WINNO'S WINNERS - DOOMBEN, MARCH 31

By Darren Winningham | Friday, March 30, 2018

DOOMBEN RACES SATURDAY 31 MARCH 2018

Doomben this week!

The track is likely to be rated “HEAVY” and the rail will be 6.5 metres out from the 800m to the 400m and 6.0 metres for the rest of the course this weekend.

There is more rain forecast again on Friday – and scattered showers again on Saturday, so the track will be wet meaning we will need to be looking for wet track horses this weekend.

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1

Not a big fan of this race – the same old offenders going around looking for a win!

Irish Optimism, from the Waller yards on the Gold Coast with Lee Magorrian aboard, looks well placed for mine. He will handle wet tracks and the 2-kilogram claim for Lee may be of benefit in the final stages of a 2220 metre race on a soft toheavy track.

The danger will be the David Vandyke trained Savwell (5) who has solid wet track form and has been racing consistently. The key booking of Jeff Lloyd grabs my attention this weekend – he has a knack to be able to lift these horses in these distance races and get them home. This Savabeel gelding is attempting this distance for the first time. Will he run it out solidly? His breeding suggests he will.

Selections: 2-5-1-4

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Race 2

Three-year-old runners on a heavy track and over 2040 metres – some of them for the first time – what a challenge!

I think I may just strip down and run through the parade ring “Naked” (12) – well maybe not! I don’t think the paying public would like to see WINNO running in his birthday suit at the track, although it may give Josh Fleming something interesting to call!

This Barry Lockwood trained gelding, to be ridden by Anthony Allen, looks like he is crying out for the 2000 metres. He has been solid in recent starts – working home nicely behind Epic Rant (1) last start at the Gold Coast. He will like the wet surface as well and down on the minimum at $7 I think he is a great each way chance.

Improvise (3), another Waller runner debuting in South East Queensland for the stable after a solid effort at Gosford around ten days ago, may measure up here. Robbie Fradd aboard – she may just have settled in on the Gold Coast and be ready to show something.

Epic Rant (1) was solid last start winning at the Gold Coast over 1800 metres settling off the speed and making a late charge late. That run would suggest that the distance will be no trouble this weekend.

Selections: 12-3-1-7 rough chance 10

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Race 3

First Class Miss (7), from the Rob Heathcote stables, made her debut on a heavy track at Doomben two weeks ago at a midweek meeting and won with South African Sean Cormack in the saddle. I think that the team can repeat the dose here this weekend!

She has been backed in the early markets from $7.50 to $5 – so there appears to be some confidence in her here again. Last weekend these two combined to win the last race at Doomben with Trommelschlagen at massive odds. Sean looks like he will be a rider to keep his eye on in Brisbane as he affirms his talent with local trainers and owners.

The first starter Sesar (6) for the Steven O’Dea stables has been kept short in the early markets. I thought her two trials in preparation for this run have been solid and she will be ridden to perfection by Paul Hammersley.

Les Ross has Miss Sara (3) looking to post consecutive wins on wet tracks. She has had three weeks off since her last win here on a soft track when she led and Jeff Lloyd dictated the race. Maybe these tactics will be used again this weekend and, if so, could prove the critical factor in winning the race!

Selections: 7-6-3-10

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Race 4

I keep on coming back to Final Zero (6) trained by Michael Lakey. Forget the last start run where she tailed off last and pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. She has trialled well since then and looks well placed with a wet surface. Apprentice Lani Fancourt is aboard this weekend – she will claim 1.5 kilograms and I expect her to be ridden forward here.

My Little Flicka (4) won first up for Les Ross with Michael Murphy in the saddle a month ago. This seven-year-old mare is only lightly raced and has always shown some ability. Maybe she can go on with it this weekend and keep that eye catching winning success rate for apprentice Michael Murphy on metropolitan tracks on a Saturday.

There has been some support for Tversky (11). I assume that is based on the heavy track form of this Gary Duncan trained gelding – 2 wins for 2 starts on a heavy surface. He has had 3 weeks since his last run. Maybe down on the minimum he will show up if the track is truly heavy and a bog.

