WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, MAY 18, 2019

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 16, 2019

DOOMBEN CUP 2019 SATURDAY 18 MAY 2019

Doomben this weekend – a nine race program – a massive day of racing is scheduled.

The program features Group racing – one Group 1 – one Group 2 and one Group 3 race as well as three Listed races. One of the better race days on the Queensland race calendar!

The track is rated “GOOD” (Thursday morning) and the rail will be out 2 metres for the entire course this weekend. There is some rain forecast in the coming days. Correctly orecasting the weather in South East Queensland is like winning the lottery some weeks! Look if the rain comes and the track is downgraded then you will have to reassess what you do. In the past few meetings when the track has been downgraded the leaders have had a distinct advantage in the races. So, bear that in mind!

I see that young apprentice Michael Murphy has the ride on the Steve Tregea trained Prioritise in the Doomben Cup. This will be his first Group 1 ride – good luck mate – I am sure he will be in front at some stage – maybe if the rain comes his chances will be enhanced.

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Race 1

We start off the day extra early this weekend at 11.15am – that is morning teatime for me!

The race is a BM 75 over the mile.

The Anderson Heathcote Racing team have two nice chances here - Fabulonh (7) and Our Mantra (9). Fabulonh (7) comes off a last start win on a heavy track at the Sunshine Coast. He does seem to like the heavy surfaces with four of his six career wins coming on these surfaces. Our Mantra (9) has resumed and is fourth up here this weekend. I think that he will be better over the mile and with Sean Cormack in the saddle he may be a nice chance at reasonable odds.

I Am Impinge (4) is trained by Edmonds Racing on the Gold Coast. He has had the blinkers removed for this start. Despite drawing wide in barrier 13 I do think he has been screaming out for the mile and I will be surprised that his distinct red and yellow silks will not be seen somewhere in the finish.

Dansez (12) is trained by Kelly Schweida – she resumed with a good second to Le Juge on a soft track and then has struck heavy tracks in her last two starts. Both times she has finished behind the talented The Candy Man. I think on a firm track this weekend we may well see the best of her.

Mymming (6) was up in class and over the mile for the first time this preparation last start. The run was okay. This weekend look for a dramatic improvement with Jimmy Orman in the saddle.

Selections: 12-4-6-9 rough chances 7 & 11

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Race 2

The Candy Man (1) has 62 kilograms to carry and has drawn barrier 19 – sure he will get back, but will trainer Barry Baldwin send him around here with those things against him this weekend? That is the real question that may hold the key to this race.

The form out of that Gold Coast race where The Candy Man was so impressive should be where we should focus our attention.

The two runners in that race that hated the wet track were Ruby Guru (3) and Tunero (4). On a firm surface this weekend I would expect that they would both show some serious improvement. Both runners are around the $15 mark for this race. Sure, The Candy Man will be difficult to beat if he accepts – but with a massive weight and a wide barrier I am prepared to take him on.

Gold Ambition (2) trained by Michael Costa also ran in the same race and was defeated by just 0.5 lengths. It was another great tactical ride from Blake Shinn. This weekend the stable has gone for Jag Guthmann Chester and his 2-kilogram claim to attempt to turn the tables on the early market favourite. This runner has drawn barrier 18 – so he will need some luck, however, his normal pattern of racing is to settle back in the field and race home strong.

Chris Waller has some other runners right down the bottom of the field that look to have some serious chances here.

Guise (16) is a three-year-old filly. She won last start at the Sunshine Coast over 1800 metres. I think that if she can win this race or even perform well she may be a genuine Oaks chance in a fortnight. This is not the traditional course to the Oaks as most of them will go around in the last race on this program The Roses (Group 2) today, but with this restricted handicap conditions maybe she can gain some more confidence with another win.

She has won three in a row since debuting on the Gold Coast and winning her maiden back on 30 March and is rapidly working through her grades. Winning form is good form – keep your eye on this runner.

Waller’s other runner is Duchess of Lennox (18) who won her maiden at Scone on 18 March. Since then she won a Class 1 race and I think was desperately unlucky last start at Kensington over 1800 metres. Again, she is only lightly raced having four career starts and looks to be a chance at some odds.

I suppose the key to these two Waller runners is they are both on trial for the Group 1 Oaks – their place in that field will depend on how they perform this weekend.

Selections: 4-16-2-1 rough chances 3 & 18

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Race 3 Bill Carter Stakes (Listed)

The two-year race for the fillies.

Edmonds Racing has Betaima (3) resuming here from a spell. She won a trial at her home track a fortnight ago – the trial win was strong. She raced well last preparation and looks to have benefitted from her 18-week spell. I am thinking that she will be hard to beat here this weekend with Blake Shinn aboard.

