WINNO’S INTERSTATE WHISPERS - DERBY & DONCASTER DAY - RANDWICK, APRIL 6, 2019
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, April 4, 2019
A massive day this weekend at Randwick with the first day of the Championships with four Group 1 races scheduled. The Ingles Sires’ - The Australian Derby – The TJ Smith Stakes and finally the Doncaster Mile.
The track is rated as soft and the weather is not all too promising heading into Saturday.
The rail is in the true position for the first day of the Championships.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
**************************************************************************************************
R1 - Bivouac (1) from 8,5,9
R2 - Ringerdingding (1) from 3,6,2
R3 - Rocknavar (9) from 6,4,10
R4 - La Scopa (14) from 1,15,13
R5 - Supernova (19) from 15,14,13
R6 - R9 (See extended previews below)
R10 - Multaja (12) from 9,3,7 rough chance if it gets run 21
***************************************************************************************************
Race 6 The 2019 INGLES SIRE’S (Group 1)
I think there will be some genuine speed in this race.
If there is a track bias with the weather and condition of the track Bellevue Hill (5) from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott team may be the one to be on as he will set the pace and is a proven front runner.
The Golden Slipper winner Kiamichi (10), from the James Cummings and Godolphin team, was strong in the heavy going at Rosehill when she led and won the Slipper – I am not sure how she will handle that steep incline in the straight at Randwick if she leads here this weekend. You must respect her as the Cummings and Godolphin team are flying presently and are winning feature races everywhere!
The stable-mate is Microphone (2) who was gallant in defeat when running second on the Slipper. That run was super and sets him up to run out the 1400 metres here this weekend. I think at around the $5 mark he represents great value in this feature race. The way he came from midfield and finished off the race - he looks very hard to beat.
The other runner that made ground in the Slipper was the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained filly – Loving Gaby (12). She finished the race off strongly as well and I note that James “Jay Mac” McDonald has been booked to ride her this weekend. She is short odds. The run was impressive.
Strasbourg (4) is a Peter & Paul Snowden runner who was beaten last start on a heavy track by Bellevue Hill (5) over 1400 metres. He is third up this weekend and I think the Snowden team have had this race in mind for him for a while. At around $20 he is a rough chance to knock off the more fancied runners.
Selections: 2-12-5-10 rough chance 4
*************************************************************************************************
Race 7 The 2019 HARROLDS AUSTRALIAN DERBY (Group 1)
A massive field here. A great race!
You could not miss the run of Arrogant (4) last start in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000 metres when he staged an all-out war over the final 400 metres with the classy The Autumn Sun only to be neaten narrowly beaten by 0.2 lengths. He has had a fortnight between runs but it was a tough effort – will he back up here this weekend? I am thinking he may struggle – however, his form and run in the NZ Derby at Ellerslie was pretty good.
Madison County (2) is a New Zealand gelding who has not seen the 2400 metres in his ten career starts. He is third up in this race and backs up quickly after a solid performance last weekend in the Tulloch Stakes over 2000 metres on a heavy track. Tommy Berry remains in the saddle and I think he may be one at some value here to greet the judge first and claim the Group 1 Derby.
Another New Zealand runner is Surely Sacred (6) who also comes through the form line of the NZ Derby. This runner is trained by Tony Pike who has a knack in getting his horses to peak for their grand final assignment. He was beaten 5.5 lengths in the Rosehill Guineas a fortnight ago. I think now he has had a run and been in Australia a little longer that he will be in the finish somewhere. Damian Lane is riding in superb form and remains in the saddle this weekend.
Frankly Awesome (18) is trained by Kris Lees at Newcastle and his stable is flying now with winners all over Australia. This Frankel filly produced an amazing effort in the Vinery Stud last weekend when beaten by Verry Elleegant. She settled back and stormed home and looks ideally placed this weekend despite drawing barrier 16. I do not see an issue as she will settle midfield and she will be running home late.
Angel of Truth (11) who led all the way in the Tulloch Stakes and was too good for the opposition running away to win by 2 lengths last weekend. I don’t think that Corey Brown will need to lead this weekend and if he can get in and get cover and get him to settle – he may be a roughie that upsets the more favoured runners.
The Godolphin team has a couple of runners – I like Cossetot (13) to be ridden by Glyn Schofield. He won the Tasmanian Derby back in February over 2200 metres on a slow track. He will run out the 2400 metres and could see James Cummings train another Group 1 winner!
Selections: 2-18-4-6 rough chance 11 & 13
***************************************************************************************************
Race 8 The 2019 TJ SMITH STAKES (Group 1)
All I can say is WOW! What a wonderful field of sprinters have been assembled for this race!
There is some speed here – Sunlight (11) – Ball of Muscle (6) – Redzel (1) and even Fell Swoop (8). Now if they are leading and winning you will have to seriously consider these runners. If not you can look for something that will be storming home!
