WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, DECEMBER 22

By Darren Winningham | Friday, December 21, 2018

EAGLE FARM RACES, SATURDAY 22 DECEMBER, 2018

Not since the 27th May 2017 have I said – we are racing at EAGLE FARM!

The much-anticipated return to the headquarters of Queensland racing occurs this Saturday. I did sneak a preview of the track, the amenities and the set up on Wednesday afternoon. The place looks like it is ready to host a race meeting!

How will the track race – will they lead – will they swoop – will they come wide? Your guess is as good as mine.

The track is rated “GOOD” (Friday morning) and the rail will be in the true position for the entire course this weekend. There is a hot forecast – damn hot (like 37 degrees) forecast for Friday and a warm 33 degrees for Saturday forecast. The traditional afternoon thunderstorm is scheduled for Friday afternoon, but the warm weather should see us racing on a nice even surface.

Since this is our last meeting before Xmas I would like to take this opportunity to thnk all the readers of my tips throughout 2018 a wish you all a Merry Xmas and a safe New Year. I will be back in 2019 – bigger and better!

I must take the opportunity in thanking the trainers – the jockeys – the strappers – the owners and the public for their support throughout 2018 as well. These people make up an extraordinary industry that is passionate about their sport and of course their animal – the mighty thoroughbred!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

The first race on the new racing surface is for the two-year olds.

Dubious (1) is resuming here for the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Victorian based stables after winning the Breeders Plate at Randwick in late September. He is on his way to the 2019 Magic Millions and won a recent barrier trial at Randwick. The stable is confident of an impressive effort in his debut in Queensland.

Devine Factor (8) is trained at the Gold Coast by Michael Costa. This filly has been impressive in winning two trials recently. There has been some support for her since the markets opened. The wide barrier is my only concern – she has drawn barrier 13.

Billy Healey trains Underwood (10) who ran a great second in the trial won by Devine Factor (8) three weeks ago. The run looked good on the video and the Healey stables have a history of getting improvement on race day debut. She is drawn nicely, and Matthew McGillivray takes the ride after Ryan Maloney was injured earlier in the week after winning and being dislodged after the post.

Tony McEvoy has Just Zerene (12) debuting here. My mail is that she has worked well on the track and if she gets a run (as she is an emergency now) she should be the one to beat.

Selections: 1-8-10-12 rough chances 2 & 7

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Race 2

This is one of those stayers’ races that anything can win!

I like the win recently of the Rob Heathcote trained Lucky Captain a fortnight ago when Brett Prebble took over the reins and was able to get him home. Dale Smith jumps back aboard this week – he is riding in great form and Heathcote and he have a wonderful strike rate on Saturday meetings in Brisbane.

Ben Currie trains Mishani Vaidra (5) who stormed home last start over 2000 metres after winning at the mile at Doomben the start before. Jag Guthmann-Chester takes the ride again this weekend. He is looking to defend his 2017/18 Metropolitan Apprentice Jockey title. He may be able to get this runner home. The mare has been well backed since the markets opened – firming from $4.50 to $3.10.

Bronzegate (11) is trained by John Symons and Sheila Laxon and they have tasted success in recent weeks in these distance races. Larry Cassidy is in the saddle again this weekend – last week they partnered at Doomben to win with a $71 winner when Feel Good resumed and won the first race on the program.

Shockfactor (12) is a lightly raced mare who could show up here at some odds – Jim Byrne rides for trainer Paul H Duncan.

Selections: 17-5-11-12 rough chance 16

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Race 3

A good race here – only a small field assembled.

Looks like a nice race for the Gollan Racing trained A Man To Match (1) who returned to the winner’s stall last start with Dale Smith in the saddle. His win was full of authority and he probably deserves the $1.50 price in the markets.

The Matt Kropp trained Trusty Lad (2) has always impressed me and I think that the distance will suit him this weekend. He looks the likely challenger to the short-priced favourite. He has Jimmy Orman aboard who has been riding in great form in recent months.

Selections: 1-2-4-3

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Race 4

I like Unconditional (1) here trained by Michael Nolan in Toowoomba. He is second up this weekend and he has won before second up. He gets Jackson “McLovin” Murphy’s claim of 2 kilograms off his weight. I think that is first up run was good and he would have stripped fitter for that effort. Look for a big performance this weekend. There will be speed on and this runner will appreciate the speed in the race and hopefully will get a clear passage home out wide to storm home and win! I think that the Number 1 (self-proclaimed) Toowoomba strapper Nick Hahn will be taking care of him in the mounting yard!

