WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, MAY 11, 2019
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 9, 2019
DOOMBEN 10,000 DAY – SATURDAY 11 MAY 2019
Doomben this weekend with the track rated “GOOD.” The rail is in the true position for the entire course. The weather looks promising for the rest of the week so we should be racing on a surface that will be great for racing.
The Doomben 10 000. This is a wonderful race – with some great winners.
Just two years ago Redzel won the race ridden by Jim Byrne. I was pleased to see that HRO’s Graham Potter caught up with Jimrecently and he is on the road to recovery from recent shoulder surgery.
Jake Bayliss has made his mark in Brisbane since arriving last weekend with a winning double at Ipswich last Saturday – personally I thought he was looking good to ride four winners until the rain came and the meeting was abandoned. After this effort I will have to search him out this weekend and go toe to toe with him for 60 seconds with WINNO!
I will speak slowly as he has been riding in New Zealand.
Then you have Dale Smith the jockey who pokes his tongue out and just loves getting muddy. He has been challenged as well. So, I will see him as well this weekend – let’s see what he has to say in person!
Racing heats up for the next five weeks in Queensland with our first Group 1 race this weekend. I would suggest that you get in quick and book your tickets for the coming weeks as the Brisbane Racing Club has many packages across the feature race days and they seem to be fast selling out according to the posts on social media.
Racing is here – time to preview Day 1 of the Channel 7 Brisbane Racing Carnival presented by TAB!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day
**************************************************************************************************
Race 1
An early start to the day - 11.25am.
Tony Gollan has launched an assault on this race with four nominations – but one early scratching and they all of his remaining runners have genuine chances.
I actually like Prue’s Angel (5) who is first up since a run on Magic Millions Day where I thought she ran well. She is back to her on own sex this week. She is undefeated first up from a spell with three wins from three starts. She is drawn well and is around $10 in the early markets. Brad Stewart has ridden her six times for 3 wins and 2 placings.
Gollan also saddles Of The Day (3) to be ridden by James McDonald. This team were successful last weekend on the Gold Coast when they combined with Coldstone to win the Australian Turf Club Trophy (Listed). Maybe they can start the day combining again with a win here? This runner normally performs better second up but does has a distinct liking for this Doomben circuit. “Jay Mac” aboard - this could enhance her chances.
Baylee Nothdurft has the ride on the other Gollan Racing runner – Dream Kisses (11). She is up in grade since her last preparation but she gets in with a light weight and Baylee’s claim will be an addition bonus. Unlike the other two runners she has had a recent solid hit out in a trial in which she ran second.
Toby Edmonds has engaged Blake Shinn to ride the pre-post favourite – Awake the Stars (4) who also resumes here. She has had two good barrier trials at the Gold Coast to get her ready for this run. The last trial Shinn rode her, and she looked good working home well over 1000 metres. She has an excellent first up record with two previous wins. She must be respected here.
Femme Fireball (2) resumes here for the new partnership of Anderson Heathcote Racing who have had some exciting success since launching the partnership. This mare is very tough. She races well fresh and I would think whatever she does this weekend she will improve on second up – keep your eye on this one. The tongue poking, mud-covered Dale Smith (see photo) rides her this weekend.
Queen of Kingston (8) is trained at Lismore by Daniel Bowen – and he can train one to the moment. She raced last start at Randwick on a soft track in the Country Championship. She will be ready to run here this weekend – watch out for her.
Selections: 5-4-2-3 rough chance 8 & 11
**************************************************************************************************
Race 2
Again, Gollan Racing has some good chances in this race. Could they train the first two winners on the program?
Gollan has Natch (4) who comes off a very dominant win at Toowoomba going around with five weeks between runs. This runner is proven when he has his races spaced well out and again Brad Stewart rides this one.
Ef Troop (7) won a recent barrier trial impressively. He has drawn well and Jeff Lloyd has been booked to ride. This runner has always shown some great potential and was set a tough preparation last start racing at Group 2 and Listed races interstate.
With 29 weeks between runs and that barrier trial he looks well in here but I just would like to see him win before I get aboard. I will probably be proven wrong here this weekend – but $3.30 and favourite I am looking for some better value. The winkers come off for the first time for this run.
