WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 2
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, November 30, 2017
DOOMBEN RACES – SATURDAY 2 DECEMBER 2017
This week we are back at Doomben for the races. After the severe downpour on Wednesday the track is “HEAVY” and what happens over the next couple of days weather-wise will go a long way towards determining the chances of many of the runners. If there is no change in the track rating the fields could be decimated by scratchings of those horses who cannot handle the wet track. Either way the rail returns to its true position for the meeting.
It may be best to be very cautious with your investments this weekend!
So this week my shout out is for South African Robbie Fradd who gave the other jockeys a riding lesson on Wednesday at the Gold Coast. In all he rode five outright winners, and dead-heated in another race over the nine race card ... and nearly posted an additional when he just got beaten in the last race. Well done Robbie!
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Another racing highlight is almost upon us ... that is the State of Origin Jockey Challenge that takes on a reinvigorated format this year!
The series will be staged at Doomben meetings on Friday December 8, and Saturday December 9, with the final day at Caloundra on Sunday, December 10.
The teams have been posted as:
Michael Rodd and Tye Angland - NSW
Here are the winners! Who cares about the rest of them!
Okay I will be fair the others making up the numbers are:
Jim Byrne and Matt McGillivray - QLD
Craig Newitt and Brendan McCoull - Tasmania
Luke Nolen and Clare Lindop - Victoria
Dwayne Dunn and Jamie Kah - South Australia
Damian Browne and Larry Cassidy - New Zealand
Robbie Fradd and Mark Du Plessis – All Stars
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Just a reminder that this weekend I am packing my cameras and heading to the “Moonee Valley of the North” - Kilcoy race course for their annual Cannonball Series Final and their X-mas meeting.
This is always a wonderful day with amazing hospitality being shown by the club - country racing at its finest with a solid bank of bookmakers and I will tip you a winner before you get on track. Make sure you grab one of the famous Kilcoy Race Club steak burgers! They are amazing and they sell out fast!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
This week we start off the program with a stayer’s race. Only a small field but it could still be difficult to find a winner! Most of these have credible wet weather form so your guess is as good as mine.
Look, if the track is heavy the best credentialed runner is Magnatude (3) and he gets in well with the claim for apprentice Adam Sewell.
Last start Anton En Avant (2) was a victim of circumstances and the ride was scrutinised by the stewards. He was caught three wide when the pace seemed to go out of the race when beaten by My Giuliano (1). I am not sure whether the result would have been reversed but he probably should have been placed closer at the finish.
My Giuliano (1) from the in-form Chris Waller stables at the Gold Coast has won his last two starts. Waller’s Queensland team seems to have got some momentum now with a winning double last weekend at Doomben. My Giuliano handles all types of track conditions. He will be hard to beat again this weekend.
The Rumour File (4), another runner from the Waller team, was unlucky last weekend - drawing wide and then being held up for a run when beaten by his stable mate Kirini. He is not a fan of wet tracks but look for another solid effort this weekend.
Selections: 3-1-2-4
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Race 2
I am tipping the Liam Birchley trained Black Mink (14) to be ridden by Matthew McGillivray, who won his first Listed race on Crack Me Up last weekend for the same stable. Maybe this combination can succeed again this weekend. This filly has won on heavy conditions and is undefeated first up with two wins from two starts. I am gambling that she is forward enough to show something here. Some nice odds on offer as well at $14 - so something each way here may yield a nice result.
The danger has to be the Toby Edmonds trained I’ve Gotta Nel (1) who was run down three weeks ago by Amanaat (who came out and won again last weekend). This gelding does love the wet conditions and with Jeff Lloyd on a holiday overseas Corey Brown has made the trip north this weekend to partner this runner - a genuine chance!
Stellarcraft (3) trained by David Murphy at Eagle Farm is another who thrives on wet tracks. This weekend he steps up to 1050 metres at Doomben after a nice run at Ipswich ten days ago. I thought that the Ipswich track really didn’t suit this gelding and we may see a better run this weekend at Doomben in the wet conditions.
Viceman (4) has joined the Matthew Dunn team at Murwillumbah recently and has had one start at Ipswich for the new stable. He has drawn the rail in barrier 1 and has performed well previously second up.
Selections: 14-1-3-4
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Race 3
Osbeck (3) was impressive winning a trial at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago. The Chris Waller colt has drawn barrier 1 and should be well placed throughout the race by jockey Glen Colless.
I note there are a couple of debutants here that have trialled well. One of them is the Kelso Wood and Patricia Gesler trained Veranes (12) who won a recent trial in a nice time. The performance of the Not A Single Doubt filly was very good and there appears some early support for her on debut. The money is normally on the money when this stable opens their wallets!
