WINNO'S WINNERS - ROSEHILL, MARCH 31
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, March 29, 2018
WINNO’S WINNERS – SATURDAY 31 MARCH 2018
Back at Rosehill after last weekend's great day of racing with a wonderful ride by Brenton Avdulla to win the Slipper on the Hawkes trained Estijaab!
What about WINX – pushed in a race and she pulled out all stops to win. I think the decision this week to let her stay in Australia and shoot for her fourth successive Cox Plate is the right one. I think the Australian public deserves to see our champion go out on a high!
The track is currently rated as “SOFT” and the rail will 4 metres out for the entire track this weekend.
There are showers forecast for the next few days in Sydney so the track should remain around the SOFT reading.
We have a 9-race program – let’s hook into it!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
We start the program with a 2-year-old race over 1400 metres.
Sweet Ava (11) looks well placed here by trainer Gerald Ryan. The Snitzel filly will be ridden by Tye Angland and from barrier 8 she will be placed midfield before chiming in and defeating this lot! She raced well last start when beaten by Sunlight – I think the extra distance will see her prevail this weekend.
Aristocratic Miss (12) is another nice two-year-old filly out of the strong Tony McEvoy yards who has had a solid season with his two-year-old team this year. Last start in the VRC Sire’s at Flemington she settled off the speed and motored home late. I expect that she will be ridden the same way this weekend – so barrier 16 should not pose a huge obstacle for her.
Peter & Paul Snowden train Spin (1). Despite being a maiden this colt looks like he has been looking for a longer distance. Drawn well and with soft track form he looks ideally placed here.
Selections: 11-12-1-3 rough chance 5
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Race 2
Liapari (9) comes off a three-week break and Brenton Avdulla is aboard (he has ridden the gelding 7 times for 3 wins). I think the last run at Randwick was solid making up solid ground late in the straight. I think the wet conditions will suit him.
One Foot In Heaven (1) has been backed sensationally from $8 to $3.60 in his debut run in Australia for the Chris Waller stables. I am thinking that he will need the run – but look for him to working into the race late.
Another Waller runner Mackintosh (2) looks well placed. He normally does show something third up and he could be right in this race as there seems not much depth in the field.
Tally (3) from the Godolphin team is third up as well and normally shows some improvement each preparation at this start – look for an improved performance.
Selections: 9-2-1-3
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Race 3
Nieta (6) is a great bet here at around the $5 mark. This is a special in my book!
The mare loves wet tracks, performs well second up and I think last start got too far back out of her ground and motored home to be beaten just over a length!
Burning Passion (4) is second up and has a good record (4 starts – 2 wins & 2 seconds) second up. First up he was held up, had to cross heels and needed some more luck but still fought on well late. This Mark Newnham trained gelding has drawn the rail and I think will be filling a place here.
New Universe (11) has been up a while, however, last start boxed on well when running third to Dothraki (1). That run keeps him under notice here.
Dothraki (1) well he won on protest last start – and rightly so, after being knocked over by Sprightly Lass. I just cannot catch him so he will probably go on and put two wins on the board now after I bag him out.
Kaepernick (3) has had 6 weeks between runs but has had a barrier trial that seemed to look like a good hit out on the video. This horse has always had ability – maybe this weekend he may just show up at odds and put consecutive wins on the board.
Selections: 6-4-3-11 rough chance 1
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Race 4
This race looks like a tough assignment.
I am staying with Daysee Doom (1) - there is nothing like winning form! Since resuming from a spell the Ron Quinton trained mare has put two great wins on the board. Andrew Adkins stays aboard this mare and he has a wonderful affiliation with her riding her 16 times for 7 wins and 5 placings.
The stablemate is Dixie Blossoms (3) and she motored home last start when beaten by Daysee Doom (1) – it would not surprise me to see the tables turned this weekend!
Oregon’s Day (8) is disadvantaged at the weights this weekend, however, the run a fortnight ago was awesome.
Eckstein (7) from the Kurt Goldman stables looks like she is threatening to post a win as well. Will it be this weekend?
Selections: 1-3-8-7 rough chance 4
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Race 5
This is an open race.
I am think the Godolphin runner trained by James Cummings, Astoria (1), will be better suited back the Sydney way of going and back on a track she is familiar with. Some nice odds are on offer at $9 presently – each way all day.
I have an opinion of Our Mantra (4). Now I may be way off the mark here, however, this Joseph Pride trained gelding looked impressive winning a Class 1 race at Wyong three weeks ago. He gave me the impression that a longer distance would not bother him – that being said it is a massive class rise from a Class 1 to a Group 2 assignment.
