WINNO'S WINNERS - DOOMBEN, FEBRUARY 17
By Darren Winningham | Friday, February 16, 2018
DOOMBEN RACES SATURDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2018
Doomben this week!
A big nine race program.
This weekend they are forecasting a very hot weekend – I have done my selections on a Good track hoping that the track will not be rain affected.
The weather is forecast to be afternoon of severe thunder storms in South East Queensland each day in the lead up to the meeting. Hopefully they are just flash storms that do not dump a lot of rain on the course.
The track is rated “SOFT” (Thursday afternoon) and the rail will be out 5.0 metres the entire course this weekend. I think we will see a “GOOD” track come Saturday at some stage and all horses should be treated well. With afternoon storms forecast again for Saturday afternoon let’s hope we can get through the program this week!
I see Matthew McGillivray is back this weekend – welcome back mate!
Winno should be trackside as well this weekend after a short spell – I am looking forward to catching up with you all!
Well here goes nothing!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
A strong two-year old race to start the day.
Rob Heathcote and Chris Munce have some nice runners in the race.
I did tip Pinch Memory (1) last time and he got the job done for us.
This week I am going for the stable mate Only Wanna Sing (3) first up off a solid barrier trial two weeks ago and Damian Browne in the saddle. The Heathcote/Browne combination was lethal 12 months ago – but they have had a run of bad luck recently – maybe this will be the turn stone for this great team!
The two Munce runners look nice types as well. Global Choice (6) is a nice Choisir filly who won a recent barrier trial very well and looked very forward and well educated.
The other runner is a Spirit of Boom gelding – Boomsara (4) – again the barrier trial was solid, and the Spirit of Boom progeny have taken the 2017/18 season by storm – will this be another one that can perform well on debut?
I have noticed a massive go for one here – Red Stina (9) from the Rex Lipp stable at Toowoomba that has been smashed in the betting firming from $51 to $10 since the markets have opened. I see that Skye Bogenhuber is coming to town as well to ride this first starter for Rex – maybe where there is smoke – there may be fire!
Selections: 3-6-4-1 rough chance 8
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Race 2
Not a huge fan of this race.
I suppose it all depends if the Lindsay Gough runner Secret Mo (5) takes its place in the field.
I like Yarrapower (6) this weekend again. I was all over it last start at the Sunshine Coast and I thought the run was okay for this class of race here this weekend.
The Ben Currie runner Now You See (12) is back in class too. There is a jockey change this weekend with Robbie Fradd taking over from apprentice Michael Murphy. I think with some speed in the race this weekend she will not have to lead, and I think they may just ride her in behind the speed and unleash her late.
Prue’s Angel (11) has been racing consistently without luck – this Tony Gollan runner is due for a change of luck.
Selections: 6-12-11-5
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Race 3
A small but lethal field here.
I like the Gollan Racing runner first up here – She’s Our Star (3) who resumes here after a solid winter Carnival. She had a nice hit out in a recent trial a fortnight ago and I think she would have taken some improvement from that.
The Liam Birchley Sista Act (1) led all the way and dominated last start at the Sunshine Coast – she goes up in weight and has drawn wide in barrier 11. Somehow, I don’t think she will get it all her own way in front this weekend.
Toby Edmonds trains Alleviator (5) who had a number of trials before debuting at the Gold Coast for an impressive win. He steps up to weekend class for his second up run – can he translate that win to city grade on a Saturday?
Chris Munce is well represented again with Skate To Paris (4) – this filly resumes from a 37 week spell. The barrier trial was nice – maybe she could be the knock out chance at some nice odds - $6.
Selections: 3-1-5-4
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Race 4
This race is between two runners – Brazen Moss (3) and Torgersen (1) – a good quinella.
I have gone for the Gollan team again with Brazen Moss – just if the track is a little wet and down in the weights to beat the odds on topweight favourite Torgersen (1).
Selections: 3-1-4-6
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Race 5
This is one of these tough Class 3 races that keep appearing each week.
These races are like trying to win Lotto – so bet cautiously.
I am going for a runner who just didn’t handle the “heavy” conditions last start – Rancho Montoya (13). If this Stuart Kendrick colt can get a slow or better track look for a massive improvement!
Liam Birchley also has two runners that must be considered here – Top Ravine (7) and Arazona (8). Top Ravine (7) is dropping back from a Class 6 race to this grade and has a consistent second up record. Arazona (8) won last start at Ipswich and looks to consolidate that form in city Saturday grade.
Rhyming (11) is a consistent enigma of mine – I just cannot seem to catch her. If she turns up she will slay this field but then again, she may struggle. She has to be included on her previous solid form and consistent performances over the mile.
Selections: 13-7-8-11
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Race 6
This is the first leg of the Quaddie – and the race has been decimated pre-post by many early scratchings.
Well I am hoping that this is a sign – Winno is making an appearance at Doomben after a short spell and it looks like Patricia Gesler will be there as well!
We all know how she likes to dress up and look stunning and how Winno loves to grab some pictures of her – especially when she and Kelso Wood train a winner together! So, I am tipping Criquette (14) at the nice odds of $5. This mare won well last start at the Gold Coast eight weeks ago. She ran a very nice trial a fortnight ago and I think if Adam Sewell had let her go she would have won the trial. Nonetheless, she ran a nice second.
