WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 5, 2018

By Darren Winningham | Wednesday, July 4, 2018

GRAFTON CUP CARNIVAL 2018 - DAY 1

Well I am heading to the wonderful State of NSW people.

The sun is shining – the birds are chirping, and we own the State of Origin shield in 2018! How good is it being back in the NSW BLUES State!

I just love coming to this Carnival each year!

This is my 32nd consecutive Grafton Carnival!

Let’s hope for the CRJC’s CRJC Executive Officer Michael Beattie and Chairman Graeme Green that the weather is wonderful, and the Carnival has great attendance!

Day one is the traditional “Westlawn Finance Prelude Day” where there is free entry and you come dressed in black and gold. It features the John Carlton Cup and the Westlawn Finance Grafton Cup Prelude race!

The track is currently rated “SOFT” (on Wednesday) and the rail is out 3 metres from the winning post to the 1600 metres and then 3 metres from the 1200 metres to the winning post.

Well it is time – a seven race program – massive fields with representation from Queensland, wider NSW and local stables.

The preview it going to be difficult – but WINNO is here to have a crack! Keep your eyes open for a good old traditional Grafton plunge – these happen regularly over the Carnival. I have looked at the fields for today and there looks like some stables and horses may launch into a few of their chances!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

**************************************************************************************************

Race 1

We start the day with a massive field of two-year old’s. Some of these are unraced – so it may be worthwhile keeping your eye on any market movers leading up to the race.

Two of the unraced brigade that I have found that have impressed me come from some stables that have been in solid form of late.

The first one is Best Foot Forward (6) from the Matthew Dunn stables up the road at Murwillumbah. This Mahisara filly ran a solid trial at Lismore 3 weeks ago and she won in a reasonable time. She looks like a ready-made runner - however, she is drawn a little wide in barrier 13.

The other runner is from the Toby Edmonds stables on the Gold Coast who cracked 100 winners for the season last weekend. Whymelo (12) has drawn the rails and she won a barrier trial at Doomben on a soft surface.

The run in that trial was solid and she ran good time. Jimmy Orman has packed his bags and loaded them into his Holden ute and is making the three-hour trip south to ride a few for the Edmonds stables on Day 1 of the Carnival – maybe he will be back later in the Carnival. He has been in wonderful form of late. Last weekend he dominated the program at the Sunshine Coast with a winning treble!

Neanderthal (4) is from the Neil Osborne stables at Sutton near Canberra and regular stable rider Billy Owen comes north to ride this first start gelding who was impressive on the synthetic track trial at Canberra running a nice second. He has drawn badly in barrier 16 but hopefully he will be able to get in from out there and take a sit behind the speed in the race.

Tony Gollan has brought Casual Witness (7) down from Brisbane and has engaged Ben Looker (based in Grafton) to ride this first start Star Witness filly. Ben always seems to have a great Carnival and is a very astute rider and I am sure he will have some success over the 2018 Carnival. This filly, who has drawn nicely in barrier 5, won a trial last week at Doomben – keep your eye on this one for any moves in the market.

The two rough chances are Scherzare (5) from the Brett Cavanough stables at Scone. She has had one start at Dubbo where he ran second at $31 in a nice effort. Skye Bogenhuber from Toowoomba comes to Grafton to partner this gelding. She recently linked with Cavanough in winning her first Group race at the Sunshine Coast in the Group 2 UBET Moreton Cup aboard The Monstar – a formidable combination that must be respected!

Chris Munce and Ronnie Stewart combine with Mystic Brook, a Hinchinbrook filly who has had a number of trials without really showing too much. I am putting her in on respect for the stable and their ability to get a nice 2-year-old to the races.

Selections 6-12-7-4 rough chances 5 & 10

*************************************************************************************************

Race 2

Things do not get any easier in race 2 here with a maiden race over the mile.

This is not a race I can get excited about.

I think the Matthew Dunn stables are well represented with Steven (7) who has been working well since a stable change. He is third up here for his new stable and I think the way he may be looking for the mile after reviewing his last two starts. Tegan Harrison remains aboard the gelding – she has been aboard in his two previous starts.

I am liking the form of the locally trained Famed (10) who is trained by John Shelton. He has a habit of getting his horses to peak over the Carnival and this runner is second up over the mile after a very good run here a month ago over 1430 metres. I see that one Shelton’s ex-apprentices Adam Hyeronimus is riding for his old boss. Maybe this team reunited will throw up a winner!

The Sledgehammer (9) is from the Daniel Bowen stables. He has had a recent stable change coming from Victoria to the NSW Northern Rivers stables. He has some solid form over longer distances and, being out of So You Think, I think the mile will be right up his alley. Matthew McGuren is aboard.

The topweight Acraman (1) is the likely leader in the race with Ben Looker aboard. Last start at Port Macquarie he acquitted himself well over the 1506 metres on a soft 6.

