WINNO'S WINNERS: IPSWICH, JUNE 16, 2018
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, June 14, 2018
Well we are heading west to the Ipswich course on Saturday for the next instalment of the Winter Carnival.
The track is rated “SOFT” (Thursday) and the rail will be in the true position this weekend for the entire track. The weather forecast is looking equivocal over the coming days – the track may be further rain affected with showers forecast on Thursday and Friday. It will pay you to check out the conditions on Saturday morning.
In WINNO news this week.
Bart Sinclair was awarded an Order of Australia (OAM) medal on Monday in the Queen’s Birthday Honours’ List on Monday. He is a legend in racing in Queensland and a well-deserved recipient of this prestigious award.
Then you have the French Open last weekend coming to an end with the winner Rafael Nadal winning his 11th title. There are some statistics behind this win that astounded WINNO – 415 wins on clay surfaces and this one is a real trivia buff statistic … when Rafa wins the first set on a clay surface he wins. Well, the statistic is that this has occurred 95 times in his career!
Tommy Berry has announced he is coming back to Australia after his successful stint in Hongkers. He cites that his family just have not settled in in the area and will be back in Australia shortly. He is a real talent and will be based in Sydney. I am sure we will see him back riding winners not long after he lands and gets settled again. Maybe we may be fortunate to see him over the Brisbane Summer Carnival later in the year riding up here.
Well it is time to get into the preview this weekend. Just a word of caution. This meeting over the years has been perilous for punters with roughies featuring across the day. I would be betting with some caution – especially with some of these massive fields.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Tough race to open the program. This is a real lottery!
I think the Liam Birchley trained Fit For Purpose (6) is the way to go here. His run at in the Listed race at the Sunshine Coast was nice. Back in grade here and with Matty McGillivray aboard I think I may have something on him each way.
Matthew Dunn from Murwillumbah has had a quiet Carnival this year. He has two genuine chances here with Dia de Reyes (8) and Pegapus (16) engaged. Dia de Reyes (8) comes off a first up win at Rosehill at Rosehill over 1200 metres. He has a great second up record and despite drawing a little wide he will handle a wet track. Jim Byrne who loves this Ipswich track is aboard.
The other runner is Pegapus (16) to be ridden by Larry Cassidy. She is second up as well – and has two previous wins here at the track. She also will not mind the sting out of the track and is drawn nicely in barrier 6. Last start she was sent out favourite at the Gold Coast over 1200 metres. Her form is better over this type of distance (1350 metres). I think you should look for a dramatic improvement here.
A Mist Opportunity (12) will be ridden by Bobby El-Issa for visiting trainer Andrew Noblet and gets her first look at the Ipswich track. She worked home nicely last start in a Group 3 race at Morphettville. She normally settles back in the field and makes a late run. I’m not sure if that style of racing will suit the Ipswich track, however, she is dropping back in class and must be considered.
Alassak (4) is from the Stuart Kendrick yards at the Sunshine Coast. He loves this Ipswich track with 3 starts for 2 wins. He will lead this field and I expect, from barrier 3, that jockey Tiffani Brooker will surge him out of the barriers and set up an even tempo and see if she can hold on in that final 50 metres when the others all make their bids for glory!
Selections: 6-8-12-4 rough chance 16
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Race 2
Well they don’t get any easier these races. This is another tough one!
Endless Days (3) is a nice type who has some strong form on wet tracks and at Ipswich. This Lilivale Stud runner, trained by Will & Peter Hulbert, resumed last start here over an unsuitable 1350 metres. Stepping up to a mile this weekend is probably still short of his best – however, if the track is wet it will probably race like an 1800 metre race which this gelding thrives over. He is drawn handy and if he wins watch for the jubilation in and around the winner’s stalls, especially from part owner and breeder Jennie Barr who just loves to see her horses win!
The New Zealand runner Time Lord ran over 2200 metres last start in the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes. I do not think he saw out the distance and back to a mile where he has won previously will suit him down to the ground. He won’t mind the wet track either. Interestingly Brisbane’s premier rider Jeff Lloyd has taken the ride this week.
Denbern (8) is trained on the Gold Coast by Scott Morrisey and he looks at the Ipswich track for the first time in his career. Two starts ago he was dominant winning at the Gold Coast in a good quality race over 1800 metres with Ryan “Wiggo” Wiggins aboard. Last start at Doomben he ran a solid race behind Sabkhat (1) when beaten just over a length. Wiggo climbs back aboard – if the track remains in the soft range I think he is a nice chance.
Sabkhat (1) from the Steven O’Dea stable won last start at Doomben one month ago. This seven-year-old gelding loves the wet track and likes his runs to be spaced apart. O’Dea has given him a solid barrier trial on 31 May which he won easily on a soft track. He has a monster weight of 62.5 kilograms allocated – but will get 2 kilograms off for apprentice Jag Guthmann-Chester who rode his to victory a month ago.
