WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 30
By Darren Winningham | Friday, December 29, 2017
DOOMBEN, SATURDAY 30 DECEMBER, 2017
Well Magic Millions is closer – the whole program this week is sponsored by the Magic Millions franchise. This brand is a wonderful brand well known and identified throughout Australia and internationally.
The work that they do at race clubs around Australia is truly magnificent – so I hope they get wonderful weather and conditions for their week of celebrations on the Gold Coast from Sunday 7 January culminating in the Magic Millions race day on Saturday 13 January at the Gold Coast racecourse.
WINNO will be on the Gold Coast for the entire week – so watch out! He will be out and about talking to people and looking for some scoops!
This weekend we are back at Doomben – the track is rated “SOFT” and the rail will be out 1 metre this weekend.
The weather is forecast to be hot, with a chance of afternoon showers.
The fields are massive and you just know things are revving up with many jockeys and trainers from the southern states making an assault on this meeting this weekend.
This may make lining up some of the form difficult, however, I will be doing my best to find you all some winners!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Well race 1 – we start with a massive field over 1110 metres – this is way too hard!
I am going for one resuming here who has been working and barrier trialling well. Rich Affair (10) is trained by Chris Meagher, looks well placed and has drawn well in barrier 8 – looks like some nice each way value as well at around the $14.
Conniving (12) is trained by Matthew Dunn at Murwillumbah and has drawn the rail here which may be an advantage on Saturday. This one loves the wet tracks so if the track deteriorates further he will be right at home. This weekend he is third up where he has performed well in previous in campaigns so I think he is one at odds as well that could be hard to beat.
Toby Edmonds has I’ve Gotta Nel (18) nominated – he has drawn a little wide and likes to go forward so I am hoping he does not get caught too wide here. He is another that will enjoy the forecast wet track.
Colinelle (2) from the Steven O’Dea yards was very good last start in the Bribie Quality at Listed level. He is way down in class on that last run, however, has gone up in the weights. O’Dea has elected to put Boris Thornton on this week and take a 3 kilogram claim that gets him well into the race.
If you want to go wider Prioritise (2) on his best form and a wet track should win this race – however, he has been disappointing since resuming from a spell. I will wait until he shows me something in a race before I hop on him.
The other one is the Stuart Kendrick trained Lipsync (15) – forget the last start where she finished tailed off when the saddle shifted and the jockey was seriously disadvantaged and the mare had to be pulled up out of the race. She is another who enjoys the sting out of the track and has drawn well in this field.
Selections: 10-12-18-2 rough chance 3 & 15
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Race 2
Pegapus (19) is the third emergency. He will need some scratchings to make the field. So I am hoping some of the wider drawn runners give up there spot in the field so he can get in.
He is another runner from the Matthew Dunn stables and since resuming from a spell has notched up two wins. Last start at Doomben he swooped late and stormed away from a field similar to this. Jim Byrne takes over the reins this weekend and I think he will get a nice run from barrier 4.
Fit For Purpose (5) has won his two starts since coming back from a spell and is on a short back up after winning last weekend at the Sunshine Coast. The inform pairing of Matthew McGillivray and Liam Birchley combine again here to attempt to win a hat trick of races with this gelding.
Dapper One (8) just cannot seem to get any luck with the barrier draw. This weekend the Les Ross trained mare has drawn 21 and will need to be ridden for luck from back in the field again by Robbie Fradd.
Saipan (1) from Ben Currie’s stables at Toowoomba carried the grandstand (62.5 kilograms) last start at Dalby and won in a very good time. He is drawn well this weekend and Damian Lane (Victorian jockey) has been engaged here. It would not surprise me to see this one salute at around $10.
Selections: 19-5-8-1 rough chance 4
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Race 3 – 2017 B.J.McLachlan Stakes
So there a few runners here are looking to boost their prize money so they will be guaranteed a start in the Magic Millions two year old race meaning there will be some nervous owners and trainers watching this race!
I am torn between two runners that came out of the Outback Barbie race a fortnight ago.
The first runner is Witherspoon (7) who I thought looked a little underdone last start in the parade ring. I assume she will strip fitter for that run and, to be fair, the run was not all that bad. Corey Brown stays aboard this weekend.
Toby Edmonds has Sizzling Ace (8) backing up as well. There has been a significant gear change for her second career start with blinkers going on for the first time. Again I thought her run was wonderful as well in the same race.
So I think these are runners that probably will derive some benefit from their respective runs.
