WINNO'S WINNERS: CAULFIELD, OCTOBER 21
By Darren Winningham | Friday, October 20, 2017
CAULFIELD CUP DAY 2017 - SATURDAY 21 OCTOBER 2017
Well the first of the time honoured “Cups” in Melbourne has arrived! It is Caulfield Cup weekend!
The track should be rated “GOOD” with the threat of some showers and the rail will be out 6 metres for the entire circuit.
I always like to favour horses that have won or performed well at Caulfield when doing my form for this track – sometimes it works and on other occasions it does not – let’s hope it is a positive this week.
I must take the opportunity for a shout out to the Queenslanders who are great friends and a lethal pairing - Kevin Kemp and Jimmy Orman who will be attempting to win the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes (Race 9) with Sold For Song!
There is a massive ten race program to get through – so let’s hook into it!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
An early start here for the first race - 11.15pm QLD time - looks like an early morning!
Let’s start with one from the Waterhouse & Bott stables – Our Crown Witness (6). This Star Witness filly was primed well with two amazing barrier trials in Sydney before being sent south and she has been working nicely through her classes.
My mail is that the stable has a HUGE opinion of this filly and she may be something special. She will jump and lead and I think will be hard to catch.
The danger is the Hayes & Dabernig team trained Justice Glory (4) at the great each way odds of $10.
Don’t let this one get under your guard. She is a Fastnet Rock filly who has had 7 weeks between runs. I would suggest you overlook her last start at Caulfield when things really did not pan out too well for her. She has been freshened since and has had a solid barrier trial on 4 October where she destroyed that field.
As for the rest - just take your pick!
Selections: 6-4-10-9
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Race 2
Eclair Sunshine (3) is my tip here - trained by Phillip Stokes with Luke Nolen to take the reins this weekend. I think last start should be forgiven and we should go on the solid run in the Exford Plate when narrowly going down to Royal Symphony. I think being fourth up he will be ready to step out and smash this lot.
The obvious danger is the Darren Weir trained Snitzepeg (1) who won well at Flemington last start in the Poseidon Stakes, He did post a reasonable time and sectionals for that run - so he has to be seriously considered.
Icon of Dubai (4) is only a lightly raced colt from the Peter and Paul Snowden yards in Sydney. He had his first start the reverse way last time at Flemington and I think will strip better for that experience.
Selections: 3-1-4-5 rough chance 2
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Race 3
The Group 3 Ethereal Stakes - now this looks tough!
One More Honey (1) is having her first crack at the 2000 metres. I think that the way she raced in the Flight Stakes three weeks ago that she will get this distance. Blake Shinn is aboard and he will give her every chance.
There is one here at odds that I like that may blow them all out - the Hayes & Dabernig trained Rimraam (10). She is a Commands filly and she has been just slowly working through her classes without much fuss. Hayes is a master at producing one this time of the year for the Oaks. I really think that this one fits that brief and she was very good winning last start at Geelong. Massive odds on offer here at $26! I will be having something on her each way.
Pinot (6) has been in consistent form as well and again will appreciate the step up in distance after winning last start at Flemington over 1800 metres. She looks well placed but barrier 19 is a massive obstacle this weekend as she loves to race handy or on the speed and this may prove a real challenge!
Darren Weir has the lightly raced Teodora (12) who is undefeated in both career starts. She looks progressive and I will be looking to see how she performs this weekend. With much respect for this stable - so she cannot be left out!
Selections: 1-10-6-12 rough chances 5 & 17
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Race 4
A small field of eight to contest this Group 3 race. Look this is an even bunch with all of them having a genuine chance to win.
I am tipping Tangled (1). It is no secret that I am a fan of this Snitzel colt trained by Chris Waller. He ran a tremendous race last start in the Spring Champion Stakes, at Group 1 level at Randwick and he will do me here!
