WINNO'S WINNERS: SUNSHINE COAST, APRIL 14
By Darren Winningham | Friday, April 13, 2018
Sunshine Coast races this week!
The track is rated “SOFT” (Just like the Brisbane Broncos) and the rail will be in the true position.
The weather is forecast to be warm around 30 degrees on the weekend – so there may be an upgrade to the track.
Looks like I will not be heading north on Saturday and getting caught in the traffic jams that plague the Bruce Highway. At this stage I have no concrete plans – but I am thinking about a sneaky trip to the Gold Coast to catch up that crew down there – maybe the comeback kid Dan Griffin will go toe to toe with WINNO for 60 seconds if I make it down there! Actually – I may put the challenge out – who else wants to take on the challenge!
However, next weekend I have been invited to be the Mayor of Kilcoy for the day on Saturday 21 April!
How can I turn down such an offer – so I will be at the Kilcoy Race Club “The Moonee Valley of the North” for their annual Diggers Race Day. I must say to all punters – families and just racing fans – if you want a wonderful day out and an opportunity to see a wonderful ANZAC tribute – you cannot miss this day!
Now back to Saturday's selections.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
***************************************************************************************************
Race 1
These races have a low interest for me – the same old offenders going around looking for a win!
Chris Waller stables from the Gold Coast have three of the ten runners. I think his best chance is Irish Optimism (3) to be ridden by Lee Magorrian. Last start he was just beaten by his stable mate Xebec. He likes soft tracks and will be suited here.
Stanley (6) looks the only danger. He is trained by Michael Costa and is on a quick back up after contesting the Toowoomba Cup last weekend. He was beaten just over 3 lengths and that is good form for this restricted race.
If you want a roughie – I would suggest you consider something on Michael Murphy who rides Idle Situation (7) for Glen Baker. These two combined a month ago at Doomben and won on a soft track. Last start he ran at Beaudesert over the mile – forget that run – it was too short, and the track did not suit his style of racing. I expect Murphy will trail the speed here before making his move and coming down the crown of the Sunshine Coast track. He represents good each way value at around $12.
Selections: 3-6-7-2 rough chance 10
**************************************************************************************************
Race 2
Two-year-old race – many of these have not been seen at the track. This is for the boys!
I am tipping the undefeated Kelly Doughty trained Blue Book (I am a NSW supporter after all). Looks like this Denmarket gelding is well placd – he was 3 from 3 in his first preparation and recently ran a strong trial at Doomben defeating Revel (10). I think that the weight is deserved. I just hope that Lee Magorrian sits off the speed and then rockets home late.
I do like the two Tony Gollan debutants – Revel (10) and Royal Hale (11). As mentioned Revel (10) ran a nice trial behind Blue Book (1) and on the same day Royal Hale (11) won his trial. The are both nice odds at around $16 each.
Mishani Hustler (3) comes off a last start win at Doomben and the winning team of Ben Currie and Taylor Marshall will be looking to repeat the dose here.
Selections: 1-11-10-3 rough chance 4
*****************************************************************************************************
Race 3
The two-year-old race for the girls.
I like Clockwise (3) from the Mark Webb stables. She was beaten by Snicki Minaj on debut. She has had a 12 week freshen up and with Damian Browne aboard on her home track she looks the one to beat.
Fish ‘n’ Snitz (4) just seems to find trouble in her races – this weekend at her home track and with the large wide surface I am expecting her to be competitive in the race.
Zoom By (6), trained by Liam Birchley, won at Gatton on debut three weeks ago. Drawing barrier 15 ... I think Ron Stewart may ease back and be patient before making his run in the straight.
Selections: 3-4-6-1 rough chance 12
***************************************************************************************************
Race 4
Bergerac (2) from the Steve Tregea stable is on a quick back up after winning last weekend at Toowoomba. He is undefeated at the Sunshine Coast (3 from 3 here) – a change in jockey this weekend with Larry Cassidy going aboard.
The locally trained Trois Choix (3) looks the hardest to beat. A second behind Doubt Defying five weeks ago here is great form for this race. She won a trial 2 weeks ago – so looks hard to roll. Jeff Lloyd takes the ride.
Selections: 2-3-4-5
***************************************************************************************************
Race 5
Tversky (8), trained here, was unlucky last start at Doomben when he could not run down the tearaway leader My Little Flicka. This weekend look for a solid performance on his home track where he has won three races.
Mr Bellagio (9) was well backed last start at Doomben when flashing home late and getting the chocolates. Ronnie Stewart retains the ride for the Liam Birchley stables.
Real Ego (7) backs up quickly from a Toowoomba run last weekend. I just hope that the quick back up is not going to hinder his chances. He did run a nice second to Bergerac (engaged in Race 4 – number 2) so you may get a gauge on his chances by closely watching that race result.
Helarocity (3) is trained by Lindsay Hatch. He likes this track and loves to get back and make a long run. Doomben recently has not permitted him to race in this fashion – so there are no excuses here this week for mine.
Selections: 8-9-7-3 rough chances 5 & 6
****************************************************************************************************
Race 6
I am tipping one to knock most punters out of the Quaddie this weekend at $31 – Brotherly Secret from the Rob Heathcote stables. He has a wonderful third up record with 2 wins and a placing from 5 starts.