Selections: 6-4-11-8

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Race 5

Susurri (5) is my on top selection here from the Barry Lockwood stable. Can Barry post a winning Saturday double on this meeting (see race 2). This filly seems to race best with a break between runs – it is 8 weeks since her last run which she won at Doomben on a heavy track. There seems to be no support for her in the markets this weekend – but she has the services of the inform Ronnie Stewart to guide her here.

Matthew Dunn has Arrestar (4) resuming here. Whilst she has no formal wet weather form she has been trialling on wet tracks.

Setoga (2) has a win on a heavy surface and looks well placed here.

Selections: 5-4-2-1

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Race 6

This must be the hardest race on the program – so many chances here.

Tiyatrolani (8) from the Tony Gollan stables is above average and may just be able to keep these others at bay here with Jim Byrne in the saddle. She has had a recent barrier trial where she looked well, and I would assume has trained on well since that hit out. She has some solid slow track from – however, her only start on a heavy track she appeared not to handle it.

Toby Edmonds has Impregnable (11) resuming here as well. This gelding has had two trials to get him ready for this race. I seem to remember that he has some bad barrier manners and sometimes can miss the kick. He cannot afford to do that here in this race.

Gracida (6) resumed last start on his home track at the Sunshine Coast and was narrowly beaten on a soft track by Beat Street (9) who he meets again here this weekend.

Selections: 8-11-6-9

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Race 7

River Racer (14), trained by Les Ross, demonstrated some very good form in the 2017 Brisbane Winter Carnival. He trialled recently with Sheriden Tomlinson aboard at Doomben on a soft track and looked well in himself. He has proven wet weather track form and Taylor Marshall has been booked to ride him – his 2-kilogram claim will assist him in this first up assignment. Look, he does not win often but that form out of the Winter Carnival should stand up here.

Mogador (6) ran a great race in the Goldmarket a fortnight ago on the Gold Coast. He settled back out of his ground and then made a sustained run along the rails to be beaten by around 2 lengths. I think that this Lonhro gelding will be ready to show his best here. Matthew McGillivray takes over this weekend in the saddle.

Let’s Party Marty (8) I tipped on top last start and the run was solid. He will be in the finish again this weekend.

King Lear (2) is from the Tony Newing stables at Gosford. Tony brought this gelding to the Gold Coast last start for a first up win on a soft track after some nice trials. Matthew McGuren who rarely rides in the city on a weekend is staying loyal to the gelding here after he won on him on the Gold Coast.

The one that I think may be over the odds here is the top weight Count Cumani (1), trained by Matthew Dunn and to be ridden by Jim Byrne. I think I may have found a spot for him in my top four if he had drawn closer in (he drew barrier 18). This runner is under rated and over priced in the markets at $41.

Selections: 14-6-8-2 rough chance 1

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Race 8

The Open Handicap on the program.

Pelethronius (5), trained by David Pfieffer, comes off a run a fortnight ago at the Gold Coast in the Newmarket. This gelding is undefeated on a heavy track – with 4 wins from 4 starts. I think that if the track is heavy and chopped up come this race he is a genuine chance at around $5. This weekend Jeff Lloyd takes over the reigns.

The run at the Gold Coast was great. Luke Rolls weaved a path in the straight and he kept on working home well. Stepping up in distance this weekend may just prove the key to victory!

Fortensky (3) from the Chris Waller team on the Gold Coast just seems to pop up now and then. I think this weekend with the rise in class and the drop-in weight we may see an improved performance. He has solid soft track form and Robbie Fradd seems to get the best out of him.

Aqua Vite (7) just swims – he loves wet tracks. If the track remains heavy watch out! He will get back here but with the speed on in this race he could settle off them and make a storming run late.

The Richard Laming trained Payroll (1) is clearly the class runner in the field. He has limited wet weather success, however, I have been able to find some solid wet track trial form for this runner. Despite the massive weight (he has earned it) he will be competitive in this average field.

Selections: 5-3-1-7 rough chance 4

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Race 9

This is open as the Sydney heads.

I have settled on the Tony Gollan/Jim Byrne team that combine here with Il Riccio (14) who was unlucky last start at the Gold Coast when beaten by Char Char (12). He missed the start, got caught wide and still finished off powerfully just going under narrowly. I think that is he can jump well here this weekend we will see him in the winner’s stall at around 5.19pm.