Cliff’s Edge (2) was amazing last start only going down to Main Stage (4), again a rival this week, who was ridden to perfection by Michael Walker on that occasion. I am not sure whether Main Stage (4) will beat my top two home this weekend. The early action in the markets would strongly suggest that the stable is more than happy with Main Stage (4) as he has been well found in the markets being smashed from $5 into $3.80 - the flood of money continues!
Ataraxia (5) is the Godolphin runner for James Cummings who won the Dulcify last start at Randwick. That day I think he got conditions to suit - not sure if he will find them here this weekend.
Selections: 1-2-4-5
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Race 5
The Coongy Cup at Group 3 level.
With no Winx to contend with this weekend I am punting on the top weight Assign (1) to return to the winning circle.
This seven year old gelding was solid in the Group1 Turnbull and drops way back in class and gets the services of Hugh Bowman this weekend. He is great odds as well at $7!
I like the Archie Alexander trained Wheal Leisure (11) who has been in wonderful form and does like the Caulfield track. The mare is undefeated third up and she gets a chance to keep that record intact here.
There has been an early move in the markets for Samovare (8) from the Hayes & Dabernig team. She led them up in the Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago. I am not too sure that is the way to ride her. Damien Oliver takes over this weekend - he has a good record on the mare with 3 rides for 1 win and 2 seconds on her. I think we should be looking for her to settle off the pace this weekend and make a late run at them.
Kiwia (10) is a genuine chance as well from the powerful Darren Weir stables.
Selections: 1-11-8-10
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Race 6
I think the race is between the two Darren Weir runners.
Some people may think I am mad here but I am putting Burning Point (2) on top here at $14. Last start he was climbing all over them in the straight at Flemington with a large weight and was held up at a vital stage. This weekend he returns to what could arguably be his favourite track Caulfield - with 4 starts for 4 wins here! I like that Brad Rawiller stays aboard as well. He has ridden him for 11 of his 18 career race wins!
Ulmann (5) is Weir’s other runner. He has solid form second up and has the dynamic Damian Lane partnering him this weekend - he could win on a mop at the moment he is riding in such great form! First up at Flemington he just sat off them and finished off the race nicely. He will be better suited this week over 1400 metres.
I do like the Kurt Goldman trained Eckstein (10) to show up this weekend. This mare is third up here and can produce a tidy run. She would love the track to be rain affected - if there is rain she will improve 3 lengths!
Joao Moreira takes the ride on the Kris Lees trained Danish Twist (11). She is always hard to catch - but she has a solid third up record with five starts for 2 wins and 2 thirds and she does have the “Magic Man” aboard!
Selections: 2-5-10-11
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Race 7
A small field for the Group 2 sprint over 1000 metres - they will go lickeckty split here! Maybe a new track record?
Crystal Dreamer (4) is my tip – a $21 chance. I have not lost my marbles! Now just wait till I make my case. The gelding loves the track. He always performs third up with 4 starts - 3 wins to his record. Damian Lane is aboard this weekend and he has a solid record aboard this one as well.
Maybe I am just looking for some serious value in the first leg of the Quaddie this week! However, this one will not be engaged in the speed battle that I anticipate will take place up front between Snitty Kitty (8) and Super Too (9), who will race like scalded cats in front. So I am looking for a swooper if these two falter or cut each other’s throats in front.
The danger is the lightly raced Robert Smerdon trained Property (10) who has a superb record at this track and distance and has his regular rider Craig Williams aboard this weekend. He has ridden this Starcraft gelding two times for two wins. He recently went to Cranbourne to partner him in a trial. He won that trial impressively and I tell you what he will be hard to hold out here this weekend!
Selections: 4-10-9-8 rough chance 5
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Race 8 – THE 2017 BMW CAULFIELD CUP
This race looks a little depleted this year with only 17 runners.
I have been trying to work out whether the rail being out will make any difference in the race.
I think there should be some genuine speed in the race and it should come from Jon Snow (4) unless one of these overseas horses decides to make a name for it-self and set the pace out in front.