The other debutant is the first emergency Phoenix Shadow (13) trained on the Gold Coast by the Gillian Heinrich & Ben Rodgers team. Again a winner of a barrier trial - not in a flash time, but the performance looked solid and I think that this colt will take some benefit from that hit out in preparation for his debut here. The bookies have him at $31. If he makes the field I am not too certain that that massive price will be found on race day!
The other well performed runner is the John Zielke trained Miracles Aplenty (6) who was beaten by her stable mate last start at Doomben. There were plenty of excuses for that run when she was tightened in running and then also sprung both fore plates in the race - so there are some very good reason to overlook that run. Zielke has given her five weeks off since that run and Luke Dittman has stayed aboard her. These two are a lethal team this time of the year and especially with two year olds - do not leave this one out of your exotics.
Selections: 3-12-6-13
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Race 4
Courtza King (6) looks well placed here and the wet track should suit this Tony Gollan trained gelding. Jim Byrne is aboard again this week. I did hear he had a barrier trial mishap earlier in the week, however, he is a tough little critter - so I am sure he will be ready to punch out a few winners here this weekend!
Ice Frost (10) has no real wet weather form that I can find. However, I think down in the weights here and lightly raced, this mare, trained by Darleen Duryea at Beaudesert, who has already tasted victory in the city will be very competitive.
The unlucky runner ... he just gets no luck ... is In His Stride (1) I really do like this Rex Lipp gelding and, to be honest, if he gets any luck in this restricted grade race he could just come out and make the opposition look second rate. He has a brilliant third up record with 2 wins and 2 seconds - forget the last run at Ipswich - the track just didn’t suit him at all. Brad Stewart takes the ride here. He has been riding in great form. At the massive odds of $14 I think we have is a genuine contender here to knock over the more fancied runners. To be honest I have nearly talked myself into backing him!
I have thrown in the Paul Butterworth trained Counter Meal (5) for a place as well - this one loves the heavy conditions - if the track deteriorates he looks well placed!
Selections: 6-1-10-5
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Race 5
The first Listed Race on the program this weekend - the Bobby Clarke Mode Plate over 1200 metres.
I see Peter & Paul Snowden have sent their filly Pretty Fast (3) back to Doomben looking for some black type next to her career performance. Last time she was here in the Winter Carnival she was extremely unlucky in the Winning Edge Stakes (Listed) when she was sent out a short priced favourite with this week’s jockey in the saddle Damian Browne.
She was hampered in the straight, then he got her balanced and tried to take a run and she was held up again around the 150 metres and then he may as well sat up on her as she never got a fair go at them in the straight.
After that run she was sent for a spell and since resuming has won a maiden race and then put two more strong wins together. So this weekend she is looking for redemption at Doomben! She does not have any heavy track form, however, she has won two starts on soft - so I am hoping that she will handle the conditions she encounters this weekend.
Cooroi Chase (2) is a duck - she loves the wet tracks and the wetter and the heavier they are the better she goes! Last start she got back onto a heavy surface and destroyed the opposition. If she gets bottomless , heavy track conditions this weekend she is the one to beat! I am certain that Will Hulbert will probably be out at Doomben Friday and early Saturday morning in his bright green mankini doing a rain dance hoping for it to bucket down all weekend. I think I owe the readers an apology here - that would be one awful sight!
Toby Edmonds has Winter Blade (4) in the race with Jim Byrne taking over from Jeff Lloyd. This filly won a race on the heavy track as well (the same weekend Cooroi Chase won). She looks like another one that will be best suited on heavy conditions - maybe Trent Edmonds can join his good mate Will Hulbert at the track doing a rain dance!
If the rain goes away and the track improves the Steven O’dea runner Dream Kisses (1) is second up here and will be improved for the first up run and could be one at some odds to knock them all out!
Selections: 3-2-4-1
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Race 6
The Become a BRC Member Handicap - maybe not a bad idea with the Summer Carnival upon us and the 2018 Winter Carnival six months away!
Well last week I did say this about the Bruce Brown trained Revaldor (9): “Revaldor (7) is a $51 chance – I think they are kidding! The wet track form with this Bruce Brown runner is fairly solid and he does love the mile distance. I think he is a genuine knock out chance in what is an open field”.
Well the rest is history – the horse won at $26 – the first four and trifecta was boxed by WINNO and tipped to the punters as well – the first 4 paying in excess of $8,000 on NSW TAB.
