WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, MAY 26, 2018
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 24, 2018
Doomben again this week. The track seemed to play even last weekend.
The weather men are saying some rain on Friday and Saturday – they are saying around 1mm – is that really rain?
This week we have consecutive Group 1 races – the Kingsford Smith Cup followed by the 2018 Queensland Oaks.
The track is rated “GOOD” (Thursday afternoon) and the rail will 4.5 metres out the entire course.
I wonder who will dominate this weekend?
Week one – Tim Clark a winning treble and last weekend Jeff Lloyd a consecutive race winning treble. Seems to be a Carnival featuring “3” with trebles every week!
It is a massive program, so I think it is time to hook into it!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The opening race is a sprint over 1200 metres.
Tango Rain (10) has his second run at Doomben. He was sent out favourite last start here and was disappointing. He has the services of Corey Brown who is riding very well presently and has drawn handy and should race on the speed.
Havasay (3) and Matthew McGillivray have an imposing record when they combine at Doomben. This gelding is now back with Liam Birchley. The Rothesay gelding is coming off a dominant win when resuming – ironically defeating Tango Rain (10). The gelding has been well found since the markets opened being smashed from $5 into $3.70. He has an impressive second up record and has drawn well.
Tyzone (7) was sensationally backed when resuming for new trainer Toby Edmonds at the Gold Coast and was very impressive. I have always had an opinion of this Written Tycoon gelding and I think he may go onto win a Listed or Group race over the Carnival. I know that Mr Edmonds does not need any guidance as he places his horses well and trains them to the minute but I would suggest a tilt at the 2018 Grafton Ramornie could be a nice way to end his campaign (just saying Toby!).
Stella Ombre (5) is silly odds at $21. Whilst this Kelly Schweida gelding has not won first up he has run some awesome races first up and been narrowly beaten and always at silly prices. He has had two recent trials and, on both occasions, has been ridden by Jimmy Orman who retains the ride this weekend.
Echo Effect (8) resumed here a fortnight ago and ran a gallant second to Havasay (3). He probably would like a wet track, however he does he a good second up record.
I think if you quinella Havasay (3) and Tyzone (7) you should not go wrong!
Selections: 7-3-5-8 rough chance 10
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Race 2 Mullins Lawyers Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes
This is a tough race over 2200 metres at Group 3 level. I think at the set weight conditions it brings the field a little closer.
I like Dark Dream (2) to win again after a wonderful display in the Rough Habit Plate (Group 3) last start when given a peach of a ride by Tim Clark. I really cannot see him struggling with the extra 200 metres this weekend. Maybe we will see Mitchell Wood jumping around again after the race in the enclosure!
On that note I must send best wishes to his brother Justin Wood who had a track mishap riding at Hong Kong at track work and required surgery to his right shoulder – get well mate!
Han Xin (6) from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott stables is the new comer to Brisbane. He normally likes to race in front and set the tempo and despite being $31 in some markets I think he will be right in the finish. Mark Zahra rides him again. He has a 3-ride record for 1 win and 1 third on him and he rode well last weekend when landing a winner.
California Turbo (4) settled way back in the Rough Habit Plate (Group 3) last start and made steady ground in the straight to run a nice third. Kerrin McEvoy stays aboard this weekend and I think, after reviewing his last start on video, he too will appreciate the extra distance of the Grand Prix.
Time Lord (10) is the Kiwi runner trained by Richard Collett and to be ridden by Kiwi Damian Browne (you know how they like to stick together). The runner comes off a good debut run in Australia winning over a mile at the Sunshine Coast. Look he has proven himself over longer distances in Group races in New Zealand – so do not be bothered by the distance – but I do think he will be better suited in the Derby in a fortnight.
Chris Waller has several runners here. Omineca (12) was a solid fourth last start behind Dark Dream (2) – do not despair I think that the rail being out may be a disadvantage, however, look for a solid run working into the Derby.
Selections: 2-6-4-10 rough chances 1 and 12
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Race 3 Channel 7 Premier’s Cup (Group 3)
Will the Premier be at the track this weekend – the Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk (and yes, I did google it to spell it correctly)?
Will WINNO get a picture with the Premier? All will be answered after the third race!
I think Sedanzer (7) who won the Scone Cup over a mile four weeks ago gets in well here for Waterhouse & Bott. Tim Clark retains the ride after that successful win. I think that she will just sit off them midfield and race home powerfully as is accustomed in her races.
Aqua Vite (13) is the local chance trained on the Gold Coast by Scott Morrisey. He has been racing very consistently and I think that he will not be troubled by the distance. Paul Hammersley stays aboard here again and at the good odds of $21 he is a genuine each way chance.