Again, Matthew Dunn has a few runners here. I think the best of his runners are Realing (12) and Zamex (14). Realing (12) comes off a loss at his home track at Murwillumbah when he carried the grand stand – 63.5 kilograms. He has a wonderful record third up – with 2 wins to his credit. He is third up this weekend and may be worth each way ticket at the nice odds of $12.
His stable mate is Zamex (14) has won previously here at Ipswich and the wetter the track the better his chances. Keep your eye on this one if the track gets downgraded any further – Corey Brown is aboard for this race.
Selections: 3-6-8-1 rough chance 12 and 14
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Race 3
A race for the 2-year old’s over 1100 metres.
Again, a massive field with 16 runners nominated. Anything can happen!
Not a race I am keen on to be honest so let’s make it short and sweet. Go to the bar and have a drink or grab some lunch whilst this race is on! Save you money!
I may have put the mocks on Matthew McGillivray – he is probably going to unfriend me and block me on Facebook after I now tip him to win the first three races!
Liam Birchley has a Show A Heart gelding - Spot On Spud - second up here after winning on debut at Toowoomba at $17. That run looked impressive I think that he will be able to perform again from the nice barrier. He is nice odds at $26 and if he can handle a soft track I think we may see another rough result!
Tullio (7) from the formidable team of Tony Gollan and Jim Byrne comes back to Ipswich after winning here last start at a midweek meeting a fortnight ago. That was his third start and he has been not out of the money in all three starts. He will be very competitive.
Michael Nolan trains Unconditional (8) who saluted at his home track at Toowoomba last start. This Jet Spur colt looks well placed here as well and will be ridden by Boris Thornton – with a 3-kilogram claim that should come in handy. He will probably race on the speed or just behind it and this style of racing generally holds them in good stead at this Ipswich track.
The top weight is Parko (1) from the Scott Morrisey stables – with Ryan Wiggins again aboard. This Smart Missile gelding won at the Gold Coast ten days ago and backs up here. This team could get a race to race double with any luck on the day!
The Fire Trap (6) has been unfortunate with a wide barrier draw – barrier 16. Matthew Dunn trains this wonderfully bred Sizzling gelding who won on debut here over this distance. I would have nearly put this runner on top is he had drawn a barrier.
Selections: 5-7-8-1 rough chance 6
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Race 4
The 2018 Provincial Stayers final over 2150 metres. This is a race that always seems to turn up a win for the bookies with a roughie winning each year … so watch out!
I think Matthew Dunn may have the winner here in Ready For Danger (4). I wonder if this horse was written up as a message for the Queensland Maroons’ team when they travel to Sydney on Sunday 14 June to face NSW on their home territory – DANGER! – DANGER!
This runner will be ridden by Jim Byrne and has drawn very well in barrier 2. He has won his last two starts at the Gold Coast very impressively – one on a good track and the other a heavy track so I am confident he should handle whatever surface he has to endure this weekend.
There are two runners coming back in grade here from the Group 3 Grand Prix Stakes last start. They are the Toby Edmonds trained Evolo (14) and the Chris Munce trained Lucky Jackson (15). They both ran a solid race in that race last start. Clearly, they were both outclassed, but they drop back dramatically in grade this weekend. It would not surprise me that one of these two runners create an upset in what is a very open race.
Ben Currie trains Kay Kay Boy (6) who is the pre-post favourite and is coming off a nice win at Gatton last start. Bobby El-Issa is in the saddle and he loves to win and show off after the race – maybe here is his first chance on Ipswich Cup Day 2018.
Selections: 4-14-15-6
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Race 5
I like the Robert Heathcote runner who is first up here this week from barrier one after a sensational barrier trial which he won by 7 lengths. Don’t Leave Me Out (15) is around $6 and Heathcote has given the ride to Mark Du Plessis who won on him in that impressive trial win.
Last preparation this runner could be considered unlucky in three runs finishing as the bridesmaid in each of those starts. Each time he was competitive - these runs were on soft and heavy tracks – so he ticks a few boxes here.
Miss Exfactor (1), from the Gollan stables, has found a purple patch of form. She has returned from a spell and has won both of her starts – the last start winning nicely at the Sunshine Coast over 1000 metres. I think the big weight this week may bring her back to the opposition, but I expect her still to be in the finish when the judge calls a halt to the race.
I was at the Gold Coast when Perfect Style (6) made his debut for the Will & Peter Hulbert stable. On that occasion he led easily, kicked hard in the straight and won when ridden by Michael Hellyer. Since that run he has won his next two starts for the new stable and each time “Muppy” Hellyer has been aboard. Barrier 7 and some okay form on soft tracks - I would not be surprised if this one gets home at some nice odds – around the $21 mark. Hellyer is a very underrated jockey who rides very well and does have great success on this Ipswich track.