Can he back up this weekend and win ? He does love wet tracks!
In the same race Aqua Vite (15) drew wide - tailed off and then was forced to be ridden for luck. Unfortunately, the task was too great but this Scott Morrisey trained gelding still flew home over the 1350 metres to run a gallant fourth. Like Revaldor (9), Aqua Vite (15) is on a quick one week back up. There is a jockey change with Michael Murphy taking the ride and taking 3 kilograms off him this week - so he should only carry 51 kilograms if Murphy stays away from the sushi at Portside! Again this runner is a massive fan of heavy going and he is drawn better this weekend. I am thinking with the engagement of Murphy ... and the lightweight ... the intention is to lead or have the Northern Meteor gelding ridden just off the speed. Let’s see what happens!
The Robert Heathcote No Annamossity (2) has been racing consistently - posting a win in each of his last three starts with the unique record of a different jockey winning on the gelding each time! This weekend he has broken that record by retaining the services of Ruby Ride (a 3 kilogram claiming apprentice) who won on him last start in a daring ride!
This is an even and open race to start off this week’s Quaddie.
Selections: 15-9-2-8
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Race 7
The 2017 Winning Rupert Plate …. This race is normally a good guide towards the Brisbane Summer races and the Magic Millions Day in 2018. So get near a TV and review this one for the future!
This race sees the return of the 2017 J. J. Atkins (Group 1) winner Capital Gain who is trained by Paul Butterworth. He normally races well fresh but may need some luck in running as he likes to settle off the speed and fly home late.
The other runner that comes out of the J.J.Atkins is the Greg Hickman trained Pierata (6) who is co-owned by the big fella and one of the good blokes of racing Tony Bonello. He hasn’t contacted WINNO yet this week to say he will be in Brisbane - maybe he is dodging me! This Pierro colt normally takes up a handy position in the running and has drawn barrier 1 here this weekend . He has soft ground form and I think the fact that Corey Brown has come to Brisbane to ride this runner is a good sign that he may be ready for a dynamic summer in Brisbane! The recent trial win at Randwick with Brenton Avdulla aboard with a winning margin of 5.5 lengths looked pretty good - well actually looked sensational!
The two Chris Munce runners Saint Patricks Day (4) and Dazzling Red (5) have genuine chances here as well.
Saint Patricks Day (4) is third up this weekend after running a nice race on a heavy track last start when beaten by Bring It Home Pop (2). He does look like he would have derived some benefit from that hit out.
Dazzling Red (5) has been working through the grades nicely and has won three in a row since resuming from a spell. He has won on soft tracks so I am thinking the track conditions will not bother him this weekend. Jeff Lloyd rode him last start at Doomben, three weeks ago, and when he dismounted was very bullish of this Red Dazzler geldings performance. Maybe this is the one with the good form at the moment that should not be overlooked.
Bring It Home Pop (2) races well on damp tracks or tracks with some cut in them so I expect this Darryl Hansen runner to be right in this race this weekend! He has a nice second up record and he really was not pressured in his first up run on the heavy track.
Now if there is a knockout chance here it could be Mishani Bullitt (3) who has had a seven week freshen up and could just race well here despite the wide barrier. Chris Anderson was extremely disappointed with the ride last start when he got caught wide and just had no luck. He did resume with a nice win first up at the start of this preparation. This weekend he is drawn a little wide, however, the stable has chosen to put Damian Browne aboard - maybe this is a clear indication they expect him to race well fresh and be competitive - after all he did run a solid fourth in the J.J.Atkins (Group 1) earlier this year - so he does have the ability to win this. At $8 he is the largest price he has been in his last five starts.
A nice race with many chances punters! Now for the selections!
Selections: 6-8-5-2 rough chance 1 & 4
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Race 8
The races just keep getting better - this time it is the George Moore Group 3 race over 1200 metres.
I must declare an obsession here - the Peter & Paul Snowden runner Calanda (5) was superb winning the 2017 Grafton Ramornie with Jim Byrne in the saddle. Since then the Snitzel gelding has had two starts in Melbourne over the Spring Carnival and, to be fair, the runs were very solid. I really think from barrier 4 and with three weeks between runs he is a genuine chance.
I have gone for some roughies to fill the places - all horses from NSW - this could be a trifecta for NSW!
Egyptian Symbol (8) is trained by Bjorn Baker and she was very solid over the Brisbane Winter Carnival. She has had two nice hit outs in trials for this first up assignment - (Note - she is dual nominated - for Sydney Race 8 as well on Saturday with Jason Collett aboard). My mail is she will probably start in Sydney.
