WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, FEBRUARY 24
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, February 22, 2018
Doomben this week!
The track is was rated “GOOD” earlier this week. However, a large amount of rainfall is forecast over Thursday, Friday and Saturday and it would appear that if the Bureau of Meteorology get a forecast finally right we will probably be racing on a “SOFT” or “HEAVY” surface.
The rail will be out 7.0 metres the entire course this weekend.
I think with the uncertainty of the weather forecast and the chances of a “top up” of rain on the track – I may be brief this week with my selections.
I will be doing the assessment for a slow to heavy surface – not a bottomless bog!
NB: As this form assessment was made a couple of days prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
A distance race to start the day and it is for three-year old’s and none of them have won over the distance.
Limited wet weather form as well – so it is a no bet race for me ..
I will be enjoying my lunch whilst watching them go around.
The two that have some wet weather form are Beach Drum (5) to be ridden by Ruby Ride (her 3-kilogram claim may assist this runner if the track is wet) and Thought Process (6). The latter, from the John Zielke yards was solid last start at the Gold Coast on a heavy track. Despite this runner being a maiden his last few runs suggest that this trip will suit him.
Michael Costa trains Epic Rant (2) who was heavily supported last start a fortnight ago and got the chocolates – a progressive type, and if the track is not too rain affected should be hard to toss again.
Selections: 5-6-2-3
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Race 2
Well the Doomben course tractor and the barrier attendants won’t have to work too hard here. This race is another race over 2040 metres – and this time it is Benchmark 90.
I like the Chris Munce runner First Crush (6) to bounce back here this weekend as he does like wet surfaces.
Again, Michael Costa has a nice chance here with Stanley (8) who loves the wet tracks. I think these two are nice value if you are scouting wide. With any luck Costa could get a unique race to race double!
The Chris Waller stables on the Gold Coast have three runners engaged here.
Estikhraaj (3) to be ridden by Jeff Lloyd has a placing on a heavy track. Robbie Fradd is aboard one of the other Waller runners – Exoteric (4) - who despite the no wet form data ran a super race here a fortnight ago on a “heavy” track. That run got my attention. I think that this gelding is well placed this weekend.
Selections: 6-8-4-3
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Race 3
The two-year old’s step out here over 1350 metres.
Plumaro (2) was a raging hot favourite last start and went down. Again this weekend the Kevin Kemp trained filly is short – I would not be entertaining the short odds on any rain affected track!
The two that I like both come out of the Gold Coast three weeks ago when they met and raced on a heavy track over 1300metres. They are the Harold Norman trained Mystic Mist (7) and the Toby Edmonds trained Nooks and Crannies (8).
Edmonds has made a gear change for this assignment for the filly with blinkers going on for the first time – this I think could see the reversal of the result of the race at the Gold Coast when she led the entire way and was run down late by Mystic Mist (7).
Miss Sara (6) from the Les Ross stables has some nice form on heavy tracks and has been well backed from $25 to $17 in the markets since they have opened – one to watch here!
Selections: 8-7-2-6
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Race 4
Large open field – bet carefully.
I have headed down to the bottom of the field.
Black Mink (12) from the Liam Birchley stables won easily first up at the Sunshine Coast on a heavy track. This weekend she has drawn lovely in barrier 1 and has the services of apprentice Michael Murphy – his claim will be handy. I just hope this week he can find his own jockey pants to wear this weekend after winning in injured jockey Jimmy Orman’s pants last weekend.
To be fair Murphy has been notching up consistent winners on a Saturday in town over recent months and it is great to see him given opportunities to ride on a weekend in the city.
Mediterranean (13) is first up for 35 weeks for Matthew Dunn. This Smart Missile gelding loves a wet track and I think will be trained to the minute in this first up assignment.
Alluvion (10), trained in Sydney by Scott Singleton, has made the trip north to represent NSW. This mare usually races well fresh and does like a soft surface. The barrier trial at Warwick Farm a fortnight ago looked very impressive and she has drawn nice in barrier 4. Paul Hammersley takes the mount!
Selections: 12-10-13-1
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Race 5
Matthew Dunn trains the topweight Snitz (1) who was superb first up winning nicely. This weekend he meets a similar field and whilst he has never won second up has always put in some solid performances – he is a genuine contender here again.
Dream Kisses (2) from the Steven O’Dea stables probably has the best wet weather track form in the race. I am gambling that the surface will be wet, and she will roll the favourite. Another nice mount for Hammersley.