Black Chilli (4) is a NSW invader (we can win anything!) from the Glenda Markwell stables. He has won his last two starts and comes to Queensland for his first start here looking to claim a hattrick of wins. Dean Yendall is in the saddle. I am just not too sure how he may handle a wet or chopped up surface!
Envy of All (9) is another NSW runner from the Kris Lees stables at Newcastle who was a gallant second to Miss Exfactor (1) last start. I don’t think she would have beaten the winner, however, she may have suffered second up syndrome and will be better suited here this weekend. There were some hard luck stories out of the run at the Sunshine Coast being held up and losing momentum in the straight – maybe she can turn the tables on here more fancied opposition this weekend!
Selections: 15-1-6-9 rough chance 4
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Race 6
Another massive field with 18 nominations. The first leg of the Quaddie – this could knock a few of us out!
Well my old mate Oink (9) goes around again – trained by Kelly Schweida and part owned by Grant Bell. Now it usually occurs when WINNO does not turn up to the track he wins! Such a pig of a horse after all – that is how I believe he got his name.
Now I have been guilty of sledging Mr Bell in recent months in my weekly tip preview. I have been warned by his lovely wife to steer clear of bagging her! So, I will not say anything much about her! Well maybe just a little bit. She is a lovely lady that Keiley-Anne Bell – so much that she has been to Bangkok recently to have some minor surgery. Yes, she has done it people – she has removed her second head as she wants to support the mighty NSW BLUES. She has finally seen the blue moon and the light (this is going to get me in so much trouble) but, as I will be hiding 122 kilometres away at Kilcoy this weekend she won’t be able to get me!
Back to the horse – Oink (9) just seemed to be out of sorts in the last few runs. A wet track with some solid tempo on, down in the weights and back to 1200 metres … I think he must win this weekend, otherwise there will be no bacon and eggs for me Sunday morning at Banyo!
Manias (5) is resuming here from a spell. He has had 2 solid trials for the Heathcote stable. He also has the services of Jimmy Orman who has a tremendous strike rate on the Denman gelding (7 rides – 4 wins and 2 placings). He normally races well fresh and loves a soft track and has drawn well. He is a threat in this race.
Sword of Justice (2) is from the Ben Currie stables. He led easy last start at Doomben and kicked clear in the straight and was run down in the final bound by Tyzone. Taylor Marshall stays aboard the gelding and he does race well on wet tracks.
Prioritise (10) is a horse from the Steve Tregea stables that I just cannot catch. Michael Hellyer gets aboard this Rothesay gelding this weekend for the first time ever. He has run well second up in the past without winning. He does thrive on soft tracks and I am sure Hellyer will be trying to lift this one over the line here at Ipswich to help WINNO get off to a winning start in his Quaddie.
The mudlark of the field is the Toby Edmonds trained Inspired Estelle (16) who raced in a Listed race at the Sunshine Coast last start and dropped out without threatening. If the track gets into the heavy range this Edmonds runner will certainly come into the race. But, as usual, it seems the barrier gods have frowned on the Edmonds stable – she has drawn barrier 17. Jeff Lloyd may as well start on the freeway leading out of Ipswich – she will need some luck from out there!
Selections: 9-5-2-10 rough chance 16
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Race 7 2018 Ipswich Cup (Listed)
The Cup - a Listed staying race over the 2150 metres.
A small field here. I think we may have to take a good look at the form out of the P.J.O’Shea Stakes (Group 2) at the Sunshine Coast a fortnight ago that was won by the Chris Waller trained Egg Tart.
In that race Tradesman (2) ran a nice second – but that was run at WFA conditions. This week he gets in well with a lighter weight with the Quality conditions of this race. He ran second to Egg Tart without threatening, but he did hit the line strongly.
The other runner that I like is Smart As You Think (10) who comes out of the same race. She meets Tradesman (2) considerably better at the weights here at Ipswich. I think that this runner will appreciate the sting out of the ground as well. It maybe time to add an Ipswich Cup winner to his repertoire for jockey Jimmy Orman!
First Crush (7) is the Munce Racing runner. He grows webbed feet when he smells rain or sees a wet track. So if the track does deteriorate do not leave this runner out of your exotics.
My Giuliano (5) represents the Chris Waller team. Waller just keeps on winning feature races over the Carnival – will he had another feature Cup to his long list of winners in Queensland in 2018? This runner is third up and he has won previously third up. He is another runner who thrives on wet tracks – in fact the wetter the better! Michael Cahill has a good record on this Choisir five-year-old gelding. He could be one at odds to knock out the more favoured runners!
