WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MARCH 9, 2019
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, March 7, 2019
We’re back at Eagle Farm this weekend.
The track is rated “GOOD” (Thursday morning) and the rail will be out 8 metres for the entire course this weekend. There is some forecast for later in the week – but I do not think that this will affect the track.
The last meeting horses came wide and late and the track seemed to race very evenly across the program. I think despite the rail being out so far this weekend we should see a similar pattern of racing.
Earlier in the week some sad news was released about Tye Angland by the Australian Jockey’s Association. “Tye has some movement in his arms but is unable to walk. Tye remains at the Royal Rehabilitation Centre in Sydney as he continues his recovery and rehabilitation.” This was after a race fall at Sha Tin in late November 2018. It is such sad news and highlights the dangers jockeys and track riders face every day in this sport.
I wish Tye, Erin and their three children best wishes for the future. He is a fighter and hopefully with advances in medicine the prognosis may improve in time to come. If there are any events to support the Angland family, I am sure all people will rally behind these events.
Last weekend Toowoomba apprentice Nick Keal resumed from a ten-month injury. What a way to return to the saddle – two allocated rides for two wins. This bloke is a real talent and I am sure that as he gets back into form and routine we will see him make his mark on racing in South East Queensland. Welcome back Nick!
Racing is warming up in the Southern States – so whilst we have a good program this weekend in Queensland the main spotlight firmly remains on our counterparts in Sydney and Melbourne.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The first race presents a small field of two-year-old runners.
There is not much serious form here to have a genuine bet, so I will be just getting the cameras focussed in this first race and getting into the routine again of taking photos at the races.
Sizzling Babe for Neville Saunders, to be ridden by Bubba Tilley, looks the winner on paper – but I am not too confident.
Kris Lees has a debutant in Queensland who had a run at Quirindi – Just Cosmos (5) - who really looked like she needed the run over 1000 metres at that track. I think the 1400 metres here will allow her to settle more and run home late.
Selections: 2-5-1-3
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Race 2
Another small field over 1000 metres here to face the starter.
I’ve Gotta Nel (4) is a speedster who likes to lead and has drawn well in barrier 1. He always races well fresh and with the claim for apprentice Corey Bayliss looks well placed this weekend.
Steven O’Dea Racing has been in good form in recent weeks. He has Totally Charmed (9) resuming here as well. He has won fresh previously and last preparation raced very well. He will settle off the speed - that is my only concern. He may have a task catching the likely leader I’ve Gotta Nel (4) if he gets away with some cheap sectionals.
The Ben Currie stable landed a winning treble last weekend and is firing. Currie has Crusher (8) resuming here as well. He has had four first up starts for three wins. Jeff Lloyd has been booked to ride this runner first up who has been the medium of some heavy support since the markets opened being backed from $12 into $7 in some markets.
Selections: 4-9-8-3
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Race 3
The distance race on the program – these runners keep going around each week – with a different winner each time!
I am going to forgive the run of Wu Gok (3) last start here a fortnight ago. Jeff Lloyd was drawn wide and forced to race wide and then surge to the front. I think this was the downfall of the runner.
I think drawn midfield this weekend he should get a nice run in behind the speed and a quieter ride will ensure this runner is in the finish when the judge calls a halt to the race. At $10 he represents great value each way.
Robbie Fradd is aboard the other Chris Waller runner – Cormac (2). He raced in the same race as Wu Gok (3) last start. He was vetted prior to the start and really did not fire in the race. I think now he has had a run in Queensland he will be competitive here this weekend.
Tony Gollan trains Perfect Witness (4) and he beat the other two runners I have mentioned easily last start with Matthew McGillivray in the saddle. He has been working through the grades and stepping up in distance each time. The way he won last start suggests that he could create history in Brisbane and win two staying races in a row! He is drawn nicely and Matty is sure to give him the run of the race again.
Selections: 3-4-2-6 rough chance 7
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Race 4
Another tough open field greets us here.
Gollan Racing has several runners involved. Shalwa (12) is the race favourite at $2.40. She was sent out a $1.45 favourite last start and was beaten. She won on debut for her new stable at Ipswich and was impressive that day – maybe it was just a case of the second up blues. She has the addition of blinkers this weekend.
I like one of Gollan’s other runners here, Splitter (7) who had three trials before resuming to racing and winning impressively at the Gold Coast midweek three weeks ago. She has won and placed second up and at $15 I am putting her on top here with the expectation that she will get a nice trail into the race with the speed on. Watch for the distinctive black and hot pink colours to come late and wide here and make their presence felt.
