WINNO'S WINNERS: MOONEE VALLEY, OCTOBER 28
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, October 26, 2017
LADBROKES COX PLATE DAY 2017 - SATURDAY 28 OCTOBER 2017
Cox Plate Day 2017 – they are saying the gates will be closed early as thousands of people stream into the Moonee Valley track to see the champion mare WINX attempt to win her third consecutive Cox Plate.
The track should be rated “GOOD” with the rail in its true position.
I was on fire last weekend at Caulfield with a number of winners, the early Quaddie and even a first 4! Let’s hope I can get the form right this weekend at the Valley.
There is a massive ten race program to get through.
Let’s go!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
***************************************************************************************************
Race 1
A tough open race to start the day with the two year olds stepping out – some for the first time.
My man in Melbourne suggests that a few of these will be better for the run, however, he did say that there has been one his eye has caught just galloping around the track and he thinks it may be one to watch. Backfill (3) is my tip here from the Danny O’Brien stables at around $20 each way. This Sebring colt apparently goes well, but may need the run. I have put him on top here – drawn the rails is a big advantage for a first starter - especially at Moonee Valley.
Last weekend Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott had a field day at Caulfield having three starters and three winners on the day! They saddle up Setsuna (6) here who debuted in the Gimcrack and ran a very good race when narrowly beaten - running second. Again she will have to contend with the tight turning Moonee Valley track but watch for her to be ridden on the speed or just off them this weekend.
Jawwaal (5) is a Snitzel colt trained by the Caulfield Cup winning stable of the Hayes & Dabernig team. This one has had no official barrier trials but this stable always educates their youngsters well and he will be in this up to his ears!
I have a great tip for another one here who was solid in a recent barrier trial. Although the time was not flash on the day my mail is that she is pretty smart. Trilli (11) is trained by Jason Warren and will be ridden by Daniel Stackhouse. In the trial at Cranbourne she was solid without being extended. She does have barrier 11 to contend with though so she may face a stiff task from out there.
Selections: 3-6-5-11
**************************************************************************************************
Race 2
A sprint race – so I had better be quick and precise here!
Badajoz (2) has come back from a spell with two consecutive wins. Both have been impressive and I think he is the one to beat here. I know he is dropping back in distance from 1100 metres to the 955 metres. That may be the only issue.
The other horses are fresh and resuming so they may race well and be too nippy for Badajoz (2) first up. Sirbible (3) is one of those who are track specialists with 3 wins and 2 placings from seven starts here. He has a very good record first up with 5 starts for 3 wins and 2 seconds. At around $6 he does represent good value.
The all-conquering Darren Weir stable has Gun Case (1) engaged. I think he would be better placed on a wet track – but nonetheless he should be making his presence felt in this race.
Rock ‘N’ Gold (4) goes well at the Valley as well – maybe another one to consider for your exotics.
Selections: 2-3-1-4
**************************************************************************************************
Race 3
Hard race this one – not sure what to make of the field with the set weight and conditions of the race.
I like the barrier trial win of Ducimus (2) at Cranbourne on 9 October. I think that in his previous preparation, before the 10 week spell, he showed enough to suggest that he is up to this class of horse.
The top weight Single Bullet (1) is the class runner of the field and has resumed with two great seconds. He probably deserves a change of luck and may be able to post a win at his first run at the Valley.
Experimentation (8) has performed here well in the past. He has drawn barrier 10 – but look for Craig Williams to explode him out of the gates and take up a forward position on him here. I am just worried he may get caught wide and may not finish off the race.
Toby Edmonds from the Gold Coast has snuck Eptimum (9) down to Melbourne. After a solid barrier trial second at the Gold Coast to Houtzen back in August it has had two runs in Melbourne for two wins. It is a dramatic step up in class, however, his last win at Bendigo was pretty good.
Selections: 2-1-8-4 rough chance 9
***************************************************************************************************
Race 4
The Godolphin pair looks to have the race between them here - Jorda (2) to be ridden by Hugh Bowman and Demerara (8) to be ridden by Brenton Avdulla. Both look well placed by James Cummings in this race.
