WINNO'S WINNERS, FLEMINGTON, NOVEMBER 11

By Darren Winningham | Friday, November 10, 2017

MELBOURNE EMIRATES STAKES DAY PREVIEW – SATURDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2017

Well the Melbourne Cup was run and won on Tuesday. I was around the money with my selections of 7 & 9 coming second and third. I did have the winner in as a chance!

Well done to Corey Brown on his second Cup win - it was a remarkable ride. So he has claimed a unique double - the 2017 Melbourne Cup and the 2017 Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane!

Overall, I was on fire on Tuesday with my selections - thanks to all the comments from the punters who had a great day!

Here’s a summary:

Race 1 - Setsuna (1) to beat the first starter Aristocratic Miss (3) Setsuna - Winner at $6 - Aristocratic Miss third at $15

Race 2 - Invincibella (3) - ran second got too far back

Race 5 - Prezardo (11) each way Winner at $26

Race 6 - Our Crown Mistress (2) Winner at $2.40

Race 10 - Swampland (11) from Pedrena (13) - Pedrena won at $8.50 - Swampland ran third at $9

Lastly a shout out to Matthew Hill who called his first of hopefully many Melbourne Cups on Tuesday. The call was wonderful - the excitement and the enthusiasm - and to hear his voice lift in the final 150 metres was truly a brilliant joy. Congratulations mate on a magnificent call.

Just stop and think how much pressure is on Matthew each day with four major race meetings in a week - with around 150 runners each day - for him to learn their colours and to then deliver that into a compelling commentary. I am sure he will be having a well-deserved beer of five after the last race on Saturday!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

So we open the Emirates Day with a two year old sprint down the straight.

I think, now we are at day 4 of the Carnival, the horses drawn wide will be the ones to be on here.

I like Bionics (1) who was a close up second to Setsuna who won the first race on Cup Day. Bionics has drawn barrier 10 and I think this side of the track may be a distinct advantage.

KIng (6) is a Written Tycoon colt from the James Harron Bloodstock Syndications trained by the Snowden team. This colt won a trial 3 weeks ago at Randwick. He looked well forward and has been whipped down to Melbourne for the Carnival by the Snowden team - the stable has a good opinion of this one! He could be one right out of the box, however he has drawn barrier 1 - I am not sure whether that will be the best place to be.

The Godolphin runner Sanglier (5) is trained by James Cummings - his debut run here on 7 October was nice. They have given him a month off. My Melbourne spies say he has been working well and has improved since that debut run. I would be looking for this one at odds - he has drawn barrier 12 as well so should be on the right side of the track.

Selections: 1-6-5-3 rough chance 4

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Race 2

Not a race I can excited about to be honest.

Godolphin has Tarquin (2) engaged . He ran a gallant second in the Moe Cup 3 weeks ago and looks well placed here on the bigger Flemington track.

I have tipped Meet and Greet (8) who comes off a run in the Bendigo Cup where he ran last after leading. This week down in class and weight and I think he should lead this bunch here and he may prove difficult to run down with Noel Callow in the saddle.

Selections: 8-2-9-1

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Race 3

Fastnet Tempest (1) is an Irish invader (yes another one!) who ran well at Sale after a nice run at Caulfield.

He looks like he has the field covered and has had two solid hit outs in Australia. His best form is over the mile - he gets that this weekend at Flemington. I think the wide open spaces of the Flemington track will suit this gelding trained by William Haggas.

Master Reset (5) didn’t fire last start at Moonee Valley - I am forgiving the gelding that run and I am going on previous run here first up when he was a solid fourth. He has a wonderful third up record. I think we should be very careful of this runner this weekend.

Jacquinot Bay (4) from the Hayes & Dabernig team just seems to keep getting better. He is now a ten year old and just keeps pulling out a decent run every now and then - he likes this track and distance and should be in the placings.

Selections: 1-5-4-2

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Race 4

There have been two smashed in the early markets.

One is Supply and Demand (1) from the Waterhouse & Bott team who have already found success at the Cup Carnival notably winning the 2017 Oaks with Pinot on Thursday.

Supply and Demand (1) has been backed from $6.50 to $4.80 since the markets have opened. I did see this gelding win the 2017 Grafton Cup this year with a dominant all the way victory under a superb ride from Josh Parr. I would have been a little more confident if he was running over a mile, however, if he leads and they leave him alone in front he may just run them into the ground.

