WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 29

By Darren Winningham | Friday, December 28, 2018

This week is the Magic Millions sponsored race-day with many of the horses, trainers and owners fully focussed on their prospective charges at the 2019 Magic Millions Day to be held at the Gold Coast on Saturday 12 January.

Many horses will be making their debut in Queensland at Doomben this weekend so it will be difficult to rate them and line the form up against the local runners who have been going around in recent weeks. The other issue for punters is that the fields generally large this weekend and you should get a good price about any runner you like – especially if they win!

The track is rated “GOOD” (Friday morning) and the rail will be out 1.0 metres the entire course this weekend.

I hope everyone had a wonderful Xmas and got to spend it with family and friends. Hopefully not too many of the jockeys have over indulged in turkey, ham, chocolates and alcohol and will be able to make weight this weekend!

As this is the last weekend before 2019 – I just love using this line – see you all next Year!

Now we are getting into this 9-race program with several featured races!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

I think this race is between two stables.

In the red corner we have Gollan Racing represented by Ignite the Light (4) and Brains (3). In the blue corner we have Ben Currie represented by Mishani Wrangler (6) and Pieridae (10). I think that these two trainers should fill the trifecta and first four – but in what order?

I like Ignite the Light (4) who has the tongue tie being applied again this weekend. He normally races in a forward position and I think third up we will see the best of him. His runs since resuming have all been very good. I think he is a nice way to start off a difficult day. Brad Stewart is in the saddle.

The stable mate Brains (3) is resuming here with Jackson Murphy taking the ride. Now I could say something evil here about the horse name and Jackson – hmmm – but I won’t! Jackson has been in great form in recent weeks so he must have been using his “brains” on his mounts!

He did ride Cadogan in the last for the Edmonds Racing team at Eagle Farm last week and that was a very good ride! This runner resumes this weekend and has had two trials. Despite the trials looking lack lustre on paper – they looked good on video. I expect this runner to be forward enough to make his presence felt at the end of the race.

Mishani Wrangler (6) has won his past two starts at Toowoomba and heads to the big smoke looking to get a metropolitan win on the board for his owners. He gets in well with the claim for Jag Guthmann-Chester and he probably will be ridden in behind the speed as he is drawn wide in barrier 9.

Jeff Lloyd is aboard the other Currie runner Pieridae (10). She has won with Jeff Lloyd in the saddle previously back in February. She has had three runs returning from a spell. Each time she has started favourite and she has won one race and placed second in the other two races. I think that Lloyd may weave some magic here this weekend and this runner could be the smoky to knock out the Gollan Racing runners. We will just have to see how it plays out!

Selections: 4-10-3-6

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Race 2 Racing QLD Summer Provincial Series Final

These races are always tough to line up the form!

I am going to tip the first emergency – so he must still make the field to feature! Dapper One (17) is trained by Les Ross and the next runner is trained by Les Kelly – so it may be the battle of the Les stables in the second race! Captivator (11) is third up here and I think is ready to perform. Overlook the last failure at Ipswich is my tip and have something on this runner each way. Harry Coffey from Victoria is booked to ride this one for the Kelly stables.

Ben Currie has Fomo (1) nominated here. This runner has performed well here in the past and I think prefers this 1350 metres trip. Robbie Fradd is in the saddle for the Currie team and I expect him to be positive from the wide gate and try and get him in the first four or five when they settle soon after the start.

Coral Bay (4) looks the best of the Stuart Kendrick runners in this race. He is looking for four consecutive wins this weekend. Damian Browne has been on top in all three of his last wins and retains the ride. He will settle midfield and will be storming home late.

Bold Shot (3) is another Sunshine Coast runner - trained by Garnett Taylor and to be ridden by Ryan Wiggins. He has won his past two starts and has had five weeks off since his last run. He did have a nice hit out in a trial recently at his home track and looked solid in that trial. Despite having four runs here at Doomben and not running a place, he could be one at good odds to rattle home late.

Selections: 17-11-1-3 rough chances 3 & 7

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Race 3

The distance race of the program – this week we race over 2200 metres under Quality conditions.

I like the Chris Waller trained Tumultuous (3) to win. He meets Magnufighter (5) four kilograms better this weekend for a one length defeat. I think that Magnufighter (5) may not run out the 2200 metres as well so I am not tipping him this week.

Tumultuous (3) stormed home last start under 59 kilograms after being a little flat footed when they turned for home and sprinted. Jockey Robbie Fradd will not allow that to happen again this weekend and I think he could be hard to defeat.

