WINNO'S WINNERS: ROSEHILL - SLIPPER DAY 2018!
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, March 22, 2018
WINNO’S SLIPPER DAY SELECTIONS – SATURDAY 24 MARCH 2018
Well we are here the 2018 Golden Slipper at Rosehill
The track is rated “SOFT” and the rail will 2 metres out for the entire track.
There are showers forecast for the next few days in Sydney – so the track should remain around the SOFT reading.
I am hoping that there is not torrential rain as we have seen in recent Golden Slipper days where the track becomes a bog, and anything can win!
The program will highlight the mighty mare “WINX” looking for her 24th consecutive race win and Hugh Bowman returns the saddle fully recovered after being dislodged two weeks ago in a race and sustaining concussion.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Straight down the page here for my selections.
But let’s start at number 3. I Am Excited (3) trained by David Pfieffer and to be ridden by Blake Shinn is looking for a hat trick of wins. The only question I have is can she handle a wet track. I did a little research and found a nice barrier trial back in October 2017 on a slow surface at Warwick Farm. That looked a nice effort, so I am a little more confident now.
James Cummings and the Godolphin team have two nice chances here as well in Beau Geste (4) and Isaurian (6). Both are second up this weekend and I think they both have some serious room for improvement on their first up efforts. They must go in your exotics.
Brave Song (5) from the Peter & Paul Snowden team comes off a very solid run in the Hobartville and back in grade here looks well placed and will handle the wet conditions. I note the key booking of Kerrin McEvoy for this colt.
Selections: 3-4-5-6
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Race 2 Epona Stakes
I normally do not tip Victorian horses coming to run in Sydney first up, however, Consommateur (2) from the Michael Kent stables ticks a few boxes. The mare has won at Rosehill in a previous outing here. She loves wet tracks and she has the genius riding ability of Hugh Bowman on her side – so it is a little hard to go past this one at $8.
The danger looks to be Karavali (3) from the Kris Lees stables in Newcastle who was solid in a last start win at Randwick over the mile. Third up here this weekend and with solid wet weather form she rates well to be in the finish.
I am not sold on the early market favourite Nettoyer (7) who was beaten last start by Karavali (3). She has a two-kilogram weight advantage this start – maybe this places her closer this weekend.
If you are looking for a roughie to knock them out at around $21 you cannot go past Oklahoma Girl (5) who grows webbed feet when she smells wet tracks. The heavier the track the better! I see Tommy Berry has come back from Hong Kong for this massive Golden Slipper program and takes the ride on this Chris Waller runner. Tommy has ridden her on two previous occasions for a win and a third so he certainly knows the Fastnet Rock mare.
Selections: 2-3-7-5
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Race 3 Manion Cup
Not a massive fan of this race.
I like the ex-New Zealand runner Patrick Erin (5) trained now in Sydney by Chris Waller.
This runner has a nice second up record and the run first up at Randwick suggested that the he was looking for a longer distance – the 2400metres of this race will be right up his alley.
Alward (6) the other Waller runner gives him a chance to quinella this race.
He is third up this weekend with McEvoy in the saddle. Last start he powered to the line late and his third up record is solid with a win and a second from two starts.
Master of Arts (4) from the Darren Weir stables in Victoria has recently trialled over the hurdles – he does have a knack of getting them to run well after doing this. I just think the weight may be too much and his first run in Sydney may prove too big a challenge.
A rough chance has to be the John O’Shea runner Peribsen (12 who comes off a solid win last start and has the inform Tye Angland aboard.
Selections: 5-6-4-12
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Race 4 The Ranvet Stakes
This is an odd race with runners coming from all around the place. Some of the form is out of the Australian Cup when Harlem saluted at $61.
Gailo Chop (1) was defeated last start in the Australian Cup by Harlem (3). I think that this weekend the tables will be turned!
The danger will be the mare Single Gaze (8) who loves this Rosehill track so watch out! I would love to her salute in a Group 1 race for trainer Nick Olive and jockey Kathy O’Hara. This is her chance this weekend to show her worth!
Harlem (3) rounds out my trifecta – whilst the win was unexpected in the betting last start there was some confidence from the stable surrounding this runner in the lead up to the Australian Cup. He will be at home on a wet surface as well.
Selections: 1-8-3-4
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Race 5 - 2018 George Ryder
This is a tough selection process – NOT!
WINX – and daylight second!
Selections: 4-1-6-3
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Race 6 Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas
This race is very open – it would not surprise me if we have one of those $51 winners in this race as it is very difficult to line up the form from New Zealand, Victoria and NSW.
Many of the runners have come from New Zealand and it could all boil down to the runners that have travelled the best and settled in well.
I am going for Mission Hill (13) and The Lord Mayor (11).
I was taken by the run of Mission Hill (13) three weeks ago at Ellerslie in the New Zealand Derby when beaten by Vin De Vance (2). In the same race The Lord Mayor (11) finished fourth in front of Mission Hill (13) after settling back and flying home late in a great performance.
I am finding it difficult to separate them. I am hoping that this weekend that Kerrin McEvoy doesn’t allow The Lord Mayor to get too far back and we can see that blinding powerful finish – if he can produce that this weekend over the shorter 2000 metres I think he is a real chance.
Ace High (1) with Tye Angland aboard will improve stepping up to the 2000 metres. I think with three runs under his belt he is well placed to be very competitive.
Then if you want to look for another New Zealand runner as a knock out chance I am thinking that Tommy Berry has pulled the right rein and jumped aboard Mongolian Marshal (19). He is the first emergency and will need some luck to get a run but, if he does get a run, I think despite coming out of restricted grade he looks like a runner with plenty of improvement and is bred to get the 2000 metres.
