WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, JUNE 9, 2018
By Darren Winningham | Friday, June 8, 2018
DOOMBEN RACES SATURDAY 9 JUNE 2018 – UBET STRADBROKE DAY 2018
Doomben this week – the track has had a fortnight off to recover after the Oaks meeting where the meeting was halted, the rail moved, and we finished in darkness.
The weather arrived on Thursday morning in Brisbane with some heavy rains across the day. The track went from being rated from “GOOD” to “SOFT” to "HEAVY". The weather forecast for Friday and Saturday is equivocal. The track may get worse – make sure you check on Saturday morning!
The track is officially rated a heavy 8 (Friday) and the rail is in the normal position. This week we are starting early – 8 races only – looks like a day that will be over very quickly!
I attended the barrier drawer for Stradbroke on Wednesday – most of the favoured chances did end up drawing a barrier. Seems like we will have a great race this year.
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In WINNO news this week.
Just like to thank all the wonderful NSW supporters who have messaged me after NSW smashed the luckless QLD team on Wednesday night in Origin 1 in Melbourne. I must mention also those wonderful Queenslanders who sent me abusive messages and blamed the referees – the ground condition and not their rubbish performance!
I look forward to hearing from you all in Games 2 & 3!
To be fair, it was a good game that had skill from both teams – and wasn’t it great to see football being played rather than listening to the referee’s whistle all night?
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The opening race is a sprint over 1200 metres. It is a very open with $6 the field.
Some horses are backing up from a good sprint race last weekend at the Sunshine Coast – will they come up again this week?
Havasay (7) and Matthew McGillivray have an imposing record when they combine at Doomben. This gelding is now back with Liam Birchley. He was solid last start behind Tyzone with a massive weight. I like him when he gets down in the weights. He drops in weight going up to Listed grade but, you know what, I think he gets in well here.
Savanna Amour (2) is second up. She was used up early first up from a wide barrier.I think that this told at the end of the race. Since that run she has had a solid barrier trial that she won very well. She has a very good second up record and I think will be better suited over the 1200 metres.
The Mark Newnham stable is represented strongly here with Gibraltor Girl (14) who was very solid without luck last preparation in Group 3 races. She has had three barrier trials to get ready for this first up assignment. The last trial at Randwick was full of merit. Drawn well in barrier 6 – Tim Clark takes the ride – I think there are a few reasons to like this one. $8 on offer as well!
Peter & Paul Snowden have had a pretty good Carnival to date – they have Missile Coda (13) stepping out here. She led the whole way last start at Rosehill and kicked away and held them off. With the speed here from Gracida and Tarzan I think Brenton Avdulla will take a sit behind them and make his move late.
You must respect Kuro (1) as well. He comes out of the Ortensia Stakes (Listed) last start at Scone and this race has proved to be a good form race. He has a previous win here at Doomben as well.
A roughie here could be the Brian Smith Sony Legend. There were some excuses last start with him losing a plate in the running but he kept on coming late in the race. He can pop up in these races and loves speed on – he gets those conditions here this weekend.
Selections: 2-7-14-13 rough chance 1 and 11
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Race 2 The Wayne Wilson Mile (Listed)
Named after a wonderful Queensland race caller who had a unique and wonderful way to call a race. It is great that his memory is honoured each year on Stradbroke Day with this race!
It is a tough race this one – each year we normally see a nice type win the race as well.
Divine Unicorn (13) looked in need of the run last start second up over the mile. I am anticipating a much better performance this week now he is third up this preparation. The Matthew Dunn gelding lost a plate last start and appeared to be slightly disadvantaged. Brenton Avdulla takes the ride this weekend for the first time.
Anthony Freedman has A Shin Rook (11) and Exocet (15) in the race. I think the run last weekend of A Shin Rook (11) in the last race at the Sunshine Coast suggests that he needed that hit out. He flew home late and this week, stepping up to a mile, will suit this ex-Japanese runner. Jim Byrne resumes his association with this one. Watch out for this one at some odds!
Sheiswhatsheis (14) loves the mile at Doomben – she normally races on the speed and she has 6 victories here. Jeff Lloyd partnered her last start in the Lord Mayor’s Cup (Group 3) and I think that run was very good. She led as usual and ended up being a sitting duck for the more seasoned horses.