Kiwia (2) is trained by Darren Weir and heads up his team for the assault in Queensland this summer. He seemed to struggle under the big weight in his last start at Pakenham in the Cup – and seemed to not like running out the 2500 metres of that race. He won over 2200 metres the start before when he won the Ballarat Cup in a dominant fashion. I would say overlook that last run and go on the Cup winning performance when appraising his chances here. Again, another nice ride for Harry Coffey.

Endless Days (8) is trained by the dad and son team of Peter & Will Hulbert. I like this runner as he is third up this weekend at massive odds around $41. He has performed well in the past third up (1 win and 1 third) and Matthew McGillivray seems to get the best out of this Lilivale Stud bred five-year-old gelding. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see him rattling home late out wide. I think that you will probably see him go around next week at the Gold Coast. If I remember rightly he won that race last year in his lead up to running in the Magic Millions Trophy.

Chillin With Dylan (9) has a few runs under his belt since resuming from a spell now. He is trained by Ben Ahrens who has been very patient with this gelding. His last start performance, when narrowly beaten by Magnufighter (5) here over 2020 metres, suggested that he is back to his best and is probably looking for this 2200 metre trip this weekend. Ryan Wiggins jumps back aboard this weekend. He has a great association with this gelding having ridden him to three out of his five career victories.

If you want to scout wider some other longer priced chances are Deconstructed (10), I Feel Good (11) and of course Magnufighter (5) who I have said cannot win!

Selections: 3-2-8-9 rough chances 5,10 and 11

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Race 4 Magic Millions Listed Falvelon Quality

This is a very good field assembled here for the Sprint race over 1110 metres.

I like another emergency here if she gets the run. I Am Queen (17) - drawn in barrier 1 - should get a nice run. However, she is a dual nomination and may not take her place in this field. Her recent run at Flemington up the straight over 1100 metres looked good enough to get away with this race.

There will be some speed in this race with horses such as Tarzan (3) and Fiery Heights (8) and Mishani Hustler (16) engaged. It may set the race up for something to pounce late and beat them all.

There are two runners that fit this bill – Isaurian (13) trained by James Cummings for Godolphin (I just love horses who wear BLUE), his stablemate Badajoz (4) and Tactical Advantage (2) trained by Kris Lees. They all have genuine chances with the abundance of speed that should see the race run at a frantic tempo.

I like the recent win and trial of Isaurian (13) who will be ridden by Jeff Lloyd this weekend. He has drawn wide in barrier 13. Barrier 13 number 13 – there are some punters who like this formula for betting! This runner likes to settle midfield and then make a run at the opposition late. He should get those circumstances this weekend.

Tactical Advantage (2) has won here previously over the track and distance. He had a recent barrier trial at Gosford over 800 metres and he was dynamic in winning that trial. He has drawn poorly in barrier 14 otherwise I would have put him on top here. Despite the bad draw he has the 2017/18 Sydney Metropolitan premiership jockey in the saddle – Brenton Avdulla - who has ridden him to two previous victories in his career. I think that he will settle back off the breakneck speed and come home late to make his presence felt in the race.

Mishani Hustler (16) has drawn well in barrier 3 and should be in the box position throughout the race from that barrier. Robbie Fradd has another nice ride here for the Ben Currie stable. He has a better record over 1200 metres rather than this shorter sprint distance and that is my only concern. He has won first up so expect a good performance this weekend.

Some roughies to consider would be Badajoz (4) and Snitzkraft (9).

Selections: 17-13-2-16 rough chances 4 & 9

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Race 5 B.J. McLachlan Stakes (Group 3)

This is a wonderful Group 3 race for the two-year olds. Some of these are looking to bank some extra prizemoney to get into the Magic Millions field in 2019.

Tony McEvoy seems to hold the key to this race with his two runners – Sun City (1) and Just Zerene (14). Just Zerene (14) did not make the field last weekend as she was an emergency. This weekend she is $2 first up on debut against horses with some exposed form – too short for me! The wraps on this Zoustar filly are enormous. She has a barrier blanket and lugging bit applied this weekend. If the wraps are right she should flog this field!

I like the stable mate Sun City (1) who I thought looked a little under done in the parade ring for his debut run in Brisbane at Doomben a fortnight ago. James “Jay Mac” McDonald is in the saddle this weekend. I think at $10 he is a wonderful each way bet – so I will be backing him! I still think this is the runner to beat in the Magic Millions so he will have to comprehensively put this field away this weekend.

Eleven Eleven (4) has had a slight set back with a raised temperature a fortnight ago meaning that he had to be scratched. I caught up with his trainer Gregory Hickman who was still confident that he could make the Magic Millions field but he was resolute in his chances saying that if he didn’t get better they would put him away and concentrate on a mission for the 2019 ATC Group 1 Sires’ Produce Stakes in April over the ATC Championships Carnival.