Then there is Meryl (13) from the Lee Curtis stables who has had a mountain of work to get her ready for this first up assignment at Doomben. She is a speedy filly and drawn barrier 1 I expect Christian Reith to probably lead on her.
She will handle the sting out of the track and a couple of my Sydney spies are telling me that she is a nice type that could upset this field at the massive odds of around $25. I have reviewed her only start in the Gimcrack back in September 2017 and I tell you what that was one enormous effort and she kept on battling over the final 150 metres to be only beaten by 2.3 lengths.
Chris Waller has Orcein (4) who gets blinkers on here for the first time. His run at Rosehill three weeks ago looked solid but I am finding it hard to line it up against some of the Brisbane form. The times this Snitzel colt has run looks solid enough to suggest he will be competitive here. He will get back from barrier 2 and make a late run.
Crockett (5) is an All American colt trained by Tony McEvoy who produced his more fancied Magic Millions runner Sunlight last weekend for an impressive win at the Gold Coast. Jamie Lee Kah comes back to Doomben to partner this one to try and win the race so he may make the final Magic Millions field.
Look this is a tough race – many chances and a lot at stake for all runners!
Selections: 7-8-13-4 rough chances 3 & 5
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Race 4 – 2017 Magic Millions Falvelon Quality
There will be some serious speed in this race with Pinch River (2) and Snitzcraft (18) engaged. Pinch River (2) from the Rob Heathcote stables has some serious problems – but when he is on song he is super competitive. All credit must go to Heathcote for walking and swimming this one and making his so competitive in this class of field.
Then we have Snitzkraft from the Kelso Wood & Patricia Gesler stables who has had 14 weeks off since his debut win at Ipswich. We all know the story of how he was floated to Sydney and got sick and had to be rested before coming back to Brisbane. From all reports he is back firing and working the track down. He is a real rogue at the track and can play up in the parade ring. I expect that Patricia Gesler may strap him herself this weekend – if she doesn’t WINNO is available to walk him around the parade ring Ms Gesler!
So with the speed on I am just thinking that we may see something from behind motor home late and there may be a number of runners spread across the track in the final 50 metres.
Havasay (8) from the Liam Birchley stables was dynamic when resuming behind Pinch River and meets him 1.5 kilograms better for the 0.7 length defeat. He does have a great second up record with 3 starts for 1 win and 2 seconds and he does have the services of Matthew McGillivray again for this run. Matty is riding in great form at the moment and just seems to be placing his horses well and giving them every chance.
In saying that his manager Mitchell Speers finally got on his knee (I am wondering how he got back up) and proposed to the mighty mare Claire Farrow on X-mas Eve. Congratulations to both Mitchell and Claire from HRO and its readers! I was only teasing Claire last weekend at the Gold Coast that her hand still didn’t have a ring on it … so this weekend I will be on the search for an exclusive look at the ring!
Khalama (9) has drawn terribly in barrier 17, however, this may be a blessing in disguise as I expect her to settle and be one of these runners flashing home late. Jim Byrne will have to be at his brilliant best to win the race. Last start she was held up at the home turn and the really didn’t get a clear crack at them in the straight. This weekend Tony Gollan has elected to put winkers on the mare for the first time. This may make a difference.
Badajoz (1) from the Godolphin team in Sydney is trained by James Cummings and is always very competitive first up. He has drawn badly as well in barrier 16, however, he does like to make a long sustained run and I think he will be suited by the tempo. Damian Lane has taken the ride here and in a recent barrier trial at Warwick Farm this Commands gelding was not over extended so watch out for the Godolphin royal blue silk colours at Doomben this weekend!
Selections: 8-1-9-2 rough chances 16 & 18
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Race 5 Magic Millions Shoot Out Quality
An Open Quality over 2200 metres.
A few of these met a fortnight ago and to be honest they always seem to turn up a different result each week.
Long Time Ago (5), from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott team, led and tired badly last start – I am not sure what to make of that run.
Singing (2) was racing on the speed and just put the opposition to the sword three weeks ago over 2000 metres and was dominant in that performance.
My Giuliano (4) has managed to put three wins together and has been very solid. He loves wet tracks and despite being up in grade this weekend he has had four weeks between runs and he seems to thrive on this type of spacing between runs.
Night’s Watch (9) is the favourite for the race. He is from the Darren Weir stables at Warrnambool. The gelding thrives on wet tracks so he gets conditions to suit this weekend. Stable jockey Damian Lane throws the leg over this Weir runner for the first time as well.
