WINNO'S WINNERS: RANDWICK, APRIL 21
By Darren Winningham | Friday, April 20, 2018
The third week art Randwick! Will we see some wear and tear on the track and therefore track bias – only time will tell.
Over the first two weeks the track has raced true and every runner has had their chance.
The track is rated “GOOD” and the rail will out 6 metres from the 1600 metres to the winning post and then 4 metres for the rest.
A competitive nine race program on the program!
I do not want to crow – but I did manage to tip the Early Quaddie last weekend – it paid upwards of $1570!
Something for the punters – and thanks to those who messaged me. The loyal followers did have a win!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
*****************************************************************************************************
Race 1
We are starting the program with a TAB Highway Handicap. These are always tough races to find a winner.
Well it seems appropriate after last week that I should tip WINNO IS ON FIRE – sorry that is a typo it should have been Ori Is On Fire (4) trained by Cameron Crockett and to be ridden by the champion Hugh Bowman. This gelding has been racing around the country tracks and this weekend is second up – his record is solid second up and he has been the medium of support from $5 to $3.60 since the markets have opened. Some caution as he has drawn barrier 12.
Matthew Dunn from Murwillumbah has Count Cumani (5) running for the stable. Now I am going out on a limb here – if the track is rated “GOOD” and not rain affected I think you can back this Bradbury’s Luck gelding with some confidence as he has found several soft tracks in recent runs and trials. He is a duffer in the wet and back on a firm surface – second up here where he is undefeated – you may get some better value about this runner. (Currently $6 on offer). We all know that Dunn has a high strike rate in these races.
The top weight – Nic’s Vendetta - has been confidently supported from $9 to $6 so I am putting it in for a place.
A rough chance is Majestic Pedrille (9) trained by Mark Schmetzer with Andrew Adkins aboard.
Selections: 4-5-1-9
***************************************************************************************************
Race 2
A very open field to start the Early Quaddie this weekend – a fair few runners are first up from a spell and have been putting in some solid efforts in trials recently.
Crafty Cop (6) from he Hawkes stables fits that bill. The Starcraft gelding resumes here after a 14 weeks spell after a solid run in the Magic Millions Cup in January when beaten by Care To Think. I think that form will hold up well here and the recent trial would suggest he is on track for a big run first up.
Mark Newnham has Anatola (7) resuming from a spell (16 weeks) and she has won two recent trials in impressive style. His stable is really firing now, and Joshua Parr has been reunited with the mare for the first up assignment. He has a good record on her – 2 rides for 1 win, 1 second. There is some good value about this runner as well.
Dissolute (4) – a Godolphin runner – won last start at Rosehill with Tye Angland in the saddle. The team stay together, and the New Approach gelding gets his first look at Randwick this weekend.
With State of Origin fast approaching I have to put In Times Of War (11) in my top four – seems topical – especially when NSW win the 2018 Origin Series!
Selections: 6-7-4-11 rough chance 3
***************************************************************************************************
Race 3
The Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes is our next race.
Burning Passion (3) and Dothraki (2) met last start and they line up here again this week.
I think that the Mark Newnham stables and Joshua Parr could get a race to race double with here with Burning Passion (3) who is second up and has an impeccable record at these starts (5 starts – 2 wins, 2 seconds).
Despite him meeting Dothraki (2) slightly worse at the weights here, I really think that his record second up and at Randwick will hold him in good stead.
Bolero King (8) I believe is on trial with a view to a possible Brisbane Racing Winter Carnival mission. With that in mind I would expect the Clarry Conners' trained gelding to show something this weekend.
Selections: 3-2-8-7
***************************************************************************************************
Race 4 – Frank Packer Plate (Group 3)
I have an opinion of one here at $21 – Icon Of Dubai (7) from the Peter & Paul Snowden yard. Last start in the Carbine Stakes (Group 3) he over-raced, however, he finished off well to be beaten just under 2 lengths. I think this weekend, with the 2000 metres here, he will be flashing home late again. I just hope he can get the 2000 metres!