With such a huge opinion of this Fastnet Rock gelding like this I would think if he has overcome this recent setback he will be ready to put in a solid performance this weekend. I will guarantee that Hickman would not be running him unless he was 100% either. His debut run at Doomben looked good enough to run well here.

Rome (5) is a Peter & Paul Snowden trained, James Harron Bloodstock syndicated Pierro colt who I thought was super on debut in the Breeders Plate at Randwick in September last year. That race was won by Dubious – who came out last weekend and franked the form with a dominating win at Eagle Farm.

Lubuk (6) is trained by Chris Waller on the Gold Coast. His run was noteworthy on debut and I think he will be better for that run but he has drawn terrible in 14 and Larry Cassidy will have to ride him for luck again this weekend.

Selections: 1-5-14-4 rough chance 6

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Race 6 Magic Millions Vo Rogue Plate (Group 3)

Another Group 3 race for the three-year old’s this time.

The two Tony Gollan runners look well placed here – Outback Barbie (6) and Light Up The Room (11). Last start I thought that Outback Barbie (6) got too far back when she was defeated by her stable mate Zoustyle over 1200 metres. She came home well but he was too good and went away for a great win. She has not fared well with barrier 14 given to her this weekend. Jim Byrne may have to take her back and ride her for luck again.

Meanwhile the stable mate Light Up The Room (11) has drawn barrier 4 and should be placed in a forward position in behind the leaders by Brad Stewart. I think at $8 she may just be able to hold off her stable mate when the judge calls a halt to the race.

Boomsara (1) is trained by Chris Munce and has been working up to this distance. I think this weekend we may see the best of him as well as he will be running on Magic Millions Day. Damian Browne is in the saddle this weekend. He has had a month off since his last run where he ran a great second to Zoustyle as well.

I think there is a very interesting runner engaged here – trained by Tony McEvoy and also a Magic Millions horse. This is a Group 3 race and I am giving a rough chance to a maiden runner. Some people will think WINNO has eaten too much Xmas food or lost his mind! Our Toninicconi (14) has drawn well and this runner won a barrier trial a month ago over 1000 metres at Doomben. The win was easy – against maiden horses - but I think she may be able to show up at around the $26 mark. She has a heap of gear changes with a nose Band and standard bit applied for the first time. Maybe trainer Tony McEvoy has found the key to this runner!

Do not underestimate the local runners either. Toby Edmonds trains Granny Red Shoes (8). She can run well fresh but has an impeccable third up record. She may head straight to Magic Millions after this run which would mean that she would be third up there running for $1 million.

The other runner is the Kevin Kemp trained Plumaro (9) who has the winkers taken off and the blinkers back on for this run. She took on Open company last start and now drops back to her own age – she is at good value around $26.

Selections: 11-6-1-14 rough chances 8 & 9

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Race 7 Magic Millions The Buffering

Look seeing is believing and what Victorem (4) did last start at Doomben in the Lough Neagh was tremendous for Jenny Graham who trains at Port Macquarie. Dale Smith jumped off him and was delighted with the performance – the way he let down and how he hit the line and kept in a straight line. On that performance he is in this race up to his eyeballs.

But the old war horse Most Important (1) meets Victorem (4) five kilograms better for that defeat so he may just be able to turn the tables on the younger Victorem (4) this weekend. It will be a great battle here and a race of tactics.

Monsieur Gustave (2) returned to the winners’ stalls at Ipswich last start. He looks the likely leader here. If he gets away with some cheap sectionals in front and gets left alone he could be very difficult to run down.

Flow (6) is another runner for the Godolphin royal blue silks trained in Sydney by James Cummings. He races well fresh and has drawn barrier 1 this weekend. He had a trial at Canterbury over 900 metres on 20 December and despite it being on a heavy track he was very impressive. If there are any chinks in Victorem (4) and Most Important (1) this weekend – he is the one to beat!

Selections: 1-6-4-2

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Race 8 – 2018 Magic Millions Bernborough – Listed

Great race this one.

Coldstone (2) has been impressive in both runs from a spell. He won last start over the mile here in great form. He is trained by Tony Gollan and will be ridden again by Matthew McGillivray. He will race handy and should be provided the run of the race by Matthew and prove difficult to beat again.

Dreams Aplenty (4) should lead this weekend – but if he doesn’t there may be a muddling type race as there seems to be no other genuine leader in the race.

Gaulois (9) is a Godolphin runner with Brenton Avdulla aboard. He ran a nice race in the Villiers a fortnight ago when beaten by 3.2 lengths. He should be competitive here. He is fourth up this run and he may be ridden forward if there is no speed in the race.

