WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MAY 25, 2019

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 23, 2019

EAGLE FARM RACES – SATURDAY 25 MAY 2019

Eagle Farm this weekend with the track rated “GOOD” and the rail is in the true position for the entire course. The weather looks promising for the rest of the week, so we should be racing on a surface that will be great for racing.

Ciaron Maher has made a BANG on the Brisbane Winter Carnival winning feature races in the first two weeks.

He has Dubious lined up in the Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1) – he is only a two-year-old and will be taking on the older horses. If he can manage to win the race it will be an amazing training feat for the Maher/Eustace training partnership. If Dubious can win, he will become the first two-year-old in 61 years to win an open Group 1 race in Brisbane. Nikita Beriman has been booked to ride at the allocated 48 kilograms.

Chris Waller has had a quiet Carnival to date by his standards. However, at Canterbury on Wednesday he managed to train his 200th winner in NSW for the season when Savigne won with Kerrin McEvoy aboard. With the Carnival heating up this weekend at Eagle Farm – maybe his anticipated domination and success may eventuate!

The program looks wonderful on paper – I just seem to have no luck at Eagle Farm of late as the pattern of racing is inconsistent. I may watch a few races before having a bet later in the program.

As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day

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Race 1

I think Tony Gollan may start off the day on a winning note with Ef Troop (7) who resumed at Doomben and led all the way and was pretty impressive. In the parade ring he looked very well – he has grown and filled out since his last preparation and he looked like he would take some improvement from the run. Despite the wide barrier draw – barrier 18 this weekend - I expect him to probably take a sit and rush home late.

Of The Day (16) is another Gollan runner. She has drawn well here and goes down in the weights. She has shown up at big odds in the past – this weekend she is $21.

The Godolphin team have had some success so far over the Carnival and they saddle up Fragonard (12) – drawn well and second up this week. His first up run was okay when he ran third – I am looking for a sharp improvement here this weekend.

Noble Boy (6) makes his debut in Queensland after a last start win at Randwick. His past two wins have been impressive on rain affected tracks. Prior to that he has some solid form on good tracks. He has a very impressive record with seven starts for six wins. He has had seven weeks since his last start and is very short odds at $1.80. I think I will be gambling against him for his first run here.

Ghostly (13) may be the runner who stalks these runners. He comes off a solid win in the Wagga Wagga Plate where he was first up after a short let up and ran a very good time. He has drawn wide in barrier 17. However, he has the services of Michael Cahill who could win on a broomstick at the moment!

Selections: 7-12-6-13 rough chance 16

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Race 2

A very open and tough race here.

Some last start winners lining up that could go on with their winning form.

Cruze (8) won last start at Doomben with Corey Bayliss in the saddle. It was a 10/10 ride with Bayliss sending him to the line late and in striking fashion. He was heavily backed last start and I think the barrier certainly helped him. This weekend he is drawn the rails – I just hope that he gets some luck and gets out in the straight. I am looking forward to him going on with his winning form this weekend for trainer Barry Lockwood.

Angel Dane (16) is trained by Steve Tregea and will be ridden by Larry Cassidy again this start. I was in Hong Kong when she won here over the same distance. I was cheering her on that weekend (I did manage to back and tip her). This weekend I can see no reason why she cannot go on and post another win as well. She is drawn well and races well when her races are spaced apart.

The runner I am fearful of is Spirited Again (9) from the Steven O’Dea Racing team. He has drawn well and the blinkers go on again. He was narrowly beaten by his stable mate Pressway two starts ago over this track and distance. Look for any moves in the betting with this one. The stable usually do like a punt if they like their chances.

The Avenger (10) was second to Cruze (8) last start and to be fair was working home very well over 1350 metres. The slightly longer distance, a nice barrier draw and Eagle Farm all play into his favour.

There are multiple rough chances that you must consider. The Toby Edmonds trained Awake The Stars (6) is one – however, she has been treated terribly drawing barrier 18.

Sofie’s Gold Class (14) resumed here midweek with a dramatic win over 1200 metres with Michael Cahill in the saddle. She has won second up and does love this distance – a bad barrier is a distractor – barrier 15.

The Munce Racing stables have Racecourse Road (18) nominated in this race and later in the program. He drops in weight and was impressive two starts ago here over the same distance when he led and destroyed the opposition. He too has not fared well at the barrier draw – he has barrier 17.

