WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, OCTOBER 28
By Darren Winningham | Friday, October 27, 2017
DOOMBEN – SATURDAY 28 OCTOBER 2017
Last week WINNO was going great until the wet weather called a halt to the program!
I would like to take time out to mention my fellow banter colleague Josh Fleming – who to be fair has been in great form in recent weeks with his tipping and selections! But last week something that has never happened before occurred – I beat him $12.50 to $0! He never posted $1 to his account. Now when someone normally posts a $0 or gets thrashed to zero there should be a penalty! Just putting it out there to the readers who follow us each week!
I can hear Flemo whinging right now – “you are kidding you flea – we only had three races” – but a fact is a fact and you are only as good as your last performance mate!
I would like to warn you all again this week at Doomben could be a lottery – there is a forecast shower and rain leading up to the Saturday program. The track at Doomben is rated as “SOFT” (some may say like Josh Fleming and The Queensland Maroons) and the rail will be out 5 metres the entire course this weekend. Anything could happen!
So this week we have 10 races on a SLOW or worse track – any predictions of how many races we will get through this weekend? To be fair they are suggesting nice weather come Saturday so we should not see some of the jockeys coming back to scale this weekend with a free mud pack application to their faces like we did last weekend! Seriously guys and girls – they have some nice beauty salons around for those types of applications and to make your skin look good!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Two year olds on a wet track ….. who knows what will handle the track here?
In the words of Sergeant Schulz – “I know nothing”.
I am gambling on the Kelly Schweida Racing trained Chicka Boom (5) – one because I like the name and the second reason it is horse 5 from barrier 5.
Sienna Rose (3) from the Steven O’Dea stables was solid in her first race start. Isee this week there is an addition of blinkers to sharpen her up – maybe this will lead to a better performance.
Fish ‘N’ Snitz (6) also produced a solid run on the Gold Coast in her debut run when only beaten around 1.5 lengths in a blanket finish and she will certainly take some benefit from that experience.
Heavenly Stranger (7) is a lovely filly who won a trial at the Gold Coast three weeks ago. She is trained by Helen Page who seems to be having a nice run with her horses – this one was impressive in the trial and has drawn barrier 4 – so I expect her just to settle off the speed and be unleased in the straight.
John Zielke and his two year old team just seem to keep winning! He has Miracles Aplenty (1) in here this weekend. She has had a barrier trial on a heavy track in Toowoomba when ridden by apprentice Nick Keal. She looked solid in winning that trial and I think she will be ready to show her best this weekend in her second career race start with Luke Dittman taking the reins.
Selections: 5-3-6-7 rough chance 1
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Race 2
A massive field here and it appears there will be a few scratchings with many runners not having riders declared for them at the moment.
I am staying with Bonsho (6). She has solid wet track form and has the added advantage of Ronnie Stewart aboard. I am suggesting overlooking the recent run at the Gold Coast. I think she will be better suited at Doomben.
As for the rest ... it is tough!
Valfierno (5) has strung two nice wins together - last start winning here on a heavy track so the conditions should not bother him. The 1 barrier is a great advantage as he normally likes to race on the speed.
Star Justice (17) resumed with a nice run at Ipswich first up at massive odds of $31. This one could be worth a second glance second up
Selections: 6-2-17-10
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Race 3
Saint Patrick's Day (1) from Chris Munce Racing looks well placed in this grade and he will handle the damp conditions. Another nice ride for Ronnie Stewart here.
Cabin Fever (6) resumes after the Brisbane Winter Carnival where she raced in a higher grade. She too looks well placed here and has drawn barrier 7 – Jimmy Orman jumps aboard for his first ride on the Heinrich & Rodgers trained filly.
Girl In a Million (4) has drawn wide in barrier 11. She likes to lead and I see that trainer Ben Currie has opted to put apprentice Michael Murphy aboard this weekend after their recent success on Saturday a few weeks ago. The 3 kilograms off for Murphy should assist her this weekend – but I don’t think she will handle a heavy track.
Tisani Magic (13) debuted in Toowoomba three weeks ago on a soft track and won well – she ran good time as well. Maybe Kevin Kemp has another nice gelding in his stable. I think he may be one to follow.
Selections: 1-6-4-13 rough chance 12
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Race 4
Where do you start here?
