WINNO’S INTERSTATE WHISPERS – DERBY WEEKEND – NOVEMBER 3 - FLEMINGTON, ROSEHILL & ASCOT

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, November 1, 2018

WINNO’S INTERSTATE WHISPERS – DERBY WEEKEND

SATURDAY 3 NOVEMBER 2018

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

FLEMINGTON RACES

What a great way to start off Melbourne Cup week!
We will be on a “GOOD” track and the rail is in the true position.

Four Group 1 races – can we wish for any more?

R1 - Wild Planet (6) from 5,4,8 (rough chances 15 & 16)
R2 - Verry Elleegant (2) from 4,5,1
R3 - Osbourne Bulls (1) from 8,6,10 (rough chance 7)
R4 - A Prince of Arran (2) from 10,8,4 (rough chances 6 & 11)
R5 - Written By (1) from 10,2,3 (rough chance 6)
R6 - I Am a Star (1) from 15,7,2 (rough chances 4 & 9)
R9 - I Am Excited (4) from 7,1,6 (rough chances 11 & 13)

Race 7 The 2018 AAMI Victoria Derby (Group 1)

This is an open race and to be fair the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained Thinkin’ Big (1) has been racing consistently in preparation for this race. His win in the Norman Robinson at Caulfield was solid – but was it enhanced by the track bias with leaders having a distinct advantage? Look, nothing can be taken away from this runner as he fought on like a caged lion and went away to win easy. Tim Clark, who I think is looking for his first AAMI Victorian Derby winner, has been riding in sensational form!

The other runner I like is the Godolphin runner Aramayo (2) who is trained by James Cummings and is to be ridden by the NSW BLUES man Tye Angland! Just so you know there is no bias here! Last weekend this runner went around at Moonee Valley in the Vase over 2040 metres. The track was rubbish. He did not appreciate the surface or the tight turning track and Tye has the wisdom to bring him wide in the straight to make his final run at the leaders that had got away from him. He put his head down and worked home solidly and, despite being beaten 3 lengths, I think that it showed that this runner is right up to this Group 1 race this weekend. He will appreciate the large wide open straight at Flemington and keep your eye open for him to be balanced and coming about eight wide and making a run at them in the final 150 metres!

Home Ground (5) is trained by John Sargent who seems to somehow each year find a nice one and bring them through the grades and be competitive for this race each year. This runner won the Geelong Classic over 2200 metres and will definitely run this trip right out. He has the services of Hugh Bowman who will give him every possible chance.

Selections: 2-1-5-12 rough chances 4 & 10

Race 8 The 2018 Kennedy Mile (Group 1)

This is the last Group 1 race on the program.

The Darren Weir and Chris Waller stables have a great representation here with 50% of the 20-runner nominated field. You could say they have a mortgage on the race!

I like the run of last start winner Land Of Plenty (4) who overcome a bad barrier, a hindered run and still managed to get home and win the Group 1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield. He is trained by Darren Weir and will be ridden by Damian Lane again this weekend. I think he can settle off them and storm home again. There is some genuine speed in the race and I am certain that he will be in the finish!

Best Of Days (17) won the Group 3 Coongy over 2000 metres last start at Caulfield flying home late to nail the leaders in the shadows of the post. This is another Godolphin runner and James Cummings could get off to a flying start with two Group 1 winners on Derby day with any luck! Craig Williams takes the ride and he will give the stallion every possible chance to settle and then make a run late.

The John Thompson trained Dreamforce (6) has been crying out for the mile this preparation. He was forced to race forward last start and I think that brought him undone. Look for a more patient ride from Brenton Avdulla looking to get back in behind the leaders and take a sit and get him to settle before using the wide track to cut loose and storm home late.

Chris Waller trains Noire (8). Overlook the run in the Toorak where she was on the wrong leg and really only got a look at them late and stormed home to finish less than two lengths from the eventual winner Land of Plenty (4).

Selections: 4-17-6-8 rough chances 1 & 10

Jockeys Challenge

Looks like a hotly contested field. It could be a triple dead heat if my calculations are correct with the spoils being shared between Hugh Bowman, Craig Williams and Damian Lane.

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

2,4,5 / 1,6,8 / 2,4,8,10 / 1,2,3,10 - cost is $144 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,2,7,15 / 1,2,5,12 / 4,6,8,17 /1,4,6,7,11 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,15 / 1,2 / 4,6,8 / 1,6,7 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,2,5,12 / 4,6,8,17 / 1,4,6,7,11 - cost is $80 to $1

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ROSEHILL RACES

Finally, we get back on a “GOOD” surface and a track that has not been raced on for several weeks.

We should see some competitive racing on a good surface where we can bet with some confidence!

R1 - Time To Reign (1) from 3,2
R2 - Brazilica (5) from 3,1
R3 - Majestic Pedrille (5) from 1,4
R4 - The Lord Mayor (5) from 3
R5 - Tamarack (6) from 5
R6 - Schubert (5) from 8,9
R7 - Dawn Dawn (8) from 3,1
R8 - Cradle Mountain (10) from 4,2,7
R9 - Malalangur (7) from 2,8,4

Jockeys Challenge

Jason Collett to win from a solid book of rides – he may be short in the markets!

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

3,5 / 1,4,5 / 3,5 / 5,6 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

5,8,9 / 3,8 / 4,7,10 / 2,7,8 - cost is $54 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

5,8 / 3,8 / 4,10 / 2,7 - cost is $16 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

3,8 / 4,7,10 / 2,7,8 - cost is $18 to $1

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ASCOT RACES

R1 – Prim and Proper (1)
R2 – Festival Miss (3)
R3 – Masquerade (4)
R4 – Pearls and Prawns (7)
R6 – Galaxy Star (3)

Jockeys Challenge

Looks like a certain win to William Pike win a solid book of rides/

Good luck and good punting!

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