WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 11, 2018

By Darren Winningham | Tuesday, July 10, 2018

GRAFTON CUP CARNIVAL 2018 – DAY 3 - WEDNESDAY 11 JULY – RAMORNIE DAY

Day three is the traditional “RAMORNIE” day, this year sponsored by Grafton District Services Club (GDSC).

The track is currently rated “GOOD” and the rail is back in its true position after being around 3 metres out for Day 1 and Day 2 of the Carnival.

Watch out as the jockeys will probably use that unraced part of the track early in the day. On day two horses racing on the speed seemed to have a distinct advantage. Make sure you watch the first few races just in case a bias develops. In the past this is not the case as horses on Ramornie Day have loved to come wide, and come late and fast – look for some exciting close finishes. Course race caller Anthony Collins may have his work cut out for him!

The first two days of the Carnival have been dominated by local jockey Matthew McGuren who has been riding in career best form. He has won both feature races staged so far. On Thursday he took out the John Carlton Cup aboard the Tony Newing trained King Lear and then he backed up winning the South Grafton Cup aboard Cogliere trained by Marc Quinn at Port Macquarie. Such is McGuren’s dominance of the Carnival so far can be further gauged by the fact that he saluted on both Day 1 and Day 2 the jockeys challenge!

So – it is time Ramornie 2018 – I hope that all punters arriving early get along to the sponsor’s Calcutta held at the Grafton District Services Club (GDSC) on Tuesday night around 7.00pm start! I am certain it will be a massive pool this year!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

We start the day with a maiden over 1000 metres.

An open race with several runners resuming fresh here. That could mean a Grafton plunge – so keep your eye on the market movers as we get closer to post time!

Matthew Dunn from up the road at Murwillumbah has three runners – Little Bit of Suzy (8), Mother to Race Her (9) and Vernazza (14). All three runners have had some early support in the markets since they opened. Vernazza (14) has been back from $7 to $4.20.

I like the Matt McGuren mount Toucan (5) trained by Felicity Firth who comes off a solid run at Lismore last start when he was favourite. Prior to that he had run some nice races at Grafton. The three runs since resuming have all been on “soft” tracks – I am punting on a massive improvement on firm ground.

Little Bit of Suzy (9) will be ridden by Tegan “Tegz” Harrison. This filly has been performing well since resuming from a spell. She normally races on the speed – after the way the track played on Sunday this could be an advantage early on here. Tegan always loves to lead on horses and rates them well in front.

Whilst Tegan is leading – do not be surprised that Jim Byrne, aboard Mother To Race Her (9), is plotting a path or following another runner to bring him into the race and launch his assault to win late. This filly does get back in her races but she does have a very powerful finish. It would not surprise me on this big open track to see her salute in this first race. Ironically it is State of Origin day – Jim will be in the Matthew Dunn maroon colours. I am sure that there will be something said if he wins this race!

Foxy’s Foxinator (12) is trained by Jenny Graham. He is a two-year-old taking on the older horses which has not been a winning combination over the first two days of the Carnival. He is first up here this weekend and comes off a solid trial at Taree last weekend where he looked very forward. I am sure he will race well fresh.

Look this is a very open race – take heed of any market moves for any of these runners is my advice!

Selections 5-9-12-8 rough chance 4 and 14

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Race 2

Island Grange (2), trained by Les Tilley and to be ridden by Robert Thompson, looks well placed here after a solid performance last start at Muswellbrook over 1280 metres. I think that the drop back in distance will suit this mare as I think she is more genuine over a shorter distance. She is the early market favourite.

The one I really like is Shear Vogue (8) to be ridden by my new-found friend Kanichiro “Joe” Fujii. We have been chatting and he has been appreciating the photos I have got of him over the Carnival so far. When he returned to scale on Sunday in the last aboard the Neville Stewart trained Cantillate he didn’t know he had won until WINNO told him on the track. He sits low in the saddle and rides well.