Scott Henley has a nice three-year-old Lover Legs (4) - trained on the track. Jimmy Orman has been booked for the ride. Maybe it is horses for courses with this one as the females around town tell me Mr Orman has “Nice Legs”. I will have to look at the track as he is wandering the parade ring! I think we can confidently overlook the last start failure at Port Macquarie when things just did not pan out for this runner.

Selections 7-10-9-1 rough chances 4 & 5

**************************************************************************************************

Race 3

A large nomination of 18 for this Class 2 race over 1410 metres. There are so many horses in these races today – one may have to punt with some caution!

Snipstream (3) from the Michael Costa stables at the Gold Coast has been working through his grades very well and faces his toughest test to date. He is looking for a hat trick of wins at Grafton with Luke Dittman looking to keep his one hundred percent win strike rate on the gelding.

He recently was in a trial at Doomben won by Shogun Sun – who came out and was very impressive winning at the Sunshine Coast last Saturday. That form line looks a great guide for this race. He is drawn well in barrier 2 and will race on the speed and should be suited by the big open Grafton track.

Phabeni (1) has had a stable change and is now trained locally by Terry McCarthy. He has a massive 62 kilograms allocated but will get 2 kilograms off here for apprentice Leah Kilner who claims 2 kilograms. She has been in sensational form in recent months in the meetings around the Northern Rivers and she looks to have a good chance of winning a race here.

Midweek Hussler (5) is fourth up this preparation. His runs recently have not been flash. Last start you should forgive the run as it was on a heavy bog at Ballina and he does not really like wet heavy tracks. Back to a firmer surface this weekend - and with Raymond Spokes aboard - look for an improved effort.

Again, John Shelton has a runner here and will have Adam Hyeronimus aboard. Arlington Heights (8) resumes here after a 6-month spell. Last start before the spell, at Glenn Innes, was a solid run over 1400 metres and I thought the run was good. I would think that he has been in work and made ready for this first up assignment by this wily local trainer Shelton. Do not be surprised if this is one that may be subject to a plunge!

Arugula (10) cracked his maiden win at Tamworth last start over 1200 metres when he was left alone in front and really dominated the race in a superb ride from Ben Looker. Will he get away with the same tactics here at Grafton – probably not – but his win was impressive.

Matthew Dunn has Vivid Pink (14) going around here with apprentice Clayton Gallagher aboard. Look this Sebring mare is very well bred – I just cannot seem to catch her. She is down in the weights and running third up at a distance and a track that should suit her. Maybe she can surprise me and post a win.

Saint Denis (12) is trained at Port Macquarie by the new kid on the block – Matthew McCudden. He has only entered the training racing ranks recently and has been successful with 26 runners with 4 winners and 6 placings. Not a bad effort and he is sure to improve as he gets some more horses in his stable. He is a very level headed and polite young man – WINNO maybe will issue a challenge to go 60 Seconds with him at Grafton!

Selections 3-1-14-5 rough chances 8, 10 & 12

*************************************************************************************************

Race 4 – 2018 John Carlton Cup

Looks another good chance here for the Brett Cavanough and Skye Bogenhuber team who combine with Still Daunted (4) who is coming off three successive wins. He has had three weeks since his last run and he was impressive winning over 1280 metres at Muswellbrook. I think the track and the conditions will suit – he looks a solid chance here.

The stablemate is Just A Bullet (1) to be ridden by Ben Looker. I think this runner is better over the shorter distances of 1000 metres or so. I wonder if the run here is to get him ready for the last race on Cup Day next Thursday – the time-honoured Kirby Sprint over 1000 metres.

Mystic Moon (5) represents another formidable combination with the Toby Edmonds and Jimmy Orman team. This mare normally likes to lead, however, there are a couple of speedsters in the race and I think Orman will have to take a sit from barrier 2 and make a final surge late in the final 100 metres to get her home.

King Lear (6) was sent out favourite last start in the race at Muswellbrook won by Still Daunted (4). I think there were a few excuses last start for this Tony Newing trained gelding and I think that at the weights he gets in well for that defeat. On the larger track and with some genuine speed he will be motoring home late out wide in the distinctive yellow body and red strawberry silks with Matthew McGuren in the saddle. Do not under estimated this runner.

Greselin (3) is from the Danny Bowen stables. This mare does like the Grafton circuit and comes off a win at Casino over 1000 metres around seven weeks ago. She had a barrier trial at Ballina over 1000 metres where she won by 7.3 lengths. Local jockey Stephen Traecey stays aboard. He has an impressive strike rate with two rides for two wins aboard her.

Selections 4-5-6-3 rough chances 1

**************************************************************************************************

Race 5

Tough race for the second leg of the Quaddie. Not sure what to do here.

Looks Like Elvis (3) from the Bryan Dais yards won a trial last week at Doomben on Tuesday. Jimmy Orman rode the gelding in that trial and remains aboard for this first up run. This runner raced behind some Group and Listed race winners last preparation and the recent trial looked striking.