Selections: 2-10-7-5 rough chance 1
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Race 8 2018 Eyeliner Stakes
The time-honoured Ipswich sprint that always draws a good field each year!
I was a little buoyant the other week and declared that Tyzone (11) now with the Edmonds stables on the Gold Coast would win a Group race over the Carnival. Whilst this is not a Group race it is one that he is favourably weighted in and he has drawn well in barrier 3 and has had a three-week break since his last run.
He has won on soft and heavy tracks and at around the $5 mark I think he is a great bet each way all day! Jeff Lloyd is aboard again this week – he has a 100% strike rate on this Written Tycoon gelding who has an amazing record of 21 starts for 13 wins. I am keen!
I’m A Rippa (7) was all over a winner at the Sunshine Coast in the Listed Spear Chief over 1400 metres – he was just run down in the final few strides. Maybe that last 50 metres was the downfall. Slightly back in distance this week and his stable rider Jim Byrne aboard (bloody Queenslander) he may be able to get his first win in this gelding!
Moss ‘N’ Dale (4) has some good wet track form in Victoria and comes to Ipswich off a nice win at Flemington over 1400 metres. Anthony Darmanin comes to Ipswich to ride the Peter Gelagotis trained gelding – he has a great association with him with 8 rides for 4 wins and 2 placings. There has been some early market support for this runner since the markets opened firming from $6 to $4.80.
Chris Waller trains Religify (2) who resumes here after a 33-week spell. This runner loves to lead and bowl along in front and I think these are the tactics that Corey Brown will adopt here – he might just be too difficult to run down in the end! He has a solid trial at Rosehill on a soft track which he won easily before being sent north to the Waller Gold Coast stables.
He could surprise all his opposition here and he does have a touch of class on his side. I remember around the same time last year where he dominated in two races in Brisbane – the first being the Wayne Wilson Mile (Listed) and then G.H.Mumm (Listed). Just watch out for this runner!
Selections: 11-7-2-4 rough chances 6 & 10
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Race 9 2018 Gai Waterhouse Classic
If you are alive in the Quaddie come this race – should you cash out or look to win a motza?
Another massive field of 18 nominated with only 16 to go around. A Listed race for fillies and mares anything could happen!
I am tipping Plucky Girl (2) this weekend – she has finally drawn a barrier after her Tamworth Cup win 6 weeks ago! She has won previously here as well so I think that places her in a good position compared to some of the other runners who are having their first look at the Ipswich track.
Pomelo (7) was run down last start in the shadows of the post at the Sunshine Coast. She was heavily supported in that run in all the pre-post markets and she just missed out. I just wonder if she can run a strong 1350 metres out. If there is a track bias and leaders start to dominate she will be right in the race!
The Darren Weir trained Platinum Angel (7) flew home late last start when defeated by the Monstar at the Sunny Coast. The way she wound up over the final 100 metres suggests that she was looking for further and she gets that here this weekend.
Our Beebee (11) is trained up the hill in Toowoomba. I have always had an opinion of this Red Dazzler mare – but she hasn’t fired in recent starts. She loves soft tracks and she should get those conditions this weekend.
Mark Du Plessis stays aboard her again this weekend after partnering her at the Sunshine Coast where I thought her run was okay. She may be one as some nice odds ($25) to blow the opposition out of the water in the last!
Crystal Fountain (8) I think did not appreciate the wet track at the Sunshine Coast. If the track does get better and we have no rain this Anthony Freedman runner will certainly firm in the markets and be very competitive.
Selections: 2-9-7-11 rough chances 8
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Jockey Challenge
I think this weekend could be a battle supreme – Jeff Lloyd and Jim Byrne. I am betting a tie! If you are looking for a dark horse have a little something on Matthew McGillivray – he has been quiet in recent weeks – he is due to hit back with a BANG!
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,3,6,8,12 / 1,5,7,8 / 4,14,15 / 1,6,9,15 - cost is $240 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,5,9,10 / 2,7,10 / 2,4,7,11 / 2,7,9,11 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,5,9 / 2,10 / 2,7,11 / 2,7,9 - cost is $54 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
5,9 / 2,10 / 11 / 2,7 - cost is $8 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,7,10 / 2,4,7,11 / 2,7,9,11 - cost is $48 to $1
Value Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,10 / 7,11 / 2,7 - cost is $8 to $1
WINNO v FLEMO
Well last weekend FLEMO gave me a towelling in our tipping competition on a day where we both had mixed results! I should have stayed with my heart instead of looking for value. But credit where credit is due the Queenslander reigned supreme! On behalf of all HRO readers I would like to wish Gabrielle and Josh all the best with the impending birth of their first child in the coming weeks!
Good luck and good punting!
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