This Joe Gleeson trained runner won here on 5 May with “Joe” in the saddle over 1225 metres. Since then she has stepped up in grade and distance. With a month since her last run I think she will have been freshened and, drawn in barrier 2, I expect him to push forward and take a sit behind a couple of other speedsters engaged in the race here. She will run this distance and she runs well on good tracks.

Royal Equiano (5) is a David Joice runner from the Gold Coast. Rikki Palmer takes the ride again here. She has been racing on some tight turning tracks of late. I think that she will be to settle back and bring her wide or along the rails. This is her fourth run up this preparation. Let’s hope she can fill a place for exotic punters.

I’ll Take Money (11) has struck some wet tracks in her past four starts. Whilst she has had some success on wet tracks her most consistent form has been on top of the ground. Look for an improved effort over the shorter distance on top of the ground.

Selections 8-2-5-11

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Race 3

A tough BM55 race over the 1100 metres greets us for the third race.

The Bob Milligan / Corey Brown runner Texas Storm (3) may be looking to create a hurricane at Grafton in this race! They have jumped out of trees to back this runner since the markets opened. The runner opened at $9 and has been sensationally backed into $4.60. This gelding got too far back last start at Scone and could not make ground. Watch for Corey Brown to take up a prominent position in running from barrier 4.

There has been another runner that has been well found in this race as well – the Neil Osbourne / Billy Owen runner Simply Striking (7) that went around here last Thursday over 1206 metres. That was a particularly strong Class 1 race in my opinion. The blinkers go back on this start. The other day he was a little unlucky in the running and I thought seemed to run around a little. With the addition of blinkers, I think he will be switched on and could run a race here. He has firmed from $16 to $6.50 since the markets have opened.

Lord Mal (5) is fourth up here. Andrew Gibbons who ironically has a Ramornie winner to his credit in 2011 when he rode the Godolphin runner Jerezana to victory (WINNO had something on her) rides this gelding for Ken Lantry. Over the years I have been coming here this stable has had a large amount of success. I think that this runner will be much better on top of the ground and on a good track. His last few runs on wet tracks, whilst they have been solid have been on tight turning tracks and he has not appreciated those conditions.

Munce Racing is represented with Tevye (4) who was run down late at Ipswich last start when sent out as favourite. Ronnie Stewart stays aboard the runner this week. On Thursday this team went down in a close finish with another runner Helfuchi. I think that they will be looking to atone that defeat and post a winner at the Grafton Carnival!

Selections 5-4-3-7 rough chances 6 and 9

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Race 4

Honour ‘N’ Strength (2) comes off some solid form races in Brisbane from the Winter Carnival dropping back from a Class 6 to a BM65. He posted a win in this grade and distance five weeks ago at the Gold Coast. Forget the last start failure at Doomben he was caught wide and never put in and dropped out over the concluding stages. At $10 each way I think we have a live each way chance here.

Giddyup (4) comes off a run last week at Newcastle over 1200 metres. The Churchill Downs mare has been in the Neil Goldbolt stables for her past two starts after a stable change. She has very good form over 1400 metres and prefers a dry track. Her first two starts for her new stable have been on wet tracks – she gets her chance to show her quality this week at Grafton.

Tarbert (5) ran last Thursday over an unsuitable 1100 metres and was just warming up when the judge called a halt to the race. I think back to 1400 metres where he has won and placed four times in seven starts we will see a better effort. The Hunter Kilner runner has the services of Brisbane jockey Michael Cahill who has been riding in sensational form in the past three weeks – a jockey in form and stepping up in distance will surely benefit this runner.

Another Matthew Dunn runner rounds out my top four. Ten Taubada’s (7) led and won on a bog heavy track at Ballina two weeks ago. So far, the form out of that meeting has not stood up here at the Carnival – so it may be hard to see him winning here.

