WINNO'S WINNERS: FLEMINGTON, NOVEMBER 4
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, November 2, 2017
This week we head to Flemington for the start of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.
Last weekend the Cox Plate Day was dominated by two noteworthy events.
Firstly, there was the champion mare Winx winning her 22nd consecutive start and in the process her third W.S.Cox Plate in a row! It was a wonderful race and she looked like she was pushed to her limits in the run. It will be interesting to see what Chris Waller and the owners have in stall for her in the coming weeks. Personally, I think she deserves a spell!
Secondly,there was the quiet achiever of racing - jockey Blake Shinn. How good was his effort last weekend at the Valley. A day of masterful riding to win four races on the program - at one stage riding three winners in a row. His feature wins were on Who Shot The Barman in the Moonee Valley Cup and then he rode Lucky Hustler to win the Crystal Mile.
It was great to see him back at his competitive best on one of the biggest days of racing!
The rail is in the true position on Saturday and the racing surface will be rated “GOOD”.
A massive nine race program – it is time to hook into the preview this week!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Tough way to open the day.
I will stay with the top weight Snitzepeg (1) who won well here two starts ago over 1400 metres. He then won again at Caulfield and I think he will get the mile here this weekend.
I really like Octabello (11) who finished behind Snitzepeg (1) last start at Caulfield. I have watched the video a few times now and I reckon he was the most unlucky runner on the day. Jockey Dwayne Dunn was stuck and held up on the inside over the final 200 metres of the race. I really think he would have finished much closer or maybe figured in the finish if he got a clear run. This weekend over a mile and the larger Flemington track at at $12 I think he represents great each way value!
The formidable team of Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman team up here with Kaonic (6) who comes off two Sydney victories and is looking to step up to Group 3 company at Flemington. Some may say this may be a stiff task - but he has won his last two starts over a mile and looks well placed here by the Waller stables.
Levendi (7) from the Peter Gelagotis yards has been well supported since the early markets have opened firming from $7.50 to $5. There is some confidence here from someone!
Selections: 1-11-6-7 rough chance 15
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Race 2
The three year old fillies step out here in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes - the traditional route for the 2017 Oaks.
I am tipping the Darren Weir trained Teodora (10) who last start was caught six and seven wide at Caulfield. I am suggesting you forget that run and look for the filly to be ridden a little closer on the speed this weekend and be close to the rail.
Bring Me Roses (1) won the Manifold last start here over 1600 metres. She made a barnstorming run to win and I would suggest that she will be suited by the 2000 metres this weekend.
Others to mention are Hiyaam (5) and Rimraam (6) who both recently met in the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield. I think they both showed enough to be considered competitive again this weekend.
Selections: 10-1-5-6
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Race 3
A sprint race up the straight - where will they go?
I reckon they may stay in the middle of the track this weekend.
The class horse in this race is Sheidel (1) who I know just loves the 1100 metres with five previous wins over the distance. I see that Blake Shinn has scored the ride this weekend. I think that she will be better back at Flemington and I am hoping to see a better performance here.
Concealer (10) has a solid record at Flemington. She is only lightly raced and I am punting on her previous runs here to give her a chance to fill a place.
Lyuba (6) and Nieta (5) both met in the Alinghi last start at Caulfield and finished second and third respectively. If there is any rain about Nieta (5) will be a good gamble as she is a duck and loves wet tracks!
Selections: 1-10-6-5
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Race 4
The Lexus Stakes for 2017 - I think from memory the winner gets the chance to go around in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday but I also believe the quality of the field this year is below standard and I bet they won’t figure in the finish on Tuesday anyway!
Kellstorm (10) was unlucky in the Geelong Cup last start when beaten by Vengeur Masque (6). In the final 100 metres of that race he really never got much room or luck. I think with the smaller field and the wide expansive Flemington track - down on the minimum he is a nice bet at around $9.
Harlem (2) was one of the more fancied runners in the Caulfield Cup from the Hayes & Dabernig team. He was chopped out between the 200 metres and 100 metres and lost all momentum. I think with a clear run this week he will be competitive here.