Steven O’Dea has Colinelle (3) stepping up to 1200 metres for the first time this preparation. I really think that he races better over the 1200 metres, so I am hoping to see a marked improvement.
Publishing Power (6) is the early favourite for the race, trained by Ben Currie. The gelding has not cracked it for a win at Doomben yet so I am gambling that this will be the case again this weekend.
Toby Edmonds trained I’ve Gotta Nel (17) seems to thrive when he gets down in the weights and can take up the running and dominate in front when unchallenged. I think he gets the perfect conditions this weekend drawing the rails in barrier 1 with Jeff Lloyd aboard – at some nice odds as well (in some places as much as $10). He could get things his way in front.
Selections: 14-17-3-6
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Race 7
Kirini (5) has a tongue tie on this time after a disappointing run last start where she just didn’t seem to fire. I think with the gear change this weekend and regular strapper Melanie Monroe in her corner I am putting my hard earned on her to show a marked improvement this weekend!
Chris Waller has two other runners in the race that both have a great chance – Houdini The Great (6) and Shield Wall (7). He could manage a unique trifecta on a Saturday at Doomben for the first time.
I think you can overlook the last start run of the Matthew Dunn trained Contralto (12) who I think was disadvantaged by the “heavy” track – the mare could show up this week on a dry track.
Maybe Even You (13) is another Ben Currie runner who is stepping up to the 2030 metres for the first time. I am not too certain whether she will get the distance, but her style of racing would suggest that she will be competitive. Nathan Day is back in Brisbane on a Saturday to take the ride!
Selections: 3-6-12-11 rough chances 7 & 14
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Race 8
The Open Sprint is the feature race this weekend – and it is the second leg of the Treble.
Look it is no secret I am a huge fan of the North Queensland visitor Tyzone (7) who has raced here previously successfully. He has an impressive record with 16 starts and 11 wins and does have a very good second up record. I hope bookmaker Con Searle is back from his holiday chasing sheep around the paddock in New Zealand, so I can claim him for some of the $9 that is on offer around the place!
Malvern Estate (14) from the Desleigh Forster yards has been in sensational form winning his last three starts and looks well placed here this weekend to cause an upset. The last start at the Sunshine Coast was dominant. I am just concerned that this is the first time he is seeking a win at 1200 metres.
Raido (12) from Gollan Racing has had 6 weeks off since a nice run at the Gold Coast – he does seem to be very competitive when his races are spaced apart. This may suit him here.
The Sydney trained Supreme Effort (1) comes back in class for this run and to be honest could just destroy this field. However, I think there is enough local talent here this weekend to see a local victory.
It is not often you will see Winno tipping a QLDer over a NSW representative (get that up you Josh Fleming).
Selections: 7-14-12-1
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Race 9
Well hopefully we have some money in the wallet by the time the last comes around – and hopefully the rain and afternoon storms stay away so we can get the race over and then get home safely!
Chris Waller has slipped Fortensky (3) up to his Gold Coast stables after some solid performances in Sydney and a win last start at Canterbury. There must be some stable confidence as he has been well backed from $5 to $3.70 since the markets have opened.
Jadentom (14) won here last weekend and is on a quick back up. I think the Lindsay Hatch trained mare may just be able to put a hat trick of wins on the board.
Clockwork Orange (13) is also looking for three wins in a row. This Edmonds Racing runner just seems to go from strength to strength and should be prominent in the running this weekend. The three weeks between runs may also be of some benefit as well.
My favourite Oink (11) is going around. I think the last time I sledged Mr Grant Bell (part owner) I got myself in trouble – so I won’t say much this week other than I hope Oink runs well and then Grant make his way to the kitchen and makes a nice roast and veges for his lovely wife Keiley Bell – oh yes Grant – do not forget the gravy!
David Vandyke has Let’s Party Marty in the race – watch out for this one as he may just rain on the fancied runners party in the last and blow them all out at around the $9 mark. II think this one has some serious ability and down in the weights could be a real knock out chance!
Selections: 14-13-11-3 rough chances 7 & 15
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like a battle royal between Jim Bryne and Jeff Lloyd. I am tipping a draw if they retain all of their rides!
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
6,11,12 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3 / 7,8,11,13 - cost is $144 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,6,14,17 / 3,6,12 / 7,12,14 / 3,11,13,14,15 - cost is $180 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
14,17 / 3,6 / 7,14 / 3,13,14 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
14 / 3 / 7,12 / 13,14,15 - cost is $6 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
3,6,12 / 7,12,14 /3,11,13,14,15 - cost is $45 to $1
Doomben Best bets
R1 - Only Wanna Sing
R2 - Yarrapower
R3 - She's Our Star
R4 - Brazen Moss
R7 - Kirini
R8 - Tyzone
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Oh yes, this weekend the battle of NSW (WINNO) versus QLD (FLEMO) will continue. So be sure to check out our Facebook profiles for our up to date tips and thoughts on Saturday morning. I think last weekend it was a tight battle and he may have just pipped me – but I will be back firing on all cylinders this week!
Good luck and good punting
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