WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 1, 2018
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, November 29, 2018
Doomben again this week.
The track is rated “SOFT” (Thursday morning) and the rail will be in the true position for the entire course this weekend. There is a hot weather forecast for the coming days with the classic Queensland afternoon storms – however, I think we will be racing on a “Good” track come Saturday.
I think I witnessed one of the most courageous rides last weekend in the Listed Recognition Stakes when jockey Jimmy Orman sweated on a rail run before shooting Niccanova along the rails to claim a narrow victory in the race. It takes his riding record aboard Niccanova to 4 rides for 3 wins and a place. You know how it is – when he rides a winner like that – WINNO must join in the celebrations by putting him on my shoulders!
I am packing now getting ready to board the Qantas plane to Hong Kong next Tuesday. But before I head there I will be heading to Kilcoy on Saturday for the final of the Cannonball Series. I hope to see a few regulars on track and for those who have never been maybe it is a chance to head to “The Moonee Valley of the North” and experience country racing at its finest!
Anyway, it is time to look at the nine races. Just a word of advice – I seem to be claiming the first 3 legs of the Quaddie and getting nailed with the last leg each week. Maybe we should take the field and rest easy if I can claim the first 3 legs like I have done in recent weeks.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
A large field to start off a difficult day of racing.
Not a race I can get excited about to be honest. There has been massive support for the Michael Costa trained Spirit and Fire who was posted at $13 in the opening markets and has been smashed into $6. His run first up was solid and obviously the stable think that he has trained on well since that run a fortnight ago.
I like the Tony Gollan runner Unlikely Story (3) to be ridden by Brad Stewart. He is third up this preparation and comes off a solid win at Ipswich nearly 3 weeks ago. He steps up to Saturday grade this weekend, however, in an average BM70 I think he may just get away with this race. I remember him running a solid run behind Winter Bride back in May when he had no luck. This weekend at $5 I think he is great each way value.
Matthew Dunn has Mia’s Got Class resuming from a spell. She has had two solid hit outs in barrier trials and will be competitive here – drawn midfield with Jim Byrne in the saddle.
The topweight is Good Time Charlie (1) trained by Mick Lakey. Overlook his last two runs – he didn’t get the 1350 metres two starts ago and was only warming up last start over 1000 metres. He gets 1200 metres this weekend and this is his ideal distance.
Selections: 3-5-10-1 rough chance 14
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Race 2
Another tough race over 2000 metres greets us for race two.
There are many runners stepping out for the first time over the distance whilst others have just been running ok.
Stanley (5) for the Michael Costa stable was dominant last start over 2200 metres when he led all the way. He goes up in weight but should be thereabouts again.
Magnufighter (6) has been backed in his two starts since resuming and has continued to hit the line strongly. Maybe the extra distance and some speed in the race will see him get into the winner’s stalls. Dale Smith stays aboard this weekend.
I am looking a little wider and putting the Chris Waller trained Jaminzah (4) on top at the crazy odds of $16. Last start he got too far back over a mile and stormed home to be beaten by just 1.3 lengths. He has never won over the distance, however, after reviewing that run and with some speed in the race – a small field as well - I am looking for Michael McNab to time his run and get him home!
Selections: 4-6-5-2 rough chance number 8
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Race 3
The Country Cup Challenge race over the mile. Some of these runners have been attempting to win a race for awhile so anything could occur – look for some value here!
I am going for the 2018 Battle of the Bush winning jockey Justin Stanley to claim another victory with the John Manzelmann trained Sirius Witness (15) at around $25. Last start he won at Mackay over 1800 metres. I think with some good speed here he will get a nice trail into the race and I expect Stanley to hook and swoop wide down the outside of the track!
The stable mate - The Greatest (14) to be ridden by Michael “Muppy” Hellyer - is the more favoured runner at $15 in the markets. He is only lightly raced and has won over the mile.
There is a roughie here in Arms Race (14) and, despite his best form being over 1900 metres or more, do not underestimate this runner at around $51 in the markets.
Since the markets have opened the Matthew McGillivray mount Green Empire (4) has firmed from $7 to $4.80 in the early markets. He is a nine-year-old trained by Tom Button and has a good record over the mile.
Hi Harry (7), trained by Kristie Clark-Peoples and has been unlucky in his last two starts. Back on a turf surface and a mile look for an improved performance.
Selections: 15-13-14-4 rough chance 7
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Race 4
This is another open race – I am not sure what they are doing to us this weekend!