The topweight is not without some chance. Cejay Graham has been riding these heavy weighted horses over the first two days in fine style and rating them well. The Brian Garvey runner has been racing consistently and could show up at odds.

Selections 2-4-5-7 rough chance 1

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Race 5

This is the first leg of our Quaddie – a Class 2 over the mile.

Risaldar (4) has been getting back and working home nicely over shorter distances like 1400 metres. The Sepoy gelding is bred to run a mile and I reckon at his maiden attempt at the distance he could grab the chocolates and the flowers for trainer Sally Taylor!

Sally loves the Grafton Carnival and who can ever forget a major win for her when she won the 2016 Cup with Rednav and Peter Graham in the saddle. This runner has the services of the in-form Matt McGuren who has ridden him on five other occasions. There are some nice odds of around $6 on offer.

It’s Relative (1) is ironically named! Ben Looker and Stirling Osland have had several runners over the Carnival that have been beaten on the line or in the final 50 metres of the race. With a change of luck they all probably deserved to win- relatively speaking of course!

This runner was very good winning a mile race at Gunnedah last start. Ben rode him there and has won on him twice now – maybe this is the race where this team’s fortunes will turn around at the Grafton Carnival!

Found Out (2) is a Victorian runner up for the Grafton Carnival and is trained by Jay Hopkins. Jake Hull who has returned to the pig skin and has been riding in career best form. In fact, he showed his toughness after a fall at Tamworth on Monday this week, dusting himself off and getting back in the saddle to ride a winner later in the program. I am sure that he will be looking for a Carnival winner and this runner gives him a genuine chance as he has won races up to 1700 metres. Despite his two career starts being both on soft ground I think he is well placed here.

Salad Dodger (5) is named after me for sure – I am not a massive fan of salads! This Colt Prosser runner has been running around at his local tracks at the Mid North Coast of NSW. Last start he led them up in a Highway Handicap over a mile at Rosehill. He normally likes to lead and set the pace – this may assist the back markers in this race, however, if we are seeing leaders clear out and winning earlier in the day do not leave this runner out of your top selections.

Selections 4-1-2-5 rough chance 6

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Race 6 Grafton Guineas 2018

The first of our feature races on Ramornie Day the Tursa Inglis Bonus Grafton Guineas for 2018.

This race always brings some great quality three years old horses to compete each year.

There are three horses that have been racing on wet tracks who absolutely hate them and despite the wet tracks have performed admirably. I think on the good track at Grafton I expect them to excel – those runners are Mishani Bullitt (1), Bold Assassin (3) and Chalmers (4).

Mishani Bullitt (1) is trained in Brisbane by Chris Anderson and to be ridden by Matthew McGillivray for the first time. This runner has been racing in Group 2 and Group 3 races over the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Last start in the Sunshine Coast Guineas he was caught wide on a heavy track. I think we can overlook that run and I think he may be ridden in the first six here. He has a massive 61 kilograms to contend with, but he will be competitive given a nice cosy run.

Bold Assassin (3) trained at the Sunshine Coast by Garnett Taylor beat home Mishani Bullitt (1) in the Sunshine Coast Guineas last start. He was hampered at the start and lost ground – plenty of excuses – but somehow jockey Ryan Wiggins (aboard here as well) managed to pilot a path home and run a gallant second to The Bostonian. He has three career wins, and all of these have been on good tracks. He has a terrible barrier draw – drawing barrier 17 – but from this start Wiggo should have some time to find a place and make sure he is not caught wide.

Kris Lees Racing has Chalmers (4) going around with Craig Newitt riding. He posted a win last start at Warwick Farm on a heavy track – however, his best career runs have been on good tracks. He normally likes to sit in behind the speed before making a move in his races around the 250 metres mark. That positioning, and style should see him competitive here. He has been well supported in the markets firming from $7 to $4.20 since the markets opened.