Selections: 8-16-9-10 rough chances 6, 14 and 18

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Race 3 Grand Prix Stakes (Group 3)

The lead up race for the Queensland Derby for many of these runners.

I like the Bjorn Baker runner fresh on the scene from Sydney – Fun Fact (5). I come back to his run in the Group 3 Packer Plate when he finished behind The Chosen One and Purple Sector (who has since won very well in the Rough Habit Plate).

Since then in typical Baker fashion he has raced him in some easier races and last start he won over 1600 metres carrying 61.5 kilograms. He is back to his own age and set weights I think that he will be running home strongly – another solid ride for Michael Cahill.

The Gollan Racing trained A Man To Match (2) ran a gallant second to Purple Sector in the race I mentioned above. The run was notable, and I think stepping up to a longer distance he will be better suited this weekend.

There are two Kiwi raiders engaged this weekend here. They are Lord Arthur (8) and Bobby Dee (9). They both have consistent form in New Zealand – in fact Lord Arthur (8) won at Ellerslie (Group 2) over 2100 metres last run. He defeated Bobby Dee (9) in that run. I reviewed the video – it would be hard to see the result being reversed, however, in saying that it may come down to the way in which they have both travelled to Brisbane. I will be looking at them both in the parade ring – I think we may see the best of them in the next couple of weeks.

Borazon (7) is a Chris Waller runner who has a victory at this track and distance – Robbie Fradd rode him on that occasion and is reunited with him for this run.

Selections: 5-2-8-7 rough chance 9

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Race 4 Moreton Stakes (Group 3)

Quilista (4) was very good last weekend when she won at Doomben. She had an easy run in front and was never challenged. Kerrin McEvoy rode her like the best runner in the race and she did the job storming away to win by 3.5 lengths. I don’t see anything taking her on this weekend, but she meets a tougher field. If she backs up well after the run from last weekend she will be very hard to knock off here.

Oregon’s Way (2) has been freshened since her last start in the Coolmore (Group 1) where she maybe did not have the best of luck in running. This runner has come to Queensland previously and performed well fresh. At $10 she is good value as in Group 3 races she has had seven starts for two wins, seconds and thirds. She seems to thrive in this grade. Michael Walker rides her for Mick Price.

Savatiano (8) is another runner from the “Blue Army” (Godolphin). Last start at Scone in the Dark Jewel Classic (Group 3) she was nailed in the last few strides after leading from about the 200 metres. Tommy Berry is in Brisbane this weekend – his first appearance for the Carnival to ride this runner. She has been in very consistent form this preparation and probably deserves a win at black type level. Look for this one to be difficult to hold out.

Eckstein (5) is one of my favourite horses. Trained in NSW by Kurt Goldman she will be ridden by Blake Shinn who comes off another winning treble on the Gold Coast on Wednesday. He has based himself in Queensland for the Carnival and has been riding in sensational form. How about the ride on Tyzone last weekend – SUPERB!

Now back to this mare. She has had 6 weeks off since her last run – a recent barrier trial and she has performed well in the past first up. This weekend she is $31 and she does seem to appear at long odds and can get under many punters guards early in her preparations. I like her to be a solid rough chance in this race this weekend.

Sexy Eyes (6) is third up - she has two wins from three starts when she is third up. Forgive the run in the Silk Stocking on the heavy track where she was never comfortable in the going and she was galloped on during the race. Look for her to run well here.

Selections: 4-8-5-2 rough chance 6

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Race 5 The Lord Mayors Cup (Group 3)

Well the past several years the previous Lord Mayor Graham Quirk has turned up and I have managed to get a few photos with him. My personal challenge is to meet the new Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner and snag a photo with him!

At set weights it really brings the field together and it looks tough to find a winner.

Tom Melbourne (1) is the perineal place getter. Can he break through this weekend – or will he find one better again to knock him off? Blake Shinn reunites with him here. Surely, he must be difficult to beat over the mile here.

However, in saying that a roughie may be hidden in here and may knock the favourite off. Watch out for the Matthew Dunn Racing Sovereign Nation (6). Forget the last run in the Prime Minister’s Cup at the Gold Coast – he is useless in the wet and struck a heavy track but still managed to run fifth beaten just four lengths. He goes well third up and will appreciate the mile and the big open Eagle Farm track. I think I may just have a sneaky few dollars on him each way at $31. Jeff Lloyd has been booked for the ride.