I was hung up on Umberto (6) last start declaring it! I thought that whilst he seemed to get out of his ground he really had no luck in the early stages of the race. When Jim Byrne managed to get him balanced he motored home solidly and was beaten under a length by Snitz (1). I think that he will be better over the 1350 metres of the race this weekend. He has previously won 2 races over this distance. Look for an improved performance.
Selections: 2-1-6-5
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Race 6
Opening leg of the Quaddie – this is tough!
Steamin’ (6) has some nice form on wet surfaces. A Matthew Dunn runner again – he could have a big day if the track favours his runners. Steamin' has two wins over the mile as well and has the services of Jeff Lloyd.
Vaulting Ambition (6) won well here last start. He has good wet form as well. Chris Anderson seems to be having a nice run with his runners now – maybe he can get another winner! Brad Stewart takes the ride again this weekend. He is in solid form as well.
The two runners that finished behind Vaulting Ambition (6) last start round out my selections – Rosie Posie (10) and Show ‘Em (11).
There is a wet tracker here that if the track is heavy you must include or even put on top in your selections. That horse is Benfica Princess (13). She is to be ridden by Jag Guthmann-Chester who has had a win and a placing on her previously. The claim will be vital if the track is heavy!
Selections: 6-4-11-10 rough chance 13
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Race 7
Wow .. too hard.
Short and brief here – Karakabeel (3) races well fresh. Lani Fancourt aboard. Get him home Lani!
The only other one I have an interest in is Honey Holt (16) who is drawn handy and I think she has a nice wet weather record. Forget the last start run at Ipswich. She likes to run home, but the rail being out so far this weekend may pose a problem.
Not a race I can get keen on!
Selections: 3-16-5-6
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Race 8
The BLOKES DAY Out race!
Let’s hope I can find the winner and we are still racing come race 8!
Capetown Hussey (6) second up on a wet track ticks some boxes for me. She also loves the mile and Brad Stewart won 3 times on her last preparation.
Fortensky (4) came from an impossible position last week to win the last with Robbie Fradd throwing everything at him to sneak him home in the final bound. Fradd copped a suspension as well for some crowding on the line – so is probably having a holiday after Saturday. The Waller runner has some solid form on soft tracks.
Plucky Girl (7) loves to roll along in front and dominate the tempo and ,with Jeff Lloyd in the saddle and the rail out so far, she may just dominate the field and get away with some soft sectionals and run them into the ground.
I am not letting the Helen Page runner Zin Zan Eddie (13) get under my guard. This 8-year-old gelding is third up for her this weekend and he has won third up previously and some of his best wins have been on heavy tracks. Keep your eye on this one at some nice odds at around $21.
Selections: 6-4-7-13 rough chance 2
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Race 9
Okay – we must hope the 5th and 6th emergency get runs. I like them!
Matthew Dunn has Ready For Danger (21) engaged and he draws barrier 2 and comes off a lovely trial three weeks ago at the Gold Coast.
The other runner is another NSW trained runner Tawfiq Boy (20) trained at Newcastle by Kris Lees. Again nicely drawn in barrier 4.
Some of the other fancied runners are drawn wide and will need some luck – but then again, we have to hope that there are a few scratchings so these two get a run!
If they don’t get in the field, I like Well Sighted (2), drawn the rails, who has performed well on wet tracks.
Some other chances are Tversky (5) and Amenzel (8).
Selections: 21-20-2-5 rough chance 8
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like a battle between the South African dynamic duo of Robbie Fradd and Jeff Lloyd. I think Fradd may just finish in front – however, with the last race emergencies maybe getting a run take note of who has rides in the last as it may come down to that.
Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW only)
4,6,8 / 2,7,8 / 10,12,13 / 1,2,6 - cost is $81 to $1
Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
4,6,10,11 / 3,5,6,16 / 4,6,7,13 / 2,5, 20,21 - cost is $256 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
4,6 / 3,5,16 / 4,6 / 2,20,21 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
3,5,6,16 / 4,6,7,13 / 2, 5, 20,21 - cost is $64 to $1
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As usual, this weekend the battle of NSW (WINNO) versus QLD (FLEMO) will continue. So be sure to check out our Facebook profiles for our up to date tips and thoughts on Saturday morning. I am a little worried this weekend as he is in tremendous form!
Good luck and good punting!
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