Darren Weir is will represented with Gallic Chieftain (1) and Kiwia (3) who both raced in the Warrnambool Cup (Listed) last start with the top weight prevailing. There is a distinct weight advantage here to Kiwia (3) for that defeat. Otherwise I do not think there is much between these runners. Maybe keep your eye on the markets to see whether they come for one on Saturday.
Interlocuter (2) was unlucky last start at Doomben when he was beaten by the Stephen Lee $151 shot – Anton En Avant (11). I am going to suggest you strongly overlook that run as the track was soft and he is a duffer on a wet track. Back onto a good track watch out for a sharp improvement – PLUS … NSW man Tye Angland is in the saddle!
Selections: 7-13-3-1 rough chance 2 and 18
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Race 4 The 2018 Lord Mayor’s Cup (Group 3)
Well I think I can confidently suggest the Brisbane City Lord Mayor – the Honourable Graham Quirk (no google here) will be at the track to make this presentation. He loves his horse racing and is here each year for this race. Hmmmm - can WINNO jag a photo here? No pressure!
I like Red Excitement (2) to go close second up after a solid run at Scone over an unsuitable 1300 metres. Prior to that the run in the Gosford Cup was good. Despite being an eight-year-old gelding, he seems to be racing in very competitive form.
The top weight is It’s Somewhat (1) trained by James Cummings – the Godolphin team. He was caught wide in the Hollindale Cup at the Gold Coast and I am letting that run go under the radar. I think that the track, the wide run and not really being able to get into the race did not suit him. The form out of that race has stood up in recent weeks with Comin’ Through and Egg Tart both performing well last weekend in the Doomben Cup (Group 1).
The other two Godolphin runners are Spectroscope (5) and Duca Valentinois (3) who both have been running well.
Duca Valentinois (3) was a gallant second last start to Sedanzer (Race 3 – number 7) who won the Scone Cup. I think he looked like he had every chance – but that track can bring runners unstuck.
Spectroscope (5) was unlucky behind Sheiswhatsheis (13) last time at Doomben. I thought he may have struggled with the mile last start, however, the way he scooted home suggests that the 2200 metres will be right up his alley this week. He too would probably like a softer or wetter track, however, he will enjoy the extra distance.
The two locally trained runners Sheiswhatsheis (13) and Honey Toast (12) should not be overlooked. They both love Doomben and love this distance. If Jeff Lloyd gets his own way in front on Sheiswhatsheis (13) with some slow sectionals he may just pull their pants down!
Selections: 1-2-5-3 rough chances 12 & 13
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Race 5 BRC Sire’s Produce (Group 2)
The youngsters step our here for a Group 2 event over 1350 metres.
The Chris Waller Zousain (3) debuted in Brisbane with a BANG winning the Champagne Classic (Group 2) over 1200 metres. I think with the turn of foot displayed last start at the 200 metres I really cannot see him being beaten again this weekend.
The Kris Lees Star Witness colt is Graff (4) and is unbeaten in two career starts. The last start at Hawkesbury he was heavily backed and won easy. This start he has the comeback kid James McDonald aboard and has blinkers on for the first time.
Sesar (5), despite starting at $16 last start at the Gold Coast in the Ken Russell Memorial (Group 3), had some good support in early markets and across the morning before blowing in the market and then coming out and blowing them away!
Plumaro (10) is from the Kevin Kemp stables at Toowoomba and showed a tonne of ability last preparation. She is first up here and has Jimmy Orman aboard her for the first time. My mail is that she has been working well and has had some jump outs at Toowoomba and should run a nice race here.
There is a push again for the Godolphin runner as well – Dynamited (6) a wonderfully named colt from Exceed and Excel out of Shatters. He has been well found in the markets being backed from $25 to $14.
Boomsara (1) from Munce Racing ran well last start at the Gold Coast when he made a late run at the eventual winner Sesar (5) – he has drawn wide this weekend and may need some luck.
Selections: 3-4-5-10 rough chance 1 and 6
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Race 6 Glenlogan Park Stakes (Group 3)
I am taking the philosophy of Group 1 form back to a Group 3 race ... maybe it will hold up here.
Pedrena (7) comes out of the Sangster at Morphettville where she finished only 4.6 lengths behind the winner Shoals. I think that the soft track didn’t help her chances as well yet, despite that, she ran on well without threatening. At Doomben she will get a firm track – her five career wins have all come on a Good track surface. Drawn in barrier 1 as well and Michael Dee aboard who has ridden her to two of her career wins ... I like her.