Either way I am going for the New Zealand trained mare Bonneval (11) to win the Cup. You can all whinge and moan she is injured - under a cloud, whatever you like - the Kiwis always know how to get a better price in big races!
She has had four Group 1 starts for 3 victories. She drops down in weight and I think that you should totally forgive and overlook the last start run at Caulfield as she pulled up lame.
Hugh Bowman would have been on this mare but she is carrying 52.5kilograms and loses nothing with The Everest winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy booked to ride her. He has been in scintillating form and he is a big race rider!
The other runners I have struggled with.
Ventura Storm (7) is my second selection. He is fourth up and usually does run well fourth up. I see that veteran, cool headed Damien Oliver has been booked to ride this Hayes & Dabernig runner. He can get a little too far back, however. From barrier 4 I expect that Oliver will elect to ride this stallion for luck, get him in nice on the rails and let he settle before making a run around 200 metres from home.
I think Darren Weir is looking for an improved performance this week from Humidor (1). There have been a number of gear changes on this one. I am not too sure he is a genuine 2400 metre horse. He may just be found out in that final 75 metres.
Johannes Vermeer (3), trained by Aidan O’Brien, has been well backed since the markets and barrier draw firming from $5 to $4.20. He is second up here in the Cup after running home impressively last weekend and just being beaten by Gailo Chop. He has some solid second up form and should not be disregarded.
I think the added strength to this one's chances is the booking of local jockey Ben Melham. Not that I am saying the overseas jockeys are useless but I think I would want a local jockey on my horse if I brought it all this way!
Now this is my roughie for the race, but I am worried as he has never had a Group 1 career race start. Marmelo (2) trained by Hughie Morrison and to be ridden by Hugh Bowman – the Hughie show!
This stallion is very tough and normally runs well fresh – but normally peaks third up. He could be a serious Melbourne Cup contender but I think he may need one more start before the Cup to be seriously considered. I will be watching closely this weekend to see how he performs.
Harlem (15) again from the Hayes & Dabernig yards has had blinker applied this week after an indifferent run in the Bart Cummings a fortnight ago. Again he is fourth up here and previously has performed well each time at this run and has solid form at Caulfield. Chad Schofield is making a quick trip back from Hong Kong to partner this stallion and I think he should be considered.
Selections: 11-7-3-15 rough chances 1 & 2
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Race 9
The Group 2 Tristarc Stakes for the mares!
This is the toughest race of the day - well besides the Caulfield Cup!
I managed to get it down to six - then I started to look at barriers, but they may not play a part here. You will need some luck in this race I am anticipating!
So let’s start with the ones that have drawn wide.
Global Glamour (2) from the Waterhouse stables - this mare just does not know how to lie down, but from barrier 16 she will be looking to lead this field and, while she has been working a treat and trialling well, she will need some luck here!
Ravi (10) from the Snowden stables in Sydney has drawn barrier 17. I don’t think this is such a set back as she can settle and make a long sustained run but, again, Hugh Bowman will need some luck here!
Then there is Chris Waller with Shillelagh (13) who has jagged barrier 13. Again I think she won’t be too badly disadvantaged as she will settle and race off the speed. She has a tremendous second up record with 3 wins from 4 starts and has always shown a distinct liking to running the Victorian anticlockwise race style with 9 starts this way for 4 wins and a placing - I think at the silly odds of $31 that she opened she deserved to absolutely smashed by punters and she has now firmed into around $11. Joao “the Magic Man” Moreira from Hong Kong takes the ride!
Now for the runners who have drawn well.
Looks like the Sydneysiders have been stitched up in the barrier draw!
The top weight and classy Foxplay is drawn well in barrier 4. She has been running over the mile in her last two starts. I think she is better suited over 1400 metres. Back to her own sex this weekend - watch for her to be coming home late with Kerrin McEvoy wielding the whip.
