WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, NOVEMBER 3

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, November 1, 2018

The strike is over!!!

We are back racing in Queensland! Just to make up for lost time we have managed to put together a ten-race program at Doomben. Ten races with some large fields and that always means trouble for the punter!

The track is rated “SOFT” (Thursday afternoon) and the rail will be 2.5 metres out the entire course this weekend.

There is a forecast for warm weather over the coming days - 28 degrees on Friday and then 32 degrees on Saturday. I think we may be racing on a “GOOD” surface come Saturday morning.

The spotlight has now turned to Flemington for the Melbourne Cup Carnival that kicks off this weekend with four Group 1 races set down on Day 1 of the Carnival. There is some great value in Melbourne and I will be previewing these meetings over the coming weeks as well.

Anyway, it is time – ten races – a quick preview – and let’s see what we can come up with!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

Small field for the stayers to start the day.

Galtero (8) stepped out last start and ran well for Tony Gollan and Jim Byrne. He steps up again in grade again but looks a very progressive type.

The Waller team from the Gold Coast have three runners and they should all show some improvement on a firm surface this weekend. I think that Estikhraaj (6) is probably the best of them.

His stable mate My Giuliano (4) just keeps plugging away and may be able to fill a hole.

The Darren Graham trained Morendi (1) looked a bit above himself in condition first up at the Sunshine Coast over the unsuitable distance of 1400metres. I would not be surprised to see a dramatic form improvement now he is up to 2020 metres, with a nice weight and with the claim for apprentice Clayton Gallagher.

Selections: 8-6-1-4

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Race 2

I am going to tip the Rob Heathcote trained Femme Fireball (9) to win again this weekend. She was amazing last start at Doomben and put the opposition to the sword. Jockey Dale Smith was full of praise when he dismounted and gave the owners a run down on her performance. The key to this mare is a strong tempo in her races – the faster they go the better she will storm home late.

With Hingus Rose (1) engaged in this I think she gets similar conditions again this weekend. With the small field she should be seeing WINNO and Heathcote in the winner’s stalls after the race!

The only danger I can see in the race is the Kris Lees trained Intrinsic (7) who won the last race a fortnight ago making ground late and running down the leader. That was a wonderful ride by Michael Cahill who retains the ride this week on the mare. I am sure that strapper Melanie Munroe will be jumping around in the enclosure if she can string two wins together.

Selections: 4-7-2-1

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Race 3

This is a two-year-old race for colts and geldings and most of the field are facing the starter for the first time.

I am finding it hard to tip one here with any great confidence.

Chris Waller trains Icelander at the Gold Coast and he won a recent barrier trial. I’m told he looked like he had room to improve on that performance so maybe that is the way to go.

A big watch on the Steven O’Dea trained The Wild One (8) who has had no official trials, however, my track spies tell me this one has been working well. Kiwi Mark Du Plessis is on this runner this weekend and he has drawn handy in barrier 4.

This may be the key to success with some of the more fancied runners drawn a little wide on debut. Maybe he will shoot him forward from the barriers and let them chase. Only time will tell.

Not a selection with much confidence here.

Selections: 8-4-1-9

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Race 4

This is a two-year-old race for the girls! Just like the previous race it looks a hard race to assess with $5 the field in the early markets.

There are two unraced runners that have grabbed my attention.

The first one is Champagne Jet (4) from the Toby Edmonds stables on the Gold Coast. She has drawn barrier 9 and has Mark Du Plessis in the saddle. Mark may just get some luck and ride both two-year-old winners on the program!

This Jet Spur filly looked impressive winning a barrier trial on her home track at the Gold Coast on 30 October. I think that she will derive some benefit from that experience and may be ready for a first up assault on debut this weekend.

Kelly Schweida has Gala Miss (5) engaged here. I see the Whalley family and some others have an interest in this More Than Ready filly who is making her debut. Jimmy Orman is riding her and she has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 for her first outing. There have been no barrier trials for her to date but she has been well backed from $6 into $4.40 in the early markets – maybe she is the way to go.

Barry Lockwood trains Sake of One (8) who won a scamper at Deagon over 650 metres. She looked nice winning in that trial and Corey Bayliss will ride and claim 3 kilograms off the filly. This claim may prove beneficial on debut and I think she may be ridden forward from the gate. Sometimes when these youngsters get in front they are difficult to get past. She represents some good value at $9 in the early markets.

Selections: 4-5-8-2

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Race 5

A Class 3 race over 2020 metres – they are not getting any easier punters!

Mymming (9) got out of her ground here over a mile last start and motored home late from tenth at the 400 metres to just finish 2 lengths away from the winner on a day where some horses were struggling to make ground.

Whilst this Stuart Kendrick runner has never raced over 2020 metres she gives me the opinion that she may be suited this weekend in this field on a track where jockey Damian Browne will be able to bring her wide with a sustained run.