Goodonya Sonja (9) produced a good run at the Gold Coast when defeated by Splitter (7) last start. I think the larger track will suit here better suited this weekend and apprentice Michael Murphy seems to get the best out of her on race day.
Champ Elect (8) is a Munce Racing runner. I have always thought this runner has some ability and I think, back at Eagle Farm and third up this weekend, she may just upset these more fancied runners.
Selections: 7-12-8-9 rough chance 5
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Race 5
A massive Class 3 field has been assembled here.
Francisca (9) was unlucky not to get the chocolates last start here when she was run down late by Benfica Princess over the same distance. She is third up here this preparation – she has a great record third up with a win and a placing from three starts. Last weekend Boris Thornton and Steven O’Dea combined to win with Cool Sequence for me. I am hoping this combination can continue their good fortunes and post another win here.
Chris Munce trains Zoucara (12) who has won three in a row since resuming. Ryan Wiggins has won on her the past two starts with this runner and looks to post a hat trick of wins on the Zoustar filly. Last start she was at the tail of the field and Wiggo balanced her up and let her storm down the outside to win very impressively over 1300 metres. She went away from that field on that occasion and I think that the 1400 metres will be no drama.
Winning Ways (11) is trained by Garry Newham and will be ridden by Michael Cahill. She is first up this weekend without any official barrier trials. Interestingly she resumes over 1400 metres – I think that she must have had a fair bit of work on the track to come here first up. She likes the mid to longer distances and I expect her to be in the finish this weekend. She is only lightly raced with six career starts and she has yet to finish out of the money for her owners.
Toby Edmonds trains Beacon (4) who is second up for his stable. His Queensland debut looked impressive. He has never won over this distance but Edmonds seems to get his runners ready to peak – watch out for this one at odds. He has drawn poorly in barrier 14 and will need some luck from out there.
Selections: 9-12-11-4 rough chance 6
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Race 6
Dawson Diva (3) was very unlucky here last start in my opinion. She was held up at a vital stage in the straight then got bumped and unbalanced and then still made ground late on the eventual winner Tatcee (2). She meets that runner 2.5 kilograms better this weekend for that defeat. I think that she can turn the tables. Ryan Wiggins is in the saddle and hopefully will get some luck in running this weekend.
It could be a unique race to race double for Wiggo if he gets any luck in the previous race.
Robert Heathcote and Baylee Nothdurft combine with Alpine Dancer (1) looking for his first win over 1800 metres. He raced last start over the mile and finished off the race nicely to suggest that he will get the 1800 metres this weekend. The bonus for this runner must be the claim of 3 kilograms for Baylee who is riding with confidence and is getting some great chances in Brisbane from a few trainers. This runner is decent odds as well around the $12 mark.
Tatcee (2) is from the Waller stables on the Gold Coast. She won well here last start with Jeff Lloyd in the saddle and is the pre-race favourite. She was ridden to perfection by ‘The Gov’ last start and despite going up in the weights will be competitive.
Matthew Dunn trains Rocknavar (11) who finished a slashing second to Tactee (2) last start here. She was tightened and eased at a vital stage and still managed to regain her momentum and finish off the race nicely. Robbie Fradd retains the ride here this weekend.
Selections: 3-1-11-2 rough chance 6
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Race 7
I must start with a mention of the speedster Zahspeed (1) who won the 2018 Darwin Cup. He is a seven-year-old that loves to get out in front and set a fierce tempo. He has been sent to the Liam Birchley stables now and the talented front running jockey Tegan Harrison has been booked to ride this runner. This race may be too short for him – but watch out when he steps up in distances over a mile!
I think there is some serious value here in my tip which I base it on the fact there will be genuine speed in the race. The runners should be able to fan and come wide and make up ground. So, for that reason I am tipping the Matthew Dunn runner – Zamex (5) - at around $20 to score a big win here this weekend. He has had a recent solid hit out in a trial around three weeks ago at the Gold Coast.
I keep on coming back to his great win over the 2018 Grafton Carnival when he won the Maclean Cup when settling off them and being set alight and storming home late when Jason Taylor rode him to victory. Matthew McGillivray is in the saddle for this first up run. I am looking for a similar ride and a bold performance!
Chris Waller Gold Coast stables have three runners engaged. Jaminzah (4), Veladero (6) and Impasse (9). All of them performed very well last start with Jaminzah (4) winning here over the same distance. Can he go on to win two in a row? He has a good second up record and Jeff Lloyd remains in the saddle.
Veladero (6) ran on nicely last start when beaten by Jaminzah (4). I think that he will finish in front of his stable mate this weekend.