Look I am not all that taken by the runner – but you must always respect the Weir stable when they bring one to Queensland especially on the road to the grand finale at the Magic Millions. I will be taking a look at this Redwood gelding this weekend. He has never run over the 2200 metres either – so let’s see how he goes this with a view to getting into Magic Millions day, if he can get the distance!
Emphasis (3) - I really am not a fan of this one in the wet so I will leave him out this weekend. Plus I like him over 2000 metres and no longer.
Helen Page seems to have got Rudy (1) back to form. If the track is in the heavy range he comes right into the race as he grows webbed feet when it is wet but I do not think the track will be that bad with the warm weather forecast over the coming days. Last start he was gallant in defeat when beaten by Emphasis (3) – he does love the longer 2200 metres as well. Maybe that tough run last start will have him ready for this assignment this weekend.
The Rumour File (12) really will be looking for a dry track; however, he will be competitive in this field despite being up in class.
Selections: 4-9-2-1 rough chance 5 & 12
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Race 6 Magic Millions The Buffering
What a champion the great BUFFERING was, trained by Rob Heathcote and mostly ridden by Damian Browne. I got the chance to meet the great sprinter one afternoon at the Heathcote stables and grabbed some photos with him – such a special and wonderful memory for me!
Last start WINNO declared Most Important (1) when he came out and won the Lough Neagh over this course and distance. Jim Byrne rode the gelding to perfection on a day where the Gollan stable dominated the program with four winners! If the track is slow or better I cannot see any reason why he will not repeat the dose this weekend. The weight scaling of this race really does help him here.
Care to Think (13), part owned by Damien Quinn and Blair Gibson and a cast of others, was astonishing first up at Doomben over 1200 metres. The So You Think gelding from Matthew Dunn stables at Murwillumbah has never won second up – but each time there have been excuses. The way he won two weeks ago here you would expect him to be very competitive again this weekend. So Gibbo and Quinny I hope to see you boys at the races. It is time to face the music and go 60 seconds with WINNO!
Torgensen (5) was solid in his efforts when beaten by Most Important (1) here last start. I really cannot see him turning the tables on him this week but I think he will be thereabouts when the judge calls an end to the race.
The run of the race in the race won by Care to Think (13) was Trubia (8). The Mick Lakey trained gelding just had an interrupted run all the way down the straight and finally, when he got clear spaces, he motored home to be beaten by 2.5 lengths. This Lakey runner seems to have come back better than ever and has been smashed in the early betting firming from $25 to $13. I really think the extra distance will be right up his alley.
I Thought So (11) was in Brisbane over the Winter Carnival and was a solid performer running well in the Gold Coast Guineas in May and the Fred Best Classic at Eagle Farm. This David Pfieffer gelding will handle the sting out of the ground. In fact I think he loves it rather than the firm tracks. He should be around fifth or so when they settle and I expect Corey Brown not to let them get too far away on the turn.
Selections: 1-13-8-11 rough chance 5
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Race 7 Magic Millions Vo Rogue Plate
This race is doing my head in – maybe just take the field in your Quaddie and Trebles!
I am going to start with Femme Fireball (14) who in the last two starts has been scintillating in her two wins. This filly, trained by Rob Heathcote, will handle all track conditions and last weekend did something at the Gold Coast that I have not seen for a longwhen she settled back in the field, was steadied by Ronnie Stewart and then just peeled around them wide and smashed them – going away at the end to win untouched.
I remember seeing her win at Doomben the start before as well when she won impressively on a soft track and hearing Luke Nolen report to Rob Heathcote that he “may have a special filly”. The distance this week will be right up her alley and there has been some solid support for her firming from $26 to $16 since the markets have opened.
I also have a healthy respect for Curdled (7) trained by Peter Robl who won the Winning Edge Stakes (Listed) over this course and distance back in June. In some markets she is listed at $21 and I think that is just a ridiculous price. So I will be having something on him here! I thought his run at Rosehill last start was nice – he was only just beaten and since then Robl has kept him ticking over with a solid barrier trial at Hawkesbury over 1000 metres where he won that impressively.
Then you have the three that met last start in the Gold Edition. Whypeeo (4) won that race, after leading and being tenacious in the straight, to hold off Pierata (5) with Shogun Sun (6) flashing home late. Of the three of them I think that Shogun Sun (6) will be better suited with the longer distance, however he has drawn terribly in barrier 15.
