WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, APRIL 13, 2019
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, April 11, 2019
Well we are back at Eagle Farm this weekend with the track rated “GOOD” and the rail out 3 metres the entire course. The weather looks promising for the rest of the week so we should be racing on a surface that will be great for racing.
The national focus is firmly on the second day of the Championships at Randwick where WINX is having her last start.
Brisbane will take a back seat this weekend to the festivities in Sydney.
Let’s get into the tips this weekend at Eagle Farm.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
A two-year-old race to open the day. Many first starters here. Maybe best to see what happens with the betting on race day – that may hold the key to this race.
John Zielke has been quiet this year with his two-year-old runners. I think that Class Of Royalty (6) may just change that this weekend. This runner went around in The Jewel that was won convincingly by The Odyssey. This was on a heavy track that this runner did not enjoy at all. He was only beaten by 4 lengths.
He has since barrier trialled at the Gold Coast and won in good time. Anthony Allen is in the saddle and it would be a long time between drinks for Anthony as well riding a city winner on Saturday – well I wish them both the best of luck this weekend!
Stuart Kendrick trains Well Prepared (2) who resumes after a notable effort in the Listed Phelan Ready Plate last start. He has had 17 weeks away from the track – no barrier trial form – but this stable is renowned for having them ready to fly first up. Do not underestimate this runner.
The Matthew Dunn Racing team has two debutants here – Getyourgreyon (8) and Ready to Humble (10). They both have performed well in barrier trials. Personally, despite the prices that have been posted I think the better runner from the trial footage is Ready to Humble (10). He has won both his trials and drawn barrier 1 – the fastest way home is along the fence a jockey of note once told me!
There are two reserves that you must be wary of if they get into the field.
The Steven O’Dea trained The Wild One (12) has drawn widest in barrier 13. He has been trialling well and I think this Proven Thoroughbreds runner could be very competitive.
The other one is the Desleigh Forster trained Couldn’t Refused (13) - part owned by Mary Collier who always looks spectacular at the races – and she can pick a winner and trifecta. Mark Oberhart would agree here I am sure!
This runner is resuming here after being gelded and the blinkers have been removed. The trial at Doomben a fortnight ago was super impressive and at around $8 he represents great value. Mark Du Plessis, who has a great strike rate with this stable, is in the saddle. If he makes the field he will be my number 1 selection!
Selections: 6-2-10-8 rough chance 12 & 13
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Race 2
Another two-year-old race … a little better than the first one.
The Tony Gollan trained Epaumada (1) resumes here from a 12-week spell. She recently won a barrier trial impressively. She has a tongue control bit for this start as well for her resumption to racing. Baylee Nothdurft has the ride. She looks a great chance in this race this weekend.
Brett Cavanough has brought some runners to Eagle Farm this weekend from Scone – this is the first of them. Longbottom (4) won on debut at Muswellbrook on a heavy track. The win was impressive despite the track conditions. I think that she will be competitive this weekend.
Brazen Gem (8) is from the Bjorn Baker yards in Sydney. She ran second in the race won by Longbottom (4) – she got too far back and stormed home. Look for her to be ridden a little more aggressively this weekend but she will struggle with barrier 16.
Bold Eos (3) backs up from a run at Toowoomba last weekend when beaten by 1.5 lengths by Gem Of Scotland. It may have just been second up blues – I was not disappointed with the run. I think that she looks well placed this weekend if she can cope with the quick back up.
Euro Belle (9) is trained on the Gold Coast by Gillian Heinrich. She looked solid winning a barrier trial on the Gold Coast a fortnight ago.
Real Sweet (11) won a trial last week impressively for Jason Edwards – the larrikin of Brisbane racing Dale Smith is in the saddle.
Selections: 1-4-3-9 rough chance 8 & 11
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Race 3
Last start Sir Barnabus (5) and Allcash (9) clashed at Doomben with the chocolates going to Sir Barnabus – trained by Jason Edwards who claimed his first ever Saturday Metropolitan winner.
This weekend they meet again – this time at Eagle Farm and Allcash (9) has a weight advantage for that narrow defeat. On that occasion they both raced wide however, Sir Barnabus pushed forward in a move that won him the race whilst Allcash (9) stayed wide. I think this weekend given a better run on this wide track the tables will be turned – so it is Allcash (9) for mine!
High Opinion (3) was sent out at $61 when he made his debut in Brisbane three weeks ago over 1800 metres. I think the extra distance will suit this weekend.
Fighting Teo (4) and Wu Gok (2) clashed a month ago on a heavy track at the Gold Coast over 2400 metres. On that occasion Wu Gok (2) won the race in the final stride. I think that 2200 metres will better suit Fighting Teo (4) and I am looking for a real solid effort.
It is one of these races where each week we get a different result – I am not too confident here.
Selections: 9-5-4-3 rough chance 2
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Race 4
Spin (14) looked disappointing last start when he was sent out favourite here over 1200 metres in a Class 6 race. He drops back to a Class 3 race this weekend and the blinkers have been removed and winkers have been applied again for this run. Larry Cassidy is a jockey change this weekend. He is drawn okay – if he doesn’t win this weekend it is hard to see him getting past the post first on a Saturday in Queensland.