Helfuchi (8) loves to lead and seems to always gets run down last few metres in her races. Ron Stewart takes the reigns here for the run. I think she may be still a sitting duck with this long Grafton straight, however, she will try her heart out.

Simply Striking (9) is third up this run for the Neil Osborne stables and Billy Owen is aboard again. He has drawn a visitor’s barrier draw in barrier 17. I not sure how to align the Canberra form with the local form but I think the 1200 metres will be suitable here.

Coffs Harbour trainer Jim Jarvis trains Evopex (2) who is first up for his stable. This trainer always seems to produce a winner over the Carnival. I see he has booked Matthew McGuren for the ride as well – these two are a daunting combination when they combine, and the stable money goes on. It will be easy to find this runner in the running as he wears the hot pink and white vee silks for the Jarvis stables.

Overall a difficult race that could be a blow out result to punters!

Selections 3-8-9-2 rough chance 10 & 15

**************************************************************************************************

Race 6

A class 3 race over the 1106 metres – as the Grafton race caller Anthony Collins would say “the penultimate race on the program.” Make sure you listen in to the call – I bet he uses this phrase! Did I mention this QLD Muppet is taking on WINNO over the Carnival in a tipping competition – hopefully I can give him a touch up like I do to his QLD comrade Josh Fleming!

Almas (7) trained by Danny Bowen is looking for a hat trick of wins here with Matthew McGuren aboard again. He has won at Grafton and then Lismore and has been well placed by Bowen – despite drawing barrier 12 I expect him to get back midfield and flash home late.

The topweight is trained locally by Wayne Lawson – Dominant Crown (1). He has a solid record at his home track (4 starts for 1 win and 2 seconds). He is another runner who will get back in the field and will storm home late. Allan Chau rides the gelding for the first time.

Jets Cracker (2) is from the Stephen Lee stables now based at the Gold Coast. He has had 7 weeks between runs and has been freshened for this sprint race. Last start he raced here over 1206 metres – the run was very good and I think the shorter distance will suit well.

I think the factor the draws me to this runner is his record at the Grafton track – he has won all his three career starts here. Leah Kilner takes 2 kilograms off the weight here and he does look well placed.

Selections 2-1-7-11 rough chance 6

**************************************************************************************************

Race 7 2018 Westlawn Finance Grafton Cup Prelude

This race can be a race that gives a good pointer to the Grafton Cup that is run next week on Thursday. The field this year is very competitive and with a massive 18 runners nominated anything could happen!

For mine I think that the winner of the Cup next week will not come from this field this year!

Last start Collaboration (3) and Art Attack (3) met at Coffs Harbour with the win going to Collaboration (3) on that occasion. I think over the longer distance 2215 metres at Grafton that the Jenny Graham trained / Ben Looker ridden Art Attack (5) should be able to reverse the placings. He has raced here for 4 wins and 6 placings from 13 starts in the past and he does prefer a slow surface and he gets conditions to suit this week.

I like the latest run of the Lesley Jeffries runner Husonique (8) at Tamworth who worked well into the race when beaten over 2100 metres. Peter Graham who won the Grafton Cup in 2016 aboard the Sally Taylor Rednav takes the ride here. The Husson gelding has won twice here previously and Peter Graham will be looking for his first win aboard this runner in the Cup Prelude.

Straight Home (9) may just do that – and go straight home to the wire first and win the race! This gelding trained at the Gold Coast by David Joice and will be ridden by Matthew Paget. This runner has never raced over the distance – but his last few starts at the Gold Coast over 1800 metres gives me the impression that he will stay and will run this distance out. The wet track will not be an issue and his only lightly raced four-year-old that is showing some promise in his runs.

The stable mate, Dazzle Us Again (7), will be ridden by Tegan “Tegz” Harrison. This runner is fourth up this preparation and I think like his stable mate is looking for this longer distance and will appreciate just sitting in behind the leaders throughout the run. Tegan is riding in career best form and being an ex-local girl would love to add this Grafton Cup Prelude win to her resume.

Selections 8-9-5-7 rough chance 3

***************************************************************************************************

Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

4,6,7,12 / 1,7,9,10 / 1,3,5,14 / 4,5,6 cost is $192 to $1

Quaddie (races 4 to 7)

4,5,6 / 2,3,8,9 / 1,2,7,11 / 5,7,8,9 - cost is $192 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 4 to 7)

4,6 / 3,8 / 1,2,7 / 5,8,9 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 5 to 7)

2,3,8,9 / 1,2,7,11 / 5,7,8,9 - cost is $64 to $1

Jockeys Challenge

Look, it is a tough program – I think Jimmy Orman has a nice book of rides – so I will put him on top but watch out for the ex-local girl Tegan Harrison she seems to thrive on this day each year.

**************************************************************************************************

Tipping Competition

WINNO is taking on good friend and Queenslander Anthony Collins over the Carnival. Be sure to catch our up to date selections on Facebook each day!

May the better man win!

More articles