Magic Fox (13) resumes here for Kelly Schweida Racing after a 14 week freshen up. He was very good last preparation and is down in weights here compared to some of his opposition. I think that he will be difficult to beat here drawn ideally in barrier 2.
Jimmy Orman will work hard all week to get down to 54 kilograms to ride this one – this to me gives the three-year-old the thumbs up for mine. Pacifiers go on this runner for this run – an important gear change!
No Annamossity (2) is another Anderson and Heathcote Racing runner who resumed first up in the Listed Ascot on a heavy track. I was happy with the run. He now has had three weeks between runs, and he has won second up. A firm surface this weekend and some speed in the race – look for him to be rattling home late.
I’ve Gotta Nel (9) and Bring It Home Pop (10) could be rough chances to upset the more fancied runners. In fact, someone thinks that Bring It Home Pop (10) from the Matthew Dunn yards at Murwillumbah agrees with me with him being well supported since the markets have opened – firming from $41 to $19.
Selections: 13-4-7-2 rough chances 9 & 10
**************************************************************************************************
Race 3
Tony Gollan keeps the theme going here as well – six runners nominated! I think he may be able to fill the placings here as well.
He has Splitter (13) and Tokoriki Lad (14) that I like. I couldn’t really split the two, so I went for the barrier draw as Splitter (13) has fared better drawing barrier 7 whilst Tokoriki Lad (14) has drawn wide in barrier 15.
To be fair Tokoroki Lad will probably settle midfield and storm home late so the wide draw may not be too detrimental. James McDonald is riding Splitter (13) whilst Tokoriki Lad (14) has Jeff Lloyd aboard. New Zealand versus South Africa!
The emergency is Galtero (17) again trained by Gollan – if he is able to make the field he may be one to fill a place at massive odds with Larry Cassidy in the saddle.
Cruze (16) from the Barry Lockwood stables drew wide last start and I think that was the downfall of the runner. Corey Bayliss takes three kilograms off for his claim this weekend and he has drawn very well in barrier 5. Fourth up and he has been racing very consistently – maybe I should have put this one on top. I have nearly talked myself into it actually! Stuff it – I am changing!
The Avenger (10), trained by Chris Waller on the Gold Coast, put in a solid effort last start and will be better for the run.
So Spirited (9) drew wide last start and hasn’t received any luck this weekend either drawing barrier 17. Last start he was ridden to perfection by Blake Shinn, who retains the mount this weekend, and was run down late by his stable mate Pressway. There looks to be some speed in the race – if Shinn can get him in and get cover he still could be one to get the chocolates here.
Selections: 16-13-14-10 rough chances 9 & 17
***************************************************************************************************
Race 4
Queensland Day Stakes – Listed level – our first big race for the day!
Godolphin and James Cummings seem to be targeting the races in the last few weeks with some exciting prospects.
This weekend is no different as they have brought Multaja (12) north after a great run in the Hawkesbury Crown (Group 3) where she just could not pick up the winner late over 1300 metres. With the slight increase here to 1350 metres this weekend I think she is ideally placed. Kerrin McEvoy rides her this weekend. She is short at around $2 but looks a great chance.
The topweight Mishani Hustler (1) is a bit lighter this start – well he has been gelded! He also has had a stable change now being trained by Les Ross. This runner tries his heart out every time he goes around. Taylor Marshall is aboard again and he must be respected.
Munce Racing has Racecourse Road (3) looking to win a hat trick of races. Munce seems to have found the key to this runner. He always showed a great amount of promise but has returned to racing with two very dominant wins. This is his toughest test to date – but winning form is always good form!
Vega One (4) was solid three weeks ago when he ran a gallant second behind Plague Stone at Listed level. He did seem to get a prat in running around the 250-metre mark. He would not have beaten the winner but I think, with that run, he will be ready to step out well here this weekend and with the extra distance looks well placed. Blake Shinn in the saddle is a bonus.
I was in Hong Kong and caught the win of Crafty Spirit (2) last start at Eagle Farm over 1300 metres. This Danny Bougoure trained runner was very impressive. He powered to the line late and could be one at odds this weekend to cause a major upset. Matthew McGillivray is in the saddle and must be buoyed with confidence after a great double at the Gold Coast last weekend.
