WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 15, 2018
By Darren Winningham | Saturday, July 14, 2018
GRAFTON CUP CARNIVAL – DAY 5 SUNDAY 15 JULY 2018
Day five and the final day of the Grafton Carnival is the traditional “Maclean Cup” sponsored by the Maclean Bowling Club.
The track is currently rated “GOOD” and the rail is in the true position.
I walked the track after Cup Day on Thursday and it was pretty chopped up near the fence. But seriously after 4 meetings in just eight days what track would not be chopped up to some degree.
I think come Sunday they will probably be near the rail early on before coming 6 or 7 wide as the program gets on.
The staff at the track have been filling the track and rolling it after each meeting and the track is still racing very well and holding up well.
I have been told that there is a Calcutta at the Maclean Bowling Club on Saturday night – so WINNO is doing a first and heading there to see what goes on!
There are been many highlights over the Carnival – I will write what my highlights are after Day 5!
With a fine day forecast with a cold morning I have packed a jacket and I am ready to resume the battle with the bookies on Sunday!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
We start the day with a small field of only five runners.
Well hold the phone - Sue Grills has made an appearance finally at the 2018 Carnival. She has Not A Princess (2) nominated! I am sure that this horse was not named after either of her son’s Andrew or Todd – or was it?
She ran a nice race at Muswellbrook last start and is sure to be competitive here.
The topweight was sent out favourite first up at Quirindi – Finne Realta (1). She probably needed the run after looking at the replay. I think she will strip fitter for that outing and be difficult to beat here. You guessed it – yes, Matthew McGuren has the ride as well. He has ridden so well over the first four days of the Carnival.
Selections 1-2-4-3
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Race 2
Jenny Graham tasted success on Ramornie Day with the impressive Foxy’s Foxinator. She has another stable representative here stepping out as well looking for more Carnival glory in Lope De Lope (3) to be ridden by the man of the moment Matt McGuren.
This mare ran a nice race at the Gold Coast last start over 1800 metres being beaten 0.4 length when she motored home late on a track that really didn’t suit back markers on that day.
Light Motion (7) is trained locally by Shane Everson and went around last Sunday when beaten in the last race over a mile by Cantillate. That was a blanket finish with several runners hitting the line late. Stepping up to a longer distance will not pose any issue to this gelding.
The other two runners I like come out of the same race from last Sunday.
Ramatuelle (5) was making a late surge as well when the judge called a halt. Paula Campbell trains this Charge Forward mare and local jockey Matthew Paget takes the mount on Sunday.
Tony Newing who has been training winners over the Carnival is represented by Forsox (6). Last Sunday he raced on the speed and just faded in the final 100 metres. I think, based on that run, he may struggle stepping up to 1700 metres of this race … but Newing could train me to stand on my head now so it must be given a chance.
Selections 3-7-5-6 rough chance 4
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Race 3
A maiden plate over 1100 metres greets us for the third race.
Fleeting Princess (8) was defeated here a week ago in a maiden race over the same distance after making the speed in front and being run down late. She had to work a little from barrier 10 at the start on that occasion, but this week she has drawn barrier 4 and should be able to lead again and hopefully not get run down. She is trained locally by Dwayne Schmidt and it would be great to see him get some Carnival success. Matthew Paget remains aboard.
Andrew Parramore has one facing the starter for the first time Kawana Star (9) who won a barrier trial last Thursday week ago after the last. She looked good winning that trial. Brooke Stower rode her in the trial and stays aboard for her race debut.
Our Esposito (10) resumes here for Aiden St Vincent. This filly is owned by the Adrenaline Thoroughbreds syndications and has been racing in better company. Despite to barrier trial form I expect her to race well fresh and it is good to see jockey Jake Hull back in the saddle after his fall on Wednesday.
Selections 8-9-10-4 rough chance 12
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Race 4
Dia Vernon (1) beat Fleeting Princess (Race 3 – number 8) last weekend here – so we may see how that form stands up in the previous race. It is very tough to go from a maiden to a Class 2 race however, this Tony Newing runner did seem to appreciate the firm Grafton track and the race having some speed in it.
Matthew McGuren stays aboard after winning last weekend and the opposition looks below par so he may be able to get away with this race. Sometimes when a horse wins they rejuvenate themselves and hit a series of wins – let’s hope this is the case with this one!
Sue Grills has The Gun (4) locked and loaded and heading to Grafton for this race. This Money or The Gun gelding has put a couple of consecutive placings together without really threatening in those two races. Both runs have been over 1000 metres.
On both occasions, he has got back and then flashed home – maybe the 1100 metres is what he is looking for. It would be great to see Sue in the winners’ stall at the Carnival. It is normally a regular occurrence over the Carnival.
Guided (5) will be ridden by Luke Rolls and has struck some bad wet weather tracks over his last three starts. I think that he will appreciate the firm track and look for an improved performance.
Teppum (11) steps up from a maiden win at Quirindi last start when he was ridden just in behind the speed over 1100 metres. I think that he will derive some benefit from that solid run and he is only third up here at Grafton and is sure to be right in it.