Now to the one that I like - Sword of Light (6) - who I think last preparation proved that she can get a little bit of distance winning over a mile and then running around in the South Australian Oaks where she acquitted herself well when beaten by Egg Tart. I like this one as she will make her own luck, be ridden close to or just off the speed and with the previous wins here at the track (3 in total) and the ability to stay and sprint she ticks a few boxes here. I think people are going to say I am mad tipping one on top here at $41 - but I really think she can stay out of trouble in this large field and finish off strongly over the concluding stages.
Now I am not one to give jockeys any advice but, Jimmy Orman - if you can get a tail behind this one and get around her heels - she may just bring you and Sold For Song (15) nicely into the race when you are about to hit the gas!
Good luck mate. I would love to see you win over the Carnival and see Kempy interviewed on TV. I will be watching and hopefully cheering!
Now in saying that Sold For Song (15) has drawn barrier 6, She was amazing first up down the straight at Flemington when no one gave her a chance! Personally I have always thought she is best in her first three runs each preparation. In recent years she has never fared well at the barrier draw – this weekend she has drawn nicely so I do not expect Jimmy Orman to let them get too big a start on him in this race.
Selections: 6-10-1-15 rough chances 2 & 13
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Race 10
Okay we have made it the last race on a marathon day - where history will be created in the Caulfield Cup for some lucky owner, trainer, jockey and the horse!
Look I am probably going to be wrong here but I cannot have the favourite Nieta (3) on top. I think she needs a wet track to see the best of her. I am a massive fan of this mare. I saw her win her first ever start at Ballina with Ryan Wiggins aboard in early 2016, but I really think she needs a slow to heavy track. I can’t see her getting it this weekend unless the heavens open up prior to the running of the last couple of races.
So you favourite punters can take the $2.30 that they are betting but I am going for the Tony McEvoy trained Concealer (8) to get home and make it a great day for the bookies!
This mare resumes from a 31 week spell. She always runs well fresh and it is my mail that she has been working well at the track. Whilst she has not had any official barrier trials I expect her to provide a bold showing in this race.
The top weight Fuhryk (1) has had a plethora of gear changes after her last start at Caulfield. I would warn you not to let that ‘8’ next to her name in her last run turn you off her. She was beaten only a handful of lengths and they say that she got her tongue over the bit. This week with a tongue tie and a standard bit being applied watch out for super performance!
The runner of note here is Crystal Fountain (9) from the Anthony Freedman stables. She is unbeaten in all four career starts and she recently had a very soft barrier trial hit out at Cranbourne to get her ready for this race. Do not be fooled by that barrier trial - it was soft - and if Mark Zhara had let her go she may have spaced the opposition!
Selections: 8-1-9-3
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Early Quaddie (Races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)
1,6,10,12 / 1,2,4 / 1,8,11,10 / 2,5,10,11 - cost is $192 for $1
Quadrella (races 7 to 10)
4,9,10 / 1,3,7,11 / 1,6,10,13,15 / 1,3,8,9 - cost is $240 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
4,10 / 3,7,11 / 1,6,10,13 / 1,8,9 - cost is $72 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
10 / 7,11 / 1,6,10 / 1,8 - cost is $12 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,3,7,11 / 1,6,10,13,15 / 1,3,8,9 - cost is $80 to $1
Value Treble (race 8 to 10)
7,11 / 1,6,10 / 1,8 - cost is $12 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week the field looks it is open as the Sydney heads. I think it well may come down to the last race result. I am putting Craig Williams just on top to pip Damian Lane.
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Best Bets
Race 4 - Tangled (1) - around $4
Race 7 - Property (10) - around $5
Best Roughies
Race 3 - Rimraam (10)– around $26
Race 6 - Burning Point (2) – around $14
Race 7 - Crystal Dreamer (4) – around $21
Race 9 – Sword of Light (6) – around $41
Good luck and good punting!
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