WINNO'S WINNERS: SUNSHINE COAST, JANUARY 27
By Darren Winningham | Friday, January 26, 2018
SUNSHINE COAST SATURDAY 27 JANUARY 2018
A marathon ten race program at the Sunshine Coast featuring the Sunshine Coast Cup.
The track is rated as “GOOD” and the rail is in the true position.
Looks like a very open program – these meetings can turn up some long-priced winners and sometimes local horses or horses who have performed well in the past here have a distinct advantage.
Well let’s get straight into it.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The opening race over 2400 metres.
This is a tough race. I am looking for some value and going to tip The Rumour File (6) as I think the big open Sunshine Coast track will mean that jockey Jim Byrne can get him balanced and come late wide down the outside.
Morendi (4) has been knocking on the door and again I think that he will appreciate the larger track this weekend.
The favourite is Outraged (2) who has a win here at the track – but normally runs better up to 2200 metres and not 2400 metres.
Tumultuous (1) won the Magic Millions Trophy at massive odds of $26 in the final bound. Again, the way this Waller runner flashed home late under the urgings of Brenton Advulla it seems that he will appreciate the longer distance.
Selections: 6-4-2-1
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Race 2
Not a fan of the race – most of these are untried at the mile.
Have gone for some value at around $17 – with Bunker Buster – maybe I am just biased here as I do own a cute beagle named “Buster”. On the flip side this gelding is trained by Chris Waller and I think looking at his last run he is really looking for a longer distance – this could be my value runner for the day – GO BUSTER!
Cruze (2) has come back from a spell and just has been unlucky. He does have a win at the track but never raced over the mile.
The Steven O’Dea runner Francisca (5) last start settled off the speed and made a long-sustained run home to finish third. I think that the mile may be right up this filly’s alley this weekend.
Selections: 3-5-2-6
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Race 3
A big fan of the David Vandyke runner here Savwell (6) who is looking for a hat trick of wins this weekend at his home track. I think we may see this one in the winner’s stall at around the $6 mark with Damian Browne in the saddle.
Matthew Dunn trains Realing (5) who likes the mile. Last start at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions day he was back to 1300 metres and I think that track and distance did not suit this runner. Look for a marked improvement here this weekend.
The Robert Heathcote trained Kubis (11) loves this track and distance – has drawn well and will probably lead this lot – can jockey Ronnie Stewart get some cheap sectionals in front and make it difficult for them to run him down late?
Selections: 6-5-11-13
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Race 4
This is the two-year-old race for the program. Tough race people!
I think the locally trained Pennino (5), who won on debut here over 1200 metres and won easily with a 5-length margin, may be hard to beat at her home track. Again, the Darryl Hansen trained filly will be ridden by Tiffani Brooker.
John Zielke has been quiet of late, however, the stable has Hopes Eternal back here after 4 weeks off since a solid run when he ran second to Meryl in the BJMcLachlan (Group 3) at Doomben last start. Luke Dittman keeps his association with the Jet Spur gelding and has ridden him to 2 wins.
As for the rest take your pick!
Selections: 5-1-7-2
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Race 5
Class 6 race over the 1000 metres here.
I am hoping for another Darryl Hansen winner with Yarrapower (14) who has drawn the rails and has Jeff Lloyd aboard. He has a great record at his home track. Last start he was terrible in the Magic Millions Country Cup. However, forget that run as he drew barrier 16 and just never had any luck in the running. I am hoping for a massive improvement here in this race.
Malvern Estate (9) trained by Desleigh Forster has won 4 starts and has 1 second from 5 starts here at the Sunshine Coast – so it is fair to say he appreciates this track! He has won his last two starts here and is looking for a hat trick this weekend. Michael Cahill stays aboard – this one is a serious chance.
Colinelle (1) and Just Orm (3) round out my selections – both back in grade and both have been in good form and could pop up here as well.
An open race guys – bet carefully!
Selections: 14-9-1-3
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Race 6
I am on Toby Edmonds and Winter Bride (4) to knock off the two favoured runners here. She has had an eight week break between runs and I think that she will race better on this large track.
Barry Lockwood has a nice Time Thief filly here who has saluted at both her career starts – Showus Ya Diamonds (7) and Ric McMahon has partnered her in both starts. She is going to tough to beat but I went for some value in the race.
Basara (5) is another nice type from the Tony Sears yards who also has won 2 from 3 career starts and will be right in this race as well.
Selections: 4-7-5-8
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Race 7
Looks like we will head to the bottom of the page to find the chances in this race.
Rob Heathcote trains Nilette (13) who ran a solid second to her stable mate Don’t Deny Us at the Gold Coast last start. That run was great, and it looks like the opposition are not to hard to beat here this weekend.
The Steve Tregea Prioritise (4) likes this track, however, just seems to be out of form of late. This weekend he drops back in grade and maybe this will help with his chances.
Bold Shot (7) is another one that can just pop up at odds every now and then – this weekend he is fourth up and he seems to be improving each run – something each way here.