Primitivo (8) has had 3 weeks between runs and pulled up a little distressed after his last run. With that time between runs – and considering the run was over 2000 metres at Rosehill - I think that we will see an improved performance. Despite this John Thompson trained gelding still being a maiden I really think he will be competitive.
Holy Snow (3) was a super run a fortnight ago in the Carbine Stakes. He got held up in the straight as he started to make his run into the race – was blocked, steadied – and then finally let down and flew home. He deserves to be favourite and with the smaller field here this week. He will be right in this race.
This race has a history of upset results – so you may need to scout wide.
Selections: 7-8-3-4 rough chance 1 & 5
***************************************************************************************************
Race 5 – James Carr (Group 3)
Manicure (5) from James Cumming’s Godolphin team is my tip here. Last start she motored home and was held off by Houtzen in the PJ Bell Stakes. She is third up here and I was impressed the way she finished off last start – with that in mind the 1400 metres this week should not pose any problems.
Moss Trip (6), from Triple Crown Syndications and the Snowden stables, has had seven weeks between runs. She had a nice hit out in a barrier trial at Gosford last week. In that trial she had them covered the whole way and if McEvoy had let the brakes off I think she could have put a few lengths on them. She will be ready for this run and Snowden has continued to space her runs this preparation.
So Far Sokool (4) from Archie Alexander in Victoria rounds out my top three. She has some solid form over 1400 metres and won the Bendigo Guineas last start in impressive style. Blake Shinn has been booked for the ride and this filly must be respected.
Selections: 5-6-4-7 rough chance 12
***************************************************************************************************
Race 6 Champagne Stakes (Group 1)
This is our first of two Group 1 races on the program – and it is for the two-year-old horses looking to run over the Randwick mile, many of them for the first time.
It is a very open race and could spell disaster for the first leg of the Quaddie.
Long Leaf (2) from the Hayes & Dabernig stables certainly looks like he is one that will get the distance.
Outraged (3) was ridden off the speed last start and got too far back – but, he managed a nice sprint in the straight to make up many lengths. He is another that gives me the opinion that he will like the mile and should be running home late.
Irukandji (6) was ridden on the speed last start and held the opposition off late over 1400 metres at Rosehill. If the track has bias and they are getting out in front and being difficult to run over late you must have this one in!
Seabrook (13) from the Mick Price stables in Melbourne just has had very little luck in Sydney in her three runs. I think that mile will suit – however, she will be another one making a run at the leaders late.
Bondi (7) is an interesting runner from the Snowden stable. He was ridden forward last start from a wide barrier and used up early. I am not sure if that is the right way to ride this colt. Some of his better performances have been when he sits off the speed and then makes a solid run at them late. Maybe there will be an alteration in the riding tactics this weekend and we may see a better performance. He was unlucky in the Magic Millions – I just think he may be one that will appreciate the longer distance.
Selections: 2-3-6-13 rough chance 7 & 12
***************************************************************************************************
Race 7 2018 All Age Stakes (Group 1)
It’s Somewhat (4) and Hartnell (3) are the Godolphin representatives here. We all know Hartnell (3) was the bridesmaid behind Winx last preparation so you must include him in your chances here.
I like the stable mate It’s Somewhat (4) who can pop up first up from a spell. His two recent trials were very solid, and I think that they will have him cherry ripe for this first up assignment over 1400 metres. He has drawn barrier 1 and should not get too far back. The speed that is in the race suggests that he will be suited fresh.
Trapeze Artist (10) was well backed last start in the TJ Smith (Group 1) over 1200 metres. I did have some concerns with him coming back from the mile to the shorter distance, however, Tye Angland turned in an 11 out of 10 ride. I am certain that he will be competitive again this weekend against the older opposition. He is the early market favourite at around $2.30.