A Benchmark 75 over 2200metres – I am off to grab some lunch – see you for the next race!
Endless Days (1) was great last start winning here over 2000 metres. This week the Peter & Will Hulbert trained gelding is drawn barrier 19 – so Matthew McGillivray who has been in sensational form will need to be a magician from out there. Last start he defeated Miss Arabella (11) who was powering home late but just could not pick him up. This week she has drawn barrier 7 and Jim Byrne swings in the saddle again this week. The run gave me the impression that she was looking for longer. However, I am not sure how she will handle a wet track.
The Rumour File (6) from the Waller stable on the Gold Coast has been consistent without winning – maybe with Jeff Lloyd aboard this weekend we may see a better performance.
The Barry Lockwood trained Skytrek (5) has been in great form and Ric McMahon gets back aboard the gelding this weekend. He will handle the slow conditions however, like with some of the other runners, has drawn poorly in barrier 15. This should not bother him as he gets back and races home strongly – but with a wet track you may just want to be on the speed this weekend.
Selections: 11-6-5-1
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Race 5
I may have gone the wrong way here but I think if the track is wet the 1350 metres will race more like a mile. Bearing that in mind Don’t Doubt Da Wife (15) ran a great race out in front before being run down late by No Annamossity last start. I think drawn in barrier 1, Jim Byrne will lead on her and she will be hard to run down. I see that she has no real form on wet tracks but has trialled on them and performed okay – so that will do me.
Super Suave (2) motored home last start. He will handle the soft going and fourth up should be ready to show some more improvement but he has drawn wide in barrier 15.
Freddie Fox Trot (9) led and won last start at the Gold Coast – even though he shifted out in the straight he was able to hold the opposition at bay. Ryan Plumb who is riding in career best form and dominating at the Gold Coast comes to partner this one at Doomben this weekend. I think this is a great lead that he thinks he will meet the grade!
Monasterio (5) from the Waller stables loves the wet tracks and has been trialling very well on the Gold Coast – watch out for this runner first up. He may be the surprise packet of the field at massive odds of around $12.
Selections: 15-9-5-2
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Race 6
Night Attire (3) was solid behind No Annamossity at Sunshine Coast three weeks ago. That was a pretty decent effort and it must be respected here.
Antigone (6) ran very well last start at the Gold Coast and I thought was a touch unlucky when beaten just under 2 lengths. I think the extra distance and bigger Doomben track will assist the mare’s chances this weekend. She has shown previously that she does have a liking for wet tracks as well.
Prolific Belle (7) raced in the same race as Antigone (6) and was handy throughout. This weekend she is third up and does have some solid form on the slow tracks.
Seductive Dream (11) is another who likes the wet tracks and usually goes well fresh. Second up this weekend and Jeff Lloyd takes the ride - I am hoping that she may race a little more forward and be somewhere in the finish.
I don’t think anyone missed the effort of Colosimo (14) first up at the Gold Coast when she flashed home late but could not pick up the winner Miss Exfactor. She has some good form on soft tracks and has won second up. Robbie Fradd gets to stay aboard again this weekend.
Now that I have mentioned half the field where do you want to go?
It is a true lottery – any of them can win. I think it may just come down to in the end what the track conditions are and who gets the luck in the straight.
Selections: 11-14-3-6 rough chance 7
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Race 7
This is the first leg of the Quaddie.
Too hard for me this race!
Tycoon Ace (7) has drawn nice and racing on the speed will do me – a rare chance to see Toowoomba ace rider Nozi Tomizawa riding at Doomben. He can ride this bloke so don’t be scared to back him!
With A Promise (5) just seems to have not been switched on in her first two starts since resuming. I think third up here we may see the best of this Ben Currie trained runner.
Helarocity (10) is up in grade but, wow, is down in the weights dropping a massive 10 kilograms (that would be like Josh Fleming cutting off one of his second Queensland heads) since his last win at the Sunshine Coast. Emma Ljung rides this one well and maybe the weight relief is enough to compensate for the rise in class.
Old war horse Sir Moments (2) - he can pull out anything on his day. If he is ready here this weekend look for the black silks and the distinguishable lime green spot and armbands making a long sustained run at them late and out wide. Hold on Jag Guthmann-Chester if he is wound up he will give you the ride of your life!