Godolphin has another runner coming up here after a Scone run. Duca Valentinois (7) will be ridden by James McDonald. He has drawn barrier 17, however, I am not too concerned as he does like to settle back in the field. In saying that they may not bring him into the race as there is no real speed other than the favourite Tom Melbourne (1) in the race that I can see. If Shinn gets away with the lead – cheap sectionals – the other runners may find it tough to make ground late. This runner does possess a decent sprint and has won three times third up.

Le Juge (5) is the stable mate of Tom Melbourne (1) and has been in sensational form since coming to Queensland. In fact, he has won seven times from ten starts. Robbie Fradd has ridden him to six of these wins. Last start he looked in a hopeless position in the Chairman’s Handicap (Group 3 – 2000 metres) and he took the short way home along the rail and saluted!

Ciaron Maher & David Eustace combined for their first Group 1 winner in the Doomben Cup last weekend with Kenedna. They have Lite’N In My Veins (4) in this race coming off a restricted grade win at Morphettville. Jamie Lee Kah rides him.

Order Again (12) has had some support in the early markets – he loves this track and maybe is a knockout chance for trainer Brian Smith.

Selections: 1-6-7-5 rough chances 4 & 12

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Race 6 BRC Sire’s Produce (Group 2)

Accession (1) was gallant in defeat at the Gold Coast first up. He looked like he may have needed the run – but then again, he did have to deal with a bog heavy track first up. Either way the run was full of merit. He has had three weeks to get over that run and will be ready to show his best here.

Gem Of Scotland (11) has drawn wide again this weekend. She resumed last week with a barnstorming effort to only just miss out from scoring on the line – one stride after the post she was in front. The thing I like about the run was she was able to settle back in the field and come home super-fast. Previously to this she had been ridden in front.

She showed her diversity and nearly kept her undefeated record intact last weekend. Jimmy Orman retains the ride this weekend and I expect him to probably get her in midfield with some cover and with the wide-open Eagle Farm track bring her to the outside and let her come home hard and run down the leaders. It was a great run last weekend – it is hard to separate her and Accession this weekend.

Strasbourg (2) and Czarson (3) dead heated for second last start at Doomben over 1200 metres when they were beaten by Dubious. Strasbourg (2) was unlucky and could not get a clear run at them in the straight. That was his first run after a short five week let up. He will have derived plenty of benefit from the run. Kerrin McEvoy stays aboard the Peter & Paul Snowden trained runner. There has been a major gear change as well with the blinkers coming off for this start and winkers going on for the first time.

The other Snowden runner is Creator (4) who comes off a solid win at Hawkesbury over 1300 metres. He finished off the race strongly last time – I can see no reason why he will not be ridden the same way here.

Selections: (1-11)-2-4 rough chance 3

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Race 7 Premier’s Cup (Group 3)

Chris Waller has six runners in this field. It is very open and in years gone by a rough result normally occurs here.

The Waller camp look like they have a mortgage on the race though except for Luvaluva (7) who backs up after the Doomben Cup from last weekend where she ran a solid fifth. She must have done well after the run as John Sargent would not back her up. Tommy Berry has been booked for the ride. Back from WFA conditions to quality and handicap conditions she does get into the race quite nicely and must be respected.

The Lord Mayor (5) is a Waller runner who has won his past two starts emphatically. His run in the Gold Coast Cup over 2400 metres was awesome. I think that he will be difficult to beat again this weekend. There are not many stayers that can hold their form – let’s hope he breaks that mould. James McDonald stays in the saddle. He has a 100% strike rate on him with three rides for three wins!

Tumultuous (6) will appreciate the step up to this distance as well – he has three wins and two placings over 2200 metres. Robbie Fradd will be throwing everything at him in the straight if he can get to the outside of the field and sprint. His best efforts are when he can get clear running and clear space.

Another Waller runner is Haripour (2) who has been sent out favourite in his past two starts and on face value been disappointing. Blake Shinn has been engaged this weekend – maybe he can improve his performance and effort.

Igraine (11) ran a fortnight ago at Doomben and was run down late by Le Juge (Race 5 – 5). I thought she may have just peaked on her run that day – maybe she has subsequently taken benefit from the run and will be in the finish again this weekend.

Tangled (14) comes out of the same race as Igraine (11). He battled on well and has a resounding third up record. Another rough chance.

Selections: 5-7-6-2 rough chances 11 & 14

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Race 8 Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1)

A capacity field of 18 this year for the race - probably a precursor to the quality and size of the field that will greet us in a few weeks for the feature race of the Carnival – The Stradbroke.