New Horizons (3) I thought performed well first up. This weekend he is second up – I think he will be better for the run and Tegan Harrison get her chance to get back in the winner’s circle.
I think you can forgive the run of the Steven O’Dea runner Totally Charmed (5) at Doomben last start. Just put a line through it and go on the start before here when he was narrowly defeated by Crusher. I think that is good form for this race this weekend.
The NSW runner from the Brett Cavanough stables at Scone looks at Eagle Farm for the first time – Star Boy (4). He is useless on wet tracks so forget his last two starts on wet tracks and go on the previous solid form on good surfaces where he has won well. Interestingly Jeff Lloyd has been booked to ride this runner – the stable like to punt on their horses – so watch for any movements in the markets.
There are plenty of chances here – don’t let me talk you out of anything you may like!
Selections: 14-3-5-4 rough chance 8 & 10
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Race 5
Pizonie (14) is a Gollan Racing runner who was second up last start here when beaten by Rock Beat. This race form has been franked with Rock Beat winning well last weekend at Toowoomba. Pizonie (14) steps up to 1200 metres this weekend and with the claim for apprentice Baylee Nothdurft he gets his chance to post his first win this preparation. He has drawn well in barrier 4 – Nothdurft should be able to provide him with the run of the race from this barrier.
Sundarbans (15) is the stable mate here. She is only a lightly raced filly who is second up from a wide barrier (barrier 14). I think that the first up effort was great – look for a further improvement here this weekend.
River Racer (13) drops back to Class 3 from his previous starts in Class 6. Trainer Les Ross has applied winkers for the first time this weekend – I think we will see a better effort this weekend with Robbie Fradd to take the reins.
Majestic Pedrille (9) is a mare trained at Muswellbrook by Mark Schmetzer. She raced on a heavy track last time and she despised the conditions when she was sent out as favourite. I think back on a firm surface this weekend and drawn handy this Jimmy Orman mount could test these local runners – can I be biased and say GO NSW!
Selections: 14-9-13-15 rough chance 3 & 10
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Race 6
The Edmonds Racing new stable sensation Millard Reaction (6) is nominated here and in at Randwick in race 2.
Where will he run that is the $100 question? Maybe a start in Sydney? If not, he will be a very short priced favourite in this race.
Soxagon (10) is trained by Ben Currie. He was beaten last start by Millard Reaction (6) last start at Doomben. There were some excuses – he began fairly – Jeff Lloyd lost the reins at the 200 metres – but the result would not have changed in my opinion. This weekend he has drawn barrier 15 which is not ideal but he does have the claim for apprentice Baylee Nothdurft.
Trusty Lad (2) and Man To Match (3) are both resuming here. Both have had recent trials – I just think they may show something fresh here this weekend. Trusty Lad (2) is racing without the blinkers for the first time and trainer Matt Kropp stable is in great form after winning the Toowoomba Guineas last weekend with Rosendahl Red (tipped at $35 by WINNO – something for the loyal supporters).
Man to Match (3) resumes here lighter this campaign – he has been gelded in his 3 months away from racing. His trial looked like he could sprint well this weekend.
Munce Racing has Racecourse Road (8) going around here as well after winning over 1200 metres at the Gold Coast. Some people questioned him running out a strong 1200 metres but he dispelled this with a solid win – winning by 4.5 lengths. He does step out into Metro Saturday grade but now he has seen the winning post maybe he can continue with this solid form.
The dilemma is whether Millard Reaction takes his place here.
Selections: 10-2-3-8 rough chance 6
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Race 7
The Chris Waller stables on the Gold Coast have five runners in this race – they all look like they could win as well!
I am going for the horse resuming from a spell Tunero (10) who last went around in the MM Trophy over 2200 metres on Magic Millions day. Now I am going to declare that this may be me talking through my pocket as I did declare it in that race and Tommy Berry gave him an exceptional ride, but he was unlucky in the straight – with some luck I think he would have won (ho-hum).
He has barrier trialled. He does race well fresh and he has drawn well. Larry Cassidy is in the saddle. The other thing that I think may favour this runner is that he will appreciate the wide expanses of the Eagle Farm track and should be storming home late down the outside.
See The Master (11) who has been racing consistently – a jockey change this weekend with Jeff Lloyd taking over.
Le Juge (1) was impressive at Doomben a fortnight ago! I actually think he is more a Doomben horse and will struggle here – plus he has a big weight – then again Robbie Fradd is a better judge than me and he has stuck with this runner.
Brains (4) from the Gollan Racing team is racing well. He may be able to be ridden off the speed and flash home late. He has won at the track and distance.
Selections: 10-11-4-1 rough chances 2 & 5
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Race 8
An Open sprint here over 1000 metres – it is a large field that will challenge us!