Selections 1-4-11-5
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Race 5
Stirling Osland has had little luck over the Carnival and deserves to get some. Last Thursday week Acraman (1) went down in a photo when narrowly beaten by Lover Legs. I think that if he can reproduce that run here he should win this race. With Ben Looker still recovering after the race fall on Wednesday Kanichiro “Joe” Fujii has been booked to ride the Northern Meteor gelding. He has won a race over the Carnival and rides extremely well – this runner is sure to get every chance.
In the same race Famed (3) from the local John Shelton stables led the entire way and was claimed in the final 50 metres by the two runners I have mentioned. She will be competitive here as well and maybe John will train his first winner for the Carnival! Luke “Sausage” Rolls is in the saddle for this ride.
Choconi (4), trained locally by Dwayne Schmidt, got back at Gunnedah last start at 1400 metres before working home nicely to hit the line late extremely well. Being the fresh horse on the scene maybe he can cause an upset win from the more favoured runners.
I do notice that the Chief Executive Officer of the CRJC Michael Beattie has a share in this horse – I am sure he will like to get a photo with a horse he owns over the 2018 Carnival!
Onset (8) also went around in the same race won by Lover Legs. He appeared to peak on his run – but should be competitive here again.
There roughies are Peak Hill (9) from the Daniel Bowen stables who is looking for a good track and look out for a sharp improvement and Queachy (10) from the Stephen Lee stables who will improve on the dry surface.
Selections 1-3-4-10 rough chances 8 & 9
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Race 6 Maclean Bowling Club Maclean Cup 2018
I think John Shelton is a good chance for him to train a feature winner on his home track. Last Sunday in the South Grafton Cup he ran a very good race behind the winner Cogliere making good ground late and finishing a close fourth. He gets a chance to post another win on his home track this weekend where three of his nine caceer starts have occurred. Luke Rolls gets his chance to ride a feature winner over the Carnival as well.
Zamex (5) trained by Matthew Dunn was scratched from the Sunshine Coast on Saturday to be saved for this race. He probably will enjoy racing on top of the ground rather than on a heavy track that he would have encountered at the Sunshine Coast. Two of his five career wins have been over the mile and Jason Taylor takes the ride.
Red Letter Day (4) is trained by Ben Hull on the Gold Coast and he has put his brother Jake Hull aboard for the run. This runner has been working nicely up to the mile and, third up this preparation, he may be ready to fire.
Gold Ambition is another runner from the Gold Coast – this time trained by Michael Costa. He is second up here and although he hasn’t performed second up in the past he looks the type of runner that may just pop up and fill a place. Scott Galloway who has a strong association with this stable comes looking for his first Grafton Carnival winner for 2018.
Selections 3-5-4-7 rough chance 12
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Race 7
The last race – the get out stakes – and it is over 3210 metres – this will be a marathon 3 minutes-plus for the horses and for race caller Anthony Collins.
Maybe you should take “Field” in the Quaddie as anything could happen here.
Lyrids (3) is from the Michael Costa stables who are aiming for a possible race to race double with some luck. That would give Scott Galloway a double in the last two races as well. The gelding is only fourth up from a spell and has had a month between runs – maybe that will assist him with some “fresh legs” compared to some of the other runners.
Sportstar Samuel (5) doesn’t win too often, however, he does perform best over distance races. Jag Guthmann-Chester is aboard this Stephen Jones gelding who worked home very well on a soft track last start at Tamworth over 2100 metres.
The interesting runner is the Ethan Ensby trained Fencourt (7) who needs a jockey with soft hands, not to get the gelding to fire up during his race and rather to get him to settle. Last Sunday Matthew McGuren got him to settle well and he flew home from an impossible position to nearly run down the winner at $31 only being beaten by 0.5 lengths.
There has been a jockey change with Josh Oliver aboard, but I am telling you Josh “Listen to ETHAN” and you may win the last race of the Grafton Carnival 2018! Please listen to him – I really don’t want to listen to the excuses after the race!
Gallant Girl (8) raced in the same races a Fencourt (7) last Sunday but did not show the same turn of foot that he did. In saying that his runs prior to that had been more consistent and had raced very genuinely over some long distances.
The real question that needs to be answered here is which one of this will run out 2 miles – if I had a crystal ball and could tell you we would be winning heaps on the last race of the Carnival!
Selections 3-5-7-8
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Tipping Competition
WINNO is taking on good friend and Queenslander Anthony Collins over the Carnival. Be sure to catch our up to date selections on Facebook each day! Collins (QLD) holds a 3 -1 lead – but is winner take all on the last day!
Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)
1,2 / 3,7 / 8,9,10 / 1,4,11 - cost is $36 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW tote)
1 / 3 / 8 / 1,11 - cost is $2 to $1
Quaddie (races 4 to 7)
1,4,11 / 1,3,4,10 / 3,4,5,7 / 3,5,7,8 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 4 to 7)
1,11 / 1,3 / 3,4 / 3,5,7 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 5 to 7)
1,3,4 / 3,4,5 / 3,5,7,8 - cost is $36 to $1
BIG 6 (races 2 to 6 NSW only)
3 / 8,9 / 1,11 / 1,3 / 3,4 / 3,5,7 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockeys Challenge
Matt McGuren has some nice rides looks like a solid chance to win again!
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