Selections: 7-5-10-2 rough chance 1
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Race 8
I am staying with My Beebee (12). She loves wet tracks. She is solid second up and although she is drawn the car park in barrier 16 I think that this may be an advantage come the eighth race. I just hope that Bek Williams can get her in close from the barrier and ride her for luck in the straight. I have a healthy respect for this Red Dazzler mare – you will be well advised to overlook her first up run at Ipswich where she had no luck.
My Girl Hayley (10) last start was a winner at the Sunshine Coast. She will race close to the speed and will be thereabouts again.
Star of Night (7) for the Toby Edmonds and Jeff Lloyd combination will handle the soft going and, to be fair, since resuming she has been knocking on the door to break through and post a win. She probably gets her best chance to post a win this weekend.
The Darleen Duryea trained Ice Frost (9) has been very consistent over the shorter 1000 metres races. This weekend she steps up to 1200 metres for the first time. If Luke Dittman can get her to settle and she produces that customary blistering sprint at the end she is right in this race!
Selections: 12-10-7-9 rough chance 5
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Race 9
The second last race of the day – this is worse than running a marathon!
Probably the hardest race of the day as well.
I am going for the emergency Zahspeed (19) - I just hope he makes the field! This gelding has tremendous third up form and I have always thought as the distances get longer we will see the best of this Toby Edmonds runner. He is drawn not too well in barrier 12 but I think there will be some solid speed in the race that will benefit him.
The other runner that will be benefit from a solid tempo is Capetown Hussey (13) who just keeps popping up at odd occasions and a good price. Again this weekend she will be juicy odds of around $12. This race could prove to be a blow out in the Quaddie and Trebles – there are a few here that could win without surprising.
The top weight will need some luck from barrier 14 but his win at the Gold Coast over 1400 metres was sensational – Torgersen (1) will appreciate the longer distance this weekend.
Lordag (2) has had a change of jockey with Emma Ljung going on this weekend. The 2 kilogram claim should mean that he gets into the race nicely. Emma can pilot them real good. Watch for her to sneak along the rails and burst into contention within the final 100 metres of the race.
Selections: 19-13-2-1 rough chance 7
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Race 10
There are two wet trackers engaged here and both love to race fresh and normally go well. They are the Robert Heathcote trained Privlaka (6) and the Liam Birchley trained Desert General (9). It was hard to choose what one to put on top here but I decided to go with the Birchley trained Desert General (9) as he has drawn barrier 2 whilst Privlaka (6) is in barrier 15. Matthew McGillivray seems to have a fair few rides drawn wide this week. I think I will buy him a GPS so he doesn’t get lost or feel too lonely out there!
In His Stride (11) is one of those horses that gets back, settles and then swoops late. He needs some luck to get home but, I tell you what, first up after a 17 week spell do not be surprised if this Rex Lipp trained Rothesay gelding blouses them out here on Saturday. He is down in grade and to be fair if he gets any luck and jockey Robbie Fradd can give him a quiet run – watch out!
Fiery Heights (3) – well I just cannot catch this one – but on the plus side he loves rain affected tracks and he should get those conditions this weekend. Maybe he will improve – then again maybe not!
Selections: 9-6-11-3 rough chance 8
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Early Quaddie (Races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)
1,4,6,13 / 1,5,6,11 / 5,9,15 / 3,11,14 - cost is $144 for $1
Quadrella (races 7 to 10)
2,5,7,10 / 7,9,10,12 / 1,2,13,19 / 3,6,9,11 - cost is $256 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
5,7 / 10,12 / 2,19 / 6,9,11 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
7,10 / 10,12 / 13,19 / 6,9 - cost is $16 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
7,9,10,12 / 1,2,13,19 / 3,6,9,11 - cost is $64 to $1
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like it is a genuine battle between Jeff Lloyd and Jim Byrne. I am going to tip Jim Byrne. I think he is about to hit some form. If you want to go wide – Matthew McGillivray is in wonderful form – and although he has some rides that are drawn terribly, if he gets any luck he may be some massive odds here this weekend!
Best Bet
Race 8 – My Beebee (12) – around $5
Best Roughie
Race 9 – Zahspeed (19) – around $16
The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno is back again this weekend.
Be sure to follow our tips on Facebook on Saturday morning – Flemo can only improve after his record $0 result last weekend!
Good luck and good punting!
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