Gem of Scotland (2) is one of my favourite horses. She is undefeated in four career starts. She trialled earlier this week (Tuesday) at Toowoomba and won by 6.25 lengths in good time. On that hit out I had her winning the race – well nearly even being unbeatable – but then she drew barrier 16. I am sure that jockey Jimmy Orman will take her back from the wide barrier and there does appear to be some good speed in the race – so do not completely write her off in winning her fifth start from as many races.

The other Toowoomba runner is Miss Cavallo (1) trained by Michael Nolan. She has had seven weeks since her last win here over the track and distance. I think that she looks well placed again here this week. Dale Smith stays aboard. He has ridden her to both career victories.

Niedorp (4) from Gollan Racing comes back from a Sydney campaign where she drew a heavy track and she never handled it. Forget the run and go on her gutsy win here prior to that over 1200 metres where she led all the way in a very dominant performance.

Perudo (6), the stable mate of Niedorp (4), ran a strong race in the Gold Coast Jewel – nine weeks ago. The run was strong – and again on a heavy track on which I think she did not appreciate. Look for a solid performance this week.

Selections: 3-2-1-6 rough chance 4

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Race 4 JRA Plate

The race is dominated by the top two in the betting in the race Zoustyle (1) and Plague Stone (3). They both have reasons to tip them – I could be weak and bracket them as they look a great quinella!

Look I think that Zoustyle (1) from the Tony Gollan yards is a superstar – his record supports those comments with 5 career starts for 5 wins. He has been scratched in recent weeks due to the tracks. He is forward and has been working well on the track. He ticks more than a few boxes.

Then you have the new runner on the scene the Godolphin owned, James Cummings trained Plague Stone (3). His debut in QLD could not have been any more impressive when he demolished a good quality field in the Mick Dittman Plate (Listed). He has had 4 weeks since that run and a solid barrier trial at Kembla Grange that he won by 9 lengths! Kerrin McEvoy is aboard. I am going for the royal blue silks here – solely on the fact that Zoustyle is first up and may just find that last 75 metres a struggle! But it will be a great battle down the straight!

The interesting runner here is the New Zealand trained Sheezallmine (10) who is on debut in Australia. She would probably enjoy a wet track as well. Her run last start in the Group 3 Cambridge Breeders in New Zealand was very good. Prior to that she was undefeated in 3 starts. I think that as we get further into the Carnival and the distance gets longer - and if we get some wet tracks – she will come in to her own. Jason Collett takes the ride this weekend – she could surprise us all!

Selections: 3-1-10-6

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Race 5 Bright Shadow (Listed)

This race is a tough one. There are many chances – lining them up as well is posing some trouble.

I am going out on a limb here and going to say that the newly formed Anderson Heathcote Racing team may get there first listed winner here with Stella Victoria (7). She resumed in the Group 2 Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm three weeks ago at WFA. She is now back to her own sex this weekend and has Jeff Lloyd aboard (riding on a stay after being suspended last weekend by the stewards). I just think she will be too good for them.

Quilista (1) produced a superb run in the Gold Coast Listed Silk Stocking when narrowly defeated by Demerara. Blake Shinn rode her on that occasion and the ride was 11 out of 10 – was just beaten by a better one on the day. This weekend a jockey change with Kerrin McEvoy to take the reins.

Test The World (8) from the Bjorn Baker Racing stables did not handle the track in the Gold Coast Silk Stocking. The track was heavy and was chopped up come the last race – she hated it! She features in the stewards reports with jockey on the day Tim Clark reporting that she didn’t handle the track. Overlook the start and go on her previous runs on firm surfaces – she will be right in this race for a long way! I thought she was unbeatable at the Gold Coast, but once the rain came and the track became a bog her chances were very limited.

River Racer (6) loves this Doomben track. She is trained by Les Ross and is on the quick back up after winning last weekend – maybe she can get another win on the board here. Strapper Corey McConnell was over the moon last weekend when she won and will be bringing her to the races this weekend. A jockey change is to be noted with the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 jockey Michael Cahill taking the ride.

Selections: 7-8-1-6 rough chance 2

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Race 6 Chief De Beers (Listed)

The sprint race of the day – what a field we have assembled as well.

Meet Mr Taylor (14) from the Kelly Schweida Racing team faces his toughest test to date stepping out in Listed company. He is very good and a speed machine and will appreciate this 1110 metre trip at Doomben. I thought he was going to be very hard to beat – down in the weights and after a superb first up run winning by 6 lengths he looked the likely stand out here. Then the barrier gods allocate him barrier 15. That turned me off him and to be fair there looks like there is solid speed in the race and they should go very fast in front.
If that is the case, there are two runners who will enjoy sitting off the speed and storming home over them late. They are the Kevin Kemp trained Mr Marbellouz (2) and the James Cummings trained Isaurian (7).