I have looked at the last start at the Gold Coast and I would strongly suggest you forget the run. He normally loves to run on the speed and he likes big tracks where he can settle and come home – or dominate from the front. I think we may see one of these tactics adopted this weekend by jockey Ronnie Stewart – and we all know how he seems to have a knack of getting a long-priced winner home!
Dreams Aplenty (2), trained by John Zielke, loves to lead as well. I see that he has sort out the services of front running specialist jockey Tegan Harrison for this first up assignment. The gelding had a nice hit out this week on Tuesday in a barrier trial at the Gold Coast and he won impressively with Luke Dittman in the saddle.
The horse that just seems to run into brick walls and get no luck recently has to be Fortensky (3) to be ridden by Robbie Fradd. This Love Conquers All gelding, trained at the Gold Coast by Chris Waller, just seems to get back and must be ridden for luck and on the Doomben track in his last two starts has found trouble in the straight.
I recall Robbie coming back to scale each time muttering and swearing under his breath – so this weekend on this wide large expansive Corbould Park track I really cannot see why there will be any excuses – no pressure on you Robbie now!
Selections: 11-2-3-8
****************************************************************************************************
Race 7
Well this is a race whereI have no idea!
There are horses here from all over the country having their first run in Queensland – set weight conditions as well.
Some are probably being aimed at some races over the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
For you Quaddie and Treble it may be wise to take the field – I just think it is one of those races!
Missybeel (3) is a NSW invader trained by Bjorn Baker who last weekend raced in the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes at Randwick over 2000 metres. She was spent at the 300 metres mark and I think the 2000 metres was just too far for her. The previous start was at Scone over a mile and she won well. I think that back to the mile she will be tough to beat in these conditions.
Matthew Dunn, another NSW invader - well just from over the border - has La Scopa (4) going very well since resuming from a spell. She is working through her grades nicely since resuming from a spell and is looking for a hat trick of wins in this race. Jim Byrne retains the ride and I think this Show A Heart filly may be one to keep your eye on over the upcoming Carnival.
Munce Racing has Skate to Paris (1) going around. She has a victory on the track previously and should be considered a genuine chance.
The runner that may improve is the Tony Gollan trained Hi Lizzy (6). I think now she is third up over a mile we may see the best of her. She needs a big track to wind up and come home. She gets conditions in her favour this week.
Selections: 3-4-1-6 rough chances 9 & 11
***************************************************************************************************
Race 8
I think that if the track is upgraded and gets to “GOOD” you must consider the Liam Birchley trained Sista Act (12) – she is a duffer in the wet. She may not have to lead here as there is some speed in the race. However, if they go hard in front and motor along you must consider the two Robert Heathcote runners.
Rob’s runners are Love and Rock It (5) and Femme Fireball (13).
Femme Fireball (13) is first up after a 15 week spell. I note that Damian Browne has been booked for this Pierro filly. I can tell you the faster they go, the faster she will be coming late and wide out on the crest of the Sunshine Coast track! I have seen her motor home from some impossible positions in her three career starts and I cannot see why will not see that type of finish here.
Love and Rock It (5) has Robbie Fradd aboard. This gelding is much the same – he loves to come home hard.
Setoga (4) from the Steven O’Dea stables looks well placed as well – drawn handy and should be competitive.
Selections: 12-13-4-5 rough chance 2 and 10
***************************************************************************************************
Race 9
Kris Lees has a nice one making his debut in Queensland – Guard of Honour (4). This Northern Meteor gelding won his last start in Canberra in a smart time. He will be hard to beat here.
Gracida (3) trained on the track by David Vandyke won last start by dominating the pace and race at Doomben. Jeff Lloyd may exercise the same tactics again this week, but he has gone up in the weights and he meets a more competitive field. After the win last start Vandyke was bullish about his future races – he will be testing material.
A roughie for mine is the Darryl Ward trained Another Whiskey (8) who is third up this here and loves the track (5 starts 3 wins and a second). He gets in very well with Quayde Krogh’s three-kilogram allowance – this may be a defining factor late in the race as he surges home late.
Selections: 4-3-8-2
***************************************************************************************************
Jockey Challenge
Looks like it is going to be a very close battle this weekend between as many as 5 jockeys. Ronnie Stewart and Jim Byrne look like they have some nice rides. But watch out for the South African lads – Jeff Lloyd and Robbie Fradd! Damian Browne may be a very rough chance as well.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,3,10,11 / 3,4,6 / 2,3,4 / 3,7,8,9 - cost is $144 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3,11 / 1,3,4,6 / 4,5,12,13 / 3,4,8 - cost is $144 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,11 / 3,4,6 / 12,13 / 3,4 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,3,4,6 / 4,5,12,13 / 3,4,8 - cost is $48 to $1
***************************************************************************************************
WINNO V FLEMO returns this weekend after Josh Fleming has had a spell driving out west in Queensland.
Stay tuned to our up to date thoughts Saturday morning on Facebook.
Good luck and good punting!,
More articles
|