Looks Like Elvis (8) is a horse that I have always had a wrap on. He is trained by Bryan Dais and Boris Thornton partners him for the first time. He normally races well fresh, but he does need the speed on in his races to see his storm home late. With the rail back in the true position this weekend. I think that he is well placed here. His barrier trial last week – whilst not overly impressive - showed me that he is looking good for another nice preparation. At $8 is looks like a nice gamble here.
Natch (4) is a Gollan Racing runner who will jump and lead from barrier 3. Look for Brad Stewart to set the race up and try and keep them all chasing him over the final 100 metres. He is resuming as well and, whilst has never won first up, he has always been very competitive in each of his first up efforts.
The top weight is Bergerac (1) from the Steve Tregea yards who claimed the feature race last weekend with Niccaonva. This Drumbeats gelding goes well for apprentice Michael Murphy – who rides him again this weekend first up. His trial on Tuesday this week looked like he was just blowing out the cob webs. Despite the large weight he has drawn well and should race on the speed.
Adoradancer (13) was well backed last start and got the chocolates. Barry Lockwood trains this runner and she is only third up this weekend and will be competitive again.
Bluebrook (11) resumes as well for popular owners Darren Wilson and Janelle Whalley this weekend. Jimmy Orman who is in great form is aboard again for this first up run. I think he may go better on wet tracks, however this Kelly Schweida Racing trained runner was ultra-consistent last preparation and could burst the bubble of a few runners here.
Selections: 8-4-13-1 rough chances 11 and 12
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Race 5
The two-year-old runners step out in this race – The Brisbane Broncos Sizzling Plate!
Now since this race is named after his precious Broncos – I would expect Josh Fleming to be able to find the winner!
I wonder if he even owns a Broncos jersey??
I hooked into Eleven Eleven (1) on Wednesday at the opening odds of $4.80. Since then it has been smashed into $2.90. This Fastnet Rock gelding trained by Greg Hickman debuts on the race course for the first time after two very good trial wins in Sydney. Hickman seems to target these races over the summer in Queensland and normally comes away with a few winners. This runner looks like he will be ready to go this weekend and has settled in well on the Gold Coast. Jimmy Orman is in the saddle.
Tony Gollan trains Country Cocktail (6) who won a great trial before her debut on a heavy track. I think we can safely forgive her for that run. The stable has a solid opinion about this runner and she will strip fitter for that run after a recent wonderful barrier trial on a good track last week. She has blown in the markets with the support for Eleven Eleven (1) – at $3 now she looks great value. If she gets out any further, I will be saving on her at some sensational odds. Plus, she has had a race start.
Encieh (8) is trained by Kelly Schweida who has had a sensational run with his two-year-old runners this season. He steps out another runner who trialled well when beaten by Vincere Volare (who debuted last week – won easy and ran great time). With that form on the board this runner will be right in the mix.
Cabonchon Lil (5) is trained by Stuart Kendrick and was solid first up here on debut. She will have benefitted from that run and, despite drawing wide, will be ready to fire this weekend.
Selections: 1-6-8-5 rough chance 3
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Race 6
A small field to start the Quaddie this week with a pronounced favourite in the Tony Gollan trained Zoustyle (3). This Zoustar gelding is 3 wins from 3 starts and looks like he will go on his winning way at prohibitive odds of $1.25.
The logical danger is the Matthew Dunn trained The Fire Trap (2) who has an impressive record with 3 wins from 4 starts. I did like his trial last week here over 1000 metres with Jim Byrne in the saddle – if you shop well there is $8 around on offer about this runner who will like 1200 metres first up.
Chris Munce trains Boomsara (1) who resumed when beaten by Zoustyle (3) – however, he did finish off the race nicely and will be better for that first up run.
The favourite certainly may be tested here. I don’t think he is over the line!
Selections: 3-2-1-7
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Race 7
A listed race for the 3-year-old fillies. A nice race here!
Tony Gollan has a great representation here with a trio of runners. Outback Barbie (1), Shamurt (4) and Singular Sensation (10). I think they all have chances here and, to be frank, we could see a Gollan Racing trifecta.
Singular Sensation was sensational in her two runs in Brisbane before she went south to Flemington on Melbourne Cup day when, on a heavy track, after that early deluge she really didn’t fire. Back home now a few weeks to freshen up and Michael Walker in the saddle I am gambling on her to just pip her stable mate Outback Barbie (1).