Let’s start with Mr Marbellouz (2) who was ridden to perfection last start in the Listed TAB Ascot over 1200 metres by apprentice Baylee Nothdurft. The ride was very good – he was in trouble – he didn’t get to the lead but Baylee never panicked and the son of Love Conquers All let down and finished off the race strongly. He has a month since that win. I am just not too confident with him coming back in distance for this run. But one thing is for sure and certain - he will be right in the finish when the judge calls a halt here.

Isaurian (7) is my tip for the race – team Godolphin! I have always had a great respect for the Takeover Target Stakes (Listed) race that is run at my old home track at Gosford. This runner was held up early in the race, got no luck and still managed to finish off the race nicely and run a gallant third. Some people may say he had every chance – I do not agree! He has had 17 weeks since that start but he has had two solid trials. I think that he is the one here this weekend – a nice mount for James McDonald.

Whypeeo (9) is second up after resuming in the Bat Out Of Hell on the Gold Coast. I do not believe he handled the heavy track there and he does race well second up. We get to see Sam Clipperton back in Queensland for the first time aboard this one after his return to Australia after a riding stint in Hong Kong.

Selections: 7-14-2-9 rough chance 13

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Race 7 BRC Sprint (Group 3)

Coldstone (2) won the Prime Ministers Cup on the Gold Coast in such a strong effort on a heavy track that everyone thought he would struggle on. The run was awesome under the circumstances and the superb ride by James McDonald is worthy of mention.

Tyzone (6), trained by Toby Edmonds, was out of luck in his last run in the Hall Mark Stakes (Group 2) at Randwick. He was held up, checked near the 100 metres and went to the line hard held – he was never tested or extended. A run that MUST be overlooked. If he brings his best form here this weekend, he will beat this strong field. Blake Shinn has stayed loyal after being out of luck in the ride last start – he will make his presence felt!

To be fair both runners mentioned above are around the $10 – they both look wonderful value.

Desleigh Forster trains the impressive Chapter and Verse (10) who resumed with a solid win last start. He opened in some markets at $5 on Wednesday and has been sensationally backed into $2.90. I cannot have him at these prohibitive odds – but he has been in great form. He is part owned by Mary Collier. She will be looking to be in the winner’s stalls with this runner looking to post his first Group win of his career. He probably will win the race – I hope he does for Desleigh, Mary and the other owners – but his odds are too short for mine. Mark Du Plessis remains aboard this weekend.

Selections: 2-6-10-7 rough chances 5 & 14

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Race 8 2019 Doomben Cup (Group 1)

The WFA conditions of this race does make it a little easier to narrow down the chances.

Chris Waller has five nominated in the field of 16. I think he may trifecta the race with his runners. I am going on the form of the Hollindale Cup – despite the race being run on a heavy track.

Life Less Ordinary (2) won the race despite having no real heavy track form. It was a solid win and he looks like he may go on with it now he has won. He beat his stable mate Mister Sea Wolf (3) who gets his first look at 2000 metres in the Doomben Cup this weekend. I just think that on a good track he may turn the tables on his stable mate.

Then there is the 2018 Queensland Oaks (Group 1) winner Youngstar (13) who is second up here. She really did not get through the wet conditions at the Gold Coast. She is proven Group 1 winner and will appreciate the firmer surface this weekend. Kerrin McEvoy has a good association with this mare and usually gets the best out of her.

Gem Song (16) is on the quick back up from last weekend. Kris Lees has Blake Shinn back aboard. The biggest question to be answered here is – will she run a solid 2000 metres? If she does, she looks like she will be very difficult to beat!

The stable mate is Big Duke (1) who is a proven Group race performer. He is probably on a mission for the Queensland Cup later in the Carnival – but at $41 he may give jockey Sam Clipperton his first Doomben Cup win!

Archedemus (6) won well last weekend in the Listed Members Handicap over a mile. He is on debut at this distance and his first run at WFA conditions as well. He probably was going to be in the market until he drew barrier 17 for the Cup. Corey Brown will still probably be able to get across from out there but will he be left alone in front and get the cheap sectionals that he got last weekend.” I think not!

Tally (8) is the Godolphin runner who has a win on this track. I think at $41 he is over the odds. Despite drawing wide as well I know he will run this distance out and Tim Clark is riding in superb form.

Selections: 3-2-13-16 rough chances 1, 6 & 8

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Race 9 The Roses (Group 2)

The prelude to the Queensland Oaks for many of these runners. I mentioned earlier in race 2 that Chris Waller has two runners on trial there for the Oaks – Guise (16) and Duchess of Lennox (18). By now we should know if they are serious contenders moving forward.