I must start with the Grafton topweight here – Belflyer (1) – trained by John Shelton and to be ridden by Ben Looker. This runner, despite being 7 years old, keeps winning and putting in. He has an exceptional first up record with 8 starts for 4 wins and a placing. He gets conditions to suit – with some speed in the race as well. He will be stalking them and making a run late – maybe the weight may stop him.
Fiery Heights (2) returns home after a mission to Sydney where he ran into heavy tracks. I think he will go better on top of the surface back on his home track. He has drawn well and has Corey Bayliss in the saddle. Look for him to lead – but can he hold on?
Edmonds Racing has From Within (7) nominated here. He was first up last start here and was found out in the final stages. I was not disappointed with the run and he did fight on in the final 100 metres. Maybe he just needed that to blow the cobwebs out. Jeff Lloyd has been reunited with this runner this weekend and he has won twice before on this mare. Maybe this is the change that will alter her fortunes?
Guard of Honour (6) resumed last start here three weeks ago for the Kris Lees stables. He run was excellent. He is down in the weights for that loss. He could upset them here.
Havasay (4) was the winner of the 2018 Grafton Ramornie (Did I mention Grafton Carnival 2019 – it is fast approaching – July 2019 mark it down in your calendars). Well, this Liam Birchley runner is resuming this weekend after a solid barrier trial.
He opened at $31 in some markets and has been sensationally backed into $11. You must respect this money as this horse is a quality runner. I would probably like to see him next start over 1200 metres – then we will see the best of him – BUT, in saying that, the speed in this race will provide him a great cart into the race.
Selections: 2-7-6-4 rough chances 1 & 14
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Race 9
The debut of the Matthew Smith Tonsor (7) in Brisbane was super impressive. The way he won last start suggests he is a promising gelding going places. He looks like a standout selection here this weekend. He has a wonderful record – 8 starts and 5 wins! Robbie Fradd is in the saddle again this weekend.
Shogun Sun (10) is second up here – he has won previously second up. He drops in weight for this assignment and a senior jockey goes on this weekend. Maybe this will assist his chances.
Scallopini (11) protested against the stable mate Cool Sequence (race 8 – number 14) when narrowly defeated last start here. There has been some money for this runner in the early markets firming from $7 to $4.80. Ironically Matthew McGillivray rode Cool Sequence last start and is aboard this runner this weekend.
The Chairman (6) performed well first up as well and will strip better for that effort.
Snitch (12) is on a quick back up after the Toowoomba Cup Carnival last weekend. He is stepping up to 1200m and should be more suited over the trip.. He has a tremendous third up record and Baylee Nothdurft’s claim will enhance his chances here.
Selections: 7-10-11-12 rough chance 6
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Race 10
It is the last race here – a NMW win race. It is a tough race to finish off the program. I am not a fan of the race.
Constant Flight (2) from the David Vandyke stables on the Sunshine Coast is probably the most promising runner in the race. He just needs to put it all together on Saturday and he should win this race with Jimmy Orman in the saddle.
Monaco Playboy (10) is a despised outsider at around $41. I thought his run last start when he flew home and just ran out of time to beat Secret Mo gives him a genuine chance here this weekend.
Calzini (16) is from the Bevan Laming stables. This runner is above average, and I think she is well placed in this race. She is down in the weights and drawn perfectly in barrier 3. She should get a good run.
Surprise Bullet (5), trained by Barry Lockwood, is a genuine chance first up from a spell. He has had two recent trials. He just has barrier 18 to contend with this weekend.
If you have some $$ from earlier in the program it may be prudent to take the field in your Quaddies and Trebles in case something odd happens here!
Selections: 2-16-10-5 rough chance 1 & 15
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Jockey’s Challenge
We have a battle supreme this weekend! The young kid on the block Baylee Nothdurft up against a Kiwi Larry Cassidy and a South African Robbie Fradd. It looks a tight tussle on paper presently with their respective books of rides. I am staying solid. The kid from Aussie riding in great form – I just wish he was a NSW lad - Baylee Nothdurft to claim a narrow victory!
Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW only)
4,5,9 / 3,4,5,14 / 3,9,13,14 / 2,3,10 - cost is $144 to $1
Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,4,10,11 / 2,4,6,7 / 7,10,12 / 2,10,16 - cost is $144 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
4,10 / 2,7 / 7,10 / 2,10 - cost is $16 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
2,4,6,7 / 7,10,12 / 2,10,16 - cost is $36 to $1
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WINNO V FLEMO
Well – well – well. Josh had the weekend off last weekend and passed the QLD baton to his good QLD mate and fellow Toowoomba resident racetrack caller – Anthony Collins – and WINNO trounced him! To be fair we were on fire on races 1 to 5 tipping every winner between us – we thought we could tip the card! Our tips for the rest of the day were solid as well. Thanks to the punters who took the time out to message me about our good tipping last weekend.
This weekend FLEMO is back – he always is strong coming off a spell – so maybe he will claim a victory! Oh yes – Anthony Collins there was a penalty involved in losing to me last weekend – but we will hold it over to the Grafton Carnival 2019! Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes of scratchings!
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