This week she comes back to Listed company and she may be able to take up the running drawn in barrier 3. There are two other notable leaders here in Dreams Aplenty (4) and Ecuador (5) – these runners may take her on – alternatively Brisbane’s leading rider Jeff Lloyd may change his tactics this weekend and settle her back and let them go.
Coldstone (9) from the Michael Kent stables has had two good runs in Brisbane – each time just battling on but giving the impression that he is getting better each start.
Magstock (10) is my roughie this race trained by Kelly Schweida and second up for the new stable after being sent to Australia from Singapore. His first up run looked better on the video that what you see in the form guides. He raced in an unsuitable 1350 metres first up in the BRC Sprint (Group 3) and swooped home wide – late and hard.
This weekend he steps to the more suitable mile. I think you will see the best of him around 2000 metres, however, with the speed that I anticipate here, he could be a genuine chance at around $20. He has a very good second up record as well and local rider Matthew McGillivray is in the saddle.
Selections: 13-11-14-9 rough chance 10
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Race 3 Queensland Guineas (Group 2) – 1600 metres
The 2018 Queensland Guineas – a large field and plenty of chances. The races are getting harder each race!
I think the Fred Best (Group 3) is the form race for the Guineas. Assimilate (2) from the Snowden team was a gallant second behind Perast (engaged in the Stradbroke). He was flashing home late over 1350 metres in that race with James McDonald in the saddle.
He was held up for a short period entering the straight in that race and McDonald was forced to ease and look for an alternate path and then, when he balanced up again, he stormed home The team remains the same this weekend and although he is drawn wide in barrier 12 I think he will settle back and come with a run again late – I just hope that Jay Mac can get an uninterrupted run this weekend.
Darren Weir trains Peaceful State (1) who comes to Queensland after two solid wins at Morphettville – the last win was in the South Australian Guineas (Listed) over a mile. He came hard fast and late in that run.
He has been freshened by Weir since that win – a month off. He worked well in a recent barrier trial over 1100 metres at Werribee. You must respect this runner and Weir seems to be able to plot a competitive path for his horses, so they peak for these big races. One that cannot be left out.
Sambro (3) comes off an impressive Hawkesbury Guineas (Group 3) win. He has had 6 weeks between runs and was scratched a fortnight ago when nominated in Brisbane. Maybe it was just the track as he is a duffer on wet surfaces. This weekend he will get a good hard surface that should suit him well. Michael Walker loves to ride winners in big races and he takes the ride here.
Seaway (7) is the third of the runners and ran over 1400 metres last start coming back from a win over 1500 metres the start prior. I think that the run over 1400 metres at Rosehill demonstrated that he needs further and will be happy to see the mile here this weekend. Three weeks between runs – and with the master Blake Shinn debuting in Brisbane for the first time over the Winter Carnival – you must be wary of this runner. Shinn has ridden this Ocean Park colt twice for a win and a second. There has been solid support for this runner as well $12 into $7 in the early markets!
Selections: 2-1-3-7
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Race 4 2018 Brisbane Cup (Group 2) – 2200 metres
A small field for the Brisbane Cup this year.
I like the Waller runner – Naval Warfare (9), who was run down late in the McKell Cup (Listed) last start at Randwick over 2400 metres. I think he will be better suited over the shorter 2200 metres and will be competitive here this weekend.
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott have Sedanzer (5) backing up this weekend after an impressive effort a fortnight ago in the Lord Mayor’s Cup (Group 3) when she was caught wide and obliged to race three deep in that race. This she has drawn barrier 1 and they may elect to race forward and take a sit behind Naval Warfare (9) who I expect to lead.
The topweight is Ambitious (1) from the Anthony Freedman team and he has raced in Group 1 company his four starts since resuming from a spell. He has been transferred from Japan to Australia and he seems to be hitting his straps. The last run in the Doomben Cup was full of merit and he seemed a little unlucky around the 200 metre mark when he was held up and seemed to shift out before making some ground on the Waller trained pair Comin’ Through and Egg Tart who peeled off and fought out the race finish.