Impasse (9) is the other runner who resumed with a solid run at Doomben over 1350 metres. I think stepping up to 1400 metres second up will see this runner in the finish. He has won four times over 1400 metres – this makes him an ideal chance in this field.
Tumbler (3) went around last weekend. He has been smashed in the early markets firming from $6 to $3.30. I cannot have him – so that usually means they win! Be warned!!
Selections: 5-9-6-4 rough chance 3
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Race 8
Another massive field for the second leg of the treble and third leg of the Quaddie.
Steven O’Dea has two emergencies engaged here – I think if they get the chance to race they both have genuine chances.
Pressway (17) came home nicely last start and probably is ready to show his best this race from a nice barrier. He has the addition of blinkers for the first time this weekend. The other stable runner is Masterati (18) who has been racing over 1000 metres for his three runs up from a spell. He has never won over these distances and is much better suited over a distance like this. He will be very hard to toss if he makes the field.
Ben Currie trains another emergency – Red Devil (20) - who remains undefeated in two starts from a spell. He will have no problems with the distance either.
Now that I have pushed the case for some emergencies, I must address the runners in the field who are guaranteed a run!
Capital Connection (4) is dual declared but I think will take his place in this field. He is trained by Tony Gollan and he won last start here second up over 1000 metres. He has a good record at the 1400 metres, BUT, has never won third up – although he has had two placings.
King Lear (1), from Gosford, comes back looking for glory at Eagle Farm again after a failure at Randwick last start. But was it really a failure?
He raced on a track where horses struggled to make ground late and win. That is his pattern of racing so it may pay to overlook that run. He has a tremendous record over this distance with eight starts for 5 wins and 1 second! Matthew McGuren stays firmly planted in the saddle – maybe another win in Queensland for another NSW trained runner? I just love these NSW v QLD battles!
Coral Bay (11) goes well second up – probably would be better suited on a wet or heavy track and I think he will need some luck from a wide draw. However, if anyone can get them in and with cover it is Dale Smith who is aboard this weekend.
Selections: 4-1-11-17 rough chances 18 & 20
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Race 9
We arrive at the last race and we are greeted with a 20-horse nomination over the mile. Only 15 of them will take their place in the final field – unless there are more scratchings – but it looks a difficult assignment for punters.
Baccarat Baby (9) was my selection – until she drew barrier 18! She is a good type. She has a very under rated jockey in Michael “Hell Yea” Hellyer. I think I know what I will do. I will buy a GPS from Jay B Hi-Fi and walk the track Saturday morning and map him a fast way home from out there! Truly – all she needed to do this weekend was draw a barrier and I thought she was a good thing.
Eminent (1) is the stablemate from David Vandyke racing on the Sunshine Coast. This Choisir gelding resumed from a spell with a dominant performance at Doomben over 1350 metres. He has won two times second up and despite going up in weight looks well placed again here this weekend.
That brings me back to the Steven O’Dea Racing stable runner – Reckless Choice (4) who won here on 23 February and looks well placed and is well drawn. He should get a good run in behind the leaders. Boris Thornton partners him here again and if he gets the breaks at the right time he should get him home again.
The Tony Gollan runner Get Stuck In (10) goes up in class but down in weight and has the services of Baylee Nothdurft and his 3-kilogram claim which makes him very attractive choice. He is only a lightly raced four-year-old gelding owned by the Peachester Lodge syndicate who have had some nice horses with the Gollan stables for many years. He has been working through the grades and could be one at some odds to get the job done here.
Chris Waller has a couple of runners that could show up as well – Shadal (8) and The Avenger (7) who has been racing in Sydney and has come to Queensland to try and post a victory.
Do not under estimate of overlook Trommelschlagen (12) from the Robert Heathcote stables as well. He returned to the winners stalls last start in a midweek race at Doomben over a mile when he was perfectly rated in front for an all the way win by apprentice Michael Murphy. Murphy retains the ride this weekend and looks like he will probably take up the running again here.
Selections: 4-9-10-1 rough chances 7,8 & 12
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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
4,8,9 / 2,3,4 / 7,8,9,12 / 4,9,11,12 - cost is $144 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,2,3,11 / 4,5,6,9 / 1,4,11,17,18 / 1,4,9.10 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,3,11 / 5,9 / 1,4,17 / 4,9,10 - cost is $54 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
4,5,6,9 / 1,4,11,17,18 / 1,4,9.10 - cost is $80 to $1
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FLEMO v WINNO
WINNO won last weekend – in a dominating fashion as well punters – I destroyed him by $20. I think the writing may be on the wall for a NSW win in Rugby League in 2019 and well I have to say Josh’s Broncos may get a towelling this season as well! Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track and final scratchings have been sorted out!
Good luck and good punting!
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