The winner of the Geelong Cup was Vengeur Masque (6). I just have put a question mark on the win as he did get a lot of favours in the running - the ride from Patrick Maloney was an 11 out of 10 to get him home. The win was dour and he held off all challengers.
Aloft (4) from the Hickmott yards finished tailed off at Caulfield - something must have went wrong there. Maybe a big improvement this weekend!
Selections: 10-2-6-4
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Race 5 - The Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1)
Now this is a magic field with so many chances!
A massive field of 19 to line up here down the Flemington straight. I am going out on a limb here and going to say the ones drawn wide may have an advantage here come the fifth race.
I have got it down to nine runners! It is worse than playing Lotto or Bingo!
So I think that 4,5,6,7,10,13,15,16 and 19 all have some chance - but such is the quality of the field I may have missed the winner!
Let’s start with the two Toby Edmonds runners - Eptimum (10) who has just been outstanding in Melbourne winning three from three. Last weekend he was dominant at Moonee Valley and ran some good time. Paul “The Fatman” Vautin has a share in this runner. He will be jumping for joy if he wins again this weekend.
Toby’s other runner is the 2017 Magic Millions winner Houtzen (15) who everyone seems to have fallen off. I thought her run in The Everest in Sydney was pretty good and back to her own age this weekend with the set weights I think that she gets in well. She is too good not to find a place to put her in.
Invincible Star (19) from the Waterhouse & Bott stables has been in great form as well. Her win at Caulfield leading all the way was super and the team will have her ready for this $1 million race!
Catchy (16) is drawn wide in barrier 17 and should benefit from that alley. She has won prior here at Flemington so I give her a chance as well.
Godolphin has the unbeaten Viridine (5) lining up here looking for her fifth win from five starts. That is a pretty impressive record in anyone's language! The Poet’s Voice colt has drawn barrier 1 so look for him to sit off the speed in front of him and be dragged nicely into the race late. Brenton Avdulla will be sitting back smoking his pipe as most of the speed in this race is drawn on his side of the track.
Look don’t let me talk you out of backing one here. It is a race where anyone of these runners could win. I really think to win the race they will need to run 1.09 something or less - so they will need to be at their best. With that in mind my selections are below.
Selections: 19-16-15-5 rough chances 6,7 & 10
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Race 6 - 2017 Myer Classic (Group 1)
The time honoured Myer Classic - some wonderful horses have won this race in the past.
This race can sometimes turn up a shock winner at odds though so be careful for the first leg of our Quaddie this week. It may be well worth taking the field if you are cashed up come this race!
I like the Waterhouse & Bott trained Global Glamour (2) who was awesome first up at Caulfield where it was drawn wide, crossed, took up the running and still held off all comers late to post a victory first up with Tim Clark in the saddle.
Her record is not so impressive second up - so I am a little concerned. Maybe I need to swap my selection. History shows the Star Witness mare to be undefeated third up. I am sure she will be ready for this assignment but next start I have some more confidence as well.
The danger is the Anthony Freedman trained Shoals (16) who was nothing short of amazing when she was beaten at Caulfield – by Aloisia - in the Thousand Guineas (Group 1). She has drawn a little wide in barrier 11 and she will need to get across and get some cover early here.
Now my two roughies that could blow these two away could be the Ron Quinton trained pair of Dixie Blossoms (8) and Daysee Doom (9). They ran first and second last time they clashed in the ANGST at Randwick. Since that run they have had a hit out over 1200 metres at Randwick. I think they were both just out for the run with this race in mind as probably their grand final - watch out Melbourne the NSW mares are here to lower your colours this weekend!
Selections: 2-16-9-8
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Race 7 - 2017 AAMI Victoria Derby (Group 1)
The feature race on the program - good quality field ... here we go punters!
Looks a race between the two Sydney runners Ace High (1) and Astoria (3). Last time they met at Randwick Ace High (1) accounted for Astoria (3) in the Spring Champion Stakes (Group 1). Some may say it is foolish to tip a change in the placings this week, however, since that run Astoria (3) had a nice hit out in the Geelong Classic - was caught wide and probably ran 2500 metres carrying a massive weight. This week it is set weights ... can he change the placings here? Is the Sydney form the superior guideline to the race? We will see know that answer around 3.53pm on Saturday!