Selections: 9-5-1-6
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Race 5 UBET 2018 Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1)
The feature race of the Brisbane Carnival and it appears early in the program.
This race starts our Quaddie this week as well.
I think I will just go down the page on the ones I think have a chance.
Let’s start with the defending 2017 Champion – the Godolphin runner Impending (1) - in the royal blue colours! Maybe a good omen after the mighty NSW win on Wednesday night! Damian Browne has been aboard this Lonhro stallion since he made the trip north to Brisbane.
The last start win in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup was full of arrogance – looming up and then putting his opposition away in the final 50 metres. The handicap conditions of this race may be the only way he can be stopped – but wow, you cannot go past his consistent impressive form in Queensland over the Carnival. I am certain that strapper Michael Harry will be tickled pink if his favourite horse salutes on the weekend!
Ana Lane (2) I think may be the forgotten runner in this year’s field. He will handle all surfaces and I thought the win in the Goodwood (Group 1) at Morphettville was outstanding. I think drawn handy in barrier 3 he should not get too far back and his strong finish will be blistering and may just catch them all napping. Jockey Ben Melham has a strong association with this runner with 8 rides for 3 wins.
The Liam Birchley trained Crack Me Up (3) is another one at massive odds. He has had a nine-week break since his poor run in the Doncaster (Group 1) back in April. Whilst there have been no official barrier trials for this runner he always races well fresh and gets in well at the weights for this run. Jim Byrne is looking for his second Straddy winner – he rode Adam in 1999. That was nearly nearly years ago (He will probably make some humorous comment it is the same length of time since NSW has won a State of Origin series).
Spieth (6) was sensational in the Doomben 10,000 when he flashed home late and hit the line powerfully a month ago. He has fared poorly in the barrier drawer getting barrier at 21 – but if he gets any luck in running I really think the 1350 metres will suit him down to the ground. I think this would be Hayes & Dabernig’s first ever Stradbroke winner if he salutes!
Foxplay (7) is trained by the Waller juggernaut team who always seem to have a dominant Brisbane Winter Carnival. This Foxwedge mare comes out of the Queen of the Turf race at Randwick and that race has been very strong for form. She ran a nice race with a massive weight in the Glenlogan Park (Group 2) a fortnight ago.
Whilst she appeared to just run home fairly she is a class mare who has a strong second up record. She does have superior form on wet surfaces and, with the weight conditions for this race, she is well treated. Another solid ride as well for Michael Walker.
Burning Passion (12) - short and sweet here. If the track gets into the heavy range this Northern Meteor gelding will be right in this! I would think trainer Mark Newnham and jockey Michael Cahill will be doing a rain dance at Doomben to get the track wet!
Perast (15), from the Paul Perry stables at Newcastle, will be ridden by local jockey Jeff Lloyd in his attempt to score his maiden Group 1 Stradbroke victory – won’t that send the historians into a frenzy if he is able to win this race! Not to mention that Lloyd is wasting for the first time in many years to get down to ride the Snitzel colt at 50 kilograms. This is the first time since riding in Australia that he will ride at this weight.
This colt has been fabulous in his two runs at Doomben over the 1350 metres. His last win in the Fred Best (Group 3) was described as “tough” by Tim Clark as he dismounted. He was taken on in front and just kept on going. I think that this runner could be very hard to run down and will be likely leader in this race.
I think that under these conditions and given he races well with the sting out of the ground he will be thereabouts when the judge calls a halt to the race. I am just concerned with his Group 1 form – with two starts for no placings.
Champagne Cuddles (16) has drawn barrier 1 and gives the Bjorn Baker filly and Corey Brown a few options in the running. I think she will be placed in the top 6 or 7 in the running and will be looking to surge late. I remember when she won the Gold Coast Guineas (Group 3) that Bjorn Baker told me that she could be the best he has ever trained! A big wrap as he has had some nice horses over the years.
Corey Brown was buoyant returning to scale after a solid third in the Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1) two weeks ago suggesting that “it was a solid run second up”. I think that she will derive some benefit from that run and should be ultra-competitive here this weekend.
It could well be an historic Stradbroke – with the three-year old’s dominating if they get any luck.
No matter who you like they will need some luck and don’t let me sway you away from one that you may like!