Archer’s Paradox (2) won last start at Doomben when ridden handy and finishing off strongly. Apprentice Michael Murphy is in the saddle again. He has ridden this filly three times for two wins. Despite being drawn wide in barrier 12 she should be able to get across and take a sit behind the speed.

Red Doulton (8) is my roughie for the race. She is trained by Natalie McCall at the Sunshine Coast and after reviewing her run three weeks ago she could have been unlucky in the running and the straight. She finished off strongly and this weekend will be ridden by Ryan Wiggins. The only concern is coming back from 1200 metres to the 1000 metres of this race.

Steven O’Dea has Maybe Markle (10) in this race. She led all the way two weeks ago and won over 1110 metres by 6 lengths. It was a pretty dominant performance – stepping up to weekend grade this weekend maybe she will be able to snag a place.

Selections: 1-2-8-10 rough chance 7

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Race 5

Another 1000 metre race here – it is a very open affair.

Adoradancer (8) appeals to me here over the shorter sprint distance. I think that coming back in distance from 1200 metres to 1000 metres will suit this Barry Lockwood trained mare. She won second up at Doomben and then could be considered unlucky over 1200 metres three weeks ago. She has been freshened up and I think she will be very competitive this weekend.

My Girl Hayley (4) resumes here for Tony Gollan. This mare has an impeccable first up record with 3 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts. She ran into some solid opposition last preparation and gets in with a reasonable weight here first up. Look for jockey Jim Byrne to place her in the lead or take a sit from barrier 3.

The topweight is Snoopy (1) and as I love and own a beagle named “Buster” I have to put him in my selections. He has a monster weight of 62 kilograms but is a class runner here. Michael Murphy reunites with his old boss Chris Munce this weekend to see if he can post a winner here. He has drawn the rails and should race handy the entire race.

Awesome Pluck (3) is trained by Jenny Graham who tasted success in the Listed Lough Neagh Stakes last weekend with her stable star Victorem. Is she able to post successive Saturday wins in Queensland for her stable? This runner won last start over 1200 metres when the speed was on and he got back and then flew home for Damian Browne – he keeps the ride this weekend.

Selections: 8-4-1-3 rough chances 2 & 10

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Race 6

Tough way to open the Quaddie this weekend.

There are many chances in this race. So many in fact that I will probably miss the winner!

I think that there seems to be some speed and multiple runners who will want to lead. I am just wondering whether that sets it up for a horse to run home late. One of the likely leaders will be Al’s Kingdom (14) trained by Liam Birchley who has been racing consistently. This weekend from barrier 12 maybe he can let the other leaders go and be ridden off the speed by jockey Matthew McGillivray and that could see him win the race.

I note that Matty has had 2 rides on this gelding for 2 wins – can he keep this 100% association going?

Bequeathed (9) went around a fortnight ago and set up a tear away speed and lead at Doomben over the mile. This weekend I think that she will probably lead again with Corey Bayliss taking the ride – but will it be such a break neck speed set?

Surprise Bullet (8), trained by Barry Lockwood, won first up impressively over 1350 metres and was well supported in that run. He had some nice form over longer distances so the step up to the mile does not worry me. He does have some reasonable second up form and the inform Brad Stewart is in the saddle – look for another solid effort here.

Omineca (3) has worked home well in his past two starts over the mile. Despite the bad barrier draw (barrier 16) I think he will settle back and then run home late as he has done recently. Larry Cassidy is in the saddle for this start.

Selections: 14-3-8-16 rough chance 9

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Race 7

A Class 3 race over 1200 metres presents itself here. These races are just getting tougher and on a track that we do not know how it will play – hmm!

I am liking a few roughies here right down the bottom of the field. Crystal Amor (17) is trained by Rob Heathcote and is second up here after resuming at Doomben a fortnight ago. She looked like she needed the run when she paraded and I think may be ready to fire this weekend. Her previous campaign was solid with some nice runs in some good races. I am gambling that she will be fitter for the first up effort and drawn handy in barrier 5 will be given the run of the race by Tegan Harrison.

Gun Bolt (18) is another one at massive odds (around $51 presently). He is trained by Bruce Hill and I keep coming back to his massive run in the 2018 Grafton Guineas where he acquitted himself very well. Since then he has had a break and resumed with a good win a fortnight ago at the Sunshine Coast. He has drawn awkwardly in barrier 16 and may need some luck – but he will be right in this race for mine.

Tony Gollan has Unlikely Story (2) representing his stable here who is looking for a hat trick of wins. He was sensationally backed last start at Doomben and sent out favourite at $2.45. The barrier gods have not been friendly to him this start as he has drawn barrier 20.

Do not despair is my tip! I think he can get back and there is enough speed in this race to allow Brad Stewart to hook him wide and come home late down the outside here.