Demerara (8) has won three from three career starts and her last start win at Rosehill was noteworthy – carrying a big weight and running some good time. Avdulla has ridden her to victory in all three wins and remains aboard this weekend. I think she is going places this one – time to load up and get on!
The stablemate Jorda (2) I think has been running solidly since resuming from a spell. Fourth up this weekend I expect her to be super competitive.
Looks like a sea of blue in the finish for mine – Godolphin blue!
If you want to scout wide here I would suggest Blondie (6), at around $26, could be one to watch. Strongly suggest you overlook her last two runs – I don’t think she is a horse that gets a mile. She has had three weeks off since her last run at Flemington and does appreciate the Moonee Valley track. Blake Shinn has been booked to ride her as well. Watch for an improved run this weekend.
Selections: 8-2-6-1
**************************************************************************************************
Race 5
Invincibella (5) has come back very good after her Brisbane Winter campaign and just keeps going from strength to strength. Her two runs since resuming have been sensational and I cannot see why she will not continue on her winning way here – that will be a hat trick of wins for the Chris Waller trained mare!
Consommateur (2) runs best second up. In fact she is undefeated second up – and that is what we find her doing this weekend. She likes the mile and, to be fair, if the track was rain affected she would be a shorter price. However, I do expect her to finish in the placings.
Oregon’s Day (6) has been racing in far superior classes of races. Back in class this weekend and back to the Valley which she likes – look for a better run here with Damien Oliver aboard for the Mick Price stables.
Selections: 5-2-6-3
*************************************************************************************************
Race 6 – 2017 Moonee Valley Cup
This is a poor field with only seven runners lining up to contend the race – pretty disappointing.
I was on Big Duke (1) last start, three weeks ago at Randwick, when he won the St Leger over 2600 metres. He was strong that day and I think, with a previous win here at the Valley, he may be able to put another win on the board.
I really like a roughie in the race here – one that could blow them all out!
The Waterhouse & Bott trained Cismontane (7) has a win here at the track and, in traditional Waterhouse racing style, will probably be taken to the lead by Stephen Baster and will make the running. I just think that if he gets away with some cheap sectionals and is left alone in front he may catch the rest of his opposition sleeping here. So he may be great odds at $16 each way – the Waterhouse stables are flying – so watch out!
Selections: 1-7-3-2
*************************************************************************************************
Race 7
We are getting closer to the Cox Plate!
This is a very tough race to commence the Quaddie. I just cannot seem to find a genuine leader in the race.
Glam Guru (3) can lead but I am not sure that they will want to adopt those tactics in a Group 2 race at the Valley.
Banish (2) from team Godolphin posted a nice win last start at Cranbourne over the 1400 metres and, on that run, I have put her on top here.
Mintha (4) ran a great second to Houtzen here a month ago in the Scarborough Stakes at Group 3 level. She didn’t seem to sprint with them last start at Caulfield over the mile. This weekend, having a second go at the mile, maybe they will ride her a little closer to the speed. I think that if she gets some momentum she will be surging home late.
I like the ex-New Zealander Nothin’ On Me (7), trained by Aaron Purcell, as a rough chance here. She won her maiden last start at Pakenham over 1400 metres, however, she has some previous solid form in New Zealand at Group level running some solid races behind Melody Belle (in the Sires Produce – Group 1) and Gold Fever (Breeders Stakes – Group 2) when she was trained over there. I think the way she finished off the race last start she is worth a place ticket.
Selections: 2-4-7-1
*************************************************************************************************
Race 8
This race is a good race – the 2017 Schweppes Crystal Mile (Group 2).
I cannot go past two runners here – Burning Front (3) and Religify (4). I really think the race is between them.
Religify (4) will lead them and if left alone in front will be hard to run down. His dominant displays in Brisbane over the Winter Carnival would suggest that he is right in this! The only concern is that this is his first run around the Valley! I am going out on a limb here – but I think depending on where Chris Waller takes him over the Carnival I think he is a genuine Railway Stakes contender in Western Australia. There you go Dazztradarmous has struck again!
