BIG GUNS TO BLAZE AWAY IN MANIKATO

By Graham Potter | Friday, September 25, 2009

The Group 1, WFA, Manikato Stakes, which will be contested at Mooney Valley over 1200m at Mooney Valley tonight (race time is 9.20pm), has brought together of field of thirteen runners who have a combined total of 65 wins and $14.62 million in prize-money. Who said you couldn’t make money owning horses?

The race rates as a mouth-watering prospect and produces an intricate puzzle for punters to try and solve. A race under Weight For Age conditions, such as the Manikato, often appears to offer the punter some clear-cut direction, but those facts often evaporate as the race unfolds and other variables come into play.

Take Apache Cat for example. No less than an eighteen time winner with just short of $4.4 million in the bank, Apache Cat carries 58.5kg - the same weight as nine other runners, including the likes of Duporth who has won just three races, Turffontein who has won four and Danleigh and Nicconi who have won five each. These particular four rivals of Apache Cat thus collectively come up one race win short of Apache Cat’s total.

Apache Cat has won more Group 1’s than the rest of the field put together. He has won five out of ten first-up (which he is here), five out of eleven over the distance and he is unbeaten in two goes over tonight’s track and distance. These are the facts that appear to give punters a clear direction to follow. At odds of 7.00 (at the time of writing), you would think Apache Cat has to be the value bet in the race.

But then other variables kick in to complicate the selection.

Apache Cat, who is drawn wide, is now a seven-year-old who is now possibly looking for more ground than the 1200m trip he gets here. If this dent now exists in his makeup, it opens the door to others, many of whom also have outstanding credentials, to upstage him.

The bookmakers currently have three runners above Apache Cat in the betting lining up to knock off the champion.

Nicconi, a last start winner at the track (in the McEwen over 1000m) is favourite at $4.00. He is unbeaten in two starts at the track.

Mic Mac, a coming star and stable companion to Apache Cat is in the next line of betting at $4.80. Mic Mac has won seven of his nine starts and last time out finished second to Whobegotyou. He is unbeaten in four starts over tonight’s distance.

Lucky Secret is at $5.00. He has won seven out of eight at this track, five out of five over the distance and three out of three over tonight’s track and distance.

Apart from Apache Cat ($7.00) Swift Alliance is the only other runner quoted under 10-1. Swift Alliance has won six out of seven starts. All six wins have come over 1200m, a distance over which he is unbeaten.

And if you think the puzzle ends there you are mistaken. There is plenty of talent lurking in the balance of the field. Their task is a formidable one though, as it is for the entire field. There will be no ‘gimmes’ here.

The Manikato will be a test of speed, strength and class. It be a real cracker of a race and should make compulsive viewing.

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