Selections: 13-4-7-15
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Race 8
I am punting on Bold Gypsy (9) returning from a 21-week spell and racing well here with a couple of trials under her belt. She has won twice for three starts first up and does like this track. Track specialist rider Luke Tarrant is aboard, and I think this one represents great each way value at $26.
Clearly, I’ve Got Nel (10) from the strong Gold Coast stables of Edmonds Racing is the hardest to get beat in the race. His last start leading effort at the Gold Coast was very strong and was only run down in the shadow of the post. He has had two starts here at the Sunshine Coast for 2 wins.
Jim Byrne is aboard Prue’s Angel who was in the same race as I’ve Got Nel (10) last start. She was drawn hopelessly in barrier 16 – was taken back, got out of her ground and then somehow Jim Byrne managed to weave a passage in the straight and only get beaten by 2.1 lengths and finish fifth.
Mehmeto (14) pops back in distance from a mile last start to 1200 metres here. He has had 5 weeks between runs and I think will be better suited over the shorter distance.
Selections: 9-10-13-14 rough chance 5
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Race 9
The feature race of the day! The 2018 Coastline BMW Sunshine Coast Cup.
I am going to start with Mighty Like (9) who resumed for a new stable – Kelly Schweida - and was nothing short of sensational when flying down the outside at the Gold Coast three weeks ago. He could really enjoy this large track at the Sunshine Coast and I think will be in the finish.
The one I like is the Mick Lakey trained Trubia (11). I think that this Show A Heart gelding has just had no luck since resuming. Each time carrying massive weights and storming home despite checkered runs in the straight. A string of placings since resuming – I am hoping that Luke Dittman can find the fast track home this weekend – an uninterrupted run in the straight should see him win this race. He has drawn wide in barrier 18 but he can get back and storm home. His record here is exemplary with two starts for two wins at the track.
The other runner I give a massive chance to is the locally trained Spur Le Jouer (18) who has won all 8 career wins here at the track. First up he was great when the Jimmy Orman steadied him and set sale for the opposition over 1200 metres and he rounded them up easily. Last start he was set a tough task at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions day. Forget that run and go on the solid form here. He loves the 1400 metres as well and I reckon that Stuart Kendrick will have him primed for a great performance here. At $51 I will be having something on him!
The pre-post favourite is Dreams Aplenty (10)– trained by John Zielke and to be ridden by Jag Guthmann-Chester. This gelding was impressive last start when resuming winning easily at Ipswich. He is proven here at the track, loves 1400 metres. I hope that JAG can “jag” a feature win here on this gelding.
Most Important (1) has been in wonderful form and could show up despite the large weight.
There is another rough chance here at massive odds as well at $61 – In His Stride (17). This Rex Lipp gelding just has not had any luck. I always have had an opinion that he like big, large, open tracks, so he can settle towards the rear of the field and then charge home late – he gets that chance here this weekend.
Irish Constabulary (8) is fourth up here on his home track. The stable must be confident of a massive improvement as he has been sensationally backed from $17 to $9 in most early markets. Michael “Muppy” Hellyer is aboard this weekend and he knows this 9-year-old gelding well. Good luck “Muppy”!
This could be a rough result for punters this race – maybe if you are winning take the field in your Quaddie and Treble!
Selections: 11-9-18-10 rough chances 1, 8 and 17
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Race 10
Okay we made it – the last race on the program!
Hopefully we have made some money and do not get a ten count from the TAB and be down and out!
What a way to finish the day as well – a No Metro Win over 1400 metres – aghhhhh!
Let’s go for an Edmonds Racing and Jeff Lloyd win to the last race with Clockwork Orange (6) who won last start midweek at Doomben when favourite and has won a race here previously.
If you are looking for something to beat this runner, then I would suggest you consider the follow couple of horses.
Let’s start with Dapper One (10) who last week led at Doomben – this is out of character – and still managed to fight on and be beaten just over 2 lengths. I think that if Ronnie Stewart is not so aggressive this week and he settles mid field he may just pop up at odds.
The other runner I like is the Trevor Miller trained, Adam Sewell ridden Rothabye (13) who was well backed first up here and got the chocolates. He then went to the Gold Coast on Magic Millions day and acquitted himself well in the MM Country Cup when just beaten by 3.5 lengths. That form has him in good stead here.
Really Reilly (2) like the track with five wins here and last start won here over the same distance of this race. I think that he is a rough chance here.
Selections: 6-13-10-2 rough chances 11 & 19
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Jockey Challenge
Jeff Lloyd looks the likely winner with a solid book of rides – but do not underestimate Michael Cahill.
Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW only)
5,6,11 / 1,5,7 / 1,9,14 / 4,5,7 - cost is $81 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW only)
5,6 / 1,5 / 9,14 / 4,7 - cost is $16 to $1
Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
4,7,13 / 9,10,13 / 9,10,11,18 / 6,10,13 - cost is $108 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
4,13 / 10,13 / 9,11,18 / 6,13 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
9,10,13 / 9,10,11,18 / 6,10,13 - cost is $36 to $1
Good luck and good punting!
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