The Matthew Dunn pair of Saxton Rock (1) and Wallander (5) are not without some chance as well. They are both first up. Both have had some trials and both have raced well fresh in the past. Saxton Rock (1) won his recent trial at the Gold Coast and looked impressive winning that trial.

Selections: 17-2-18-1 rough chances 5, 7 & 15

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Race 8

This race is another open affair.

Divine Dice (12) races handy on the speed and has drawn well in barrier 4. Tegan Harrison has been booked for the ride and she loves to ride and rate horses in front. The five-year-old gelding has had two months off and normally races fairly well fresh (4 starts – 1 win – 1 second).

Cellargirl (14) is second up here and she raced in some higher-class races last preparation. The Jimmy Orman and Kelly Schweida combination have been in great form in recent weeks and they combine here again with this More Than Ready mare. She will be better for the run last start and will be in this race for a long way. She has had a win at the Eagle Farm track prior to the new upgrade – maybe this may assist her on day 1 of the new Eagle Farm track.

Bat A Kat (15) is a Darryl Hansen runner who has always been placed well by the stable in races as his record suggests (11 starts – 5 wins – 5 seconds). He has drawn well and does like the distance – it is another solid ride for Dale Smith.

Hingus Rose (7) is trained at the Sunshine Coast as well by Stuart Kendrick and was impressive last start at Doomben over 1200 metres. She has not raced in three weeks and does like the firm ground. I think that she will be competitive again here this weekend. Damian Browne has two rides for two wins on the Swiss Ace mare.

The rough chances are the Peter & Will Hulbert trained Glitra (10) – if they are leading and winning this one is one you must consider.

The Mechanic (16) is first up after a short break – trained by David Vandyke and to be ridden by the comeback kid Robbie Fradd who rode like a man possessed at Doomben on Wednesday.

Selections: 12-14-15-7 rough chance 10 & 16

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Race 9

The last race on the return to Eagle Farm – what has the day brought us already? How has the track raced? Are people happy – is there praise or criticism?

By now people would have formed an opinion – happy to read the reviews in the media and social media once we finish the day.

We get to the last race and we see the progressive Edmonds Racing team produce Cadogan (5) again here. Jackson Murphy is looking for a hat trick of wins on this Smart Missile gelding this weekend. In fact, the last four rides Jackson has had for the Edmonds Team has yielded 4 wins! He is short in the markets at around $2.70 – he may not be great odds come race time either so if you are prepared to scout a little wider and look for something to beat him this weekend you may just get some value!

Looks Like Elvis (7) has been running well in the past few weeks. This weekend trainer Bryan Dais has gone for a claiming apprentice in Clayton Gallagher to ride the gelding. His three-kilogram claim should be of benefit to his chances. I think the key to this runner is his ability to settle off the speed – be hooked out wide and storm home to race home under his own steam. He steps up to 1400 metres and I think the wide sparse Eagle Farm track could lend itself to enabling this run this week. I thought his run last weekend was very good and he got home well. Let’s hope he can get some luck this weekend!

Desleigh Forster trains Chapter and Verse (11) who ran second to Cadogan (5) last start. He will appreciate the 1400 metres. He hasn’t fared well at the barrier draw with barrier 18 – that may make his assignment a little difficult. However, Jim Byrne has the ride and he will be making sure he gets the best run possible.

My old mate Oink (2) is in the field. He does like 1400 metres. I see that Kelly Schweida has gone for a claim and put apprentice Corey Bayliss on the five-year-old gelding. I think that he has drawn well and if he is ever going to get back in that winners stall this weekend could be his best chance. The race is very competitive but there is some speed and he may get a nice run from barrier 8.

The top weight is Snitch (1) trained by Ben Currie and to be ridden by Jag Guthmann-Chester this weekend for the first time. He is chasing his sixth win in a row. That is no simple feat as he has won from behind after sitting handy behind the leaders and each time has been impressive. He has drawn well in barrier 4 and must be respected.

Selections: 5-11-7-2 rough chance 1 & 4

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Jockey Challenge

I think that Dale Smith maybe the victor this week – but if you like a little value maybe a sly bet on Jackson “McLovin” Murphy may not go astray!

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

5,11,17 / 1,2 / 1,2,8 / 1,3,4,8 - cost is $72 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

3,8,14,16 / 1,2,17,18 / 7,12,14,15 / 1,2,5,7,11 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

3,14 / 2,17 / 12,14,15 / 5,7,11 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,2,17,18 / 7,12,14,15 / 1,2,5,7,11 - cost is $80 to $1

FLEMO v WINNO

WINNO claimed a lucky win last weekend. Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track and final scratchings have been sorted out!

Good luck and good punting!

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