Selections: 11-13-1-19 rough chance 8
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Race 7 2018 GOLDEN SLIPPER 2-YEAR-OLD CLASSIC
The fortune of the barrier draw? Do we place so much emphasis on it? Should we? Or should we punt on what we have seen and know?
I suppose that is what you must consider when you are weighing up the chances of the Hawkes trained Estijaab (11). This runner ran a nice time last start at Randwick – sure he was under pressure, but he fought on and has had a fortnight off between runs unlike the two favourites who went around last weekend and looked like they were under pressure despite winning.
I keep on looking at the replays in the lead up to this year’s Slipper.
I expect with the Tony Gollan trained Ef Troop (6) drawn in barrier 2 and Sizzling Belle (14) drawn in barrier 1 I think that there will be some serious genuine speed in the race. So, I am going for a runner drawn midfield who will settle back off them and I am hoping for a slashing run late in the final 150 metres. He is around the $21 in markets as well and he has a big race jockey aboard who has won the race on two occasions in 2013 aboard Overreach and 2015 aboard Vancouver both for Gai Waterhouse. So, my tip is Aylmerton (3) to win the Slipper and to get Tommy Berry his third winner and join a select number of jockeys who have won three Slippers – Mick Dittman, Kevin Langby and Athol Mulley. I think with a month between runs and running 1.08.84 when winning his last start at Randwick in the Todman he will be right in this!
So, the irony here is that I think Tommy may knock off Gai Waterhouse’s trained Santos (3). Santos will be ridden by Tim Clark, who is looking to score his maiden Slipper winner. He has had a solid hit out in a barrier trial on a heavy track ten days ago so he will handle the wet conditions.
Everyone knows I have a massive opinion and soft spot for the Tony McEvoy trained Sunlight (10) who won the 2018 Magic Millions. I remember him telling me after the race “now to plot a course to win the Golden Slipper with this filly”. Whilst some have been critical of the preparation these knockers were also around Magic Millions day when she ran the week before and came out and destroyed them in the Millions. Since then she has won two more races in great style. I think she is the real deal, but maybe she is reaching the end of her preparation – if she wins Tony McEvoy is an absolute genius!
His other runner is Oohood (12), who has a heap of gear changes and will race in blinkers this weekend, has the services of the Hong Kong based Zac Purton who is seeking his maiden victory in the Slipper. This filly was unlucky in the Blue Diamond and I think she will be better suited with the blinkers this weekend.
Selections: 3-2-11-10 rough chances 1,9,12,18
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Race 8 – 2018 Galaxy
This is a tough sprint race at Group 1 level.
In Her Time (3) reportedly has bad feet and she is not always happy on wet tracks – which seems odd when she has bad feet.
Anyway, she has the services of Zac Purton and the trial in Newcastle two weeks ago looked solid. I am just not sure where she will get to from barrier 13 and with a likely wet track.
Snitty Kitty (10) is always a bridesmaid. She placed at Group 1 level last start when narrowly beaten by Russian Revolution and has a win at Group 2 level. I just keep coming back to her win at Doomben back in June 2017 when she was so dominant over the 1050 metres. Down in the weights (52 kilograms) and drawn handy – she is the one to beat for mine! She has been sensationally backed as well (I got $11 when the markets opened on Tuesday) and she is now into $6. She should handle the wet track. Will it be feature Group 1 races (back to back) for jockey Tim Clark?
Godolphin has Viridine (13) engaged. This colt is undefeated second up – placed well, down in the weights and Brenton Avdulla in the saddle there is a lot to like here for this runner. He is a solid Group 2 performer but this weekend he gets the chance to crack his Group 1 duck.
The mud lark of the field is Jungle Edge (2) who eats mud! With the seasoned Kevin Forrester in the saddle his run behind Redzel was solid. He will be on the pace and in front for a long way – watch out if the track is a bog!
Selections: 10-3-13-2
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Race 9
Sugar Bella (3) looks a nice way to finish off the day! She is second up after winning the Wenona Girl Quality and has won twice second up – so I think she is a great bet.
The Snowden team finish the day with Missile Coda (14) who has two starts for two wins on a slow track. She is down in the weights and despite coming off a midweek win last start I think she is a genuine chance.
Faraway Town (2) is looking for a hat trick of wins after winning her last two starts at Randwick – personally I think she is a Randwick horse and usually doesn’t perform that well at Rosehill. I think she may be challenged this weekend. Now I have potted her – Hugh Bowman will probably get her home.
Fragonard (8) from the Godolphin team, flew home late after getting a interrupted run at Flemington last start. Craig Williams goes aboard here this weekend. He has ridden her to victory previously at Moonee Valley in August 2017 – she may be a knock out chance in the last!
Selections: 3-14-8-2 rough chance 10
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like Kerrin McEvoy has a solid book of rides – so he should win the challenge. If you are looking for some value I would suggest a nibble at Tim Clark and Jason Collett.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
2,3,7 / 4,5,6 / 1,3,8 / 4 - cost is $27 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,11,13,19 / 2,3,10,11 / 3,10,13 / 2,3,8,14 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,11,13 / 2,3,10 / 3,10 / 3,14 - cost is $36 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
11 / 2,3 / 3,10 / 3 - cost is $4 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,3,10,11 / 3,10,13 / 2,3,8,14 - cost is $48 to $1
Big 6 (NSW only races 4 to 9)
1,8 / 4 / 1,11,13 / 2,3,10,11 / 3,10,13 / 3,8,14 - cost is $216 to $1
Good luck and good punting!
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