Outback Barbie (1) returns from a brief campaign in Sydney and an eight week freshen up by Gollan. She returned to the track last week in a barrier trial and destroyed the opposition. She has drawn nicely and has regular jockey and Queenslander Jim Byrne in the saddle. She is a genuine chance!
Gollan’s other runner is Shamurt (4). She won on debut here over 1050 metres back in March and then had some mixed luck in the starts after that impressive win. I think her run in the BRC Sire’s Produce (Group 2) was impressive. Gollan has put blinkers on this weekend for this first up run. She too won a barrier trial in a similar time to her stable mate Outback Barbie (1) – the only drama this weekend is that she has drawn barrier 16. Brad Stewart will need to be at his brilliant best to get her in and will need some luck.
The Michael Costa runner Malahide (3) has been backed heavily since the markets opened firming from $14 to $6.50. You must respect a move like that, so I have put her in my top 4.
Voila (7) gets a look at the Doomben track for the first time. Now being trained out of the Chris Waller yards on the Gold Coast. She could show up drawn midfield.
Selections: 10-1-4-3 rough chance 7
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Race 8 2018 George Moore Stakes (Group 3)
Only a small field to contest the Group 3 featured race this weekend.
Despite the small field there are some serious contenders for the race.
I think the four runners that ran the placings in the Keith Noud a fortnight ago should be in the placings again. They are Most Important (1) and I’m A Rippa (4) trained by Tony Gollan. Victorem (6), who looked desperately unlucky last start, trained by Jenny Graham and to be ridden by Dale Smith this weekend. Tyzone (5) trained by Toby Edmonds on the Gold Coast who was finishing off the race well too. Then you have the new runner on the scene No Annamossity (7) trained by Rob Heathcote and to be ridden by Matthew McGillivray. He can run well fresh and comes off a nice trial win last weekend.
With I’m A Rippa (4) engaged we will see genuine speed in the race.
I think that Victorem (6) may turn the tables on Most Important (1) this weekend – but the two I am worried about are Tyzone (5) and No Annamossity (7) who could show up at decent odds.
Then you have Care To Think (2) who suffered an injury last preparation. This runner struck wet tracks last time in and I believe that the wet tracks are not his go. Back on a firm surface this weekend and with a barrier trial under his belt to get him ready watch out for him to make his presence felt.
An interesting race – many chances – and they will back a few!
Selections: 6-2-1-5 rough chance 7
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Race 9
WINNO’s last race WOES!
Can he tip the winner and get the Quaddie and Treble? Or will he be left crying after getting some value runners in the early legs.
Oink (12) was super first up from a spell. Every time I don’t tip him this little “pig” seems to get home and win! So, I will say that he is a massive chance here in this race, but I am going wide and looking for some value! That probably gives part owner Grant “Miss Daisy” Bell more confidence now – and no Mr Bell I will not be at the track for you to laugh at me after the race as I am running away to Kilcoy! Plus it means if he does win he won’t have to reach into those pockets and expose the moths and buy WINNO a drink!
The Matthew Dunn runner Realing (13) normally is better second up but he gets in well here. I thought his recent trial on his home track at Murwillumbah showed that he is fitter now and will be competitive.
The runner I have tipped is the Scott Morrisey trained Aqua Vite (1) who gets in well with the claim for apprentice Jag Guthmann-Chester. I think with the speed on here he will get a lovely trail into the race and will level out and storm home late. (Well that is what I am hoping).
The Chris Waller pair of Impasse (6) and Fotensky (5) both are genuine chances as well.
Selections: 1-12-13-6 rough chance 5
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Jockey Challenge
Well it looks like a true early battle of NSW versus Queensland! In the BLUE corner we have Brad Stewart and in the MAROON corner we have Jim Byrne. I am going for a BLUE win – GO Brad Stewart!
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
4,5,6 / 4,7,13,14,15 / 1,4,8,11,13/1,6,8 - cost is $225 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3 / 1,3,4,10 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,12,13 - cost is $96 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3 / 1,10 / 2,6 / 1,12 - cost is $8 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,3,4,10 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,12,13 - cost is $48 to $1
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FLEMO v WINNO
I think that is five wins in a row for me now against my good mate FLEMO in out tipping competition. We jagged a few winners last weekend. I will have to put him on notice if he loses 7 in a row there will have to be a punishment! After dressing him up in NSW gear last time I am certain he will bring his “A” game this weekend!
Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track and final scratchings have been sorted out!
Good luck and good punting!
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