The top weight is all class – Foxplay (1). She is trained by the Waller juggernaut team who always seem to have a dominant Brisbane Winter Carnival. This Foxwedge mare comes out of the Queen on the Turf race at Randwick and that race has been very strong for form.
Waller has given her a solid hit out in a barrier trial last week before sending her north to the warm sunny Gold Coast where my spies have told me she has thrived. She does have superior form on wet surfaces - however, with the weight conditions for this race she is well treated. Another solid ride as well for Kerrin McEvoy.
Waller has Invincibella (11) in the race as well. She has never won at the Doomben track in three attempts. So, is this something punters should be cautious of this week? She raced at Hawkesbury last start and I think that she resented the track and we could overlook that run.
Ghisoni (3) is a Godolphin runner and she has been racing consistently without luck. I really think that she has every possible chance to win the Dark Jewel at Scone last start but was swamped late on the line in what was a blanket finish. Again, she is one that thrives on good surfaces and has won all four career starts on good tracks.
The other runners worthy of a mention are the two Toby Edmonds runners.
Plucky Girl (14) who can race forward or settle off the speed and has been racing very well (4 consecutive wins). Her last start win in the Tamworth Cup was dominant with Jimmy Orman aboard her. She steps up in grade this weekend, but I think she is the type of mare that could cause an upset here. The other Edmonds Racing runner is Sylpheed (10) who ran a great race first up in the Silk Stocking on the Gold Coast. She has a dismal second up record – I would keep my eye on her next start as her third up record is very good. Nozi Tomizama rides her well and she could place at some odds if she gets any luck.
Schism (12) is trained by Ciaron Maher and is perfectly drawn in barrier 1. I expect her to lead this field with Damien Browne aboard. She was beaten in the Dark Jewel at Scone last start. If the track has any bias this weekend she may prove difficult to run down.
In summary – probably the toughest race on the program and such a challenging way to start off our Quaddie!
Selections: 7-1-3-11 rough chances 10, 12 & 14
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Race 7 Kingsford Smith Cup – Group 1
This is one of our feature races on the program – the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup.
I was surprised to see the Bjorn Baker runner Champagne Cuddles (11) appear in the final field when it was published. She was very dominant and ran amazing time in the Gold Coast Guineas running a track record 1.07.65 for the 1200 metres. She is lightly raced, and I think a real star of the future. I remember Bjorn Baker sharing with WINNO after that race that “she is a special filly who is going places”. This race is going to be an acid test this weekend. If she wins this with a dominant performance her price will shorten in the Stradbroke in a fortnight’s time – so if you like her I would suggest you get on before the race!
Impending (1) – all I can say if WOW – what a run in the Doomben 10,000 flashing home and coming with a wet sail to just be beaten by English (9) who skirted along the rails and made the best of the fastest way home. Damian Browne stays aboard again for this run and the step up in distance will be an advantage this week.
Care to Think (3) is trained by Matthew Dunn and will have James McDonald aboard. He worked well at Murwillumbah on Tuesday morning this week. Part owner Blair “Gibbo” Gibson assures WINNO he will be at the track. However, his partner in crime Damian “No Show at the Races” Quinn is no chance. So WINNO has sought an explanation of this sad effort – why he is not coming to Doomben for a Group 1 race? He told me that he was heading to Sydney for the NSW Schoolboys trials and quote “trying to pick a team that might eventually win a game for you”. Well in that case he is excused for this weekend – however, if he is a “No Show” on Stradbroke Day he will be barred!
I liked the effort of Endless Drama (8) in recent outings as well. He is not one that has reached great heights in form, but, he has been racing over longer distances (last start in the Doncaster – 1600 metres). His best efforts are around the 1400 metres – so I think he is a genuine outside chance of running a place here. He has had a trial a fortnight ago on a heavy track that he won well and wasn’t really tested. He can handle all types of track. I am not sure where Waller may place him after this run, however, he will be one to follow as the Carnival progresses.
The Waterhouse & Bott runner English (9) was superb winning the Doomben 10,000 a fortnight ago. She is a wonderful mare who just puts in every start. She deserved that win last start. This weekend I think the race will be run differently – she will probably be ridden behind the leaders from barrier 1 and may need some luck again.
Selections: 11-1-8-2 rough chance 9
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Race 8 – 2018 Queensland Oaks – Group 1
This is the feature race on the program – the Treasury Brisbane Queensland Oaks at Group 1 level.
A capacity field of sixteen runners with Chris Waller having five of them.
I think the Chris Waller trained Youngstar (3) won The Roses last start here impressively. She is looking for her fourth consecutive win and this race has been targeted by the Waller team since she resumed this preparation. She keeps on going from strength to strength each race and looks like she will win this Group 1 event. Kerrin McEvoy has the ride again and she has drawn perfectly in barrier 4.