Burning Front (3) was gallant last weekend when beaten by the stable mate Ulmann at Caulfield (Winno did say the race was between the two of them!).
This gelding thrives over the mile and has a passion for the Moonee Valley track, with five starts for 3 wins and 1 second here. Over the mile he has had 14 starts for 7 wins – so there is a lot to like about this one. Darren Weir has decided to back him up quickly after the run last weekend. He will probably just sit off the speed and stalk Religify (4) in the run – it will all come down to who has the best sprint in the final 100 metres!
It’s Somewhat (1) maybe the dark horse here! Who can ever forget his run in the 2017 A.D.Hollindale Stakes (Group 2) at the Gold Coast when perfectly rated by Tye Angland in front. In that run he beat Single Gaze who was a gallant second last weekend in the Caulfield Cup. He does usually improve second up, however, his best performance are usually his third run from a spell so I will be watching him closely this weekend. I think he is very well placed in Group 2 Company as well.
Selections: 4-3-1-6
**************************************************************************************************
Race 9 – 2017 Ladbrokes Cox Plate
Well it has finally arrived the 2017 Cox Plate – 9 runners amassing around $24 million in prizemoney between them – and, you guessed it, $13.8 million of that the mighty mare Winx has won!
Only one other horse has won three W.S.Cox Plates – and that was Kingston Town when he won in 1980, 1981 and 1982.
They are betting $1.15 Winx (8). It looks like the best odds you will ever see!
I will just be standing in front of a TV somewhere admiring her this weekend!
I am just going to have $10 on her to win with Brisbane book maker Con Searle and keep the ticket – just to say I backed her the day she won her third Cox Plate in a row! So Con, your bag will not balance this weekend!
I suppose you just stand her out and try your luck for your exotics.
I have nothing really more to say – Winx to win!
Selections: 8-2-5-7
**************************************************************************************************
Race 10
So if you want to really have a bet after watching Winx put 22 wins in a row good luck betting in this last race!
Now this is an interesting race. We will have Cliff’s Edge (1) out on front for Darren Weir and Mark Zahra and settled somewhere behind him will be the filly Aloisia (9) trained by Aaron Purcell and to be ridden by Luke Nolen - looking to get some luck and power home over the top of the leader.
It is going to be a race of tactics – a battle between Zahra and Nolen – who will reign supreme?
I think the filly Aloisia (9) with the slight pull in the weights and third up is the way to go, however, if they have been winning in front throughout the day – maybe you should swap to the colt - Cliff’s Edge (1)!
Either or it should be a nice quinella to finish off the day!
Selections: 9-1-5-7
**************************************************************************************************
Early Quaddie (Races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)
1,2,8 / 2,6,8 / 2,5,6 / 1,7 - cost is $54 for $1
Value Early Quaddie (Races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)
1,2 / 8 / 5 / 1,7 - cost is $4 to $1
Quadrella (races 7 to 10)
2,4,7 / 1,3,4 / 8 / 1,5,9 - cost is $27 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
2,4 / 3,4 / 8 / 1,9 - cost is $8 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
2,4 / 4 / 8 / 9 - cost is $2 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,3,4 / 8 / 1,5,9 - cost is $9 to $1
Jockey Challenge
An open affair – Kerrin McEvoy, Mark Zahra, Brenton Avdulla and Hugh Bowman. I am going for the home town boy Mark Zahra to pip them by getting a place or win in the last race!
**************************************************************************************************
Best Bets
Race 3 - Ducimus (2) - around $6
Race 4 - Demerara (8) - around $2.30
Race 6 - Big Duke (1) - around $2
Race 9 - Winx (8) around $1.15
Race 10 - Aloisia (9) around $2.70
Best Roughies
Race 2 - Sirbible (3) - around $6
Race 6 - Cismontane (7) - around $16
Good luck and good punting!
More articles
|