I think that the Godolphin trained Astoria (3) may just pip the David Payne trained Ace High (1) this week!
I went looking for some value and for one that is on the up. I came up with Ocean’s Fourteen (11) trained by Aaron Purcell. In just his fourth career start this weekend in Group 1 company look for this Ocean Park colt to steady off the pace and fly home at them in the final 100 metres out wide on the Flemington track! Luke Nolen is a great big race jockey and he will give this runner every chance.
Selections: 3-1-11-5
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Race 8 - Kennedy Mile (Group 1)
The $1 million race is dominated by Chris Waller and Darren Weir!
Ok, I said Egg Tart (6) could not win second up the other week - I was right! However, I did say back her next start as she is tremendous third up (2 starts for 2 wins). I think she is ready for this race. Big open track, Kerrin McEvoy back on her here this weekend and three weeks between her last run at Caulfield - she will do me $7 each way all day!
Tosen Stardom (1) was very impressive at Caulfield in the Toorak (Group 1). He just stormed home late and fast and destroyed the rest of the field. He may get some speed in this race to do the same here.
Sovereign Nation (10) finished second to Tosen Stardom (1) in the Toorak with a similar run - settling back in the field and making a long sustained run, however, was just out sprinted on that occasion. He normally races well with a gap between runs and I think drawn nicely in barrier 3 he should be in with a chance.
Now the horse I can never catch is Lucky Hussler (2). If he ran the race he did last weekend in the Schweppes Crystal Mile (Group 2) at Moonee Valley and ran that time here he would destroy them in the run - but can he reproduce that run here at Flemington in a Group 1 field?
Selections: 6-1-10-2
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Race 9 – 2017 TAB Multiplier Stakes (Group 2)
The last race of the day - now this more open than the Sydney heads!
All the horses that I have chosen in my first three here have very solid third up run form and I am expecting them all to perform well.
I am staying with the Peter Snowden trained Ravi (9) who I think will strip better for the last run at Caulfield. This race looks ideal for the mare and she has drawn well in barrier 1.
Rich Charm (11) is up in class, his first ever run in a Group race. I just think that he races well over 1200 metres and could be one at value down in the weights.
Then we have the Queenslander - well I can support a QLDer this weekend. Last weekend I got to Doomben early and the first trainer I walked into was Kevin “Kempy” Kemp - he had just got off a flight from Melbourne after watching his mare Sold For Song (12) gallop on the track. He was gleaming and was so happy to tell me that she worked enormous! She has a great third up record - I am strongly suggesting you overlook the last run at Caulfield where she obviously had no luck in the run. Watch for her this week. Third up and Jimmy Orman in the saddle - she could be the surprise packet of the race!
Keen Array (2) is obviously the best runner in the race - but his consistent form means that he has to lump 58 kilograms this weekend - this may just be the steadier here with the Handicap conditions of the race.
Selections: 9-11-12-2 rough chance 8
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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)
1,5,10 / 1,10 / 2,6,10 / 5,15,16,19 - cost is $72 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9)
2,8,9,16 / 1,3,5,11 / 1,6,10 / 9,11,12 - cost is $144 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,16 / 1,3,11 / 1,6 / 9,12 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,16 / 1,3 / 6 / 9,11,12 - cost is $12 to $1
Silly Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
16 / 1,3 / 6 / 9 - cost is $2 to $1
Treble(races 7 to 9)
1,3,5,11 / 1,6,10 / 9,11,12 - cost is $36 to $1
Jockey Challenge
Looks like a great battle between Kerrin McEvoy, Damian Lane and Dean Yendall – I am going Kerrin this weekend in a tough tight battle - watch out as we could see the riding spoils shared this weekend on a very open and hard program.
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Best Bets
Race 5 - Invincible Star (19) around $7.50
Race 8 - Egg Tart (6) around $7
Race 9 - Ravi (9) around $5
Best Roughies
Race 1 - Octabello (11) around $12
Race 2 - Teodora (10) around $10
Race 4 - Kellstorm around $9
Good luck and good punting!
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