The Doomben 10,000 was a blow out result this year with The Bostonian (2) winning at $41. He backs up here this week after New Zealand trainer Tony Pike was impressed with the track work earlier this week. Michael Cahill has an exemplary record aboard this gelding with four rides in Australia – all in Queensland - for four wins. He has winning form – gets his first look at Eagle Farm – maybe a chance.

Victorem (3) was astonishing first up at Scone in the Ortensia run over 1100 metres. The distance was way too short for him and this Jenny Graham trained gelding looks like he will appreciate the step up in distance this weekend. Ben Looker who has a good association with him comes to Brisbane – I would think that Ben would be “looking” for his first Group 1 winner here. At WFA conditions I am not too sure how he will go, but I think he will be storming home. I think he will be an ideal Stradbroke chance if he heads that way with his preparation.

Godolphin and James Cummings have left no stone unturned here with three runners nominated. I think all three have genuine claims in the race. Let’s review them in race book order. The first one is Trekking (6) with Kerrin McEvoy aboard. This gelding has resumed winning his past two starts.

His latest win at Scone in the Luskin Star over 1300 metres was noteworthy. He got to the outside and stormed home from just off the speed and made mincemeat of the opposition. He is a runner who despises wet tracks – this weekend he will get a firm surface and will be right in this race from a nice barrier.

His stable mate Home of the Brave (7) I originally thought was a genuine chance – then he drew barrier 17. He resumed in the Hall Mark at Randwick where Trekking (6) beat him narrowly. He led on that occasion and has a slight favour in the weights for the narrow defeat. He barrier trialled a fortnight ago and that was enough for me to suggest that he is a genuine chance here.

Tommy Berry will need to have some unique tactics here this weekend from the wide barrier, however, I do believe this runner is better ridden off the speed and allowed to settle. He should be able to get back this weekend and make a last ditch run at them in the straight. If he had not have drawn so wide he would have been in my top three selections.

The last of the Godolphin runners is Encryption (11) – a lightly raced Lonhro colt who I have always had an opinion of. He has drawn well in barrier 4 – Corey Brown will take the ride. He has resumed and raced in Group 1 races both in Victoria and NSW. He has had a six-week let up since his defeat in the Arrowfield Sprint (Group 2) where I thought he did not have the best of luck in the straight and may have been considered a touch unlucky. Since then he has had two solid barrier trials and I really do think that he will be thereabouts when the judge calls a halt to the race.

A sea of blue could well be seen crossing the finish line in this race if they get any luck in running!

Prompt Response (10) is trained by Chris Waller. This runner has had three consecutive races in Group 1 events. He has faced some tough opposition including Winx and Kenedna. The form around this mare suggests that she will not be out of place in this field. She has had six weeks since her last run – a barrier trial on 13 May looked to be ordinary but I think she worked to the line very well and had plenty left in the tank.

She has drawn well in barrier 7 and the local South African Robbie Fradd has been entrusted with the ride this weekend. I think if he wins this race it could be his first Group 1 winner he would have ridden in Australia. I really like the form of this runner leading up to this race and that is why I have her on top. I did have a sneaky bet on her when the markets were posted on Wednesday at the ridiculous odds of $21. Since then there has been some support and she has firmed into $14. She does not win too often but she will be competitive.

I Am Excited (12) is trained by David Pfieffer and comes off a win in the Victory Stakes WFA (Group 2) here a month ago. Since then she has won a barrier trial at Warwick Farm. Blake Shinn remains aboard her this weekend. That run and then the barrier trial was both exceptional. She gets in well this weekend and Shinn is riding with supreme confidence now. She must be respected.

Irithea (15) is a Bjorn Baker Racing runner. She won the Hawkesbury Crown (Group 3) when she led all the way. She has drawn barrier 3 and this gives local jockey and good bloke Jimmy Orman the opportunity to sit in behind the speed or lead on her. She has been kept ticking over with that win with a solid barrier trial win at Rosehill on 13 May. If she can salute it would be Orman’s first Group 1 winner!

You know what that means – he must get up on WINNO’s shoulders to celebrate! I think the last time he rode a Group winner here I was not ready for him to jump on me and I took a tumble (oh the shame of it as well as Graham Potter snapped the series of events). Good luck mate!

