THE CUP: GET THE RIGHT RESULT, GET A BIG RETURN

By Graham Potter | Tuesday, November 7, 2017

The ‘five point plan’ – a (theoretical) quick path to finding a winning Melbourne Cup bet.

Step 1:

Who has won over the distance?

Hartnell (1), Almandin (2), Red Cardinal (6), Max Dynamite (9), Wicklow Brave (12), Gallante (16), Thomas Hobson (21).

Step 2:

Who has won at Flemington?

Hartnell (1), Almandin (2), Humidor (3), Boom Time (15), Amelie’s Star (23), Cismontane (24).

Step 3:

Who has the current form in terms of recent wins?

Tiberian (4) – won last two starts, Marmelo (5) – won penultimate start, Red Cardinal (6) – won two out of last three starts, Max Dynamite (9) – won last start, Big Duke (13) – won penultimate start, Boom Time (15) – won last start, Nakeeta (18) – won last start, Amelie’s Star (23) – won penultimate start, Cismontane (24) – won last start.

Step 4:

Who has won at Group 1 level in recent months?

Humidor (3),Boom Time (15).

Step 5:

Evaluate all of the above and make a selection.

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All of the above is statistical and therefore simplistic. Of course, there are other factors ... the track conditions, trainer’s expertise, jockey’s skills, gear changes, betting moves and the like ... but the five steps listed above gives a fair guide as to the claims of the runners based on important, core criteria.

Boom Time (15) features in three of the four key steps but, maybe importantly, is a no show in the ‘distance’ test. Hartnell (1), Almandin (2), Humidor (3), Red Cardinal (6), Max Dynamite (9), Amelie’s Star (23) and Cismontane (24) all feature in two out of the four key steps. (Your final assessment will depend on the weight you attach to each question).

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Let’s stop right there and box the trifecta with these eight horses. Hartnell (1), Almandin (2), Humidor (3) Red Cardinal (6), Max Dynamite (9), Boom Time (15), Amelie’s Star (23) and Cismontane (24) at whatever percentage suits the pocket ($34.00 will get you 10%). At the time of writing, these horses range in price from $9.50 to $51,00.

It's worth a shot!

Remember this selection is based on specified statistics only ... but, while it is always a gamble, the ultimate target remains the same whichever way you go about it.

Get the right result, get a big return.