I am going with my heart here – I want to see Trapeze Artist (2) win this race. Tye Angland has a special association with this Snitzel stallion and to see him win the Canterbury Stakes in such fine style a month ago with Blake Shinn in the saddle was amazing. On this day Tye and Erin were present at the track to see this victory. Since that run he had a decent hit out in a barrier trial last Friday at Randwick on a soft track. He has drawn well in barrier 7 – and at $4.50 he represents some great each way value.
Pierata (4), trained by Greg Hickman, put in an enormous run last start in The Galaxy over 1100 metres when defeated narrowly by Nature Strip. He is third up here and has a great third up record. Tommy Berry is in the saddle again – can he land consecutive Group 1 races aboard this runner? Only time will tell!
Osborne Bulls (7) from the Godolphin yards and Sunlight (11) trained by Tony McEvoy clashed last start in the Newmarket down the straight at Flemington. On that occasion Sunlight (11) got the spoils. Back to WFA in this race there is a nice turn around in the weights this weekend. I think that Osborne Bulls is a genuine chance this weekend. He will appreciate the speed in the race and will be storming home late under the guidance of Hugh Bowman.
Sunlight (11) has been in sensational form winning her past two starts in emphatic style. She cannot be left out nor underrated. She has an astonishing record with 15 starts – 10 wins and 4 placings. She is a wonderful filly and cannot be discounted in this field.
The roughie for mine is the 2018 Stradbroke winner – Santa Ana Lane (3). I can never catch this gelding – every time I leave him out he seems to find a place. This weekend he is ideally placed going into this Group 1 event being third up where he has performed well in the past.
Selections: 2-4-7-11 rough chance 3
**************************************************************************************************
Race 9 The 2019 STAR DONCASTER MILE (Group 1)
This race is always a wonderful event that produces so many great winners. The field is very even this year and anything could happen – it may pay you to go wide and look for some value!
I have gone wide here with my selections.
I like the Chris Waller trained I Am Serious (16) who is down in the weights and drawn the rails. She is to be ridden by Karis Teetan from Hong Kong riding at 50 kilograms. She has won three times over the mile and has had the same number of victories at the Randwick track. She is priced around $26 and I really think that she is exceptional each way value in a race where the track may be chopped up and you may need some luck late in the day.
Fundamentalist (18) is trained by the Hayes & Dabernig team. Ben Thompson has been booked to ride the filly who was gallant in defeat a month ago in the Randwick Guineas over the mile by The Autumn Sun. The question would be asked – what price would The Autumn Sun be in this race if he had taken his place in the field? This runner is currently posted at $12 and despite never winning over a mile or on a heavy track she has been very consistent so I must put her in my top selections.
Aloisia (15) is posted at $71 in some markets. She wan second here in December in the Villiers on a soft track. She settled back and stormed home late. I personally think her best form is over a mile. Forget the run at Rosehill in the Coolmore where she drew barrier 20 and had to be ridden from the rear of the field. If you look at the run on video it was strong – she motored home from 16th place at the 400 metres to finish fifth being beaten by just over 4 lengths.
Fifty Stars (15) has drawn poorly in barrier 24 – otherwise he would have been in my top two selections in this race. He comes off some exciting wins in the Blamey at Flemington and then franked that form in the AJAX at Rosehill over 1500 metres on a heavy track. He is undefeated on slow tracks (3 starts – 3 wins) and heavy tracks (2 starts – 2 wins). He is down in the weights at 50 kilograms and Jye McNeil is looking to keep his 100% winning record on the stallion this weekend. He is very prominent in the markets and must be respected.
There are some genuine other chances as well – most of the form comes out of the All-Star Mile at Flemington a fortnight ago. You must respect the grand warrior from the Godolphin team – Hartnell (1). He is an eight-year-old that just keeps on performing and he loves this track and wet surfaces.
The other runners out of that race were Le Romain (2) and Alizee (3) – both who ran well in that race and have solid form over the mile and at this track.
Brutal (20) is a team Hawkes runner who was gallant in defeat last start by Winx in the George Ryder over 1500 metres at Rosehill. He has drawn wide as well in barrier 21 and Glen Boss has been booked to ride at 49 kilograms.
Overall the race is very open, and I probably have missed the winner – if you like something I would suggest that you back it and hope for some luck. But in your exotics – play wide. The trifecta and first 4 may pay a MOTZA!
Selections: 16-18-13-15 rough chances 1,2,3 and 20
***************************************************************************************************
Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW only)
4,6,9 / 1,14,15 / 14,15,19 / 2,5,12 - cost is $81 to $1
Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
2,4,6,18 / 2,4,7,11 / 1,13,15,16,18 / 3,7,9,12 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
2,18 / 2,4 / 1,16,18 / 9,12 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
2,4,7,11 / 1,13,15,16,18 / 3,9,12 - cost is $60 to $1
More articles
|