Finally – it seems I have tipped half the field here – you must respect the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace two-year-old Dubious (18). He is only a two-year-old taking on the seasoned horses here but this stable has had an exciting and dominating impact on the Brisbane Racing Winter Carnival so far – can their success continue this weekend?

He does like this track but I am not too certain where they will ride him this weekend – maybe with the light weight they may go forward and try and run them into the ground. Nikita Beriman rides.

Selections: 10-6-11-12 rough chances 7, 15 & 18

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Race 9 Fred Best Classic (Group 3)

Pohutukawa (14) was unlucky in the Surround Stakes (Group 1) when she could not get a run at them in the final 150 metres. She then went to Kembla Grange and was sent out a short-priced favourite and won the Group 3 race. She did not handle the heavy track and the 2000 metres of the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes last start. Overlook that run.

I am expecting her to strip fresh after an eight-week spell and a recent barrier trial – she will be difficult to beat here this weekend first up. I grabbed some of the $10 on offer on Wednesday – she is now into $7.50 in some markets. She will carry the Godolphin blue colours into the last race and may cap off a big day for James Cummings!

Military Zone (2) is trained by Peter and Paul Snowden Racing with James McDonald to ride him this weekend. His last run in the Scone Guineas was solid but, to be fair, he had every chance to run down and beat the winner Wild Planet who was rated in front to perfection by Tommy Berry. There has been some support for this runner in the markets firming from $6 to $4.20.

The stable mate is Signore Fox (5) who also raced in the Scone Guineas and got too far back in the filed on that occasion. He did manage to work home strongly. Look for him to be placed a little closer this weekend – I don’t think the race tempo suited him at Scone – so it may pay to overlook that run.

Zoutori (4) was been sensationally backed as well – firming from $9 to $4.80 since the markets have opened earlier in the week. He is a Victorian runner trained by Matthew Ellerton & Simon Zahra and will be ridden by the Queensland inform jockey Michael Cahill this weekend. He comes off a hat trick of wins in Victoria where he has started favourite in all three starts.

That winning form must be respected although I am not convinced that he has been racing in the quality of horses that he meets this weekend. His last win at Caulfield was soft in the end – so he does come into this race without a real gut busting run.

Tony Gollan comes to the last race looking to book end the program with his runner Vega One (6). He raced in the QLD Day (Listed) race last start and had the race run to suit him. The speed was on whilst he sat just off them and smoked his pipe before Blake Shinn unleashed him at the 200-metre mark and he stormed away for a solid win.

This weekend Jeff Lloyd takes over the reins and he has drawn well enough again to be competitive this weekend. I am just not too sure how the form for that race will pan out in the coming weeks – the runner up Multaja (Godolphin runner) missed the start and got too far back – there were plenty of excuses – whilst the Gollan runner “made hay whilst the sun shined”.

Blake Shinn has been booked to ride the New Zealand runner Vigor Winner (9) who debuts in Queensland this weekend for trainer Lauren Brennan. He has not fared well at the barrier draw being allocated barrier 15. He will need some luck from out there. He comes off a Group 2 and Group 3 run in New Zealand. The last race was the Wellington Guineas (Group 3) where he posted a good victory. Not sure how he has travelled or how he well he will appreciate the firm track this week at Eagle Farm as all three wins have been on soft tracks.

Selections: 14-2-4-5 rough chance 6 & 9

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Jockey’s Challenge

Looks like a NSW jockey domination again this weekend. James McDonald, Corey Brown and Kerrin McEvoy all look to have a solid book of rides. Local jockey Robbie Fradd could cause an upset if he gets any luck! I think I may settle on James McDonald for a narrow win over his NSW colleague Kerrin McEvoy.

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)

8,9,10,16 / 2,5,8 / 4,5,8 / 1,5,6,7 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

8,9 / 2,5 / 4,8 / 1,6 - cost is $16 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,2,4,11 / 2,5,6,7 / 6,7,10,11,12 / 2,4,5,6,14 - cost is $400 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

1,11 / 5,6,7 / 6,10,11 / 2,4,14 - cost is $54 to $1

Treble (races 8 to 10)

2,5,6,7 / 6,7,10,11,12 / 2,4,5,6,14 - cost is $100 to $1

WINNO V FLEMO

I beat FLEMO in our tipping competition last weekend thanks to my special – “Tyzone.” We both tipped some winners, so it wasn’t a bad weekend for those who followed us! Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes or scratchings!

Good luck and good punting