Aqua Vite (7) is my best roughie on the program at $51. He is trained by Scott Morrisey on the Gold Coast and finally gets into a race with a suitable distance this weekend – the mile! He has the long priced winning jockey booked to ride this weekend – Ronnie Stewart. I am staying solid with this runner again here. I think that we will see him again at the Gold Coast in a fortnight and he always puts in at his home track. This runner could cause a major upset here and it would not surprise me if he put a hole in many people’s trebles and quaddies on Saturday.

Niccanova (1) was unlucky last start when he was caught wide and didn’t finish off his race like he normally does. He does love the mile here at Doomben and if Jimmy Orman can get him in this weekend and get some luck from barrier 11 he may pop up here.

Selections: 2-9-7-1 rough chance 5 & 14

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Race 9 Magic Millions Nudgee Stakes – Listed Race

The final race on the program – a Listed Race for fillies and mares over the 1200 metres. It is an open affair!

The best mare in the race is the Chris Waller trained Invincibella (1). She has the runs on the board and despite the wide draw and the massive weight she performed well in the recent Melbourne Carnival. She has had a small let up and ran in a barrier trial a fortnight ago where she was not over extended.

Our Crown Mistress (4) from the Waterhouse & Bott team at Randwick won well here first up from a short let up when ridden in the lead and surged away for a powerful win. Jimmy Orman has been booked for the ride. He has been in sensational form in the recent month it is great to see him given this opportunity by a NSW stable.

The Robert Heathcote pair of Stella Victoria (6) and Femme Fireball (12) must be considered as well. I think that Stella Victoria (6) is better suited over this distance of 1200 metres and we should see her be competitive this weekend. She has drawn wide as well in barrier 16. Jeff Lloyd will have to get some luck from out there.

Femme Fireball (12) is a favourite of mine. She too I think will be happy over the 1200 metres this weekend. She has had three weeks off since her last run and again has drawn wide in barrier 17. DDale Smith will need to get his GPS working from out there and get her in and get some cover for her to be competitive here.

Godolphin has Demerara (8) drawn well in barrier 5 and second up here this weekend with Robbie Fradd in the saddle. She is only a lightly raced mare – 11 starts win 6 wins on the board. All six wins have been on a “good” surface and she should get those conditions again this weekend.

Another emergency gets my attention here this weekend and it is another Godolphin runner – Manicure (17). She has drawn well in barrier 10 and will be ridden by Larry Cassidy. This mare raced in Listed and Group 3 races last preparation in Sydney and ran a gallant second to Houtzen (who won a fortnight ago in a track record) in the P J Bell (Group 3) Stakes at Randwick in April. What price would Houtzen be in this field? This runner is posted at $15 – I think this is excellent value. Her two recent barrier trials have been good without showing too much. Despite her best runs being second up each preparation I give her a real chance if she makes the field here this weekend.

Warranty (14) is trained by Peter & Paul Snowden and gets her second look at the Doomben track in her career this weekend. She has had a 7-week let up and trialled recently at Randwick. She is hard to line up but the barrier draw may be in her favour here. Brett Prebble gets his first race ride on the mare.

In summary with the other runners drawn wide who may struggle to get a reasonable position – maybe Jimmy Orman can rate the Waterhouse & Bott trained Our Crown Mistress (4) in front and get away with some cheap sectionals and hold the late challengers off in the final 50m metres.

Selections: 4-17-8-6 rough chances 12 & 14

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Jockey Challenge

Well it looks an open field this weekend. Jim Byrne, Robbie Fradd and Brad Stewart all have some nice rides. Let’s go with a tie between Robbie and Jim!

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

1,3,4,11,17 / 2,3,8,9 / 2,13,16,17 / 1,4,5,14 - cost is $320 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,6,11,14 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,7,9 / 4,6,8,17 - cost is $256 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

6,11 / 1,4,6 / 2,9 / 4,8,17 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,2,4,6 / 1,2,7,9 / 4,6,8,17 - cost is $64 to $1

Value Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,6 / 2,9 / 4,8,17 - cost is $12 to $1

FLEMO v WINNO

FLEMO won last weekend – he did tip well. I did manage to tip the last race first four and trifecta in order! Something! The First 4 paid more than $1200. Thanks to my mystery supporter from the Gold Coast who in his words “won a motza on the last race – but don’t tell the missus WINNO” – hopefully we can get amongst them again this weekend! Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track and final scratchings have been sorted out!

Good luck and good punting!

HAPPY NEW YEAR – see you all in 2019!

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