She’s Reliable (15) is another runner trained by Kelly Schweida. This Reliable Man mare ran a solid race in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks over the Winter Carnival. I really think that now she is third up, and on a firm track, we will see the best of her this weekend. Jim Byrne in the saddle. Drawn in barrier 9 and at $18 on offer – each way all day for mine!

Straight Home (2) is trained on the Gold Coast by David Joice and is to be partnered by apprentice Jackson Murphy. He has a tremendous record on this gelding with three rides for 2 wins and a placing aboard him. I think last start over the mile here he may have needed the run. Stepping back up to 2020 metres this weekend we may see an improved performance.

Lucky Captain (4) is trained by Rob Heathcote. This Captain Sonador gelding won impressively at the Gold Coast over 1800metres a fortnight ago on a soft track. I think the way he finished off that race the extra distance will not be any issue. Dale Smith is in the saddle again for the Heathcote stable. They have been a formidable duo recently at the races – maybe this could be another winner!

Selections: 15-9-4-2

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Race 6

A sprint over 1050 metres.

Tough field – so I am keeping it short and sweet.

I think the two chances are the Ben Currie trained Amanaat (1) and the Tony Gollan trained Just Orm (13) both to be ridden by apprentices and both may need some luck from the barriers they have drawn.

Amanaat (1) will be ridden by Michael Murphy who has won on the gelding before. He looks well placed by Ben Currie and this is a distance that he likes. He is first up with a massive 60 kilograms – that is my only concern. However, if he looks trim and terrific in the yard when parading he will be difficult to beat here.

The Gollan runner Just Orm (13) comes back in grade and drops in weight. Last start he was competitive in the race won by Just Like Nel over this track and distance. I think that with the light weight for apprentice Corey Bayliss he will be in the finish. He is not a consistent type of runner and winning here will probably depend on whether he can get all of the breaks in the running.

Prompt Return (8) has had no luck this preparation – wet tracks, held up in the run and this weekend he has drawn barrier 15. However, all of that aside, he has had a month between runs and he normally races well fresh. Since his Bat Out of Hell win in May 2017 he has not seemed to race that well.

This weekend Toby Edmonds has put the blinkers back on and Jeff Lloyd is in the saddle. If you are looking for a roughie at $16 to knock these more fancied runners out this well be the one to jump aboard and gamble on!
Selections: 13-1-8-3

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Race 7

There has been some serious support here for the David Vandyke runner Champagne Daisy (10) firming from $5 to $2.80 since the markets have opened. All other runners have blown due to this support.

The filly has only had four career race starts and won her maiden at the Sunshine Coast last start. She looked impressive and led on that occasion with Jeff Lloyd in the saddle.

This weekend she has drawn well in barrier 1 and probably will take up a forward position again. Lloyd likes to dominate in front and set a tempo when he leads in these races. I think that stepping up to this grade this weekend she may find the opposition a little too tough. This is one of these times where I will either get egg on my face or be a genius!

I think that Plumaro (1) from Kevin “Kempy” Kemp stables at Toowoomba is the way to go here. She was first up last start at Doomben. She got out of her ground but in the final 200 metres made up some tremendous ground along the rails when ridden for luck by Dale Smith.

This weekend “Kempy” has gone for apprentice Jag Guthmann-Chester and his 2-kilogram claim. I think that second up – a firm surface and JAG on board $6 is a great gamble. Let me on Con Searle – WINNO is coming for you!

Light Up The Room (2) resumed in emphatic form last start at Doomben with an outstanding performance with Brad Stewart in the saddle. She rises dramatically in the weights for that win and meets Plumaro (1) on 2.5 kilograms worse terms this time. However, she was solid in that performance and she looked like there was still some improvement left in her. I would not be surprised if she goes on with it here this weekend. Brad Stewart retains the ride.

Selections: 1-2-10-9

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Race 8

Another tough assignment as we get closer to the end of the program.

I was looking through the trial form and runs of a few runners resuming here. I found some good trial runs for Adoradancer (10) and Dream Master (12) who both went around on 25 October at Deagon and both were ridden in the trials by Dale Smith. Then I looked at who has been booked for the rides. I see that Dale has jumped aboard Adoradancer (10) and Michael McNab has been booked the Toby Edmonds trained Dream Master (12).

I have always had an opinion of Adoradancer (10) who is trained by Barry Lockwood. I think her last preparation was railroaded by wet tracks which she is not a super fan of. This week if she gets a firm surface I think she may just show how good she is and put this lot to the sword. She is at great odds as well around $8.

Then we have the Toby Edmonds trained Dream Master (12) who resumed a month ago and was sent out favourite and jumped well and then bucked and was pulled up out of the race. He has then been a subject to a trial for the stewards that he won very well at Deagon. Look, if he jumps and runs he is a genuine contender here and he is way over the odds as well at around $9. Watch out that this one does not get under your guard.

Mishani Electra (8) is another Ben Currie / Michael Murphy runner on the program. She resumed and was narrowly beaten by Prue’s Angel a fortnight ago after leading almost all of the way. I assume that Murphy will adopt the same tactics from barrier 7 and surge forward and try and keep the opposition at bay in the final 50 metres of the race. She has a good second up record and warrants respect here.