Palazzo Pubblico (9) was the other Sydney runner I like - trained at Warwick Farm by Matthew Smith. (Note - she is dual nominated - for Sydney Race 8 as well on Saturday with Rachel King aboard). She is second up and with the wet weather around in Brisbane she will probably run in Sydney as well.
Big Money (3) is another one dual accepted in the same race in Sydney - he will definitely run there if the track is rain affected in Brisbane.
So the race is so hard to assess with a number of runners dual accepted. Assuming Big Money (3), Egyptian Symbol (8) and Palazzo Pubblico (9) stay down there I will have to drastically alter my tips!
The other runner who loves the cut out of the ground and always races well fresh is Snoopy (10) - being a person who loves beagles I suppose this is a topical tip. This gelding is now trained by Chris Munce at Eagle Farm and is resuming from a 26 week spell - watch out for this one to be storming home late.
Monsieur Gustave (2) resumed at Ipswich and won the postponed Keith Noud (Listed) race. This gelding does love soft tracks with four wins from four starts and second up the form is blistering with three wins from four starts. I am just concerned with his form at the Doomben track - however, the statistics do not lie!
Finally Brooklyn Storm (14) must be given a chance here - forget the run at Ipswich in the postponed Keith Noud (Listed) race where he was beaten by Monsieur Gustave (2). I think back at Doomben and third up he is better placed.
Selections: 5-10-2-14
If the dual acceptor runners stay in this field my selections are: 5-9-10-2
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Race 9
The last race of the day on a superb program! But what a way to finish it - with a Class 3 race over 1200 metres!
I am finishing off the day with some roughies - I will probably take the field in my Quaddie and Treble with the number of runners and the open field that we face here.
I am tipping the Tony Gollan runner Salmanazar (11) to resume here and put in a solid performance at the massive odds of $16. This Encosta de Lago gelding last start suffered from breathing difficulties. He since has had some surgery to correct this and his recent barrier trial at Deagon on a soft track was enough for me to put him on top. I may be one run early tipping him - but I will be following him closely over the coming weeks no matter what he does this weekend.
The other runner who has had a solid hit out in a barrier trial is the Robert Heathcote trained Kubis (13) - he won that trial at Deagon on a slow track and is resuming after a 16 week spell. Look I know he doesn’t win out of turn but I tell you what he looked pretty good in that trial and again at $10 represents good value in this open field.
Mick Lakey has Our Jamaica (16) nominated. This runner loves the cut out of the ground and again always seems to find a place at big odds. He has drawn badly in barrier 17 so Tiffani Brooker will need to get some luck from out there.
Toby Edmonds rounds out the day with L’elu (14) who resumed at Ipswich with a nice run when sent out as favourite. Previous to that run he looked forward in a barrier trial at his home track on the Gold Coast. Again plenty of horses have been brought undone at their first run at Ipswich so I am strongly suggesting you forgive that run and I think he is a genuine chance here in the last race. Paul Hammersley takes the mount this weekend and this one is a $7 chance in the early markets. Hammer got a nice win last weekend aboard Revaldor . He is in good form. Watch out!
Valfierno (6) trained by Stuart Kendrick went amiss last start at Doomben - no one knew what happened. He has had a 4 week break and Damian Browne has taken the ride this weekend - he may be another one at some odds (currently $10) to put into your exotic bets!
Selections: 11-13-14-6 rough chance 16
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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only)
1,3,14 / 3,6,12,13 / 1,6,10 / 1,2,3,4 - cost is $144 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9)
2,8,9,15 / 2,5,6,8 / 2,5,10,14 / 6,11,13,14 - cost is $256 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
9,15 / 5,6,8 / 2,5,10 / 11,13,14 - cost is $108 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,15 / 6,8 / 2,5 / 11,13,14 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,5,6,8 / 2,5,10,14 / 6,11,13,14 - cost is $64 to $1
Jockey Challenge
It looks like a great battle between Damian Browne and Jim Byrne – I am going Brownie in a tight battle - but just make sure you review the scratchings on Saturday as he only has limited rides!
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Best Bets
Race 5 - Pretty Fast (3) around $2.20
Race 6 - Aqua Vite (15) around $4.20
Race 7 - Pierata (6) around $3
Race 8 - Calanda (5) around $3.20
Best Roughies
Race 2 - Black Mink (14) around $14
Race 3 - Phoenix Shadow (13) around $31
Race 4 - In His Stride (1) around $14
Race 7 - Mishani Bullitt (3) around $8
Race 9 - Salmanazar (11) around $16
Good luck and good punting!
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