Lite’n in My Veins (7) has also been well found as well firming from $4.50 to $3.30.

This five year old gelding is trained by Aaron Purcell and will be ridden by Craig Williams. He is second up this week after finishing a strong fifth behind Rich Charm at Caulfield when resuming from a spell. His second up record is eye catching with four starts for three wins.

I am tipping at some odds to beat him these two market movers . Bassett (3), from the Mick Price stable, I think has been knocking on the door looking for a victory. He steps up this weekend to 1400 metres at his fourth run after a spell. I really think that this increased distance will suit him and we will see the best of him this weekend - at $12 each way all day for me!

Lord Aspen (2) from South Australia always seems to pop his head up over the Carnival each year - he had a recent win at Morphettville and has come to Flemington looking for a win. He is another runner who will appreciate the 1400 metres of this race and he does have two previous wins at Flemington.

Selections: 3-7-2-1 rough chance 8

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Race 5

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes for 2017 - a tough race for mine!

I see that Darren Weir has made a notable gear change to Gallic Chieftain (6) by putting blinkers on the stallion for the first time. I think that this will assist the five year old who just ran out of ground last start in the Geelong Cup when sent out a $3 favourite and went down narrowly to Vengeur Masque (4).

I think that at Flemington and given a clear run by Craig Williams we will see the tables turned and he should win this race!

Clearly he will have to get past Vengeur Masque (4) again here who ran a cheeky race in the Lexus last Saturday when beaten by Cismontane. That run was great and he should be respected - the only concern I have is the quick turnaround between runs (1 week) with the Weir runner being freshened and having two weeks off since his last run.

The other two runners that should run well and fill the placings come out of the Bendigo Cup. They are Qewy (1) from the Charlie Appleby stable who won that race ... and the horse that he beat on that occasion Kiwia (3).

I think that Kiwia (3) has the most improvement in him and is only a lightly raced four year old trained by Darren Weir.

This could be a feature race quinella for the Weir team!

Selections: 6-3-4-1 rough chance 7

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Race 6

A Group 2 race for the mares over 2000 metres - this could be tough!

It looks like it is $5 the field so I may struggle here!

I think that the Greg Eurell trained Falika (6) gets in well and, after three wins a row, looks like the one that may just hold this lot out.

I was on Tahanee (7) on Tuesday (Cup Day) when she raced handy and won well over 1700 metres. She goes up in weight slightly, however, I think that if she can back up with the short turnaround she will be very competitive here. I am sure the Darren Weir stable would not let her go around if she has not thrived after that win.

Prompt Response (2) from the Waterhouse & Bott stables ran a wonderful race last weekend in the Myer Classic (Group 1). She has never had a run over the 2000 metres before. However she is drawn nicely in barrier 5 and with Blake Shinn aboard again this weekend look for him to get a nice run not too far off the speed and expose her around the clock tower when making his move and attempt to win the race.

I do think that if she settles she is right in this race. There has been no early support for her in the markets - keep your eye on the markets as if they come for her she may be the one to beat!

Selections: 6-2-7-9 rough chance 10

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Race 7

The Darley Classic - Group 1 over 1200 metres.

What can you say about Redzel (2). Peter & Paul Snowden have got the five year old Snitzel gelding firing!

After the impressive win in the Doomben 10,000 back in May he was put away and has come back and won his past three starts in wonderful fashion. Last start he proved it was no fluke winning the inaugural running of The Everest at Randwick when he dominated a wonderful field and ran 1.08.36. This weekend he is drawn barrier 10 and I think that the wide barriers will have a distinct advantage here.

I like the chances of Malaguerra (5) who has drawn the widest in barrier 14 as well. He has been well supported firming from $20 to $13 since the markets have opened - maybe it is the money of owner and good bloke Bruno Micalizzi. As we all know he loves a bet and he always puts his money where his mouth is! Good luck mate!

In Her Time (12) has the bar plates off her front hooves this weekend and synthetic hoof filler being applied for the first time. This Time Thief mare was sensational in the Manikato at Moonee Valley two weeks ago when beaten by Hey Doc. I think that she was not suited by the track or the tempo of that race. This weekend back to a wide open track and being ridden for luck she may feature in the finish. She has the unfortunate draw of barrier 1,however, Corey Brown may elect to keep her in the middle of the track.