Unique Magic (6) from the Donald “Ducky” Baker yards has been dominating in lower grades. Last start she raced in the Sunshine Coast Guineas as well and performed well on a heavy track finishing just 2.65 lengths behind the winner. She has drawn barrier 16 – she likes to lead normally so I expect jockey Skye Bogenhuber to push forward and take up the running.

I Am Impinge (9) is from the Toby Edmonds stables on the Gold Coast. He raced here in the Prelude and was sent out as favourite and over-raced and managed to finish second. Last start at Doomben he just had no luck in the running and really was not fully tested. He steps out to the mile for his first time here – the way he races he gives you the feeling that he will get the distance. Jim Byrne takes the ride this week.

The one that has grabbed my attention is Cisco Bay (10) trained by George Woodward and to be ridden by Robert Thompson. He is only very lightly raced so far with 6 career starts with 3 wins and a second. Despite running in some restricted grades, he has been carrying some large weights. He drops to 54 kilograms here and “RT” (Robert Thompson) has ridden him to victory in his past two starts – he is looking for a hat trick of wins here in the Guineas. He is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 and I think he will be very competitive. There has been some support for this runner being well backed from $15 to $8.50 in some markets.

Selections 10-3-4-9 rough chances 1, 2, 6 and 8

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Race 7 Grafton District Services Club 2018 Ramornie

The feature race on Day 3 of the Carnival and what a field!

Let’s start with The Monstar (1) coming off a Group 1 run in the Stradbroke. I am sure the connections and trainer Brett Cavanough would have liked to have seen a wet track – in fact the wetter the better for this runner. But who can forget the gallant second last year in this race when beaten by Calanda by a short head. He had a torrid run last year and was only just pipped in the shadow of the posts. This year, despite the massive weight and the bad barrier draw, I expect him to be competitive again. He has had a month to rest and freshen after the run in the Stradbroke.

I must mention my old mate Big Money (3). He is trained by Rodney Northam and he won this race in 2014! Then in 2016 I still say the judge got the photo wrong when he was runner up in a photo that seemed to go for an eternity when beaten by Smart Volatality. He is eight years old now but he always runs a bold race fresh. He recently won a barrier trial at Muswellbrook in dominant fashion but he has had no luck with the barrier draw copping barrier 17. Some may say I am stupid – but my sixth sense tells me that this runner is ready and set for this race. He cannot escape my attention and at the silly odds of $21. I will be having something on him!

The horses that I cannot split are Tyzone (5) and Havasay (6).

Tyzone (5) is trained by Toby Edmonds. Forget the gallant second last start in the Ipswich Eye Liner – I think that the 1350 metres was too far for him. He is a genuine horse over 1200 metres. He thrives over this distance and he loves firm surfaces. Glen Colless has ridden him before for a win so he knows the horse – so do not fear anything there! He has drawn nicely in barrier 7 and gets a track and conditions to suit in the 2018 Ramornie. He is going to be super hard to beat for mine!

Havasay (6) is also trained by Toby Edmonds. I cannot ever forget the run here on Cup day in 2017 when he came out and won the Plate race fresh up from a spell. He then went to string another 3 wins together that preparation. This year he has had a different preparation and has been racing in Group races in Brisbane over the winter.

He is treated very well at the weights. Last start in the W.J.Healy (Group 3) he was caught wide from a wide barrier and pratted out deep for a majority of the run. Despite that he still battled on to finish third under a length back in a Group race. He has met Tyzone (5) this preparation. He meets him 0.5 kilogram better for that defeat. In the end it could come down to what runner has the better passage in running – I cannot split them!

So, in WINNO true fashion – let’s bracket them both for the win! They have both been well supported in the early markets as well – some solid support has seen them both firm a few points since betting opened on the race.

Snoopy (8) from the Chris Munce stables has been racing consistently. I think he is a rough chance here in this field. He has drawn well and has no weight. This large track and long straight will suit him.

