WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 9
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, December 7, 2017
DOOMBEN RACES SATURDAY 9 DECEMBER 2017
Well it is here the UBET State of Origin Challenge. I am not going to bore you all with any more details other than NSW will prevail - Tye Angland and Michael Rodd - great talented riders and they “bleed blue”!
The Doomben track is rated a “SOFT 6” ... however, with racing there on Friday and the chance of warm conditions for the rest of the week we should race on a GOOD track. That is my prediction!
Maybe it is ironic that the track is rated a SOFT 6 - maybe it is referring to the other teams in the Jockey Challenge!
Straight into the tips this week! With Graham Potter on assignment in Hong Kong for his virgin trip to the International Races I am in control - anything goes this week!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
*****************************************************************************************************
Race 1
The two year olds step out in the first.
The Kelly Doughty trained Blue Book (1) has won his two career starts - this weekend Michael Rodd takes over from Jeff Lloyd who is on a holiday. I thought last start he struggled over the final 50 metres but he still toughed it out and got the task done.
I think the only real danger this weekend is Fullazaboot (2) who won on a heavy track on debut.
Selections: 1-2-3-4 rough chance 6
***************************************************************************************************
Race 2
Big field open race - take a number out of the barrell and you may just jag the winner here!
Mehmeto (3) from the Rob Heathcote yards gave a solid performance last start here when narrowly beaten - so I will put the gelding on top.
Kelly Doughty and Michael Rodd combine again here with Benefica Princess (11). This mare ran in some quality races over the Winter Carnival. She is back in grade and second up here after a nice win at the Gold Coast when resuming ... a genuine knock out chance at $10.
Night Attire (4) has never won at Doomben in four starts - he has Matt McGillivray aboard who could win on a broomstick at the moment so I put this one in for a place!
Selections: 3-11-4-8
****************************************************************************************************
Race 3
I like the Toby Edmonds trained Boom Boom Epic (4) here. Last start she had no luck and this weekend the winkers go on and the blinkers off - look for an improved performance.
I think that you should overlook the run of Zofonic Dancer (2) last start after a small let up. I really think the mile is the go for this gelding and he gets that this weekend - so look out for his to return to the form that seen him win three in a row with Matthew McGillivray aboard.
Magnufighter (1) has been in great form winning his last two starts and must be respected - I think the weight may bring him back to them this weekend.
Selections: 4-2-1-3
*****************************************************************************************************
Race 4 - UBET Origin Series Race
Heat one of the Series for Saturday. Big open Class 2 field.
Chamalu (2) has been racing consistently and deserves a chance to break through here this weekend - Robbie Fradd (All Stars) takes the ride for Liam Birchley.
Realing (6) for the Matthew Dunn team was considered to be a chance over the Winter Carnival. I am not too sure whether the wet tracks played a major part in his lack of success. He has resumed with two runs in Sydney at Rosehill and third up here with Tye Angland (NSW) aboard i would think we may see a good performance although he has drawn horridly in barrier 18 which is the only concern.
Cushion Pink (11) from the Heathcote team could be the blow out here at some nice odds of $11. Luke Nolen (Victoria) and Heathcote have had a lethal strike rate in the path - so maybe with them reuniting there could be a boil over!
Selections: 2-6-11-7
****************************************************************************************************
Race 5
I have gone for some value here - I like the Barry Baldwin trained All That is (16) to be ridden by Ronnie Stewart. She is back in grade and not too badly drawn compared with some of the fancied runners so she will do me at around the $8 mark.
I really like an emergency if she gets the run from the Grafton yards of Ian Savins - Passion To Win (20) who has drawn handy in barrier 4 and always performs well when she comes to town. At $41 in some markets she represents serious value if she gets a run.
The other runners worth a second glance here have drawn wide and will need some luck or maybe they will be scratched and allowed and left to fight another day. They are the Desleigh Forster trained Zendaye (8) in barrier 14, the Toby Edmonds trained Plucky Girl (11) in barrier 22 and finally the Kurt Goldman trained Ruthless Agent in barrier 16.
Selections: 16-10-8-10 rough chance 11
***************************************************************************************************
Race 6 UBET Origin Series Race
Heat 2 over 2000 metres - this will test them out!
Could be a great chance for the Chris Waller's Gold Coast stables to quinella the race with Monasterio (9) and Kirini (12) who both are coming off last start, impressive wins here at Doomben. I have a real liking for Kirini (12) who produced an eye catching performance last start over 2200 metres. She is coming back in distance, however, I do not think this will be an issue this weekend. There appears to be some speed in the race and it should bring her nicely into the race. She is to be ridden by Mark Du Plessis (All Stars).
The stable mate is Monasterio (9) and he won over 1630 metres last start - the step up in distance should be right up his alley. The gelding is to be ridden by Dwayne Dunn (South Australia).