Levendi (2) beat Astoria (1) home last start at Moonee Valley but I think Astoria was at a distinct disadvantage on the tight turning track so I expect the result to be reversed. Having said that this Peter Gelagotis runner has some solid form and will not be disadvantaged on a damp track.
Belfast (3) may show something as well – however, it is his first run in Sydney.
I was hoping that Mongolian Marshal (6) got a run last weekend so I suppose that I should be putting the Kiwi runner in here somewhere – just this weekend I don’t think the track will be so wet so he may just struggle on the firmer surface.
Selections: 1-4-2-3 rough chance 6
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Race 6 - Group 1 Tancred Stakes
This race is very good Group 1 race.
I think the top two runners have it between them – they are both genuine Group 1 race performers.
Gailo Chop (1) is on a short back up after winning the Ranvet Stakes (Group 1) here last weekend. Will he convert consecutive Group 1 races in two weeks? I think so!
Almandin (2) owned by Lloyd Williams has been running into some form – first time at Rosehill – but will be trained to the minute to show his best.
Single Gaze (9) - she is honest but she is running into some good ones now. I feel for trainer Nick Olive. Maybe she will shine in the upcoming Brisbane Winter Carnival if she spells and comes back in this form.
Selections: 1-2-9-6
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Race 7 Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes
The lethal Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller team was to unite here again looking for more Group 1 glory with Unforgotten (7) – however, Bowman was stood down from riding on Wednesday at Warwick Farm suffering from a viral infection. He will be hopefully cleared to ride Winx in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick on 14 April.
He has been replaced here by Kerrin McEvoy – no dramas with him aboard and at $5 she looks great value here. She loves the Rosehill track where she has a 100% record – 3 starts for 3 wins. Her last start victory here in the Phar Lap Stakes (Group 2) was remarkable and I think the step up in distance will suit her.
The dangers appear to Alizee (2) from team Godolphin and Aloisia (1) from the Aaron Purcell stable.
Aloisia (1) has had the tongue tie removed for this run – maybe she will improve? She has won at Group 1 level already but she hasn’t won in 21 weeks. I am not certain that the gear change will make much difference this weekend.
Hiyaam (9) the Victorian visitor from the Mick Price stables is second up here – look for a sharp improvement.
Selections: 7-2-9-1
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Race 8 – The Doncaster Prelude
This could be a wave of BLUE here – I am talking about a unique Godolphin trifecta!
Interlocuter (4) with Tye Angland aboard has had a five week break since his last run at Randwick over an unsuitable distance. Since then he has gone around in a trial and the performance was solid. I think second up here with a distinctive great second up record and the longer distance and barrier 3 ... I like this one!
The stablemates are Duca Valentinois (3) who has a great third up record with three wins from 7 starts. I think again the step up in the longer distance we will see this one running home.
Spectroscope (7) has Craig Williams on board this weekend – a great second up record unbeaten at Rosehill and a liking for this distance. He may just be one at odds to knock the more favoured runners at $15.
Radipole (9) - trained by Michael Moroney - ran a solid race in the Ajax Stakes. Another one with a genuine chance.
This race can turn up some odd results each year, so it may pay to go wide here – you may strike a motza!
Selections: 4-3-7-9 rough chances 8 & 10
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Race 9
The last race – I hope you have some cash in the wallet come this race!
Will we see another sea of BLUE here in the last race?
Godolphin have two well backed runners in Beau Geste (13) and Osbourne Bulls (5) in the race. Both have genuine chances.
I am tipping the bottom weight – the 'lucky for some' number 13 – Beau Geste. I think he really did not get a clear crack at them at Warwick Farm. Here, with McEvoy aboard and the small weight, he looks like he will get us home on a positive note.
The stable mate is Osbourne Bulls (5) and he is a genuine chance as well. Forget he went around at Kembla Grange. He had no luck – knocked down, held up, steadied and he still managed to finish off nicely despite the checked path in the straight.
Stonebrook (8) led in the same race and was just pipped on the post late. If they are leading and dominating late in the day – he will be difficult to run down here.
Selections: 13-5-8-4 rough chances 9 & 11
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like Kerrin McEvoy has a solid book of rides – so he should win the challenge. If you are looking for some value I would suggest a nibble at Corey Brown and Golden Slipper winning jockey, Brenton Avdulla.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,2,3,9 / 3,4,6 / 1,3,8 / 1,2,4 - cost is $108 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,2 / 2,7,9 / 3,4,7 / 4,5,8,13 - cost is $72 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1 / 2,7 / 3,4 / 5,13 - cost is $8 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,7,9 / 3,4,7 / 4,5,8,13 - cost is $36 to $1
BIG 6 (races 4 to 9 NSW only)
1,3 / 1,2 / 1 / 2,7 / 3,4,7 / 5,13 - cost is $48 to $1
Good luck and good punting!
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