Selections: 12-4-1-3 rough chances 2 & 11
**************************************************************************************************
Race 5 Rough Habit Plate (Group 3)
I think that the form from Sydney and the Frank Packer Plate (Group 3) from three weeks ago will hold up here. I’m talking about the Chris Waller trained Dealmaker (1) and the John Thompson trained Purple Sector (4) who finished second and third to the winner of that race The Chosen One.
They both look the ones to be on here and I think they should finish the same way again. However, tactics will play a massive part in this race and we saw last weekend Blake Shinn get the better of James McDonald in the two year old race on the Gold Coast when Stronger won the Ken Russell Memorial race. Maybe Jay Mac can reverse that decision in a Group 3 race here this weekend.
The only speed I can find in the race is the Stuart Kendrick trained Masstoo (10) – if he does not run in this race things may get a little more interesting.
Matt Kropp trains Trusty Lad (2). He is very dour and Jimmy Orman has a great affiliation with this colt. He will be running home behind these two Sydney runners. He does possess a good sprint late. Do not underestimate this local runner.
Tony Gollan trains A Man To Watch (3) and he has been working back to peak fitness. He is third up this weekend and does like Doomben – watch out for any betting moves for this runner.
Gollan’s other runner – Light Up The Room (11) could fill a place at odds.
Selections: 1-4-2-3 rough chance 11
**************************************************************************************************
Race 6 Moet & Chandon Champagne Classic (Group 2)
The feature race for the two-year-old’s.
This is an open race. Dubious (1) from the Maher and Eustace yards was sensational over the summer and ran well in the Magic Millions when narrowly beaten. He has drawn well in barrier 7 – just not sure how he will fare first up here.
The Gary Portelli trained Disruptor (7) comes off a run and a few trials in the lead up to this race. He is only a maiden but may just be ready to break through in a big race.
Waterhouse and Bott have brought Czarson (4) north again for another preparation in Queensland. He has drawn wide in barrier 14 but normally will settle and race home late. I thought his first up effort nearly 3 weeks ago places him right in this race. There is some speed in this race so he may be benefit from the fast pace.
The Snowden Racing team have Strasbourg (3) in the race coming out of Group racing in Sydney. He looks well placed as well here and they did strike last weekend with their other two-year-old in the Ken Russell Memorial. I think with the firm track, drawn well and Kerrin McEvoy aboard - he is over the odds at $10.
The Stuart Kendrick trained Jagged Edge (5) has won his two career starts and has been impressive in both runs. He steps up to 1200 metres this weekend – will he run out a strong 1200 metres? Only time will tell.
Jimmy Orman has elected to ride this runner and not The Odyssey (2) who has drawn terribly in barrier 15. Talking about The Odyssey (2) he races well fresh and resumes after an eight-week let up. If he takes his place in the field, he will test these – but will need luck from the wide barrier.
It is a tough way to open the Quaddie – you may have to play wide here.
Selections: 3-4-7-5 rough chances 1 & 2
***************************************************************************************************
Race 7 Member’s Handicap (Listed)
This race is over a mile.
It is a very tough, open field that will test punters this week.
I potted Gem Song (10) last start and I was left with egg on my face when she was too good for them in destroying the field in the Gunsynd Classic (Group 3) under a superb ride by Blake Shinn.
This weekend she drops in weight, gets a firm track and will be ridden by Ronnie Stewart with Shinn electing to ride the Anthony Freedman trained Plein Ciel (4). Gem Song (10) has drawn barrier 1. I think with the genuine speed that appears to be in the race he will box seat fourth or fifth and will be coming home at a rate of knots late.
Plein Ciel (4) is one that you must respect. His form over a mile is very good. He is heading towards the Doomben Cup next weekend, so he will need to show something here in the lead up to that race. He will run out a solid mile and will certainly make his presence felt in the Cup that will be raced over 2000 metres.
Archedemus (7) comes off an all the way win in the Hawkesbury Cup (Group 3) where he dictated terms with Corey Brown in the saddle and really made the other runners look second rate. He does go up in the weights for that victory this weekend and meets some of the opposition worst at the weights. He looks again to be the likely leader in the race.
Will he get left alone and front and get away with some cheap sectionals in front and steal the race? Only time will tell – but that victory was outstanding, and he has a pathway set by trainer Glenda Markwell to the 2019 Stradbroke Handicap. If he is to be a serious contender in that race you would assume that he will be ultra-competitive here this weekend.