Selections: 16-15-1-7 rough chances 2,3 and 12
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Race 6 J. J. Atkins Plate (Group 1)
The youngsters step our here for a Group 1 event over 1600 metres.
Chris Waller has a mortgage on this race.
The Chris Waller Zousain (2) debuted in Brisbane with a BANG winning the Champagne Classic (Group 2) over 1200 metres. Then was beaten by his stable mate Lean Mean Machine (1) in the Sires Produce (Group 2) after leading that field.
Post-race the jockey Kerrin McEvoy was disappointed with his ride as he felt he was forced to go forward and used a fair bit of petrol up in taking up the lead. I think that if James McDonald, who takes over this weekend, settles him back from barrier 12 I think we will see the best form of this runner.
The stablemate was wonderful in Sydney last start – The Autumn Sun (5). He posted his second career win from as many starts at Randwick and looked like a mile would be right up his alley. Waller has a habit of debuting these nice ones late in Sydney and bringing them to Brisbane for a killing come Carnival time and this runner seems to fit the bill. Kerrin McEvoy assumes his association with this runner this weekend and will be keenly looking to ride another Group 1 winner in Brisbane.
Lean Mean Machine (1) emerged from the cloud last start in the Sires Produce (Group 2) – he certainly will like any speed on and will appreciate the mile. Corey Brown will be looking for back to back Group 1 victories on the program.
This could be a unique Waller trifecta in a Group 1 race in Brisbane!
David Hayes and Tom Dabernig have Fundamentalist (11) entered. This filly charged home late in the Group 3 UBET Sires Produce in Adelaide last start – do not let this one get under your guard. The mile will suit her! She has drawn well and has had some serious support firming from $15 into $8 in the early markets.
Locally trained Sizzling Ace (14) was well backed last start – firming sensationally in a well-orchestrated plunge. The Toby Edmonds runner ran a nice race and I think fourth up from a spell could be a chance at odds! Glyn Schofield stays aboard her this weekend.
Selections: 5-2-1-11 rough chances 12 and 14
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Race 7 Queensland Derby (Group 1)
Can the filly Youngstar (16) beat the boys in the Derby? She has drawn terribly in barrier 21. She was placed awkwardly last run in the Queensland Oaks (Group 1) looked like she became unbalanced and did a few things wrong, but did she come with a late rush and put them away under the urgings of Kerrin McEvoy! She loves wet tracks and she is going to get those conditions again this weekend now the rain that has hit Queensland.
There a couple of other lightly raced runners that look like genuine chances. One that has my attention is Live and Free (7) from the John O’Shea stables who won well last start at Randwick over 2000 metres. The run was great making ground late and rushing away over the final stages. He has won both of his last two starts and on both occasions has exhibited a sustained sprint from the 300 metres that makes him an ideal type of runner on this Doomben track … if he shows that trait again. The real business end of this race in recent years has been in the final 200 metres and those who have a powerful finish at the end usually reign supreme!
I have been a fan of the top weight Dark Dream (1) for a few weeks to win the Derby. I was a little concerned with the last run, however, I think we can overlook that run. I think that this Kerry Parker trained gelding likes the softer ground and may have been at a distinct disadvantage last start when he lost a plate in running. I just think that this may have been the reason why he appeared flat in the final 100 metres. He is drawn nicely and will race on the speed with NSW lad Tim Clark aboard again this week.
Darren Weir has a very interesting runner – Lucky For All (11). Just forget the run last start at Sandown when he was sent out a very short priced favourite. He was held up from the 400-metre mark and never got out of fourth gear and went to the line hard held under a massive weight.
The run was probably no more than a track canter and he will be fresh and ready to show his strong form here in this Group 1 event. Until this disappointing run he had been working through his grades quite well stringing together a hat track of wins. There has been some confident support for this runner firming from $10 to $6 in the markets.
The other Weir runner – Heavenly Thought (2) was dominant last start here in the Grand Prix (Group 3) when settling back and making a sprint to just overpower Han Xin (8) in the shadows of the post. He has drawn gate 1 here this weekend and Brad Rawiller is coming to Doomben to partner him again with nearly an unblemished strike rate on the horse (3 rides – 2 wins and 1 second). This runner has been well backed as well firming from $9 to $6.