Then you have the grand old grey war horse Chautauqua (1) who has just had no luck this preparation. Look I would love to see him return to his old form and come down the outside grandstand rail with the crowd at Flemington roaring as he surges away from them! He has drawn out there in barrier 13 and I just hope that Brenton Avdulla can get him placed well and ignite him at the right time - this would be an amazing way to close off the Carnival this year!

Selections: 2-5-12-1 rough chance 13

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Race 8

The 2017 Emirates Stakes (Group 1) over 2000 metres at WFA.

Okay there is no WINX - so what do we need to look for here?

I am probably going to be ridiculed here but I am tipping the three year old from the Darren Weir stables - Cliff’s Edge (15). I know he is up in class and against open company - however, I think the weight relief of 51 kilograms offsets those issues. Dean Yendall will give him every chance and I just think that come this late in the program on Saturday he will be out in front and the others will be chasing him late.

Look I know that he may cave in and there are other better more seasoned horses in the race but I think he will give you a great sight for your money at around $6.

Folkswood (7) comes out of the W.S.Cox Plate when he was beaten by Winx by 4.65 lengths - pretty good form for this race! I think that he has shown a liking to a longer straight where he can wind up and make a sustained run. He did this when he won the Cranbourne Cup a month ago.

Tosen Stardom (4), the ex-Japanese runner now trained by Darren Weir, is second up here this week. He does have an impressive record second up - I just hope he can find some of that winning form that he was renowned for in Japan.

Gingernuts (10) from New Zealand rounds out my top selections - if there is any rain or the track gets downgraded he is the one to beat. He is a mudlark and loves the wet. It is great to see apprentice Michael Dee pick up the ride on this one.

Selections: 15-7-4-10 rough chances 3 and 6

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Race 9

The last race of the program of Melbourne Cup week - I hope you all have had a profitable week!

We finish off with the Listed Emirates Airline Handicap. I would love to jump on an A380 from Emirates and just experience the wonderful service and the amazing feeling of being in such a massive aircraft - oh well one day it may happen!

Well it looks like we will be drinking beer after the last if Darren Weir can salute with Tamasa (5). This is a So You Can Think colt that has won his first two career starts and comes to the big smoke to take on Listed company in only his third ever start. I know a big ask, but seriously the win at Bendigo and the time of 1.23.04 really grabbed my attention. I think if he turns up and runs that sought of time or can improve a little more he is right in this race - and at $6 represents great value for mine!

Icon of Dubai (9) raced last weekend in the Poseidon Stakes (Listed) and had no luck being caught 4 deep for a majority of the trip. I know he is drawn awkwardly this weekend again in barrier 12, but look for Michael Walker to steady him from the draw and ride him for luck 3 or 4 off the rail and maybe get the breaks in the straight!

He is great value as well at around the $8 mark.

Trekking (3) was just out of luck at Moonee Valley - throw a pen through that run and go on the solid performance at Caulfield eight weeks ago in the Group H.D.F. McNeil Stakes. If you forgive the run at the Valley and go on that previous start he is another one a genuine each way chance.

Andaz (4) is the favourite and, to be fair, was a touch unlucky last start here last week in the Coolmore. I just think the other three runners are better value!

Selections: 5-9-3-4

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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

2,8 / 1,4,5 / 2,3,7 / 3,4,6 - cost is $54 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

2,6,7 / 1,2,5,12 / 4,7,10,15 / 3,5,9 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

2,6 / 2,5 / 4,7,15 / 5,9 - cost is $24 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

2,6 / 1,2 / 7,15 / 3,5 - cost is $16 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,2,5,12 / 4,7,10,15 / 3,5,9 - cost is $48 to $1

Big 6 (races 4 to 9 NSW TAB)

3,7 / 3,6 / 2,6 / 1,2,5 / 4,7,15 /3,5,9 - cost is $216 to $1
If you want to be brave take the field in race 8!

Jockeys Challenge

Kerrin McEvoy to win.

BEST BETS

Race 4 - Bassett (3) around $12
Race 5 - Gallic Chieftain (6) around $4.50
Race 6 - Falika (6) around $5
Race 7 - Redzel (2) around $4
Race 8 - Cliff's Edge (15) around $6
Race 9 - Tamasa (6) - around $7

Good luck and good punting!

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