There should be some speed in this race and I think that Karakabeel (3) will be settling off them this weekend being drawn in barrier 17. This may assist him improve after a solid but not all that appealing run at the Gold Coast last start. However, do not be surprised if he jumps out and leads this lot!

Lyricist (8) from Edmonds Racing at the Gold Coast won last start at Ipswich. Drawn handy and Jeff Lloyd in the saddle he must not be overlooked.

The other Edmonds runner is Awake The Stars (13). She is looking for 3 wins in a row and is stepping up to Saturday city class. She can hold her own on a wet surface.

Bred For Luck (9) loves the wet tracks. Troy Pascoe trains this four year old mare. Her last start here 3 weeks ago was solid – she will handle the wet surface – so no dramas there.

Wild Ava (16), trained by Matthew Dunn, also handles heavy and wet conditions and despite rising in class may be competitive here.

Selections: 14-3-8-9 rough chances 11,13, and 16

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Jockey Challenge

Looks like it is going to be a very close battle this weekend between Jeff Lloyd and Robbie Fradd. These South Africans seem to be showing up each week – I suppose it may be a South African trifecta with Sean Cormack having a nice book of rides as well. This week I think Robbie may get the cash!

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

1,3,7,12 / 3,6,7 / 4,6,11 / 1,2,4,5 - cost is $144 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

6,8,9,11 / 1,3,5 / 1,3,5 / 3,8,9,14 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

8,11 / 3,5 / 3,5 / 3,8,14 - cost is $24 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,3,5 / 1,3,5 / 3,8,9,14 - cost is $36 to $1

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Last weekend WINNO beat Josh Fleming in our weekly tipping competition – whilst it was a thorough victory (I won by $1) I can only hope that he can bounce back this weekend! Otherwise it will be three defeats in a row – I think the record is a series of 5! If you beat that record FLEMO there will have to be retribution!

Good luck and good punting!

I have created scandal on my Facebook page by defending Steve Smith predominantly and the other cricketers who have admitted ball tampering. My view is that the sentences are manifestly too severe for cricketers for their first offences.

Steve Smith, the Australian captain is the man who averages over 64 when he bats for his country, and is only second to Sir Donald Bradman. History has demonstrated that previous players found guilty ball tampering have had one match suspensions and fines.

When the ICC suspended him for one week I thought “okay”. I then assumed that Cricket Australia will issue a fine and possibly a suspended sentence due to his standing in the game.

I don’t think these players are cheats. But they are guilty of cheating. These are two separate issues. Justice and the penalty based on the severity of the offence, and the ICC didn’t ban Bancroft. So why is it that Australia Cricket has decided to issue them with a further penalty?

Why is it that a team of Australian Cricket investigators were tasked by James Sutherland (CEO) to go to South Africa and look at the event, whilst he stayed in his bunker in Melbourne. Only after the public whining did he board a plane and leave for South Africa.

Whilst I accept the investigation needed to be swift, the questions must be asked.

Was it effective?

Was it fair?

Was it influenced by the social media outcries and the lynching mob back in Australia wanting blood?

Who knows!

I hope the players appeal the severity of the sentence as it is manifestly in opposition to any precedence in the game of cricket. I have always thought in sport that sentences are based on precedent and records that span years – not due to a knee jerk reaction.

These three punishments are inconsistent with the ICC standard and inconsistent with the treatment of comparable offences in other countries.

Over the past few days there has been more blood shed with Lehmann stepping down as the Australian coach. I find it difficult to believe that the coach was not aware of the plan that was allegedly hatched during the lunch break to use sand paper on the ball. However, his is on the record saying he did not know that this was about to occur.

Now the Australian Cricket pyramid is crumbling from the base up – a player, the Vice Captain and the Captain of the team and now the national Coach – there is only one person left in this whole sordid affair to fall on his sword – James Sutherland the CEO of Australian Cricket.

So will he do the honourable thing and resign – time will tell!

I hope that the Australian Cricket Board accepts the role they have played in this saga and ensure that appropriate support and counselling is offered and supplied to all these gentlemen. But please do not forget the rest of the team, the support staff and the families who all must be doing it tough right now.

Personally, I would be happy to welcome any of these lads into my home for a meal and a drink and to watch a game of footy or go to the races. I think they are champions and heroes – the statistics and the records show this!

That's my say.

Winno