Satono Rasen (9) from Japan, who is now trained by Chris Waller, has grabbed my attention. This runner was solid in his first appearance at Rosehill in a trial on 6 April. I really think that if this runner is forward and handles the Randwick track we may see a major upset in the race – he is as much as $51 in some markets I think he is a tremendous each way chance. I am telling you to follow this runner in his coming starts as he may be a tough runner. I am not sure where Waller is going to place him next – maybe a mission to Brisbane who knows – but he can gallop!
Selections: 4-10-3-9 rough chance 13
****************************************************************************************************
Race 8 – 2018 Japan Racing Association Plate (Group 3)
I have gone for some value in my top two tips here.
I like The Pinnacle (15) right down the bottom of the field with no weight on her back. The run a month ago at Rosehill over 1900 metres was a great sight for this run. She races just off them, and I think will be hard to knock off here - $12 on offer as well – each way all day for me.
Interlocuter (6) is another one from Godolphin – it could be raining BLUE this weekend! Tye Angland stays aboard this stallion. I really think that he is a Randwick horse – forget the last start run at Rosehill. The 2000 metres is going to suit him as well – yes, he is attempting the distance for the first time, however, I have faith in James Cummings and his team!
Arbeitsam (1) has won over 2000 metres and jockey Adam Hyeronimus seems to always get the best out of the Waterhouse & Bott trained gelding. His record aboard this one is 4 rides for 2 wins and 2 placings. He was very good last start in the Doncaster (Group 1). He drops back in class and goes up in weight, but he has been working up to this distance nicely.
Cool Chap (10) loves 2000 metres and will be ready to show his best as well in this race. He does meet the top weight very well at the weights since their last start in the Doncaster. I think the run at Randwick would have done him the world of good and tightened him up nicely for this run.
Selections: 15-6-10-1 rough chance 11
***************************************************************************************************
Race 9
Osbourne Falls (7) was super impressive last start at Rosehill. He did find the best part of the track, but nonetheless he stormed home late and surged past the opposition. Brenton Avdulla stays aboard the gelding. He has won 4 times and placed twice in 6 starts aboard this one!
Harper’s Choice (9) resumes here this weekend. Despite this I really think that he has some solid Group race form and is meeting a field in restricted grade. The Gerald Ryan trained gelding did have a nice trial three weeks ago. That is probably enough for this run first up.
I went right down the bottom of the field for my other selections. New Universe (13) I have tipped previously – last start he had no luck in the straight and it may just pay to overlook that run. Previously in his other performances when he has a clear run he has the habit of sprinting fast and making a sustained run – look for an improved performance this weekend at around $14.
Tribal Wisdom (14) is trained by Michael Moroney. This grey gelding will be easy to find in the running in the late afternoon shadows at Randwick. He finished behind Osbourne Falls (7) last start, really without threatening, but he is meeting those runners from that race better at the weights for that defeat.
Selections: 7-9-13-14 rough chances 3 & 4
***************************************************************************************************
Jockey Challenge
Looks like a close battle – well maybe a battle supreme this weekend! I have four jockeys finishing on 7 points or so – the honours may have to be shared! They are Tye Angland, Hugh Bowman, Brenton Avdulla and Joshua Parr. WINNO will put the kiss of death on Brenton Avdulla to knock off or draw with Tye Angland!
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
4,6,7 / 2,3,8 / 3,7,8 / 4,5,6 - cost is $81 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3,6,7,13 / 3,4,9,10 / 6,10,15 / 7,9,13 - cost is $180 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3,6 / 4,10 / 6,15 / 7,9 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
3,4,9,10 / 6,10,15 / 7,9,13 - cost is $36 to $1
BIG 6 (NSW only races 4 to 9)
3,7,8 / 4,5,6 / 2,3,13 / 4,10 / 6,15 / 7,9 - cost is $216 to $1
Good luck and good punting!
More articles
|