Malvern Estate (11) is trained by Desleigh Forster and will be ridden by Jim Byrne. “Jockey Jim” will be looking for consecutive Ramornie’s aboard this runner – can he do it? Well I think he is on a genuine live chance punters Forget the run in the W.J.Healy (Group 3) when he drew badly and was obliged to race wide before fading and finishing 3.6 length off the winner in tenth position. This runner has an good second up record and this week has drawn well in barrier 5. I expect him to race in the first six and to be handy throughout.

I must mention the local runner Belflyer (14) trained by John Shelton and to be ridden by Ben Looker who has been out of luck so far across the Carnival. Ben is looking for his first Ramornie career winner – he would love to win it for his old boss! Belflyer has had only two career starts at his home track for two wins – an impressive statistic! Maybe he can make it 3 from 3 at massive odds! Shelton always has a habit of getting his runners ready for this Carnival and has had no success on days one and two! So beware!

Selections (5-6) – 11-1 rough chances 2, 8 and 14

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Race 8

The last race of the day – another massive field to contend with!

We are racing over 2200 metres as well – a long distance race - so at least we get to enjoy watching losing or winning out money over a longer period of time!

Art Attack (2) backs up from a nice run in the Cup Prelude last Thursday. He got back and stormed home late going down in a blanket finish. Despite the large weight he will be right in this race. Ben Looker stays aboard for Jenny Graham.

I like the runner that has had some time off since his last run – well a fortnight at least. Chantilly Chateau (5) is trained by Jason Reilly and will be ridden by Matt McGuren. He is looking for a hat trick of wins here after winning at Grafton (1730 metres) and then at Port Macquarie (2018 metres) when he raced close to the speed and just powered away in the final 100 metres. Both starts Matt McGuren has a one hundred percent winning record aboard this runner 2 from 2 – can it continue?

Diane Murphy a great trainer from Brisbane has had some stable success in recent weeks winning several races. She brings Glen Ord to the Carnival with Mark Du Plessis to ride. His last start at Doomben over 2240 metres was good. I feel that the larger track will suit this runner as he likes to settle and then come late. This track will permit this style of ride.

Whakatane (11) this may be a topical tip – just say the horses name a few times! I hope to be heading away from Ramornie day to go and watch NSW “Whack” QLD in Origin at the Grafton District Services Club who will be hosting the traditional Grafton Cup Calcutta. That should commence around 7pm - Just enough time to get it over and done with prior to settling in and watching the Game.

Whakatane is trained by Robert Knight and will be ridden by local apprentice Leah Kilner. He has been struggling on wet tracks in his past few starts – so overlook those runs. He has won here previously and enjoys this distance. With the weight relief for Kilner he may feature in the finish and he is another runner who is backing up after a week off after a run at Tamworth.

Selections 5-2-6-11 rough chance 8

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Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

5,8,9,12,14 / 2,5,8,11 / 3,4,5,6,7 / 2,4,5,7 - cost is $400 to $1

Value Early Quad (races 1 to 4 NSW)

5,9 / 2,8 / 3,4,5 / 2,4,5 - cost is $36 to $1

Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,2,4,5 / 1,3,4,9,10 / 1,2,5,6,11 / 2,5,6,11 - cost is $400
to $1

Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,4 / 3,4,10 / 5,6 / 2,5,6 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

1,3,4,9,10 / 1,2,5,6,11 / 2,5,6 - cost is $75 to $1

Jockeys Challenge

This is a tough day for the jockey’s challenge – I think you can have something on Matt McGuren again. He has some solid chances. If you want to look for some value the old stager and man who always rides winners over this Carnival Robert “RT” Thompson has some very good chances and he could be some massive odds! Matthew McGillivray also must rate a mention with his book of rides.I think I will be backing Matt and RT!

Tipping Competition

WINNO is taking on good friend and Queenslander Anthony Collins over the Carnival. Be sure to catch our up to date selections on Facebook each day! It is all level after Day 2 – WINNO 1 – COLLINS 1. We are both looking for bragging rights!

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