Bright Idea (14) from team Tony Gollan resumed and won a weaker race at Ipswich. She is drawn handy and the stable has been firing. Jim Byrne stays aboard again this weekend. Can she step up to Saturday city grade – time will tell!

Selections: 10-12-8-14

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Race 9

We are getting closer to finishing the massive day!

I think the race is between two runners – you can take your pick!

The Toby Edmonds trained Madam Shazam (7), to be ridden by Jeff Lloyd, and the Matthew Dunn trained Tristan De Angel (13), to be ridden by Jim Byrne.

Seems like it is the battle of the old boys here. Tactics will play a vital role in the result of this race!

Madam Shazam (7) has worked through her grades and won her past four starts – looking for five wins in a row here this weekend. I think she surprised a few at her last start with her good win over the mile here on a ‘Good’ track when she settled off them and rattled home late. She is up in grade again this weekend but with some speed in the race she may be able to be ridden the same way and make a late run at them again.

Tristan De Angel (13) was super last start in a Highway Handicap at Randwick on a heavy track. Some are saying that the track played a part in the win over 1400metres. I am not too sure. The run was great and the ride from Brenton Avdulla was an 11 out of 10 with him summing up the race and timing a run perfectly to get the chocolates. The way he ran and won that race I think he will get the mile here. This is his first effort at the mile and he gets in with a nice weight to help him to try to post a win here.

I gave Phabeni (12), an ex Godolphin runner now trained by Terry McCarthy, a big wrap last start. He led and was run down. I think the longer distance of 1615 metres will be right up his alley and with Clayton Gallagher riding again he will be super competitive.

Double Superlative (8), from Kelly Schweida Racing, is fourth up this weekend over the mile. He has won over this distance and Jimmy Orman takes the ride. It could be a good day for the Schweida team as they have some good chances across the program.

Selections: 7-13-8-12

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Race 10

The last race - **YAWN** - I will need a pillow and massage after this big day!

I think that this is the hardest race on the program with possible scratchings and some of the emergencies possibly making the field complicating the selection.

I have respect for the Gary Duncan trained Magnufighter (16) who resumes from an 18-week spell here with Dale Smith aboard. He was in good form over the Brisbane Winter Carnival. His recent trial was not all that favourable, however, he has a habit of running well first up especially around this distance. He is drawn well in barrier 3 and I expect him to be hard to toss.

The runner that looks the likely danger is Freddie Fox Trot (9) drawn right next door in barrier 4 with Ryan Plumb in the saddle. I can forgive him his first up effort with a massive 59 kilograms over 1050 metres where he settled off them but then still managed to pick up his feet late and come home nicely behind the eventual winner.

The run was full of merit and I expect him to have derived some benefit from that hit out. His record is pretty imposing with 9 starts and 6 wins with Ryan riding him to 5 career wins.

Courtza King (3) has been going very well this campaign and cannot be left out of the chances. I see that Tony Gollan has gone for a claim and put apprentice Clayton Gallagher aboard this runner. He is treated well at the weights now with this 3 kilogram claim and will take some holding out.

Tawfiq Boy (11) lines up to attempt the 1350 metres at Doomben for the first time. He will be ridden by Jeff Lloyd for the Kris Lees Racing team at Newcastle.

Savwell (14) is another David Vandyke runner who can run a race first up. Damian Browne has been booked to ride the gelding and he has a 100% record on him with 3 rides for 3 wins – you must be respectful of these stats.

As mentioned earlier if some of the reserves make the field the race may take on another complexion. These runners would include the Tony Gollan Umberto (22) and the Chris Waller trained Cedarwood (24).

Selections: 9-16-3-11 rough chances to 14,17,22 & 24

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Jockey Challenge

Well it looks an open field this weekend. Dale Smith, Jim Byrne and Jeff Lloyd all have some decent rides. I am going for Dale Smith to get home – he may be a nice price as well! It is a tough day and we may have to wait until the result in the last race for the final outcome of the jockey’s challenge.

Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW only)

1,4,8 / 4,5,8 / 2,4,9,15 / 1,3,8,13 - cost is $144 to $1

Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

1,2,9,10 / 8,10,12,14 / 7,8,12,13 / 3,9,11,14,16 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

1,2 / 10,12 / 7,13 / 3,9,16 - cost is $24 to $1

Treble (races 8 to 10)

8,10,12,14 / 7,8,12,13 / 3,9,11,14,16 - cost is $80 to $1

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FLEMO v WINNO

WINNO towelled FLEMO last start as promised! This week I am looking to see him come back with vengeance. However, with the departure of Wayne Bennett from the Broncos. the loss of QLD in Origin this year and the fact that he is always hopeless first up from a spell – I think I have him covered this weekend! Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track rating and final scratchings have been sorted out!

Good luck and good punting!

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