Another Dollar (5) is a team Waller filly. She led them up the entire way in The Roses and was solid when being nailed in the last 50 metres by her stable mate Youngstar (3). I think she was ridden forward last start as she had drawn barrier 12 and they had no other viable alternatives. This weekend she has barrier 2. I expect her to be ridden a little quieter, so she can see out the 2200 metres.
Another Waller runner is coming out of the South Australian Schweppes Oaks (Group 1). Savacool (4) was sent out favourite in that race and just seemed to struggle to get the 2000 metres. I may be wrong here, but she may struggle again – but you must always consider these Waller runners when he brings them to town.
Ciaron Maher has been noisy in the media all week talking up his chances of Aloisia (1) who comes off a solid run at Morphettville in the South Australian Schweppes Oaks. This race in recent years has been a good form line for this race so she cannot be overlooked. Damian Browne hops aboard for this run. I just am worried that her style of racing by getting back and swooping late may be inhibited by the Doomben track and the fact that the rail is out 4.5 metres. That aside she is a proven Group winner and she will have no trouble in getting the 2200 metres.
Coral Coast (10) is trained by Anthony Freedman. She ran a solid race in The Roses as well when she came from well back in the field and finished fourth.
Terra Sancta (11), from New Zealand and trained by Tony Pike, comes off a solid win at the Sunshine Coast over 1800 metres. She won her previous start at Ipswich prior to that over a mile. This is a similar preparation Pike gave his previous Oaks winner Provocative in 2016 – so this runner must be respected from this stable. Jim Byrne is aboard this filly and has ridden her in her past two wins.
Selections: 3-5-1-10 rough chances 4 & 11
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Race 9 Fred Best Classic Group 3
The last race is the Fred Best Classic at Group 3 level.
There are two standout selections in this race from runs in recent weeks – they are Whypeeo (2) and Perast (3).
Whypeeo (2) ran a track record when defeated by Champagne Cuddles (Race 7 – number 11) in the Gold Coast Guineas. That is a unique defeat for mine! He must be considered in this race even though he hasn’t a win over this distance in two starts!
Perast (3) won here last start in what could be described as arrogant fashion over the 1350 metres in a reasonable time considering the track was “soft”. Tim Clark bounced him out in front a set a solid tempo and he was too good for them.
I am not sure how this week will pan out as these two runners both like to lead and considering Whypeeo (2) has drawn wide in barrier 11 I expect that Jeff Lloyd may cross and take up the running. If that is the case I expect that Perast (3) will sit behind him and it may well be a war in the final 100 metres between these two runners. It is a tough ask to decide – but I think Perast (3) with the win over 1350 here last start may just be the edge to win the race. Look it is a toss of the coin. Maybe in true WINNO fashion we should bracket them both!
Sambro (6) won the Hawkesbury Guineas (Group 3) last start when he had a checked run in the straight and still prevailed. He comes here looking to confirm himself as a serious horse over the Brisbane Winter Carnival. He will definitely get the distance and probably will settle behind the leaders and hope they tire in the straight.
Marsupial (8) ran a nice second to Perast (3) last start. He was steady over the final 100 metres without threatening the leader who was too good. Tye Angland is aboard in the NSW Blue colours – sorry the Godolphin blue colours this weekend. He has ridden the gelding twice for two second placings. Can he improve his record and post a Group 3 win on the Street Cry gelding?
Selections: (3-2) – 6-8 rough chance 4 & 13
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like it is going to be a battle of the NSW based jockeys – Tim Clark and Kerrin McEvoy. I am going for a draw! We could see both lads ride a treble to continue the theme of the recent race meetings. They certainly both have a solid book of rides..
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,2,4,6 / 1,2,3,7,13 / 1,2,3,5,13 / 3,4,5 - cost is $300 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,3,7 / 1,2,8,9,11 / 1,3,5 / 2,3,6 - cost is $135 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,7 / 1,11 / 3,5 / 2,3 - cost is $16 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1 / 1,11 / 1,3 / 3 - cost is $4 to $11
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,2,8,9,11 / 1,3,5 / 2,3,6 - cost is $45 to $1
Value Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,11 / 3,5 / 2,3 - cost is $8 to $1
FLEMO and WINNO were in average form in our weekly tipping competition – we picked a few placings and overall it was a tough day. The Queenslander reigned supreme though – well done Josh!
Stay tuned this weekend for our thoughts on the Doomben program on Facebook on Saturday morning!
Good luck and good punting!
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