Sheza Lily (4) has strung three wins together working through her grades. She faces her toughest assignment this weekend, however she has been well backed since the markets opened firming from $6 to $4.40 - Michael Rodd (NSW) is aboard her here.
Perilous Love (13) was unlucky last start - coming from last and making a huge sustained run out wide in the race won by Monasterio (9). The 2000 metres is more to her liking and watch out for her to by flying home late here with Robbie Fradd (All Stars) aboard.
Selections: 12-9-4-13 rough chance 5
**************************************************************************************************
Race 7
I am going to gamble on Zumberlina (4) who has come from the Chris Waller stables in Sydney to his Gold Coast stables. Her last two starts in Sydney have been at Rosehill. She won there on 4 November before getting too far back on 25 November. I am suggesting you put a pen through that run. I think Michael Cahill will be able to get her settled just off the speed and she should be competitive here.
Our Beebee (7) - well what can I say. She is a tough mare trained by Rex Lipp. I just think she needs to win one and she will string a couple more wins together. She is drawn handy here this weekend in barrier 9 and Jim Byrne retains the ride.
Previously I did suggest you watch the Tony Gollan runner Of The Day (10) first up. I did suggest whatever she did first up - she would improve second up as she has a great second up record. She is enormous odds at $12 and I think she is a great each way bet here. Jamie Kah from South Australia rides her for the first time - she is drawn nice on the rails. I like her!
Selections: 4-10-7-14 rough chance 2
****************************************************************************************************
Race 8
Crack Me Up (4) won last start with Matthew McGillivray getting his first listed winner. This Liam Birchley trained gelding has always shown some ability and gets in well at the weights this weekend. Maybe Matt can put another Listed Race in the bag!
Too Good To Refuse (7) missed the start two weeks ago. Despite what you read in the form guides the run was enormous - ridden for luck in the straight and motoring home to run a gallant fourth beaten by only 2.8 lengths by Crack Me Up (4). I think that if he can jump away on terms this weekend - with Dwayne Dunn in the saddle - he is right in this!
Zahspeed (12) went for a hit and run mission to Sydney last start after a solid win here 5 weeks ago. I think that the mile around Doomben is more to his liking. Tegan Harrison on board again here this week and I expect him to punch forward and take up a prominent position and he will be thereabouts when the judge calls a halt to the race.
San Telmo (13) always seems to run well second up. He is at silly odds of $61 in some markets. With some genuine speed in the race - be careful that Jimmy Orman and this gelding do not destroy your Quaddies and Trebles.
Selections: 4-7-12-13 rough chance 2
***************************************************************************************************
Race 9
This is an open race - take the field in your exotics!
Some of the genuine chances are drawn hopelessly wide and will need some serious luck.
I am looking for some value and have come up with Delightful Feeling (13) from the Matthew Dunn stables at Murwillumbah (go NSW). The gelding has drawn barrier 1 this weekend, is down in the weights slightly and with a four week break between runs looks well placed!
Clearly the danger is the Michael Costa trained Manaya (14) who I don’t think appreciated the tempo of the race last start. With some speed on here this weekend look for a sharp improvement.
Brooklyn Storm (4) is the stablemate to Manaya (14) and is on a quick 7 day back up - he has previously done this and raced very well.
I expect Beckham (3) to improve as well - the key engagement of Michael Rodd may see this 7 year old stallion return to the winner's circle at the juicy odds of $21.
Privlaka (5) broke through last start at the Sunshine Coast. Now he has won this preparation he may just go on with it and string a couple of wins together! Matthew McGillivray will have to be at his very best to get this runner a decent run from barrier 19.
Selections:13-14-3-4 rough chance 5
***************************************************************************************************
Early Quaddie (NSW races 2 to 5)
3,4,8,11 / 1,2,4 / 2,6,7,11 / 8,10,16,20 - cost is $192 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
4,9,12,13 / 4,7,10 / 4,7,12,13 / 3,4,13,14 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
9,12,13 / 4,10 / 4,7,12 / 3,13,14 - cost is $54 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
4,12 / 4,10 / 4,7 / 13,14 - cost is $16 to $1
Silly Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
4 / 4 / 4 / 4 - cost is $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
4,7,10 / 4,7,12,13 / 3,4,13,14 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockeys Challenge
It is an open field with the visiting jockeys in town. I have a draw this weekend with Robbie Fradd and Michael Rodd - maybe have something on them both.
Finally - as predicted last weekend - Josh Fleming from Sky Channel towelled me up well and proper in our tipping contest. He always comes back well after a spell - well done mate!
Be sure to check out our Facebook this Saturday morning for our up to date tips!
Oh and this weekend - be sure to watch the preview on Sky Channel - around 10.30am or so. I have been threatening to attack Josh with a water pistol whilst he does his tips - this week I am going after him!
More articles
|