Pierata (5) has drawn wide as well in barrier 13 this weekend – and I have exclusive mail that part owner and great bloke Tony Bonello is coming to Doomben. Now normally I would threaten to put someone on my shoulders if they win, but big Tony will destroy me!
You cannot overlook Whypeeo (4) as well who did all the work in front last start and managed to hold the opposition at bay. His previous form would suggest that once he wins he normally strings a few wins together.
So there you have it. I think I have covered the runners who I think will go okay here. I have left Capital Gain (1) from the Paul Butterworth stables out of my top four. I think I want to see him show me something.
Selections: 7-14-6-5 rough chances 1 & 4
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Race 8 Magic Millions Bernborough Handicap
There is some serious form to be done here.
Will the Gai Waterhouse trained Cabeza de Vaca (3) go like the clappers at the start like it did in the Villiers? If so will anything else be able to catch it? Is there something else in the race prepared to take it on?
Those questions and more will be answered around 4.44pm on Saturday!
I think that if Cabeza de Vaca (3) gets left alone in front he will be too hard to run down.
The Rob Heathcote trained Hopfgarten (2) or “Hoffy” is well weighted this weekend and could be the one to knock off the early favourite. He will sit off the pace but will finish strong.
Ben Currie has engaged Jamie Lee Kah again to ride Cantbuybetter (5) after she rode the Casino Prince gelding to a great win in the Brisbane Handicap (Listed) last start three weeks ago. She was very patient and timed her run to a perfection to beat the opposition in that race. With the speed on as well this runner will be suited.
Then you have Zahspeed (11) right down the bottom of the field. This runner normally loves to lead as well. I really cannot see Jimmy Orman taking on the likes of Cabeza de Vaca (3) as it may be suicide for both of them – but, he may race generously and be the one to sit off the leader and finish strong at the end of the race.
Selections: 3-5-2-11 rough chance 1
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Race 9 Magic Millions Nudgee Stakes
I like the Godolphin trained and lightly raced mare Ghisoni (1) to finish off the day.
Last start at Geelong she ran a wonderful race – but just got back too far and was set an impossible task to reel in the leaders. She is a quality mare, however, she does need some luck in her races.
The two locals are well placed as well.
Pepperano (9) led first up and was run down late by Care to Think (engaged in race 6). I think last start she really was left out in front due to the wide barrier and this week from barrier 1 she will not have to lead this lot and should be ridden off the speed . She seems to run well enough second up without a win to her record.
All Over Bosanova (8) will strip fitter for the first up defeat here over the 1050 metres. She was just getting warmed up over that short distance and back up to 1200metres this week she looks well placed by Mel Eggleston. Luke “Sausage” Rolls retains the ride – he has won four times on the mare out of her five career wins. I am looking forward to her bouncing back to some of that strong form we saw over the Winter Carnival.
The runner that I have a great opinion of is Invincibella (11) who after a solid Brisbane Winter Carnival resumed with some nice wins in Sydney and then went and contested some higher-grade races over the Melbourne Spring Carnival. She raced well but just didn’t seem to fire. She has had a six week freshen up and I think that she is not meeting some of the quality mares that she took on in Melbourne here.
Sometimes horses thrive as well when they come to Queensland and my Gold Coast spies tell me she has done well since arriving at the Waller stables there. She has drawn handy and she does love the sting out of the ground – so she has a few things in her favour this weekend.
If you are looking for a roughie - just in case you have lost your trousers coming to the last race – may I suggest Suspenders (16) who loves wet tracks and can pop up now and ten. Again, she will be a large price and does race well fresh and second up.
Selections: 1-8-11-9 rough chances 2 & 16
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Jockey Challenge
This could be a real lottery this weekend with no real standout. I think that Damian Lane has some nice rides and could dominate if his mounts get any luck. Then you have the Queensland pair of Jim Byrne and Matthew McGillivray who have been riding well and have some solid chances. Robbie Fradd is an outside chance.
May I suggest that review the prices and the scratchings on Saturday and see what you one you think is value!
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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,5,8,19 / 4,7,8,13 / 1,2,8,9 /1,2,4,9 - cost is $256 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
5,19 / 7,8 / 1,8 / 4,9 - cost is $16 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,8,11,13 / 4,5,6,7.14 / 2,3,5,11 / 1,8,9,11 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,13 / 5,6,7 / 3,5 / 1,8,11 - cost is $36 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1 / 6,7 / 2,3,5 / 1,8 - cost is $12 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
4,5,6,7.14 / 2,3,5,11 / 1,8,9,11 - cost is $80 to $1
Good luck and good punting!
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