Han Xin (8) will take up the lead again as he likes to race this way. He may have to use some petrol to get across from his wide gate - number 18 - but he will set the tempo in front
I think a few of these runners will start their runs entering the Doomben straight – the winner will probably come from the one who gets the most luck in running in this capacity field. The jockeys will be looking for these youngsters to get a clear run and keep their momentum.
There is a runner here at some odds – Banner Season (14) from the Kris Lees stable at Newcastle. Despite just winning a restricted grade race at Ipswich last start he ran some nice time at 2.14.80 which does nearly equate to a similar winning time that Heavenly Thought (2) posted in the Grand Prix Stakes.
Selections: 7-1-16-11 rough chances 2,8 and 14
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Race 8 – 2018 Dane Ripper – Group 2
The last race of the day on a shortened program. We will be home in time for the footy or the Rugby!
Moss Trip (9) from the Peter & Paul Snowden stables has won her last two starts and since the last win a month ago at Scone in the 3YO Inglis has won a barrier trial impressively. She has drawn shockingly in barrier 15, however, she does like to race back in the field and make a late dash. If Brenton Avdulla can get her in and get some cover in the running I think she will be in the finish.
The top weight is Prompt Response (1) from the Waterhouse yards - what can I say? She cannot draw a barrier and she is the class runner of this field. She has had an eight-week spell since a very good run in the Queen of the Turf (Group 1) at Randwick. Prior to that her run in the Coolmore (Group 1) at Rosehill was awesome. These races have produced several winners in recent weeks.
I would nearly declare her as a special in this field if she had not drawn barrier 16. She has had a nice trial a fortnight ago to get her ready for this run – Blake Shinn stays aboard here – I think that at around the $14 she is a great each way chance.
I tipped Pedrena (5) in the Glenlogan Park (Group 3) last start. Jockey Michael Dee scooted along the rail – the fastest way home - in what was arguably an eleven out of ten ride! That run probably places her in good stead for this race this weekend.
Invincibella (11) was runner up to Pedrena (5) last start. She was beaten on merit but still looks well placed here.
Some roughies for your exotic bets – O’Rachael (15) who was awkward out of the gates last start and then was sent forward to take up a position and still ran a solid race. I think if she can jump away cleanly and Jeff Lloyd can hold her up for one last sprint at them she is in with a serious chance at the odds of around $25.
The other one I like is Platinum Angel (17) who went around last weekend at the Sunshine Coast and was beaten by The Monstar (Race 5 - 9) in the Moreton Cup (Group 2). The run was better than it looked. She was belted around at the start and checked and then struggled to get into a rhythm in the race.
Chris Parnham from Western Australia has been booked by the Weir team to ride her this week. This bloke has been to Queensland before and won races – he can ride, and she will be well suited by Chris’s riding style.
So that is it for Straddy Day 2018 - good luck – and may your wallets be full at the end of the day!
Selections: 9-1-5-11 rough chances 15 and 17
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like it is going to be a battle of the NSW based jockeys – James McDonald and Brenton Avdulla. I am going for the current NSW metropolitan jockey premiership leader – Brenton Avdulla. His first weekend in Brisbane for the Carnival and with a nice book of rides he may just sneak home in what could be a closely fought contest.
Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)
1,2,7,13,14 / 9,11,13,14 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,5,9 - cost is $240 to $1
Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
1,3,7,15,16 / 1,2,5,11 / 1,2,7,11,16 / 1,5,9,11,17 - cost is $500 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
1,15,16 / 1,2,5 / 1,7,16 / 1,5,9 - cost is $81 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8
1,16 / 2,5 / 1,7,16 / 1,9 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
1,2,5,11 / 1,2,7,11,16 / 1,5,9,11,17 - cost is $100 to $1
Value Treble (races 6 to 8)
2,5 / 1,7,16 / 1,9 - cost is $12 to $1
FLEMO and WINNO were in reasonable form last weekend in our tipping competition – I think it was a win to WINNO like NSW on Wednesday! Stay tuned this weekend for our thoughts on the Doomben program on Facebook on Saturday morning!
Good luck and good punting!
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