This race can turn up some rough results each year – so be warned – you may need to consider taking the field in your quaddies, trebles and exotics!

Scarlet Dream (1) looks the obvious winner here coming out of some solid Sydney performances over the recent Carnival. She was gallant in defeat in the ATC Oaks (Group 1) when defeated by Verry Elleegant. I was surprised to read earlier in the week where the trainer Mark Newnham said that she would probably not contest the QLD Oaks as he originally thought the race would be run at Eagle Farm over 2400 metres – he now proposes to take on the boys in the Derby with this Sebring filly.

She is $2.50 this weekend and at the set weights gets into the race very well. Blake Shinn retains the ride. I am just concerned with her coming back in distance. She won a recent barrier trial at Warwick Farm over 1200 metres on 3 May – just to blow out the cobwebs. The other issue I see is that I cannot see any genuine tempo in the race to cart her into the race. I may be wrong, and a jockey may take something to the lead and set the race on fire – but for now it looks an unlikely proposition.

In saying that the other Sydney runner Aliferous (2), from the Kris Lees stable, who won the Adrian Knox (Group 3) when she was $41 could also have been considered a touch unlucky in the ATC Oaks. My dilemma with this runner is does she prefer wet tracks as most of her notable efforts have been on wet surfaces? She was held up in The Oaks at a vital stage and lost all momentum – she looked disappointing on paper but their looked to be some genuine excuses.

I keep on coming back to the locally trained Winning Ways (3). Trained by Garry Newham and to be ridden by Matthew McGillivray. She has posted a hat trick of wins in her recent starts and looks to post the fourth here this weekend. I think that both of her last wins at Eagle Farm and Gold Coast were above average. She does face this higher opposition here for the first time, however, if she is to be a serious contender for the Queensland Oaks in a fortnight she will want to run a good race here.

She has not gained any favours drawing barrier 18 that is another concern – however, I think she will race forward and I expect McGillivray to try and get her placed in the top ten runners as they leave the straight – let’s hope she does not get caught wide and cover any extra ground.

Etana (14) is from the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stables. She ran in The Bracelet on the Gold Coast on the heavy track in the race won by Winning Ways (3). Her run was full of merit and jockey Clayton Douglas was excited with the run on dismounting. She probably didn’t enjoy the conditions and she should be better for the experience.

On The White Turf (15) is trained by the newly formed team Richard and Michael Freedman. She is only lightly raced and her run in the Packer Plate (Group 3) last start at Randwick was good. She probably got a little too far back in the field on that occasion – look for her to race in the first seven or so runners this weekend.
Rosendahl Red (6) is a local knock out chance. She is on trial for the first time at 2000 metres this weekend for Toowoomba trainer Matt Kropp – Jimmy Orman aboard and massive odds of $81.

The other runner that I have had a lot of respect for is the Matthew Dunn trained Rocknavar (10) who had no luck in her recent Sydney campaign in the Adrian Knox and the ATC Oaks. She is a duffer in the wet and proved that again in the Bracelet on the Gold Coast. I keep going back to her solid win over 1840 metres at Eagle Farm on 9 March when she was ridden by Robbie Fradd. She cruised into that race and put the opposition to the sword. I have been waiting for her to get a firm track to race on. This weekend she might get those conditions. Robbie is back in the saddle – she is $31 in some markets. I expect that she will be competitive this weekend and could pose a serious threat to these more fancied runners.

So now I have covered most of the field – good luck in finding the winner in the get out stakes this week!

Selections: 3-1-2-14 rough chances 6,10,15

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Jockey Challenge

The Sydney jockeys dominated last weekend at Doomben. Looks like the same scenario this weekend with Blake Shinn, Kerrin McEvoy and James McDonald all having a nice book of rides again. I will go for Kerrin McEvoy this weekend to just pip the other two!

FLEMO v WINNO

FLEMO claimed a good win in our tipping competition last weekend at Doomben – it was a close battle. I am looking to seek revenge this weekend. We are only three weeks away from the first State of Origin match as well at Suncorp Stadium – where we will see a NSW BLUES victory! Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track and final scratchings have been sorted out!

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

1,2,4,16 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,3 / 1,6,7,8 - cost is $128 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

4,16 / 2,3,6 / 3 / 7,8 - cost is $12 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

2,7,9,14 / 2,6,7,10 / 2,3,8,13,16 / 1,2,3,14 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

7,14 / 2,6 / 2,3,13 / 1,3 - cost is $24 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

2,6,7,10 / 2,3,8,13,16 / 1,2,3,14 - cost is $80 to $1

Good luck and good punting!

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