Order Again (9) is the locally trained chance from the wily Brian Smith yards. Many have been critical of his effort last start on a heavy bottomless track here when defeated by Hallelujah Boy who ran very well last weekend in the AD Hollindale Cup (Group 2) on the heavy track at the Gold Coast.
I think that there were several things against him in that race and you should totally overlook the run. His previous win, on firm footing, was tremendous. I think that there may have been issues with his breathing and this may have inhibited his final effort. An important gear change this weekend with a tongue tie going on – watch out for this runner to spoil the party.
Tom Melbourne (3) was a gallant second (yet again) to Archedemus (7) in the Hawkesbury Cup (Group 3) a fortnight ago. He doesn’t win too often but knows how to find a place and normally cause chaos with my multi bets. For that reason I am not leaving him out here this weekend.
Music Magnate (1) was an amazing effort last weekend on the heavy track on the Gold Coast. This is his first effort over the mile for the Bjorn Baker Racing team. I see that Jimmy Orman has been booked to partner the Written Tycoon gelding this weekend. He goes better on top of the ground and has performed well in the past backing up quickly.
Now I have confused you all – let’s go for Gem Song to lead them on a merry chase in the straight!
Selections: 10-7-9-3 rough chances 1 & 4
***************************************************************************************************
Race 8 TAB DOOMBEN 10,000 (Group 1)
The big race of the day – the 2019 TAB Doomben 10,000!
Punters are flocking to Nature Strip (2) with some massive bets already been laid in the lead up to the race. He has firmed from $2.90 to $1.85 since the markets opened. I think come race day he will get back out to even money! So, if you missed the good odds you may have to wait a while!
His record is astonishing with 15 starts – 10 wins and 2 placings – but he can turn in a shocker! There has been ear muffs added to his gear this weekend.
Osbourne Bulls (2) has been called the season’s bridesmaid after some brilliant efforts in Group 1 races across the current season. He comes here off a gallant second to Pierata in the All Aged Stakes (Group 1) where some could say he was unlucky. Some could say Tommy Berry rode the perfect race on Pierata whilst others will say he does not seem to like 1400 metres as much as 1200 metres.
For mine I am going with the last excuse! I think he is better over 1200 metres and this week he gets that distance, a firm track and Kerrin McEvoy in those royal blue silks of Godolphin to give him strength!
Not since 2013 with the win of Epaulette and 2011 with Beaded have Godolphin won this race. It is a race where they seem to fill placings without too many victories. I am hoping come Saturday afternoon the royal blue army from NSW will be victorious in the TAB Doomben 10,000. I see that James Cummings has added blinkers as well to this runner – maybe this will be the stroke of genius to turn his fortunes around!
This race can sometimes turn up a rough result as well for punters but these two runners have been backed to the exclusion of the rest of the field.
White Moss (12), trained by Jason Coyle, comes off an unexpected win last start winning the Sapphire Stakes (Group 2) when she started at $20. She beat Irithea on that occasion and that horse has franked the form winning at Hawkesbury a fortnight ago. Kathy O’Hara remains in the saddle and Jason Coyle has called upon good friend and proven Group 1 performer strapper Johnny Wright to strap the mare in the big race this weekend.
Champagne Cuddles (11) is a runner that interests me. This Bjorn Baker trained mare this time last year was spoken about as a prospective Stradbroke winner. She was sent out as favourite in that race and ran third as a three-year-old.
Since then she has raced up to a mile – on all types of tracks and surfaces and she has been ultra-consistent. If there is one here that could cause an upset, it well could be her. Blake Shinn, who has been in inspiring form since basing himself in South East Queensland for the Carnival, takes the ride and she will be right in this race.
Outback Barbie (13) is a genuine local chance for Tony Gollan. She missed a race at the Gold Coast last weekend with the track becoming a quagmire and Gollan scratching her. She has the addition of blinkers as well and she was to have worn them last weekend in her first start from a spell.
I think this race may have been not on the radar, however, despite the alteration in her program I am sure she will acquit herself well. Her barrier jump-outs and work on the track have been exemplary if you listen to the regular track watchers.
Manuel (4) led then up in the All Aged Stakes (Group 1) last start before being swamped late. He is trained by Tony McEvoy in South Australia who does have a knack of getting his team to fire in Queensland. Personally, I like him for later in the Carnival in a race like the Stradbroke.
