / 3,8,17 - cost is $108 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,12 / 1,3,6 / 1,9 / 8,17 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,12 / 1,6 / 1,9 / 3,8,17 - cost is $24 to $1
Silly Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1 / 6 / 1 / 8,17 - cost is $2 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,3,4,6 / 1,8,9 / 3,8,17 - cost is $36 to $1
BIG 6 (Races 5 to 10 NSW TAB only)
8,11 / 2,6 / 1,12 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,9 / 8,17- cost is $128 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week the field looks like a great battle between Kerrin McEvoy, Hugh Bowman and Brenton Avdulla – I am going Kerrin this weekend in a tough tight battle. If Avdulla gets to ride Darhad (17) in the last he may just claim the victory!
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Best Bets
Race 3 - Aonair (3) around $6
Race 6 - Big Duke (2) around $3
Best Roughies
Race 1 - Madaam de Ban (7) around $21
Race 5 - Oklahoma Girl (8) around $10
Race 8 - Deploy (6) around $12
Good luck and good punting!
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