In saying that he, along with horses like I’m a Rippa (3) and the well backed favourite Nature Strip (2), will put some serious speed into the race this year. It well could set the race up for something to swoop home late and knock them all out!
Selections: 1-2-11-12 rough chances 4 & 13
***************************************************************************************************
Race 9 Kirin’s Chairman’s Handicap (Group 3)
A massive field to finish off the day. They always make it hard in the last leg of the Quaddie and Treble!
You could call this a Wallerathon – with the trainer nominating 6 runners – all with reasonable chances as well.
I think Chris Waller’s top two chances are Haripour (5) and Tumultuous (6) who will be ridden by James Mc Donald and Corey Brown respectively.
I was happy with the first up effort of Tumultuous (6) in the Hawkesbury Cup over the mile. He normally comes to hand quickly and races well fresh. He was a gallant second here Christmas time when beaten by Tally and then went on to win the Magic Millions Trophy over 2200 metres.
This weekend he races second up here – he has won second up. I probably would have been more confident with him racing at Eagle Farm as he probably can get out wide and zoom home, but I still think this weekend, despite the wide barrier draw, he will be somewhere close to winning when the judge calls a halt to the race.
The stable mate is Haripour (5) who raced last start in the JRA Plate (Group 3) at Randwick and was sent out favourite and, on face value, was disappointing. He has had three attempts at 2000 metres for no placings. I think that maybe he could show up here – but the odds-available are not appealing to me.
Le Juge (9) is another Waller runner who comes off three consecutive wins but he has had a look at this distance three times – for three failures.
Our Libretto (7) is trained by Grahame Begg and Jamie Kah is in the saddle. She won on this runner two starts ago at Caulfield over 2000 metres. Last start he raced in the JRA Plate at Randwick and really did not like the tempo of the race.
It may pay to overlook that run and go on the previous win over 2000 metres. He will need some luck as his pattern of racing is to get back and make a sustained run. If they are leading and winning late in the program my tips here may be out the window as both will be storming home late!
The Candy Man (19) is an emergency that may need some luck to make the final field here. He has won his past three starts in extremely impressive fashion. He is trained locally by Barry Baldwin. He is on a quick back up from last weekend on the Gold Coast where he won very well.
He was vetted after the race as he was galloped on, however, he will be looking to take the biggest step of his short career this weekend in this grade. He must have done well this week at the stable for Baldwin to back him up – he just needs some luck now in making the final field.
Igraine (12) which should probably be “Migraine” – that is what I am experiencing trying to line up all the interstate and overseas form in this race! This mare is a New Zealand runner making her debut in Australia for Robert Priscott. She has raced well and won on all racing surfaces and seems versatile where she can race forward or race in the middle of the field.
Tactics will be vital in this last race and “Long Priced” winner Ronnie Stewart has been entrusted with the ride. She is $16 in some markets – maybe a longer priced winner to put some value in the exotics on Doomben 10,000 Day.
Selections: 6-7-5-19 rough chances 9 and 12
*****************************************************************************************************
Jockey’s Challenge
We have a close contest this weekend featuring all NSW jockeys – Blake Shinn, James McDonald and Kerrin McEvoy. Would you believe I have them all finishing on equal points with their current rides! A triple dead heat!
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
2,4,7,13 / 9,10,13,14,16 / 1,4,12 / 1,4 - cost is $120 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (race 2 to 5)
4,13 / 9,16 / 12 / 1,4 - cost is $8 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,4,5,7 / 4,7,9,10 / 1,2,11,12 / 5,6,7,12,19 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,4 / 7,9,10 / 1,2 / 6,7,19 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 9)
4,7,9,10 / 1,2,11,12 / 5,6,7,12,19 - cost is $80 to $1
Value Treble (races 6 to 9)
7,9,10 / 1,2 / 6,7,19 - cost is $18 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
I claimed victory last weekend as FLEMO was whinging from his warm race calling box whilst the rest of us were getting wet and enduring the elements. This weekend we are back – it is officially Carnival time. A massive weekend in sport in Brisbane with the NRL Magic Round! I think FLEMO will need more than magic to claim victory on Day 1 of the Channel 7 – TAB Brisbane Racing Carnival. Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes of scratchings!
Good luck and good punting
More articles
|